milesl
11/18/2015, 01:07 PM
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14157475/five-observations-third-college-football-playoff-rankings
Five observations from the third CFP rankings
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14158466
The third set of College Football Playoff rankings is out, and the top four (actually top five) held firm despite plenty of fluctuation elsewhere. What do we make of the latest rundown? Here are five observations:
1. Notre Dame-Stanford still could be a CFP play-in game
The juiciest debate on Dec. 6 could be Notre Dame versus Oklahoma if both squads win out. But for now, Notre Dame is in great shape at No. 4, and selection committee chair Jeff Long said there was little discussion about moving the Irish down after their win against Wake Forest. Oklahoma, meanwhile, sits three spots behind Notre Dame with two big games remaining. The Sooners really need Oklahoma State to beat Baylor this week to set them up for another signature road win in the OU-OSU game on Nov. 28.
But Notre Dame also should have a chance for a signature win that day, perhaps against a top110 team. Stanford only fell to No. 11 after its second loss at home to previously unranked Oregon. If the Cardinal win this week against Cal, it could re-enter the committee's top 10 before Notre Dame visits Stanford Stadium on Nov. 28. Notre Dame really needs that to happen, as its overall résumé looks weaker by the week.
Stanford's moderate drop also leaves the door open for a CFP spot if it wins out and the Oklahoma schools both lose once more. A two-loss Stanford team that finishes with wins against Notre Dame and possibly Utah, which sits at No. 13 after its second loss, could leapfrog a one-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State or TCU for a playoff spot.
Bottom line: The Pac-12 can breathe a little, as it still has a playoff pulse. And Notre Dame-Stanford should have significant implications unless things get nutty this week.
2. The Big 12's best bet: stability in the Sooner State, chaos elsewhere
The committee's rankings of Big 12 teams have been puzzling, to say the least. Baylor clearly resonates in the room, as the Bears remained in the top 10 despite a 10-point home loss to Oklahoma. Many expected the Sooners to sniff the top four after their seemingly big victory, but they sit a safe distance away. The committee still thinks more of Iowa, which lacks a bad loss (or any loss, for that matter) but also no win that should resonate as much as Oklahoma's at Baylor.
The Big 12 needs both Oklahoma schools to defend their home fields Saturday. An Oklahoma win against TCU wouldn't help much, as the 18th-ranked Horned Frogs are falling fast in the committee's eyes, but it would keep OU alive for the playoff. The OU-OSU game, then, would become a virtual play-in for Oklahoma State and a possible play-in for Oklahoma. But it would help to have some chaos elsewhere, namely Stanford beating Notre Dame but then losing in the Pac-12 championship game. The Big Ten also remains vulnerable, especially if Michigan wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan State this week. The Big 12 also could use an assist from its former member, Nebraska, which hosts Iowa on Nov. 27.
3. Clemson is the ACC's only real CFP contender
Dabo Swinney's team remained No. 1, as expected, although the committee discussed the possibility of moving Alabama into the top spot. But if Clemson wins out, it has nothing to worry about and should be the host team for a semifinal. But what if North Carolina upsets Clemson in the ACC title game?
The Tar Heels are suddenly a threat to Clemson. They're one of the nation's hottest teams behind one of the nation's hottest quarterbacks in Marquise Williams. They've bounced back nicely from an unsightly opening loss to South Carolina, which is now 3-7. But they don't appear to be a viable CFP contender, even if they run the table and beat Clemson. Rising from No. 17 into the top four with three weeks to play seems too steep of a climb, and wins against Virginia Tech and NC State won't do much to help the Heels' cause.
Long said the committee is very aware of North Carolina's unusual nonleague schedule, which features two Power 5 opponents (South Carolina and Illinois) and two FCS opponents (North Carolina A&T and Delaware). Regardless of the circumstances, two FCS foes on the slate always looks terrible. Coupled with an underwhelming ACC Coastal division schedule, North Carolina won't have enough substance to vault into the top four. So it's Clemson or bust for the ACC.
4. Ohio State needs to validate the committee's faith like Alabama did
Many of us were surprised when Alabama debuted in the initial CFP rankings at No. 4. Perhaps the committee knew something, as the Tide have recorded their two most impressive wins the past two weeks against LSU (which amazingly remains in the committee's top 20) and Mississippi State. It's time for Ohio State to reward the committee the same way.
The Buckeyes are this year's ultimate eye-test team. They've beaten no one of substance, struggled against some inferior opponents but rarely looked to be in real danger. The committee is steadfast that it doesn't project, but how else can they explain why the Buckeyes, moderately impressive against mostly woeful competition, remain at No. 3? Every other team near the Buckeyes in the rankings has done much more than they have.
Ohio State's chance to impress is finally here. Urban Meyer's team could finish with three top-10 opponents, beginning Saturday with No. 9 Michigan State. The committee thinks Ohio State could be CFP-worthy, but the Buckeyes need to validate that view, much like Alabama has done.
5. Houston is the victim of an unlucky schedule
The Cougars did what Group of 5 teams are supposed to do to get national recognition: beat Power 5 opponents. But a road win against Louisville, normally a nice jewel in the portfolio, hasn't worked out, as the Cardinals are just 6-4. Thumping Vanderbilt also hasn't helped, as the Commodores sit at 4-6. So Houston is only ranked No. 19, despite being the lone remaining unbeaten from the Group of 5. Five two-loss teams are ahead of Houston, including LSU, which is absurd.
Houston's path to the golden ticket and a New Year's Six bowl remains pretty clear: win out against Connecticut, Navy and then Temple or South Florida in the American Athletic championship game. The committee is clearly impressed with Navy, which thumped Memphis on Nov. 7 at the Liberty Bowl and has a respectable loss at Notre Dame. The 16h-ranked Midshipmen will land the golden ticket if they win out, but they'll need another signature road win against Houston on Nov. 27.
The Group of 5 surprise Tuesday was Memphis, which remains in the rankings despite consecutive losses. The Tigers need a ton of help. Could Toledo be in the Group of 5 mix next week following its big win against Bowling Green?
Five observations from the third CFP rankings
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14158466
The third set of College Football Playoff rankings is out, and the top four (actually top five) held firm despite plenty of fluctuation elsewhere. What do we make of the latest rundown? Here are five observations:
1. Notre Dame-Stanford still could be a CFP play-in game
The juiciest debate on Dec. 6 could be Notre Dame versus Oklahoma if both squads win out. But for now, Notre Dame is in great shape at No. 4, and selection committee chair Jeff Long said there was little discussion about moving the Irish down after their win against Wake Forest. Oklahoma, meanwhile, sits three spots behind Notre Dame with two big games remaining. The Sooners really need Oklahoma State to beat Baylor this week to set them up for another signature road win in the OU-OSU game on Nov. 28.
But Notre Dame also should have a chance for a signature win that day, perhaps against a top110 team. Stanford only fell to No. 11 after its second loss at home to previously unranked Oregon. If the Cardinal win this week against Cal, it could re-enter the committee's top 10 before Notre Dame visits Stanford Stadium on Nov. 28. Notre Dame really needs that to happen, as its overall résumé looks weaker by the week.
Stanford's moderate drop also leaves the door open for a CFP spot if it wins out and the Oklahoma schools both lose once more. A two-loss Stanford team that finishes with wins against Notre Dame and possibly Utah, which sits at No. 13 after its second loss, could leapfrog a one-loss Baylor, Oklahoma State or TCU for a playoff spot.
Bottom line: The Pac-12 can breathe a little, as it still has a playoff pulse. And Notre Dame-Stanford should have significant implications unless things get nutty this week.
2. The Big 12's best bet: stability in the Sooner State, chaos elsewhere
The committee's rankings of Big 12 teams have been puzzling, to say the least. Baylor clearly resonates in the room, as the Bears remained in the top 10 despite a 10-point home loss to Oklahoma. Many expected the Sooners to sniff the top four after their seemingly big victory, but they sit a safe distance away. The committee still thinks more of Iowa, which lacks a bad loss (or any loss, for that matter) but also no win that should resonate as much as Oklahoma's at Baylor.
The Big 12 needs both Oklahoma schools to defend their home fields Saturday. An Oklahoma win against TCU wouldn't help much, as the 18th-ranked Horned Frogs are falling fast in the committee's eyes, but it would keep OU alive for the playoff. The OU-OSU game, then, would become a virtual play-in for Oklahoma State and a possible play-in for Oklahoma. But it would help to have some chaos elsewhere, namely Stanford beating Notre Dame but then losing in the Pac-12 championship game. The Big Ten also remains vulnerable, especially if Michigan wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan State this week. The Big 12 also could use an assist from its former member, Nebraska, which hosts Iowa on Nov. 27.
3. Clemson is the ACC's only real CFP contender
Dabo Swinney's team remained No. 1, as expected, although the committee discussed the possibility of moving Alabama into the top spot. But if Clemson wins out, it has nothing to worry about and should be the host team for a semifinal. But what if North Carolina upsets Clemson in the ACC title game?
The Tar Heels are suddenly a threat to Clemson. They're one of the nation's hottest teams behind one of the nation's hottest quarterbacks in Marquise Williams. They've bounced back nicely from an unsightly opening loss to South Carolina, which is now 3-7. But they don't appear to be a viable CFP contender, even if they run the table and beat Clemson. Rising from No. 17 into the top four with three weeks to play seems too steep of a climb, and wins against Virginia Tech and NC State won't do much to help the Heels' cause.
Long said the committee is very aware of North Carolina's unusual nonleague schedule, which features two Power 5 opponents (South Carolina and Illinois) and two FCS opponents (North Carolina A&T and Delaware). Regardless of the circumstances, two FCS foes on the slate always looks terrible. Coupled with an underwhelming ACC Coastal division schedule, North Carolina won't have enough substance to vault into the top four. So it's Clemson or bust for the ACC.
4. Ohio State needs to validate the committee's faith like Alabama did
Many of us were surprised when Alabama debuted in the initial CFP rankings at No. 4. Perhaps the committee knew something, as the Tide have recorded their two most impressive wins the past two weeks against LSU (which amazingly remains in the committee's top 20) and Mississippi State. It's time for Ohio State to reward the committee the same way.
The Buckeyes are this year's ultimate eye-test team. They've beaten no one of substance, struggled against some inferior opponents but rarely looked to be in real danger. The committee is steadfast that it doesn't project, but how else can they explain why the Buckeyes, moderately impressive against mostly woeful competition, remain at No. 3? Every other team near the Buckeyes in the rankings has done much more than they have.
Ohio State's chance to impress is finally here. Urban Meyer's team could finish with three top-10 opponents, beginning Saturday with No. 9 Michigan State. The committee thinks Ohio State could be CFP-worthy, but the Buckeyes need to validate that view, much like Alabama has done.
5. Houston is the victim of an unlucky schedule
The Cougars did what Group of 5 teams are supposed to do to get national recognition: beat Power 5 opponents. But a road win against Louisville, normally a nice jewel in the portfolio, hasn't worked out, as the Cardinals are just 6-4. Thumping Vanderbilt also hasn't helped, as the Commodores sit at 4-6. So Houston is only ranked No. 19, despite being the lone remaining unbeaten from the Group of 5. Five two-loss teams are ahead of Houston, including LSU, which is absurd.
Houston's path to the golden ticket and a New Year's Six bowl remains pretty clear: win out against Connecticut, Navy and then Temple or South Florida in the American Athletic championship game. The committee is clearly impressed with Navy, which thumped Memphis on Nov. 7 at the Liberty Bowl and has a respectable loss at Notre Dame. The 16h-ranked Midshipmen will land the golden ticket if they win out, but they'll need another signature road win against Houston on Nov. 27.
The Group of 5 surprise Tuesday was Memphis, which remains in the rankings despite consecutive losses. The Tigers need a ton of help. Could Toledo be in the Group of 5 mix next week following its big win against Bowling Green?