Phil Steele's preseason top 25 projections [Archive]

badger

5/6/2015, 08:53 AM

Before you all hate on Phil Steele, this is his projection for the AP preseason top 25, not what he personally ranks the teams:
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/APR15/DBApr27.html

I counted NINE SEC teams --- Bammer (3), Barner (9), UGA (10), Ole Miss (12), LSU (14), Mizz (19) Arky (20), Miss St (21), Rocky Top (24). That sounds about right, because the AP voters would rank all 14 if their conscience wasn't in the way: Durrr, shouldn't this be a national poll durr?

To be fair, the Big 12 has two in the top four, so the playoff projection might make up for last year's end of season slight (TCU at 2, Baylor at 4)

BUT... the Sooners have fallen to No. 22. We're still ranked, yes, but our reputation took a huge hit last season.

BoulderSooner79

5/6/2015, 09:02 AM

I actually didn't think the big12 got slighted and I had the same top 4 in the playoffs (in a slightly different order). And it had nothing to do with the lack of CCG.

badger

5/6/2015, 09:32 AM

The Big 12 was very, very close to have two teams in the playoffs. All it would have taken was Wisconsin's running back acting like a first round NFL prospect and Florida State finally getting upset. Neither happens, so Baylor and TCU were left out. Tough sheet. It's the chance we took and it didn't pay off... but it very well could in future seasons.

Salt City Sooner

5/6/2015, 11:12 AM

I actually didn't think the big12 got slighted and I had the same top 4 in the playoffs (in a slightly different order). And it had nothing to do with the lack of CCG.
Looks like we'd better hope that's the case:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/12828961/big-12-commissioner-bob-bowlsby-says-conference-putting-title-game-talk-hold-now

BoulderSooner79

5/6/2015, 11:41 AM

Looks like we'd better hope that's the case:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/12828961/big-12-commissioner-bob-bowlsby-says-conference-putting-title-game-talk-hold-now

Trying to have a CCG with 10 teams is moronic.

Salt City Sooner

5/6/2015, 01:44 PM

Trying to have a CCG with 10 teams is moronic.
Agree totally, but IF (& I say if because we weren't in the room w/ the committee, not to mention we only have a 1 year sample size) the lack of one is actually being used against us in that voting room, then we'd better get with the program & get it installed, IMO. There's always the risk that whatever team we have in contention for the playoff gets upset in said CCG, but if the committee is going to hold the lack of one against us to start with, how big really was that risk in the first place?

BoulderSooner79

5/6/2015, 02:27 PM

Agree totally, but IF (& I say if because we weren't in the room w/ the committee, not to mention we only have a 1 year sample size) the lack of one is actually being used against us in that voting room, then we'd better get with the program & get it installed, IMO. There's always the risk that whatever team we have in contention for the playoff gets upset in said CCG, but if the committee is going to hold the lack of one against us to start with, how big really was that risk in the first place?

Being OU biased, I'd leave it alone. If OU wins the conference undefeated, they're in. If they have 1 loss and are tied with other teams out there, they are most likely in. Baylor would have been in last season had they played 1 decent P5 team OOC and that's on them. TCU got tons of credit for playing a slightly above average Minnesota. They probably would have gotten in with 1 loss had they had the head to head win like BU did. Bottom line is the conference needs to offer up an elite team with a resume to support it. Came close last season, but no cigar. But I really don't give a crap about other conference teams.

Eielson

5/6/2015, 03:19 PM

Remember when we used to whine and complain that the Big Ten had an unfair advantage by not playing a CCG? This is going to be a cyclical argument. This year it's viewed as a disadvantage, and everybody wants to have a CCG. At some point in the next few years, it will work to the Big XII's advantage, and other conferences will try to not have to play a CCG.

The real disadvantage was that TCU and Baylor were fighting for the spot instead of OU and Texas. Let's be honest, though, Baylor had no business in the playoffs. We all know they would have **** the bed like they did against UCF and MSU. TCU would have taken Bama to the woodshed, though.

BoulderSooner79

5/6/2015, 06:00 PM

The real disadvantage was that TCU and Baylor were fighting for the spot instead of OU and Texas. Let's be honest, though, Baylor had no business in the playoffs. We all know they would have **** the bed like they did against UCF and MSU. TCU would have taken Bama to the woodshed, though.

I disagree. BU should have beaten a very good MSU team and had to expel a couple of brain farts late in the game to lose it. MSU only lost to the 2 teams in the BCS final and they had the Ducks beat in Oregon before they experienced cranial gas. I think TCU would have matched up well against Bama, but I think Bama's power running game would have prevailed. Just my opinion, but TCU got too much credit for trouncing a very discouraged Ole Miss team. The Rebels had about as much will to win at the end as we did against Clemson and had already been beaten 30-0 by Arkie. TCU on the other hand seemed very motivated to prove something to the committee. Kudos to Patterson for getting them prepared - not his fault Ole Miss wasn't equally motivated.

Eielson

5/6/2015, 06:22 PM

I disagree. BU should have beaten a very good MSU team and had to expel a couple of brain farts late in the game to lose it. MSU only lost to the 2 teams in the BCS final and they had the Ducks beat in Oregon before they experienced cranial gas. I think TCU would have matched up well against Bama, but I think Bama's power running game would have prevailed. Just my opinion, but TCU got too much credit for trouncing a very discouraged Ole Miss team. The Rebels had about as much will to win at the end as we did against Clemson and had already been beaten 30-0 by Arkie. TCU on the other hand seemed very motivated to prove something to the committee. Kudos to Patterson for getting them prepared - not his fault Ole Miss wasn't equally motivated.

If that Baylor 4th quarter performance isn't "****ting the bed," then I don't know what is.

I said TCU would beat Alabama before the playoffs even happened. There should be a thread somewhere around here if you want to verify. The results of the tOSU game, and the beatdown of Ole Miss that you don't seem to want to give them any credit for, only served to further solidify my opinion.

Eielson

5/6/2015, 06:31 PM

Also, MSU lost by 3 scores to Oregon. They played well for about 30 minutes, but that's not enough to say they "had them beat." We had a great first quarter against Baylor, but you won't hear any of us bragging about that.

BoulderSooner79

5/6/2015, 07:57 PM

IMO, dude.

Eielson

5/6/2015, 10:13 PM

IMO, dude.

And I gave mine.

BoulderSooner79

5/7/2015, 12:38 AM

And I gave mine.

Sorry, ran out of time to post. I'm just going by the eyeball test and I watched many of those games. I gave TCU plenty of credit, I just don't give it to Ole Miss. TCU had reason to be down after thinking they might get in to the CFP, but ended up below BU. Instead of being down they put in a stellar performance - not something I think Stoops could inspire in recent years. But they had their flaws too as their loss to BU was a total meltdown in a game they had won. And they were supposed to be the defensive big12 leader, but gave up 750 yards in that game. Many voter raised an eyebrow about *both* BU and TCU after that one since elite teams are not supposed to give up 60 points in a regulation game. Their close call against KU didn't help either, but most teams will have one like that in a season. Bottom line is I liked both TCU and BU, but I would not have voted either into the playoff last year. The team they should have displaced was FSU, but I just can't see anyone leaving out an undefeated team that was also defending champ, so I can't argue that one.

badger

5/7/2015, 09:01 AM

BoulderSooner79

5/7/2015, 09:58 AM

badger

5/7/2015, 10:12 AM

I think it was Steve Spurrier who joked that Kevin Sumlin is a great negotiator. He used NFL and USC speculation to get a max $5 million (or so) annual deal that is second only to Nick Saban in the SEC... a coach who actually competes for SEC division and conference titles. A coach who's actually won national championships. A coach who has his team in the college playoff discussion at the end of the regular season, not the beginning (actually, the beginning too).

Thread-related, because neither UT nor aTm are in Steele's top 25. I really don't know if Charlie Strong will get whorn turned around. I was none too impressed with their spring game (which you can watch all summer long on The Longhorn Network)

Eielson

5/7/2015, 10:40 AM

Sorry, ran out of time to post. I'm just going by the eyeball test and I watched many of those games. I gave TCU plenty of credit, I just don't give it to Ole Miss. TCU had reason to be down after thinking they might get in to the CFP, but ended up below BU. Instead of being down they put in a stellar performance - not something I think Stoops could inspire in recent years. But they had their flaws too as their loss to BU was a total meltdown in a game they had won. And they were supposed to be the defensive big12 leader, but gave up 750 yards in that game. Many voter raised an eyebrow about *both* BU and TCU after that one since elite teams are not supposed to give up 60 points in a regulation game. Their close call against KU didn't help either, but most teams will have one like that in a season. Bottom line is I liked both TCU and BU, but I would not have voted either into the playoff last year. The team they should have displaced was FSU, but I just can't see anyone leaving out an undefeated team that was also defending champ, so I can't argue that one.

I wasn't that impressed with Ole Miss, either. I felt they were pretty good for a 9-3 team, but I wasn't sold on them as top 10. I didn't think anybody in the country was capable of beating them as badly as TCU did, though. Alabama certainly didn't, and neither could Miss. St. That was one of the most thorough late-season beatdowns I've ever seen of a top 10 team. I will admit, though, that the tOSU beatdown of Wisconsin was probably equally impressive (didn't catch much of it).

I was also impressed with how thoroughly Baylor handled MSU. Baylor was clearly the better team, but then again, they were better than UCF as well. My argument wasn't so much that Baylor didn't earn a spot in the playoffs, but rather that they would have blown it.

I don't feel that TCU or Baylor were slighted. They were just unfortunate. Not having a CCG worked against TCU and Baylor this year, but the odds aren't in favor of that being a continual trend. If we count TCU and Baylor as one team, then there were 5 teams fighting for 4 spots heading into CCG weekend. I don't know about you guys, but I'd rather be the team not playing. It was just the perfect storm (all 4 teams won, tOSU delivered one of the most epic beatdowns in recent CFB history, and Oregon was able to convincingly avenge their one loss).

It's funny, though. This playoff system was supposed to clear things up and reduce the controversy, yet one year in we're already complaining about teams 5 and 6. I can't help but think there would have been less controversy had we let FSU and Alabama play for the championship.

BoulderSooner79

5/7/2015, 11:13 AM

SicEmBaylor

5/7/2015, 12:16 PM

Fair projections.

Although, and I'm doom-and-gloom every year, but I don't see us finishing in the top-5. Top-12 is more likely.

Eielson

5/7/2015, 12:35 PM

I'm not sure reducing controversy was a goal - if so, that's not realistic. Even with 64 teams, there is always an ESPN segment about who got screwed after hoops selection day. I think the goal is to keep more teams in the running and thus more total interest in the sport farther into the season. I do think there was a better outcome than the old system which would have most likely been FSU vs. Bama. FSU just didn't look that good in a many of their games against mediocre competition, but there was just no way to omit them, so having 4 teams really helped. After watching the first round, I felt like the Bama vs tOSU was the real championship game and the Rose bowl winner was going to get pounded and that turned out to be the case.

By "reducing controversy," I meant more along the lines of crowning the actual best team. I'm having a hard time calling tOSU the real champions. They were just playing really well at the end of the season. TCU was also playing very well.

The year before, if OU had somehow snuck into a playoff (had we not inexplicably lost to Texas, we might have), I think we could have definitely won it, as beating OSU and Alabama back to back was comparable. In no way was that a championship team, though.

BoulderSooner79

5/7/2015, 09:03 PM

By "reducing controversy," I meant more along the lines of crowning the actual best team. I'm having a hard time calling tOSU the real champions. They were just playing really well at the end of the season. TCU was also playing very well.

The year before, if OU had somehow snuck into a playoff (had we not inexplicably lost to Texas, we might have), I think we could have definitely won it, as beating OSU and Alabama back to back was comparable. In no way was that a championship team, though.

Getting hot at the end of the season is a factor that can't be ignored and is a huge factor in the NFL. There have been several wild card teams win it all recently. tOSU had a reason to start slow having to go to a backup QB after Braxton got hurt, and the new guy got better every game as did the rest of the team. The astounding part was going to Jones for the last 3 games and being even better - how many teams could do that? As we inevitable go to more than 4 teams, CFB will become more NFL-like and finishing strong will be an even larger factor. Whether that's good or bad is personal taste.

SoonerForLife92

5/12/2015, 10:44 PM

You can justify it all you want, Ohio State even being in the playoffs was ridiculous. A loss to a 6-6 team at home should matter just as much at the beginning of the season as the end. Also the playoff committee said common opponents would be a factor when obviously it wasn't with TCU and Ohio state.

SoCalBigRed

5/19/2015, 12:33 AM

I still laugh at that texas hire and all those that think he's going to turn it around.

If he doesn't get fired after this coming season, it will be the next one.

Eielson

5/19/2015, 09:41 AM

I bet you that Texas is more of a force than TCU over the next 5 years, and I'd give you a money-back guarantee for 10 years.

soonergirlNeugene

5/19/2015, 05:56 PM

I'm more worried about where we'll be in the next 5 years tbh..

Eielson

5/19/2015, 06:34 PM

I'm more worried about where we'll be in the next 5 years tbh..

As should always be the case. I'm just not willing to say Strong is a bust yet. I think his defenses will be murderous, and I'm not sure about his offenses, but I'd imagine he'll land a VY or two.

Curly Bill

5/20/2015, 12:06 PM

I still laugh at that texas hire and all those that think he's going to turn it around.

If he doesn't get fired after this coming season, it will be the next one.

Same here. The next thing Charlie Strong does as coach at UT to impress me will be his first.

badger

5/20/2015, 12:20 PM

If Charlie did anything right by me, it was pizz off A&Ms' #WRTS recruiting status a bit this past offseason.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NDpn_n7RygE/VNJ75p4HJAI/AAAAAAAACBg/u51vlS4Zk9M/s1600/recruit10.png
A lot of ground to makeup, however.

Eielson

5/20/2015, 01:03 PM

Same here. The next thing Charlie Strong does as coach at UT to impress me will be his first.

But he impressed you at Louisville?

Curly Bill

5/24/2015, 10:53 AM

But he impressed you at Louisville?

Not even remotely.

Eielson

5/24/2015, 06:23 PM

Not even remotely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Sugar_Bowl

birddog

5/24/2015, 07:09 PM

Strong will have great defenses there and it doesn't take a lot to be productive on offense in this conference. We don't have the same teams we did in the first half of the 2000's anymore. It's going to be rough every time we play em now. They hopefully don't win another nc for 30 more years, or ever, but Charlie's got a huge talent pool there and he'll do a nice job for em. Hard to see a top 5 team there anytime soon but he did JUST begin his coaching career at texass.

Curly Bill

5/24/2015, 08:35 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Sugar_Bowl

So...? He beat Florida. Does that put him in the Hall of Fame?

Eielson

5/24/2015, 11:36 PM

So...? He beat Florida. Does that put him in the Hall of Fame?

So you're either a Hall of Famer or not even remotely impressive?

It's incredible how dense you can be.

Curly Bill

5/25/2015, 12:33 AM

So you're either a Hall of Famer or not even remotely impressive?

It's incredible how dense you can be.

It's incredible how hard you try to make meaningless points on here. I'd accuse you of trying to be the smartest guy in the room, but anyone who has posted here for long knows that's not in your grasp - not even remotely.

Eielson

5/25/2015, 01:42 AM

It's incredible how hard you try to make meaningless points on here. I'd accuse you of trying to be the smartest guy in the room, but anyone who has posted here for long knows that's not in your grasp - not even remotely.

You're guilty of what you accuse. I'm getting a mild chuckle at of your attempt at wit, though. That last sentence is faulty, and apparently you can't grasp the difference between attempting and succeeding. Not surprising.

This won't get through your thick skull, yet I'm still going to try, so I think you have a point about me not being the smartest person here. Charlie Strong went 23-3 in his final two years at Louisville. The link I gave you...that was the Sugar Bowl where Charlie Strong smacked the **** out of the best coach in college football, who is clearly a HOFer, and may go down as the greatest ever, and his #3 rated team in the country.

If you think that's not even remotely impressive, then you're a troll. And dense.

RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!

5/25/2015, 12:14 PM

and a Happy Memorial Day to you and yours!

Salt City Sooner

5/25/2015, 08:32 PM

You're guilty of what you accuse. I'm getting a mild chuckle at of your attempt at wit, though. That last sentence is faulty, and apparently you can't grasp the difference between attempting and succeeding. Not surprising.

This won't get through your thick skull, yet I'm still going to try, so I think you have a point about me not being the smartest person here. Charlie Strong went 23-3 in his final two years at Louisville. The link I gave you...that was the Sugar Bowl where Charlie Strong smacked the **** out of the best coach in college football, who is clearly a HOFer, and may go down as the greatest ever, and his #3 rated team in the country.

If you think that's not even remotely impressive, then you're a troll. And dense.
It might just be me, but I'd be willing to bet that there's pretty much nobody outside Muschamp's immediate family who think quite that highly of him.

Curly Bill

5/26/2015, 09:06 AM

You're guilty of what you accuse. I'm getting a mild chuckle at of your attempt at wit, though. That last sentence is faulty, and apparently you can't grasp the difference between attempting and succeeding. Not surprising.

This won't get through your thick skull, yet I'm still going to try, so I think you have a point about me not being the smartest person here. Charlie Strong went 23-3 in his final two years at Louisville. The link I gave you...that was the Sugar Bowl where Charlie Strong smacked the **** out of the best coach in college football, who is clearly a HOFer, and may go down as the greatest ever, and his #3 rated team in the country.

If you think that's not even remotely impressive, then you're a troll. And dense.

As big of a chuckle as I'm getting out of your grammatical proficiency?

...and way to go all fanboy on Charlie Strong. Impressive!

Eielson

5/26/2015, 10:08 AM

It might just be me, but I'd be willing to bet that there's pretty much nobody outside Muschamp's immediate family who think quite that highly of him.

You're right. I forgot Muschamp had a year that good at Florida, so I mistakenly remembered it as Meyer. Still an impressive season, though.

Eielson

5/26/2015, 10:20 AM

As big of a chuckle as I'm getting out of your grammatical proficiency?

Probably not. Which is awkward, because it's weird that you laugh so hard over typos.

...and way to go all fanboy on Charlie Strong. Impressive!

Of course. It's always one extreme or the other.

Curly Bill

5/26/2015, 12:27 PM

Probably not. Which is awkward, because it's weird that you laugh so hard over typos.

More like laugh at someone trying so very hard to earn some innerweb cred by playing (poorly) the smartest guy in the room role, and yet as he attempts to school others, can't properly construct a sentence himself.

...and who fumbled his whole point because he didn't know Muschamp was the Florida coach that Charlie beat.

Anyway, if your angle is going to be the smartest guy in the room role, might wanna have your crap together - it plays better that way.

Serenity Now

5/26/2015, 12:53 PM

So you're an arse-hole to everyone. And here I thought I was special.

badger

5/26/2015, 01:13 PM

I forgot Muschamp had a year that good at Florida, so I mistakenly remembered it as Meyer
I only remember it because Nick Saban whined that he had to win the SEC title game to make the BCS despite being division champ blah blah. Muschamp said that if Saban didn't want to be in the SEC title game that Florida would gladly take his spot. Saban shut up.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8680281/florida-gators-muschamp-complaining-alabama-crimson-tide-nick-saban-let-switch

Just another season where the SEC is a giant circle jerk of a bunch of above average teams winning and losing to other above average teams so therefore, the entire conference is above average. Gah.

Eielson

5/26/2015, 03:31 PM

More like laugh at someone trying so very hard to earn some innerweb cred by playing (poorly) the smartest guy in the room role

Hello pot...

...and who fumbled his whole point because he didn't know Muschamp was the Florida coach that Charlie beat.

My whole point? If you think my whole point was that Strong beat Meyer, then your comprehension is lacking. He still beat the #3 team in the country in a BCS bowl, and went 23-3 over his final two seasons at Louisville. That, at the very least, is remotely impressive.

Sabanball

6/13/2015, 10:01 AM

My top three would be
Ohio St
TCU
Auburn

I'm actually pretty bearish on my Tide this year. We have lots of talent as we always do under Saban, but we are extremely raw and undeveloped in too many important positions, and our schedule is one of the toughest in the country. We'll lose three ball games this year, perhaps a fourth in what I think will be a rebuilding season. I'm extremely optimistic though about our prospects in 2016.

badger

6/15/2015, 08:42 AM

We'll lose three ball games this year, perhaps a fourth in what I think will be a rebuilding season

Don't you just loathe how a 3-4 loss season puts you at 3rd or 4th in your division, almighty SEC West?

Tear Down This Wall

6/15/2015, 10:42 AM

Not to beat a dead horse but... tee hee state of Texas. The power programs are now TCU and Baylor, not Texas and Texas A&M. When whorn and aggy are asked about recently accomplishments, the list is short but clever: Fired Mack Brown, second-best in SEC... head coaching pay. :mack: :rcmad:

Since 1969, there has only been one consensus national champion from Texas - the 2005 Longhorns. Take the Longhorns out of the equation and you have to go back to, I think, 1939 with Texas Aggy.

Look, although my family is Okie, I live in Texas. There are many things to like about the state. However, the overstated value of the Texas and A&M football programs is not one of them.

And, look...in places like Dallas, Houston, etc. the suburbs are filled to the brim with people not born in Texas. As of the 1990 - 1990! - Census over half of the Collin County (Plano, best suburb back then) population was born outside of Texas.

If it was over 50% 25 years ago, it's surely a much higher rate of non-natives making up the population now. And, our governors have been actively recruiting out of state businesses to move here for the better past of the last three decades. So, Texas welcomes eating itself and surrendering its f'ed up identity anyway. Styrofoam dick forks.

The point is, fewer and fewer people in Texas give a flying rip about the Longhorns and Aggies. ESPN can hype them up all they want. Neither has ever produced championship caliber football teams with any hint of regularity. LHN was the biggest con job of the century. Got to hand it to DeLoss.

Screw Texas, A&M...and Tech and Baylor and TCU...all of them. Even screw North Texas, just for good measure.