Could there be another shake up among the CFP teams?

[Jacie]

Ahead of the actual picks by the committee, the pundits have, in order:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Iowa
4. Oklahoma
5. MSU
6. tOSU

Looking ahead:

1. North Carolina vs. Clemson - a Clemson loss here is a possibility and if so, opens up all kinds of playoff scenarios from who is in to the order of the chosen
2. Florida vs. Alabama - nothing to see here
3. MSU vs. Iowa - this one's a true toss-up. An Iowa loss would result in MSU moving up, only question being how far
4. Oklahoma - position should be secure, just a matter of which one
5. MSU - see 3.
6. tOSU - Hmmm, no game looked good beating Michigan, could move into the CFP with a Clemson loss

North Carolina - no doubt wondering why they aren't getting any consideration should they knock off #1, a longshot but should get a spot if they can do it

Left out of the discussion, Stanford. I am unable to calculate if we start including 2-loss teams.

Did i miss anyone?

[Salt City Sooner]

A ton of the talking heads I've heard so far have said that they wouldn't be shocked if a 2 loss Stanford got in over UNC due in large part to A) UNC losing to a 3-9 team, & B ) UNC's schedule (they played 2 FCS teams).

[yermom]

Yeah, I just noticed their schedule. It's tough to discount beating Clemson, but two FCS teams is pretty shameful.

I just noticed our OOC teams are all bowl eligible. Kinda nuts. Tennessee ended up 8-4. Tulsa was 6-6 and Akron was 7-5

Only losing records were in conference, Kansas, ISU, KSU and Texas

[BoulderSooner79]

Hmmm. I don't see why Iowa would jump ahead of OU. If anything, there could be an argument for OU moving up to #2 over Bama as we had a dominant win over previous top 10 team and Bama struggled for a while over a 6-5 Auburn. I doubt it happens because Bama did dominant in the stats columns and OSU was without their primary, passing QB.

Most likely final:
Clemson
Bama
OU
MSU/Iowa winner (I put MSU first as the favorite)

I could see Iowa jumping us and dropping us to #4 if they win since they will be undefeated. I don't see that happening if MSU wins.

If Clemson is upset, things get more interesting. I would see Stanford being next up with 2 losses, but they have to beat USC next week. And I don't like those rematch situation for the team the won the first time around. If both Clemson and Stanford lose, I think tOSU sneaks in again at #4 just like last year.

[Okie35]

we will be at 4 behind the big 10 winner. I really hope Florida or UNC wins. That'll be hilarious.

[yermom]

I also have a feeling they will put us at #4 just to keep us out of Dallas unless something else crazy happens

The luster wanes a bit with our off week as well.

#4 beating #5 or vice versa states a pretty good case.

I'm thinking if Iowa wins and UNC wins, I could see giving it to tOSU over UNC and Stanford, but I think MSU winning would shut out the Buckeyes since they already beat them.

[yermom]

Of course Clemson would only have one loss just like Ohio State at that point as a not conference champ

That makes me feel like Stanford if they win might be next up since their schedule looks better than UNC's even if they have an extra loss

[Jack T.]

I think I'd rather play Clemson than 'Bama. . .although we probably have to beat them both.

Just two more games. . .just win two more games.

[SoonerMarkVA]

Ahead of the actual picks by the committee, the pundits have, in order:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Iowa
4. Oklahoma
5. MSU
6. tOSU


Maybe I'm missing something, but why would Iowa jump OU after scraping by a hapless Nebbish, when we pounded a top 15 team?

[BoulderSooner79]

Maybe I'm missing something, but why would Iowa jump OU after scraping by a hapless Nebbish, when we pounded a top 15 team?

I'm missing that one too - at least for this week. We are conference champs and Iowa or MSU won't be for another week. The committee put us at #3 *before* we won the conference which surprised me, so if anything, they seem to like what they see in OU. Not sure why pounding the Pokes would change that.

[yermom]

Maybe not this week, but what about next week while they forget about us again because we aren't on TV?

[BoulderSooner79]

Maybe not this week, but what about next week while they forget about us again because we aren't on TV?

Guess we'll see. The committee has been pretty consistent in valuing quality wins and conference titles over the quality of losses. Iowa will have an elite win if the beat MSU, but that's the only one. MSU has a much better resume than Iowa, but a bad (and recent!) loss to Nebraska. We have our final 3 in a row against 10 win teams and I don't think they'll forget about us - they are not the average biased, dufus fans from off the street.

[SoonerMarkVA]

Maybe not this week, but what about next week while they forget about us again because we aren't on TV?

That is indeed a risk. This committee has much in common with an unruly child, including ADHD. Without entertaining them on the final Saturday, I'm sure we'll drift somewhat, at least, in their minds.

[BoulderSooner79]

That is indeed a risk. This committee has much in common with an unruly child, including ADHD. Without entertaining them on the final Saturday, I'm sure we'll drift somewhat, at least, in their minds.

I don't know what you base that on as the committee has only 1 year of history. I had no issue with their final 4 last year.

[Soonerjeepman]

Maybe not this week, but what about next week while they forget about us again because we aren't on TV?

maybe so, but we still have beat 3 top 15 teams.

8 MAYBE 9 (if ksu can beat wv next week) will have 6 or more wins and be bowling.

There are only 5, I think, schools that had 3 D1 non-conf games in which they won and all 3 opp are headed to a bowl game. Obviously OU is one. Think tosu, nd, mich st maybe...couple more

[Soonerjeepman]

Yeah, I just noticed their schedule. It's tough to discount beating Clemson, but two FCS teams is pretty shameful.

I just noticed our OOC teams are all bowl eligible. Kinda nuts. Tennessee ended up 8-4. Tulsa was 6-6 and Akron was 7-5

Only losing records were in conference, Kansas, ISU, KSU and Texas

ksu actually has a chance to get to 6 wins. Need to beat wv in manhattan next week. Old man snyder's last game. They'll be pumped.

[soonergirlNeugene]

Even if they actually have the talent to beat Clemson, there's no way North Carolina is getting a single call in their favor next weekend.

[Jacie]

You know NC scored 35 points in the first quarter against NC St.? That level of effort is on par with what OU did to okie st. I don't care what team they were playing that is impressive.

[yermom]

ksu actually has a chance to get to 6 wins. Need to beat wv in manhattan next week. Old man snyder's last game. They'll be pumped.

I guess I missed both of those things.

The old wizard is hanging it up?

[Soonerjeepman]

I guess I missed both of those things.

The old wizard is hanging it up?

the game for sure...

I could have sworn during the ksu/ku game sat they mentioned several times that he was done at the end of this year...maybe they were guessing. Haven't seen anything official..

guess not. oops.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/24/9729294/bill-snyder-kansas-state-football-coach

[SoonerMarkVA]

I don't know what you base that on as the committee has only 1 year of history. I had no issue with their final 4 last year.

TCU was one of the 4 best teams in the country last year, and even with winning their final game convincingly they dropped from 3 to 6. Made no sense.

We'll see how it all shakes out, but I fully expect the B10 champ to jump us. Based on resume, we should be above 'Bama.

[BoulderSooner79]

TCU was one of the 4 best teams in the country last year, and even with winning their final game convincingly they dropped from 3 to 6. Made no sense.



It made sense to me. The committee uses a combination of best team + most deserving. They thought that TCU was the best team in the big12, but they were never going to rank them above Baylor if Baylor won the conference. On the final weekend, Baylor won the conference by any rational definition since they won the head to head over TCU. So they didn't drop TCU arbitrarily - they dropped them below Baylor because Baylor became the most deserving. So the real question was whether Baylor would make the playoff and they didn't for other reasons. TCU was doomed the day they lost to Baylor unless Baylor stumbled.

Now you could say it made no sense for the committee to put TCU in the #3 place holder during the intermediate weeks and I'd say you have a point. But the final rankings made perfect sense.

[BigTip]

Yeah, I just noticed their schedule. It's tough to discount beating Clemson, but two FCS teams is pretty shameful.


VERY shameful and they should be penalized for it. Teach these teams a lesson.
Alabama playing Charleston Southern (who?!?!!) is embarrassing to college football. Especially late in the season like it was.

[yermom]

i'd also like to thank Tennessee for not imploding after we beat them...

ended up 8-4 and lost those 4 by a combined 17 points to OU, Bama, Florida and Arkansas, with our win by 7 being the largest margin

i'm thinking we played them at the right time, kinda like FSU

[soonerboomer93]

Hmmm. I don't see why Iowa would jump ahead of OU. If anything, there could be an argument for OU moving up to #2 over Bama as we had a dominant win over previous top 10 team and Bama struggled for a while over a 6-5 Auburn. I doubt it happens because Bama did dominant in the stats columns and OSU was without their primary, passing QB.

Most likely final:
Clemson
Bama
OU
MSU/Iowa winner (I put MSU first as the favorite)

I could see Iowa jumping us and dropping us to #4 if they win since they will be undefeated. I don't see that happening if MSU wins.

If Clemson is upset, things get more interesting. I would see Stanford being next up with 2 losses, but they have to beat USC next week. And I don't like those rematch situation for the team the won the first time around. If both Clemson and Stanford lose, I think tOSU sneaks in again at #4 just like last year.

[tinfoil hat]They'll shuffle teams around in the final rankings to setup preferred semi final / final game scenarios [/tinfoil hat]

[yermom]

i'm thinking we're either #2 or #4, assuming Clemson wins

if we are #3 then the #2 team has to play a lower ranked team in their back yard, because if Clemson wins, they are going to be in Miami, playing #4

i can see them arbitrarily putting us at #4 to even out the bracket.

so basicially, i don't think we are in Dallas unless we break the top 2

[yermom]

i like our chances against any of them, really, but i like those chances more in Arlington

[BoulderSooner79]

[tinfoil hat]They'll shuffle teams around in the final rankings to setup preferred semi final / final game scenarios [/tinfoil hat]

That seems to be the assumption here - that match-ups and venue will impact the final ranking. It's the tail wagging the dog, but I suppose the committee has ultimate power. If that's what they tried to do last year, it was a big Phail. FSU had played the least inspired football of the 4 and the Ducks had so many injuries at the skill positions, they couldn't be a full strength. It was obvious (to me) that the real championship was the tOSU/Bama semi and that's the way it play out. It would have been better as the final.

[SoCalBigRed]

I don't think the Sooners have any team and certainly not Clemson to be intimidated by. I think their worst matchup, would be 'bama because of that defensive line.

However, this season has been a progression and they've done very well, to address/adjust to weaknesses. Our offensive line, is vastly superior to what started the season. Our backs are really helping out blocking. The whole system is dependent on guys picking up their assignments. Last year, they went through the motions. This year, they're engaged.

This is a special team. Its still going to take an excellent game plan, and adjustments. Its going to take, staying healthy... but they have a nice long time to rest now. Its going to take some luck. But, I think they're the best team right now. Throw out the stupid loss to texas, which is never a gimme game, regardless of ranking... and OU would probably be locked solid in at #1, regardless of what everyone else had done. Strong season against a lot of decent/strong teams.

[BoulderSooner79]

I definitely think we would be ranked #1 by the committee if we were 12-0. They put us at #3 last week before winning the conference and after barely squeaking by TCU. That was a shocker to me. And all this love has my spidey senses on full alert - I vividly recall the '03 season when the BCS and media were slobbering all over OU after finishing the regular season 11-0. Gak!

[BigTip]

They put us at #3 last week before winning the conference and after barely squeaking by TCU. That was a shocker to me. And all this love has my spidey senses on full alert

+1
I mean I understand and agree with the "big" jump, but I always assume the powers that be don't ever think like I do.

[Jacie]

Ohio State's only chance to crash the party is for a clemson win and a bama loss. No other game impacts their chances.

Stanford? I don't see any way in for them.

No other team is in the conversation.

[yermom]

I'm almost certain Clemson is done if they lose. Bama too. That leaves two spots.

Does Florida get in over Stanford at that point? Ohio State?

[SoonerMarkVA]

I'm almost certain Clemson is done if they lose. Bama too. That leaves two spots.

Does Florida get in over Stanford at that point? Ohio State?

I think Bama would be with 2 losses, but I could easily see a 1-loss Clemson, losing to a 1-loss NC, drop to #4.

[badger]

Please go to any ESPN article that mentions that Ohio State is potentially out of the playoffs. The comments are wonderful.

For example...
http://espn.go.com/ncf/story/_/id/14255420/why-ohio-state-notre-dame-go-ahead-accept-their-playoff-fates

I know Florida State seemingly got a free pass to the playoffs for being the defending national champs last year... but they were also conference champs and undefeated. Ohio State will be neither.

How bout them bloating big boy 14 team conferences now? You'll never got a chance to un-undefeat Iowa, because you'll never play them. If only you lost to a sh!tty non-conference creampuff instead of a conference team. Hell, if only you lost to a sh!tty conference team in the other division of your conference instead of your next door neighbor...aggie-lite version.

It really is a cruel world, Ohio State. But at least they'll be leaving out team #5 (you) instead of team #3 (us). :D:D:D

[SoonerMarkVA]

Not everyone gets to keep playing, no matter how unfair it feels or how you were once able to hold that spot in your hands, only to see it slip away like it was being handled by Notre Dame in the red zone.

ROTFL!

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

A ton of the talking heads I've heard so far have said that they wouldn't be shocked if a 2 loss Stanford got in over UNC due in large part to A) UNC losing to a 3-9 team, & B ) UNC's schedule (they played 2 FCS teams).

You forgot that they have more direct representation on the CFP committee than 3 of the 5 P5 conferences combined.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I don't think the Sooners have any team and certainly not Clemson to be intimidated by. I think their worst matchup, would be 'bama because of that defensive line.

However, this season has been a progression and they've done very well, to address/adjust to weaknesses. Our offensive line, is vastly superior to what started the season. Our backs are really helping out blocking. The whole system is dependent on guys picking up their assignments. Last year, they went through the motions. This year, they're engaged.

This is a special team. Its still going to take an excellent game plan, and adjustments. Its going to take, staying healthy... but they have a nice long time to rest now. Its going to take some luck. But, I think they're the best team right now. Throw out the stupid loss to texas, which is never a gimme game, regardless of ranking... and OU would probably be locked solid in at #1, regardless of what everyone else had done. Strong season against a lot of decent/strong teams.

Ohio State is our worst matchup

[BoulderSooner79]

Ohio State is our worst matchup

Worse than Bama? I figure any dominant front 7 on D might expose our O-line and the 2 FR tackles. Would tOSU's offense present more problems than Bama's? Given that tOSU has 1 quality win and didn't even win their division, they should have little chance to get in.

[badger]

I don't care what number we are as long as we're in. If you want to make us #4, we can just pretend that we were actually #1 in the 1-4 pairing :P

[SoonerMarkVA]

I think we match up well against either of them because they haven't faced an effective spread offense like we can throw at them. My bigger question would be whether our defense can contain a physical, road-grating offense.

[BoulderSooner79]

I think we match up well against either of them because they haven't faced an effective spread offense like we can throw at them. My bigger question would be whether our defense can contain a physical, road-grating offense.

Yes, but no offense works if your O-line can't block their D-line. Our O-line has definitely improved since the first half of the year, but we haven't run into another D-line like the Vols again either.

[BoulderSooner79]

Several media types have mentioned that the committee could put OU at #1 this week since we have the only P5 team with a conference title. They have a policy to rank what is present and not look ahead. Then we would most likely drop us back down to another spot (most likely 3) after the other conference champs are crowned. I think that would be hilarious for all the butthurt it would cause this week from Clemson and Bama fans followed by all the butthurt from OU fans the following week. If you haven't noticed, I do enjoy schadenfreude even if it's from OUr fans. :D

[SoonerMarkVA]

Yes, but no offense works if your O-line can't block their D-line. Our O-line has definitely improved since the first half of the year, but we haven't run into another D-line like the Vols again either.

It'd have to put all emphasis on quick hitting short game. I still think the offensive gameplan against KSU is what our personnel is tailor-made for. If Baker has the ball out of his hands in < 2s, that's when we're in the zone.