why do sampson's players not make it in the NBA?

[PDXsooner]

ryan minor, nate erdmann, corey brewer, ace mcghee, hollis price...there have been some great players under sampson, but why do none of them make it in the nba?

najera is the only mainstay and humphrey played for a while, even though he transfered.

any theories?

[okienole3]

They aren't NBA type players.

[PDXsooner]

looking for a little more analysis.

mcghee was a little undersized for the post, but i did think price, albeit small, would have been given a shot. the kid was savvy and could score. good leader, too.

[MojoRisen]

Ryan Minor- could have- didn't he sign for Baseball in lui- much better money and a better chance to excel- he started for Baltimore one year.

[PDXsooner]

i think minor went from potential lottery pick after his junior year to 2nd-round pick after a disappointing senior year, and never played in the NBA

[MojoRisen]

He definitely went the baseball route- I think it was way more money than NBA rookie cap and league min.

[MiccoMacey]

Ryan played for the Baltimore Orioles and is the answer to the trivia question: Who started in lieu of Cal Ripken to end the streak?

[the_ouskull]

The main reason...?

They're not NBA-caliber talent. Period. Take someone like Minor. He didn't handle well enough to be a 3 or 2, and he wasn't big enough to be a 4. He also didn't have NBA range on his shot. He was Wally Szerbiak without the jumper, which is Wally's game, basically.

Take someone like Corey Brewer. He didn't shoot well enough, although he was a good defender, and relatively athletic, he just got unlucky and came out at the same time as the lockout. He never stuck after that, even though he was in Heat camp at the time of the lockout.

Ace Mc? Same as Minor, only he's not NEARLY skilled enough to be a 3, but he's got 3 size... he's not nearly big enough to be a 4. Most of Kelvin's really good players have been "tweeners," which is the Corleone kiss of death in the NBA.

Price...? Great shot, but has trouble getting his own shot off, and never proved that he could run an NBA offense. He's not nearly athletic enough to be a 2 in the NBA, and he couldn't guard even some of the worst 2's, much less play it, once again, due to his size. He was a college shooting guard and was NOT a pro 1, which he would have had to have been.

Basically, Kelvin gets the most out of players at the college level, but their skills don't translate well to the NBA. Eddie, basically, got lucky, and never stopped working hard. It just goes to show you that you don't have to have an offensive game in the NBA. The NBA is all about defense, which is yet another reason... the only decent one-on-one defender of the group mentioned was Brewer. Kelvin gets good college defenders, and they play even better TEAM defense, but they're NOT NBA caliber... they're not NBA sized, or NBA athletic, and rarely have the physical skills to BECOME NBA ready... which is why they get shots, but don't stick.

Did that help any?

the_ouskull

[MiccoMacey]

Did that help any?

the_ouskull

Uhhh...all except the part with the numbers.

1,2,3,4,5...that's some kind of weird rating scheme you got.

BTW, Price is a 1, as in he's my #1 favorite OU player of all-time.

:D

[Jay C. Upchurch]

The main reason Aaron McGhee didn't get a real shot in the NBA was because he was diagnosed with a degenerative back problem. No team was willing to risk it.

[Paperclip]

They don't make it because Kelvin is a great coach.

[jk the sooner fan]

Ryan Minor had this crazy notion he could hit a major league curveball.......

[PDXsooner]

ouskull- nice one, that was it in a nutshell. i agree with you -- i was more curious to gauge whether OU fans think these guys were good enough. i did, however, think hollis p. had a shot...

[Big Red Ron]

ouskull- nice one, that was it in a nutshell. i agree with you -- i was more curious to gauge whether OU fans think these guys were good enough. i did, however, think hollis p. had a shot...The only way Hollis plays in the NBA is at PG. Sadly Kelvin played him at the two and he has had to play in europe to learn the PG position. He is doing very well there. An all star last year for a french club and this year for a German club.

http://www.24sec.net/article.asp?index=3012

[Boomer.....]

Oddly enough, Taj was looking like a lottery pick at the beginning of the season but is fading fast. He should make it into the NBA, but is not performing like he was expected to.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I never thought Gray was lottery pick material. Maybe early second round. He is probably late second round if at all now. Other than Najera I think the player that probably had the best shot was Brewer. When he played I thought Nolan Johnson had a shot.

NBA players are not a dime a dozen though and between players that go straight from high school or Euro players there are probably only 15 or so college players each year that are drafted and even make a roster. So it is a little suprising we don't have 2 or maybe 3 alumni playing right now but I wouldn't have expected more than that.

[NickZeppelin]

Corey Brewer probably had the best shot. But I think he strike hurt him a bit and he was just left in the backburner. NBA in the 90's was just looking for athletes. That's why guys like Kwame Brown and Olowakandi got drafted. Eduardo has had a better career then either of those 2 yet Eddie was a 2nd round draft pick by Houston.

Now they are going a bit back to looking for basketball players. Partly because HS players aren't in the draft anymore. But it's still athletic ability first. Taj Gray may be a first round pick but what OU fan believes he should be?

[Frozen Sooner]

The only way Hollis plays in the NBA is at PG. Sadly Kelvin played him at the two and he has had to play in europe to learn the PG position. He is doing very well there. An all star last year for a french club and this year for a German club.

http://www.24sec.net/article.asp?index=3012


Kelvin played him at the point his freshman and sophomore years. He wasn't all that great at it. You may have heard of this guy Quannas White who took over the point when Hollis was a junior. Sadly, Hollis' handles weren't that great for a 1. Hollis HAS gotten a shot in the NBA, he just hasn't stuck with a team.

Minor got a shot in the NBA and was drafted by the 76ers in the second round. Got cut in training camp IIRC.

[NormanPride]

I don't know why people think Taj will translate to the next level... He's too small to be a 4, and he doesn't have a jump shot... He's not beefy enough to make up for his lack of height in the post... Heck, look at Collison. He's pretty much the same build as Collison, but doesn't have the shot.

[NickZeppelin]

I agree he shouldn't be in the NBA. But he's athletic and can jump out of the roof and the NBA loves those things. If he ends the season averaging 15 a game which he probably will and then in the NBA combines in Chicago he will jump out of the gym and have his long arm length and aw the scouts and he'll move right back up the draft board and be drafed around the 18-20 range. I wouldn't be shocked if that's about where the Hornets are btw.

[Big Red Ron]

Kelvin played him at the point his freshman and sophomore years. He wasn't all that great at it. You may have heard of this guy Quannas White who took over the point when Hollis was a junior. Sadly, Hollis' handles weren't that great for a 1.Yeah, I was here and know the situation well. If Kelvin would have had a better two guard Hollis would have developed into a very nice point guard. He was solid at handling the ball. He moved to the two because he was such a good scorer and we didn't have a two. Had he gotten to develope for two more years who knows...like I said he's a point guard in Europe and doing a damn good job. His NBA dream is not finished.

[Big Red Ron]

Terell Everett has a better shot than Taj, IMHO.

[NickZeppelin]

That's the way it should be. Terrell has a turnover problem but he can pass well and he has almost every shot in the book. And he's got the size to be a point guard. But Taj will get drafted higher.

[Sooner04]

Yeah, I was here and know the situation well. If Kelvin would have had a better two guard Hollis would have developed into a very nice point guard. You think so? I always thought Price's handles were atrocious.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Both observations were probably right. I thought Price was just adequate at playing PG when we had JR Raymond but the team was better with both of them on the floor. For the same reason he was a 2 with Quannas. For a 2 guard though he was a good ball handler and of course dynamite scorer. I think he would have been a very good PG had he played it all 4 years and he obviously is doing well now.

I think Hollis' size works against him in the NBA. Unless you are lightning fast you pretty much need to be 6' 4" to even play PG. Everett, if he was a better ball handler.

[BarryBnds]

They don't make it because Kelvin is a great coach.

I never understood that arguement either.

[NickZeppelin]

I think the arguement is that despite not having NBA talent Kelvin wins everY year. I don't buy that either because I think guys like Price, McGhee, Najera, Humphrey, Gray, Everett, Brewer, Johnson, Erdmann are probably all good enough talents to make the NBA. They just didn't for whatever reasons. Except for Najera and I think Humphrey is hanging around somewhere.

[NormanPride]

How many times have you seen one of our players just create something out of nothing? Everett does it every once in a while. Hollis did it a few times as a senior. Taj almost never does it. That's the big difference between NCAA and NBA level, guys. The NBA isn't looking for good roleplaying BBall smart guys. They're looking for people like Gibson from UT and Rush from KU. Players that will win a 1 on 1 90% of the time.

In the NBA, everyone on your team has to be able to make a play.

[the_ouskull]

Taj Grey's NBA Prospects:

By: the_ouskull

Here's the deal... Does he have the size and athleticism to play in the NBA? Yes, he does... At the 3. (For the uninitated, the '3' means small forward. '1' is point, '5' is center, '2' is shooting guard, '4' is power forward.)

HOWEVER, at the NBA level, there are some other things that are required out of the '3' position. Tell me how many of these are things that Taj not only does well, but does NBA-caliber well...

- A consistant jump shot with 18' range and the ability to catch it and shoot it with no hesitation.
- Ball handling capabilities... not well enough to run an offense, but well enough to allow an offense to run through you.
- The ability to face the basket from 15 - 18 and drive to the hole, spot up shoot, or turn around and post it. (All of these require the aforementioned ball-handling.)
- When posting, the ability to pass well out of the post.
- The ability to move well without the basketball and create scoring opportunities through floor placement, setting good picks, and second-chance opportunities.
- The ability to defend both 4's and, occasionally, 2's... generally on defensive switches, even just for short periods of time. (Keep in mind that, in the NBA this could very well mean Tim Duncan and Allen Iverson... not to mention other 3's, like Paul Pierce.)

Taj Grey has the athleticism to play in the NBA, yes... but he lacks almost every other major category. Now, if he were able to put on 20-30 pounds of muscle, without losing any of his explosiveness, he could play the 4 in the NBA with many fewer problems...

...although he'd still have to work on passing out of the post and his 15' jumper.
...and his defense, specifically his post defense.
...and his rebounding.

Taj is a great college player, or at least he has the potential to be when he's not tiring and / or in foul trouble at the end of games. Taj has a LOT of work to do to stick in the NBA.

...and don't me started on Terrell Everett.

the_ouskull

[NormanPride]

Taj Grey's NBA Prospects:

By: the_ouskull

Here's the deal... Does he have the size and athleticism to play in the NBA? Yes, he does... At the 3. (For the uninitated, the '3' means small forward. '1' is point, '5' is center, '2' is shooting guard, '4' is power forward.)

HOWEVER, at the NBA level, there are some other things that are required out of the '3' position. Tell me how many of these are things that Taj not only does well, but does NBA-caliber well...

- A consistant jump shot with 18' range and the ability to catch it and shoot it with no hesitation.
- Ball handling capabilities... not well enough to run an offense, but well enough to allow an offense to run through you.
- The ability to face the basket from 15 - 18 and drive to the hole, spot up shoot, or turn around and post it. (All of these require the aforementioned ball-handling.)
- When posting, the ability to pass well out of the post.
- The ability to move well without the basketball and create scoring opportunities through floor placement, setting good picks, and second-chance opportunities.
- The ability to defend both 4's and, occasionally, 2's... generally on defensive switches, even just for short periods of time. (Keep in mind that, in the NBA this could very well mean Tim Duncan and Allen Iverson... not to mention other 3's, like Paul Pierce.)

Taj Grey has the athleticism to play in the NBA, yes... but he lacks almost every other major category. Now, if he were able to put on 20-30 pounds of muscle, without losing any of his explosiveness, he could play the 4 in the NBA with many fewer problems...

...although he'd still have to work on passing out of the post and his 15' jumper.
...and his defense, specifically his post defense.
...and his rebounding.

Taj is a great college player, or at least he has the potential to be when he's not tiring and / or in foul trouble at the end of games. Taj has a LOT of work to do to stick in the NBA.

...and don't me started on Terrell Everett.

the_ouskull

To be fair, he could to just ONE of those really well and be a 3 somewhere in the NBA. He'd never really be on a good team or anything (other than a benchwarmer) but he'd still be there. The reason Najera can make it and Taj probably won't is that Najera is about 10000x more BBall savvy and is a lot thicker.

[the_ouskull]

I think the arguement is that despite not having NBA talent Kelvin wins everY year. I don't buy that either because I think guys like Price, McGhee, Najera, Humphrey, Gray, Everett, Brewer, Johnson, Erdmann are probably all good enough talents to make the NBA. They just didn't for whatever reasons. Except for Najera and I think Humphrey is hanging around somewhere.

I'd love to buy that argument, but there's just no substance to it at all.

Of that list, Corey Brewer probably had the best chance (other than Eddie, obviously) of making the NBA, and he was undersized for the 2, didn't shoot well enough, and didn't really handle the ball well enough. He REALLY didn't handle it well enough to play the 1. His NBA prospects lied in the fact that he could defend the 1, 2, and 3 pretty well due to his strength and quickness.

- Price... discussed ad infinitium. Too short to play the 2, couldn't create his own offense, didn't handle well enough to play the 1. Defensive liability.
- McGhee... tweener. Defensive liability, big time.
- Johnson... yeah, right. Lol. Funny. Decent one-on-one player, but no "team concept," and no defense.
- Erdmann... No consistancy, offensively or defensively. Didn't have enough shooting range, wasn't strong enough, couldn't guard NBA 2's and 3's (and barely college...), and didn't handle the ball very well, although he COULD pass it like a madman.
- Humphrey... just because people keep listing him. His offensive skills are college-level, at best and he's just not big enough, doesn't work hard enough (as we all know) and isn't mentally tough enough to be able to play the 4 in the NBA, which is the only position that his limited skills with the ball in his hands could POSSIBLY allow him to attempt, even though he had the athleticism to play the 3. (Sounds like anybody named Taj Grey that we know...?)

...and, finally, because people want to hear it...

- Everett... Lacks NBA range on his shot, decent ball-handler, but would get ripped by NBA point guards at least 1 or 2 times per game due to his high, unprotected dribble. (He's no Magic Johnson...) Passes poorly, especially for his position. (Assist totals nonwithstanding... he has a lot of trouble making the post entry pass, and often times makes too many passes when he's in transition.) No work ethic. Takes absolutely terrible shots at times. Ignorant of the shot clock. Not a good defender, even though his arms should allow him to be. Plays out of position too often, especially on defense, going for steals that his athleticisim won't allow him to make, hurting his team on their defensive rotations. Not a good on-the-ball defender. Lacks strength and stamina, especially late in games. (See also: Turnover ratio, 1st to 2nd half...) Good free-throw shooter, but doesn't get to the line NEARLY often enough. (He'd rather shoot a crazy-assed shot than draw the contact and go to the line, proving my next point.) Lacks the maturity to consistantly run an NBA offense.

Sound about right?

the_ouskull

[the_ouskull]

In response to NP on Taj... Yes, I agree. If he got his jump shot consistant out to 18-20', he could stick on an NBA roster... although they'd still want to bulk him up... and he'd be a 8-9 guy off the bench until he could prove that he was racking up consistant rebounds for the amount of PT he was getting...

the_ouskull

[PDXsooner]

skull- impressive breakdowns and analysis. i don't watch OU enough to know the players like you appear to, but tend to agree with most of your assessments...

[NickZeppelin]

I'd love to buy that argument, but there's just no substance to it at all.

Of that list, Corey Brewer probably had the best chance (other than Eddie, obviously) of making the NBA, and he was undersized for the 2, didn't shoot well enough, and didn't really handle the ball well enough. He REALLY didn't handle it well enough to play the 1. His NBA prospects lied in the fact that he could defend the 1, 2, and 3 pretty well due to his strength and quickness.

- Price... discussed ad infinitium. Too short to play the 2, couldn't create his own offense, didn't handle well enough to play the 1. Defensive liability.
- McGhee... tweener. Defensive liability, big time.
- Johnson... yeah, right. Lol. Funny. Decent one-on-one player, but no "team concept," and no defense.
- Erdmann... No consistancy, offensively or defensively. Didn't have enough shooting range, wasn't strong enough, couldn't guard NBA 2's and 3's (and barely college...), and didn't handle the ball very well, although he COULD pass it like a madman.
- Humphrey... just because people keep listing him. His offensive skills are college-level, at best and he's just not big enough, doesn't work hard enough (as we all know) and isn't mentally tough enough to be able to play the 4 in the NBA, which is the only position that his limited skills with the ball in his hands could POSSIBLY allow him to attempt, even though he had the athleticism to play the 3. (Sounds like anybody named Taj Grey that we know...?)

...and, finally, because people want to hear it...

- Everett... Lacks NBA range on his shot, decent ball-handler, but would get ripped by NBA point guards at least 1 or 2 times per game due to his high, unprotected dribble. (He's no Magic Johnson...) Passes poorly, especially for his position. (Assist totals nonwithstanding... he has a lot of trouble making the post entry pass, and often times makes too many passes when he's in transition.) No work ethic. Takes absolutely terrible shots at times. Ignorant of the shot clock. Not a good defender, even though his arms should allow him to be. Plays out of position too often, especially on defense, going for steals that his athleticisim won't allow him to make, hurting his team on their defensive rotations. Not a good on-the-ball defender. Lacks strength and stamina, especially late in games. (See also: Turnover ratio, 1st to 2nd half...) Good free-throw shooter, but doesn't get to the line NEARLY often enough. (He'd rather shoot a crazy-assed shot than draw the contact and go to the line, proving my next point.) Lacks the maturity to consistantly run an NBA offense.

Sound about right?

the_ouskull

I didn't say those guys were gonna be great NBA players or even good ones or that they should have made it. I just said they were talented enough to make the NBA IMO.

[MI Sooner]

How big is the average NBA PF? Is Taj or was McGhee all that undersized? Aren't both in the 6'9" range, neither being skinny, but neither one built like Karl Malone. Seems like one off-season of lifting would make them an average-size NBA 4.

It's kind of hard for me to tell who plays what anymore anyway. So few guys today have a good back-to-the-basket low-post game, a la McHale or Tim Duncan. Are/were these guys 4s (or even 4/5s)...?

Zach Randolph
Elton Brand
Jermaine O'Neal
Pau Gasol
Carlos Boozer
Ben Wallace
Karl Malone
Charles Barkley

Guys who are 6'9 240 don't seem that out of place on that list to me.

Skull, how easy do you think it is to evaluate whether or not someone has NBA range based on college games? How many NBA range 3s does the average guard take a season? I'd guess that it's under 10. It seems like you'd need to see workouts to see if someone who can knock it down from 20'9" can also make it from 23'. I don't remember what Erdman or Brewer's 3Pt% was, but if a guy shoots over 40%, how do you know he doesn’t have NBA range without seeing a workout?

[NickZeppelin]

Jermaine O'Neal is like 7'0 or 6'11 I believe. The others are 6'10 or under I think.

[Collier11]

From a nba scout on hollis price: I heard this on the sports animal last year sometime, he said(believe it or not on the first part) that hollis price just didnt shoot the ball good enough to play shooting gaurd and couldnt dribble good enough to play the point.
As far as Taj goes, I had a disagreement with someone on this site before but taj is projected as a 1st rd draft pick because he is such a good athlete, here is a synopsis from nbadraft.net..."NBA Comparison: Chris Wilcox

Strengths: Very agile and explosive post player who plays with a high level of energy ... Excels in the open court with his great speed ... Excellent leaper who rebounds the ball well and has the foot speed, arm length and body control to grab rebounds that appear out of range ... Huge wingspan allows him to play bigger than his height ... Works hard and has a great attitude, very coachable ... Good body strength and appears he'll be able to pack on additional weight and strength without any problem ... Keeps it simple offensively with shots around the basket, with a lot of of put backs and ally oops ... Hustle guy, not afraid of diving on the floor or in the stands for loose balls ... Decent passer who can handle pressure and pass out of a double team ...

Weaknesses: Limited offensively, lacks great shooting skills ... His range is poor, and his shot mechanics need work ... Post skills still need improvement, but his athletic ability make him difficult to guard on the college level, he'll need to learn better fundamentals to succeed against similarly athletic players on the next level ... Free throw shooting has improved but he tends to rush his shot, and shoots the ball too far in front of him and without a clean release ... Might be closer to 6-8 than 6-9 ."

[Collier11]

He is not a great basketball player but as we have seen over and over again in the past 10 years or so, the NBA doesnt value good basketball players anymore as much as they do good athletes

[oumartin]

they don't develop while in college is my answer.

[NormanPride]

they don't develop while in college is my answer.

Yeah because Hollis/Quannas/Gilbert/etc never got any better than when they set foot on campus. :rolleyes:

[NickZeppelin]

Najera didn't get any better either.:rolleyes:

[Salt City Sooner]

Nor did McGhee. Sampson almost threw him off the team early in his junior year.

[the_ouskull]

How big is the average NBA PF? Is Taj or was McGhee all that undersized? Aren't both in the 6'9" range, neither being skinny, but neither one built like Karl Malone. Seems like one off-season of lifting would make them an average-size NBA 4.

It's kind of hard for me to tell who plays what anymore anyway. So few guys today have a good back-to-the-basket low-post game, a la McHale or Tim Duncan. Are/were these guys 4s (or even 4/5s)...?

Zach Randolph
Elton Brand
Jermaine O'Neal
Pau Gasol
Carlos Boozer
Ben Wallace
Karl Malone
Charles Barkley

Guys who are 6'9 240 don't seem that out of place on that list to me.

Skull, how easy do you think it is to evaluate whether or not someone has NBA range based on college games? How many NBA range 3s does the average guard take a season? I'd guess that it's under 10. It seems like you'd need to see workouts to see if someone who can knock it down from 20'9" can also make it from 23'. I don't remember what Erdman or Brewer's 3Pt% was, but if a guy shoots over 40%, how do you know he doesn’t have NBA range without seeing a workout?

First of all, the guys you listed are all NBA players... They are all also pretty good present, or past players. In addition, they've already gone through the NBA pre-draft camps. You know, the camps that KILLED Byron (I'm really 6/3 and not 6/9) Houston and others...

Taj isn't a legit 6/8, and Ace wasn't a legit 6/8 either... I'd give Ace 6/6, TOPS. ...and that's probably pushing it. Also, Ace was doughy. Players don't have "a year to workout" because NBA teams will find somebody who is already there... Also, with a year in the gym, your other skills may suffer... like quickness, or timing. But, back to the point, NEITHER of them are a legit 6/9, and the shortest player on your list, Barkley, is one of the greatest 4's of all time at around 6/4... but he was a once-in-a-lifetime player... The rest of those guys have other things, besides size, that Ace and Taj do not...

- Randolph has a very soft touch around the basket, like Ace did, but he's got legit size...
- Elton Brand has incredible footwork, and mutant-long arms... He's probably the closest to Ace's build, but he's just a better player all-around.
- O'Neal is 6/10-6/11 and more athletic than Taj. Plus he's got a MUCH more consistant offensive game, and uses that to conserve defensive energy.
- Pau has 3 point range, and is a legit 7 footer.
- Carlos Boozer... With a TON of work, Taj could become Carlos Boozer... only more athletic and not as good a defender.
- Ben Wallace is only 6/9, but he could play in the NFL with his body. Also, his work ethic is unparalleled. He is in the L solely on his defensive merits, and he is one of the only big men in HISTORY that could change a game without ever even scoring a point. (See also: Bill Russell...)
- Malone and Barkley... The best to ever lace them up. They had unmatched post games, were undeniable rebounders, and, in Malone's case, could pass VERY well for a big man, not to mention shoot the consistant 18'. (Was Malone automatic from the baseline or what...?) Also, they both ran the floor as well as any big man ever has... something neither of our guys can do well...)

Ace's strength's were great for the college game, but he, and Taj, both need a lot of work to be able to even compete at the next level, much less play consistant minutes. ...especially being less than 6/9. (Taj I can't vouch for, but I've MET Ace, and he's barely, if at all, six inches taller than me, and I'm 5/11, 6/0.)

Now, as for the other questions...

Evaluating NBA range is simple... To me, the most important thing to look for when determining NBA range is the angle of the elbow... Are they having to launch the shot, or is it natural for them...? How much arc does their elbow put on the shot? Michael Neal has very natural college range... I don't think he'd be as good a shot from the pro line... The second most important thing is their feet. When they shoot, how much do they jump? Do they drift towards the basket or away? If they're drifting towards, then they don't have the natural range. If they're drifting away, it's just a problem with mechanics that can be fixed with good coaching. Those two are the easiest things for non-coaches to catch, IMHO.

...and, after you determine ALL of this, how quickly does their shot develop? Everett takes about an hour and a half to launch a 3. Neal, while not SLOW, is also not nearly as fast as he'd have to be given his athleticism. Once again, JJ Reddick is the standard. His shot, as money as it already is, is made even better by the fact that he can release it almost effortlessly and faster than anybody should be able to and still maintain HIS level of accuracy.

Also, so you guys know, I'm not trying to sound pompous or arrogant or anything in answering these questions, and I'm certainly not bashing our former Sooners or our present Sooners... I'm just being realistic about their NBA prospects. I love everybody that's ever played here, especially the recent guys, and I would love even more to have half of their natural ability. I don't. ...but I DO know basketball and I love discussing it... I hope I'm helping.

the_ouskull

[the_ouskull]

I read the rest of the thread...

To say that Kelvin doesn't develop players is ridiculous. Next case.

Taj's draft report is pretty accurate... I disagree with the part about his passing. He is NOT a good passer, especially when handling the ball, and when he's posted, he has trouble finding the passing lanes. (This is aided by the fact that so few of our backcourt players cut through the defensive zone without the ball...) ...but until he learns to shoot well, and can prove the he can play a two-man-game with his back to the basket, Taj will not make it to the next level, athletic or not. The And1 guys are athletic too...

the_ouskull

[the_ouskull]

Also, in response to some spek that I got...

The thing about Ace's NBA chance was this... His offensive ability, touch, etc... SHOULD have been enough to get him a shot, even with his defensive liabilities... BUT,

...he's NOT a legit 6/8, so that hurts him on both ends, but even more severely on the offensive end, which is supposed to be his strength. Also, you must consider the fact that, if you have to have a liability in the NBA, coaches would rather it be an offensive one. Not too many people are capable of playing in the NBA at all, but ESPECIALLY defensively. I mean, the And1 guys are great offensive players... but there's more to the game than that.

the_ouskull

[Salt City Sooner]

There were also reports of Ace having a degenerative bone condition of some sort floating around at that time. I don't know if they ever proved true or not, but needless to say, that'll shoo off teams faster than anything.

[PDXsooner]

damn, skull knows his sh!t...

[the_ouskull]

It's just that it's what I want to do, so I have to at least know a little, right? Lol.

..but thank you regardless.

the_ouskull

[MI Sooner]

Skull,

I agree with most or all of your criticisms of Taj and McGhee, but my comments were questioning whether their size or skills hindered/will hinder their chances in the NBA. Granted, if you take the same skill set and athletic ability, more size can never really hurt, so they could only be helped by being bigger. Also, I was going off what I remember McGhee being listed at, not actual height. If he's 6'6", I agree his size holds him back.

It seems like many times, you said that the guys I listed were similar in size, but they were outstanding talents, so they made it. That leads me to believe that a 6'8" - 6'9" guy can play 4 in the NBA. If Taj could pass and knock down the 15-18 footer, no one would call him undersized (if he's really 6'9" 240).

As for allowing someone to work on his body because he's doughy or skinny, doesn't that happen all the time... 5s with skills are drafted all the time with the expectation that they add some muscle, although a lot of those guys are 18-20, not 22. Randolph and Barkley we're big time fatties in college. I think the bottom line is if you're 6'8" and want to play in the NBA, you need outstanding skills or Wallace-like intensity and work-ethic. If you're 7'0", you can be more of a stiff. If you're 6'6" or under and want to play down low, the name on the back of your jersey better read "Barkley."

[the_ouskull]

If Taj could pass, handle the ball better (although those two, for his position(s) are virtually the same, and consistantly (meaning 50%) knock down the open 18 footer, then yes, he'd be an NBA lock, even at 6/6, given his athleticism... they'd just play him as a post 3 until he learned better perimeter defense.

Also, Randolph only played one (maybe two) years at MSU, and was drafted as a project by a Portland team which has since then shown a penchant for drafting projects (see also, Miles, Darius; Telfair, Sebastian) and Barkley was a physical freak, not to mention the fact that he was one of the best players in the SEC, and DOMINATED his Olympic tryout before being cut, along with John Stockton, by none other than Bobby Knight. Yes, they were "fatties," but they were fatties with unmatched skill sets in other areas. Both Taj and Ace's skill sets are run-of-the-mill when being compared with their deficiences.

Example: My NBA prospects...

Fair handle. Decent jumper. Good knowledge of the game. Nothing else could even remotely be considered a positive.

For me to have even the most remote, Dumb and Dumber of shots in the NBA, I would have to hit every single shot I ever attempted when I was open. (see also, Hodges, Craig) This is not happening... Ever...

For Taj, for example, to have a better shot, he will have to show that he excels in a particular area that other players do not excel in. This is to counteract his weaknesses. The rub is this: he's got to do this, while also working on his "areas of opportunity" and still try to learn an NBA playbook, etc...

For most NBA coaches, they'd rather either bring in a vet, or a guy that's 19 years old and will be a sponge for a few years...

I would LOVE for Taj to make the NBA, I'm just saying that I'm not SEEING it. That's all. I hope like Hell I'm wrong.

the_ouskull

[OUmillenium]

they don't develop while in college is my answer.

I second that...

[OUmillenium]

First of all, the guys you listed are all NBA players... They are all also pretty good present, or past players. In addition, they've already gone through the NBA pre-draft camps. You know, the camps that KILLED Byron (I'm really 6/3 and not 6/9) Houston and others...

Taj isn't a legit 6/8, and Ace wasn't a legit 6/8 either... I'd give Ace 6/6, TOPS. ...and that's probably pushing it. Also, Ace was doughy. Players don't have "a year to workout" because NBA teams will find somebody who is already there... Also, with a year in the gym, your other skills may suffer... like quickness, or timing. But, back to the point, NEITHER of them are a legit 6/9, and the shortest player on your list, Barkley, is one of the greatest 4's of all time at around 6/4... but he was a once-in-a-lifetime player... The rest of those guys have other things, besides size, that Ace and Taj do not...

- Randolph has a very soft touch around the basket, like Ace did, but he's got legit size...
- Elton Brand has incredible footwork, and mutant-long arms... He's probably the closest to Ace's build, but he's just a better player all-around.
- O'Neal is 6/10-6/11 and more athletic than Taj. Plus he's got a MUCH more consistant offensive game, and uses that to conserve defensive energy.
- Pau has 3 point range, and is a legit 7 footer.
- Carlos Boozer... With a TON of work, Taj could become Carlos Boozer... only more athletic and not as good a defender.
- Ben Wallace is only 6/9, but he could play in the NFL with his body. Also, his work ethic is unparalleled. He is in the L solely on his defensive merits, and he is one of the only big men in HISTORY that could change a game without ever even scoring a point. (See also: Bill Russell...)
- Malone and Barkley... The best to ever lace them up. They had unmatched post games, were undeniable rebounders, and, in Malone's case, could pass VERY well for a big man, not to mention shoot the consistant 18'. (Was Malone automatic from the baseline or what...?) Also, they both ran the floor as well as any big man ever has... something neither of our guys can do well...)

Ace's strength's were great for the college game, but he, and Taj, both need a lot of work to be able to even compete at the next level, much less play consistant minutes. ...especially being less than 6/9. (Taj I can't vouch for, but I've MET Ace, and he's barely, if at all, six inches taller than me, and I'm 5/11, 6/0.)

Now, as for the other questions...

Evaluating NBA range is simple... To me, the most important thing to look for when determining NBA range is the angle of the elbow... Are they having to launch the shot, or is it natural for them...? How much arc does their elbow put on the shot? Michael Neal has very natural college range... I don't think he'd be as good a shot from the pro line... The second most important thing is their feet. When they shoot, how much do they jump? Do they drift towards the basket or away? If they're drifting towards, then they don't have the natural range. If they're drifting away, it's just a problem with mechanics that can be fixed with good coaching. Those two are the easiest things for non-coaches to catch, IMHO.

...and, after you determine ALL of this, how quickly does their shot develop? Everett takes about an hour and a half to launch a 3. Neal, while not SLOW, is also not nearly as fast as he'd have to be given his athleticism. Once again, JJ Reddick is the standard. His shot, as money as it already is, is made even better by the fact that he can release it almost effortlessly and faster than anybody should be able to and still maintain HIS level of accuracy.

Also, so you guys know, I'm not trying to sound pompous or arrogant or anything in answering these questions, and I'm certainly not bashing our former Sooners or our present Sooners... I'm just being realistic about their NBA prospects. I love everybody that's ever played here, especially the recent guys, and I would love even more to have half of their natural ability. I don't. ...but I DO know basketball and I love discussing it... I hope I'm helping.

the_ouskull

Redick is a jumpshooter in that he can elevate, maintain good form, and shoot over opponents...off the dribble as well. Ryan Minor was the last one of these we have seen in Soonerland.

[PDXsooner]

It's just that it's what I want to do, so I have to at least know a little, right? Lol.

..but thank you regardless.

the_ouskull

what is it you want to do?