Big Red Ron
1/16/2006, 11:28 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/5233702 To go or not to go.
Tis nobler to return to school for a senior season than to leave early and get taken late. Even so, it's impossible to tell a legitimate pro prospect not to come out early after what happened to Willis McGahee in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl or Wisconsin's Joe Thomas in this year's Capital One Bowl.
If you win the lottery, you don't sit on the ticket for a year. Some of these players are going to be instant millionaires while others are making a big mistake.
My rule of thumb for pro prospects is this: If your game relies purely on speed, come out. Every football player needs speed to some degree, but a receiver, running back and defensive back only has so many years of blazing speed in them. Any slippage in that top gear, and you're out of the league. Running backs can only take so many shots and should come out as soon as humanly possible. Everyone else should stay in school unless they're a sure-fire first or second round pick. Here are the early entries from D-I.
Darnell Bing, S USC
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Many were thinking he was ready for the pros as a freshman. He has size, speed and hitting ability.
Cornell Brockington, RB Connecticut
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? With his role diminished in the offense thanks to the return of Terry Caulley, he's leaving early. He's a big back with good quickness.
Reggie Bush, RB USC
Projected: 1st pick overall
Good or bad move? He would've been the first running back taken in the 2005 Draft.
Brian Calhoun, RB Wisconsin
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? His stock will never be higher after his great performance against Auburn. He showed durability after carrying the Badger offense. It's asking a lot be injury free in another 350+ touch season.
Antonio Cromartie, CB Florida State
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? He has to prove he's 100% healthy, but he would've likely been a top ten pick if he never had the knee injury.
Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? In a loaded year for tight ends, Davis should be the first one taken. He's a field stretching receiver playing tight end.
Maurice Drew, RB UCLA
Projected: 4th to 5th round
Good or bad move? Size will be an issue, but ticky-tack injury history will be an even bigger problem. He'll be drafted as a kick returner and change-of-pace back.
Ray Edwards, DE Purdue
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? He could quickly rise into the first round with the right workouts. His tremendously disappointing junior year will quickly be forgotten about with a few good workouts.
Anthony Fasano, TE Notre Dame
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? Great size, good speed and excellent hands, but this is a fantastic year for tight ends. There might be at least seven tight ends who'll go before him.
Charles Gordon, WR/CB Kansas
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? If Justin Miller can be a first round pick, then so can Gordon. He didn't have the All-America season expected of him this year, but that's because no one threw at him.
Willie Hall, OT MTSU
Projected: 5th round
Good or bad move? He has the measurables at 6-6 and 302 pounds, and he has improved in each of the last three seasons. He'll be a solid career backup.
Devin Hester, WR/CB Miami
Projected: 1st round to early 2nd round
Good or bad move? He'll fall under the category of too-good-to-pass-up, but no one really has a clue of what to do with him. Is he a corner that needs a ton of work, or is he a receiver that hasn't reached his potential? At the very least, he's a scary-good kick return prospect.
Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio State
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? It'll be an upset if he's not the first receiver taken. He might not be Randy Moss/Terrell Owens-sized, but he can fly. He's a bigger Steve Smith.
Chad Jackson, WR Florida
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? Possibly the best combination of size and speed among the receiving prospects, Jackson will be a steal midway through the second round, and could replace Derek Hagan as the second receiver taken behind Santonio Holmes.
Omar Jacobs, QB Bowling Green
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? There was talk before the season of Jacobs being on the verge of being a better pro prospect than Matt Leinart. He was dinged up and didn't put up the numbers he did in 2004, but he still rocked when healthy. He needs work on his throwing motion and the scouts have cooled on his overall skills, but he's accurate enough to get at least a few offensive coordinators excited about his potential.
Johnathan Joseph, CB South Carolina
Projected: late first day to early second day
Good or bad move? He could've used another year to build a little more buzz. This is a decent year for corners and he could get lost in the shuffle.
Winston Justice, OT USC
Projected: 1st round to early 2nd round
Good or bad move? He's a near lock to go in the first round, likely the 20-25 range. Only some off-the-field issues from 2004 are a concern.
Brandon Kirsch, QB Purdue
Projected: Undrafted
Good or bad move? Unless he plans on becoming a safety, he'll be an undrafted, but quickly picked up, free-agent.
Greg Lee, WR Pitt
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? He has the size and the big-play capability, and he has the potential to grow into an early second round pick if he times well. Expect his physical style to make him a late first-day selection.
Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
Projected: First round
Good or bad move? His speed might put him in the top 15. He'll likely be the third back taken behind Reggie Bush and DeAngelo Williams.
Richard Marshall, CB Fresno State
Projected: 4th round
Good or bad move? He'll slide because of his size, but he'll move into the first day if his 4.4 speed becomes 4.38 speed in workouts. He's tough and a nice ball-hawker.
Derrick Martin, CB Wyoming
Projected: late first day
Good or bad move? He's a solid tackler with NFL speed. He'll make a roster.
Fred Matua, OG USC
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? He's leaving early to help out his family. He was one of the Pac 10's best run blockers.
John McCargo, DT NC State
Projected: late first day
Good or bad move? Were the NC State ends productive because of McCargo, or vice versa? He's around 300 pounds, but he's not a huge space-eater. He could've benefited from another year.
Stanley McClover, DE Auburn
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? Size is the issue. He needs to gain about 10-15 more pounds, but there's no questioning his pass rushing skills or his speed. If someone believes he'll get bigger and won't lose his quickness, he might be an early second rounder.
Derek Morris, OT NC State
Projected: Late first day, early second day
Good or bad move? Size alone, at 6-5, 340 pounds, will get him drafted, but where he gets taken depends on agility drills. Can he handle NFL speed rushers?
Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
Projected: Top ten pick
Good or bad move? The first tackle off the board. He could go top five.
Kai Parham, LB Virginia
Projected: 2nd round to late 3rd round
Good or bad move? While he has the size, quickness and production, he doesn't have the tremendous athleticism needed to be a first rounder. Even so, he should be around the fifth linebacker taken. It'll all be up to the combine numbers.
Bernard Pollard, S Purdue
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? In a thin year for safeties, he'll likely find his way into the second round because of his hitting ability. He's questionable at best in pass coverage.
Leonard Pope, TE Georgia
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Pope is too big and too good a receiver to fall out of the first round.
Drouzon Quillen, WR UL Monroe
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? It's all about the 40 time. At 6-6 and 215 pounds, he's a physical receiver who was able to hit the home run, but he has to time out at no slower than 4.6. Anything worse pushes him to a late flier on the second day.
Ko Simpson, S South Carolina
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? Think a bigger Troy Polamalu without the cool hair. Some GM will be drooling over getting the big-hitting ball-hawk in the second round.
Ernie Sims, LB Florida State
Projected: Late first to 2nd round
Good or bad move? Some think he was ready as a freshman. He isn't huge, but his speed makes him an intriguing prospect.
D.J. Smith, WR Idaho
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? It's a down year for receivers, so the second-team All-WAC performer can move into the third or fourth round with an impressive combine.
Rob Smith, G Tennessee
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? He has the size and the athleticism, but he has to prove he's really over all the little injuries over the years. He's a strong run blocker.
Stephen Tulloch, LB NC State
Projected: mid-to-late first day
Good or bad move? All question marks about his shoulder appeared answered this year. He's a tremendous tackler with great range and instincts. He can find his way into the second round if someone becomes enamored with his tackling skills.
Demetris Summers, RB South Carolina
Projected: 6th round to undrafted
Good or bad move? He'll stick with a team for at least a year, likely as a free-agent. He has decent talent and good speed, but off-the-field questions will be a problem.
Marcus Vick, QB Virginia Tech
Projected: late 3rd round to early second day
Good or bad move? Think Adrian McPherson. Someone will be ecstatic to groom him for a few years as a quarterback of the future.
Dee Webb, CB Florida
Projected: late 2nd to early 4th round
Good or bad move? He isn't all that big, but he's a sure-tackling corner with nice ball skills. He's a second rounder with a tremendous combine.
LenDale White, RB USC
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? The top 15 is a real possibility if his 40 time is under 4.5. Don't be shocked if some scouts like him better as a pure running back than Mr. Heisman.
Donte Whitner, S Ohio State
Projected: 3rd to 5th round
Good or bad move? He needs work. He could've used another year to build more of a buzz. He would've been one of the Big Ten's best defenders in 2006.
Mario Williams, DE NC State
Projected: Top 15
Good or bad move? Some think he would've been a first rounder as a freshman.
Ashton Youboty, CB Ohio State
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? With size, speed and ball-hawking skills, he could move up into the first round with a great workout. Vince Young, QB Texas
Projected: Top five pick
Good or bad move? He might be the future of the NFL. Think Michael Vick if he was a quarterback.:D
Tis nobler to return to school for a senior season than to leave early and get taken late. Even so, it's impossible to tell a legitimate pro prospect not to come out early after what happened to Willis McGahee in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl or Wisconsin's Joe Thomas in this year's Capital One Bowl.
If you win the lottery, you don't sit on the ticket for a year. Some of these players are going to be instant millionaires while others are making a big mistake.
My rule of thumb for pro prospects is this: If your game relies purely on speed, come out. Every football player needs speed to some degree, but a receiver, running back and defensive back only has so many years of blazing speed in them. Any slippage in that top gear, and you're out of the league. Running backs can only take so many shots and should come out as soon as humanly possible. Everyone else should stay in school unless they're a sure-fire first or second round pick. Here are the early entries from D-I.
Darnell Bing, S USC
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Many were thinking he was ready for the pros as a freshman. He has size, speed and hitting ability.
Cornell Brockington, RB Connecticut
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? With his role diminished in the offense thanks to the return of Terry Caulley, he's leaving early. He's a big back with good quickness.
Reggie Bush, RB USC
Projected: 1st pick overall
Good or bad move? He would've been the first running back taken in the 2005 Draft.
Brian Calhoun, RB Wisconsin
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? His stock will never be higher after his great performance against Auburn. He showed durability after carrying the Badger offense. It's asking a lot be injury free in another 350+ touch season.
Antonio Cromartie, CB Florida State
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? He has to prove he's 100% healthy, but he would've likely been a top ten pick if he never had the knee injury.
Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? In a loaded year for tight ends, Davis should be the first one taken. He's a field stretching receiver playing tight end.
Maurice Drew, RB UCLA
Projected: 4th to 5th round
Good or bad move? Size will be an issue, but ticky-tack injury history will be an even bigger problem. He'll be drafted as a kick returner and change-of-pace back.
Ray Edwards, DE Purdue
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? He could quickly rise into the first round with the right workouts. His tremendously disappointing junior year will quickly be forgotten about with a few good workouts.
Anthony Fasano, TE Notre Dame
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? Great size, good speed and excellent hands, but this is a fantastic year for tight ends. There might be at least seven tight ends who'll go before him.
Charles Gordon, WR/CB Kansas
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? If Justin Miller can be a first round pick, then so can Gordon. He didn't have the All-America season expected of him this year, but that's because no one threw at him.
Willie Hall, OT MTSU
Projected: 5th round
Good or bad move? He has the measurables at 6-6 and 302 pounds, and he has improved in each of the last three seasons. He'll be a solid career backup.
Devin Hester, WR/CB Miami
Projected: 1st round to early 2nd round
Good or bad move? He'll fall under the category of too-good-to-pass-up, but no one really has a clue of what to do with him. Is he a corner that needs a ton of work, or is he a receiver that hasn't reached his potential? At the very least, he's a scary-good kick return prospect.
Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio State
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? It'll be an upset if he's not the first receiver taken. He might not be Randy Moss/Terrell Owens-sized, but he can fly. He's a bigger Steve Smith.
Chad Jackson, WR Florida
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? Possibly the best combination of size and speed among the receiving prospects, Jackson will be a steal midway through the second round, and could replace Derek Hagan as the second receiver taken behind Santonio Holmes.
Omar Jacobs, QB Bowling Green
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? There was talk before the season of Jacobs being on the verge of being a better pro prospect than Matt Leinart. He was dinged up and didn't put up the numbers he did in 2004, but he still rocked when healthy. He needs work on his throwing motion and the scouts have cooled on his overall skills, but he's accurate enough to get at least a few offensive coordinators excited about his potential.
Johnathan Joseph, CB South Carolina
Projected: late first day to early second day
Good or bad move? He could've used another year to build a little more buzz. This is a decent year for corners and he could get lost in the shuffle.
Winston Justice, OT USC
Projected: 1st round to early 2nd round
Good or bad move? He's a near lock to go in the first round, likely the 20-25 range. Only some off-the-field issues from 2004 are a concern.
Brandon Kirsch, QB Purdue
Projected: Undrafted
Good or bad move? Unless he plans on becoming a safety, he'll be an undrafted, but quickly picked up, free-agent.
Greg Lee, WR Pitt
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? He has the size and the big-play capability, and he has the potential to grow into an early second round pick if he times well. Expect his physical style to make him a late first-day selection.
Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
Projected: First round
Good or bad move? His speed might put him in the top 15. He'll likely be the third back taken behind Reggie Bush and DeAngelo Williams.
Richard Marshall, CB Fresno State
Projected: 4th round
Good or bad move? He'll slide because of his size, but he'll move into the first day if his 4.4 speed becomes 4.38 speed in workouts. He's tough and a nice ball-hawker.
Derrick Martin, CB Wyoming
Projected: late first day
Good or bad move? He's a solid tackler with NFL speed. He'll make a roster.
Fred Matua, OG USC
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? He's leaving early to help out his family. He was one of the Pac 10's best run blockers.
John McCargo, DT NC State
Projected: late first day
Good or bad move? Were the NC State ends productive because of McCargo, or vice versa? He's around 300 pounds, but he's not a huge space-eater. He could've benefited from another year.
Stanley McClover, DE Auburn
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? Size is the issue. He needs to gain about 10-15 more pounds, but there's no questioning his pass rushing skills or his speed. If someone believes he'll get bigger and won't lose his quickness, he might be an early second rounder.
Derek Morris, OT NC State
Projected: Late first day, early second day
Good or bad move? Size alone, at 6-5, 340 pounds, will get him drafted, but where he gets taken depends on agility drills. Can he handle NFL speed rushers?
Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
Projected: Top ten pick
Good or bad move? The first tackle off the board. He could go top five.
Kai Parham, LB Virginia
Projected: 2nd round to late 3rd round
Good or bad move? While he has the size, quickness and production, he doesn't have the tremendous athleticism needed to be a first rounder. Even so, he should be around the fifth linebacker taken. It'll all be up to the combine numbers.
Bernard Pollard, S Purdue
Projected: 2nd to 3rd round
Good or bad move? In a thin year for safeties, he'll likely find his way into the second round because of his hitting ability. He's questionable at best in pass coverage.
Leonard Pope, TE Georgia
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Pope is too big and too good a receiver to fall out of the first round.
Drouzon Quillen, WR UL Monroe
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? It's all about the 40 time. At 6-6 and 215 pounds, he's a physical receiver who was able to hit the home run, but he has to time out at no slower than 4.6. Anything worse pushes him to a late flier on the second day.
Ko Simpson, S South Carolina
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? Think a bigger Troy Polamalu without the cool hair. Some GM will be drooling over getting the big-hitting ball-hawk in the second round.
Ernie Sims, LB Florida State
Projected: Late first to 2nd round
Good or bad move? Some think he was ready as a freshman. He isn't huge, but his speed makes him an intriguing prospect.
D.J. Smith, WR Idaho
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? It's a down year for receivers, so the second-team All-WAC performer can move into the third or fourth round with an impressive combine.
Rob Smith, G Tennessee
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? He has the size and the athleticism, but he has to prove he's really over all the little injuries over the years. He's a strong run blocker.
Stephen Tulloch, LB NC State
Projected: mid-to-late first day
Good or bad move? All question marks about his shoulder appeared answered this year. He's a tremendous tackler with great range and instincts. He can find his way into the second round if someone becomes enamored with his tackling skills.
Demetris Summers, RB South Carolina
Projected: 6th round to undrafted
Good or bad move? He'll stick with a team for at least a year, likely as a free-agent. He has decent talent and good speed, but off-the-field questions will be a problem.
Marcus Vick, QB Virginia Tech
Projected: late 3rd round to early second day
Good or bad move? Think Adrian McPherson. Someone will be ecstatic to groom him for a few years as a quarterback of the future.
Dee Webb, CB Florida
Projected: late 2nd to early 4th round
Good or bad move? He isn't all that big, but he's a sure-tackling corner with nice ball skills. He's a second rounder with a tremendous combine.
LenDale White, RB USC
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? The top 15 is a real possibility if his 40 time is under 4.5. Don't be shocked if some scouts like him better as a pure running back than Mr. Heisman.
Donte Whitner, S Ohio State
Projected: 3rd to 5th round
Good or bad move? He needs work. He could've used another year to build more of a buzz. He would've been one of the Big Ten's best defenders in 2006.
Mario Williams, DE NC State
Projected: Top 15
Good or bad move? Some think he would've been a first rounder as a freshman.
Ashton Youboty, CB Ohio State
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? With size, speed and ball-hawking skills, he could move up into the first round with a great workout. Vince Young, QB Texas
Projected: Top five pick
Good or bad move? He might be the future of the NFL. Think Michael Vick if he was a quarterback.:D