What Will A Wounded Bear Do? Russia's Economy And Currency Continue To Weaken

[FaninAma]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/russia-pain-spreads-to-stock-and-bond-markets-as-ruble-plunges.html

I really think that Putin will engage in an interventionist action in the Middle East to drive up the price of oil. Will he invade Saudia Arabia? One of the reasons the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor was over FDR's oil policies that they felt were damaging to the Japanese ecpnomy.

[SoonerProphet]

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/russias-unfazed-by-falling-oil-prices

No, he knows an invasion of SA would invite outright war, nor is he going to invade the Baltic states. He is in a pretty good position as it stands, he knows what the end game in Ukraine is while we have no clue. Plus, it ain't even winter yet.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

I would think Putin would try to recover old USSR territory before trying to invade SA. Some of the old Soviet territories have good oil/gas resources and would be easier for them to get. Kazakhstan comes to mind. They have the largest sulfur block in the world (from de-sulfurization for non oil/gas people), you can see it from space...

[FaninAma]

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/russias-unfazed-by-falling-oil-prices

No, he knows an invasion of SA would invite outright war, nor is he going to invade the Baltic states. He is in a pretty good position as it stands, he knows what the end game in Ukraine is while we have no clue. Plus, it ain't even winter yet.

Nice article. I thought this section was interesting:

Then there’s “Project Double Eagle,” which will enable trade partners to price oil in gold. That will allow users to move away from the dollar (and the euro), and conduct their business in something physical and more substantial than fiat money—and Russia’s fellow BRICS nations (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) are cheering it on.
So, perhaps there’s method in Putin’s madness. Russia has not only substantially increased gold production but is stockpiling the stuff, doubling its reserves between 2008 and 2014.

I bet a lot of currency traders would soil themselves if the knew how much gold Russia actually owns.

I do think if oil prices continue to fall and stay low for a few years it will hurt the Russian economy and Putin may start to lose support among the Russian fledgling middle class. Right now I think he enjoys broad support among the Russian people unlike Obama here in the US.

I do think Saudi Arabia's gambit with oil production is meant to hurt the Iranians as much as anything else and will cause those crazy bastards to do something silly in the future.

[FaninAma]

I would think Putin would try to recover old USSR territory before trying to invade SA. Some of the old Soviet territories have good oil/gas resources and would be easier for them to get. Kazakhstan comes to mind. They have the largest sulfur block in the world (from de-sulfurization for non oil/gas people), you can see it from space...

I don't think Putin would directly attack Saudi Arabia but I could certainly see him having one of Russia's client states in the region take a disruptive action against the House of Saud. Anything that threatens the Saudi royal family would cause oil prices to sky rocket. Although China might be a counterbalance to this possibility since they benefit from lower oil prices. Production isn't Russia's problem. Overproduction is their problem as well as an undiversified economy.

Prophet, one disagreement I would have with the author of the article you linked is that Russia may be in a better debt situation than a lot of Western countries but if their cost of borrowing and raising capital continue to rise it will strangle them.

[yermom]

wasn't Saddam's greatest sin pushing for gold over the Dollar for oil?

[Turd_Ferguson]

wasn't Saddam's greatest sin pushing for gold over the Dollar for oil?

Wait, I thought it was gassing innocent civilians?

[Breadburner]

Wait, I thought it was gassing innocent civilians?

That was classic......!!!!!

[yermom]

Wait, I thought it was gassing innocent civilians?

That wasn't enough to get us to topple his government. The oil thing seemed to be though

[hawaii 5-0]

I think a wounded bear would transform himself into a demon, puff himself up like Hulk Hogan then run away from danger, only to suddenly turn, put his hands up, adjust his waistband and charge toward danger, straight into a hail of bullets till thoroughly dead........while unarmed.




5-0

[dwarthog]

I think a wounded bear would transform himself into a demon, puff himself up like Hulk Hogan then run away from danger, only to suddenly turn, put his hands up, adjust his waistband and charge toward danger, straight into a hail of bullets till thoroughly dead........while unarmed.




5-0

No doubt emboldened by his recent bullying of a 5'5" 135lbs store owner at the local grab and run.

[Turd_Ferguson]

I think a wounded bear would transform himself into a demon, puff himself up like Hulk Hogan then run away from danger, only to suddenly turn, put his hands up, adjust his waistband and charge toward danger, straight into a hail of bullets till thoroughly dead........while unarmed.




5-0

Naw, Putin is like your typical ***** lib. He'll probably just move into a grass shack and act like a ****'n ****** bag the rest of his life.

[FaninAma]

And it begins:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-increases-key-interest-rate-to-17-to-stem-ruble-decline.html

[REDREX]

They produce very little other than oil--------A gov't run economy really works doesn't it?

[dwarthog]

They produce very little other than oil--------A gov't run economy really works doesn't it?

Now just because their exercise of government running the economy has hit a little bump in the road doesn't mean the concept has lost any of it's lustre.

[FaninAma]

If Russia and China are successful with de-coupling the US Dollar as the world reserve for pricing oil watch how the Wall Street-Washington DC axis reacts.

[FaninAma]

And the Ruble continues its free fall. This will not end well. Also remeber that Russia is the biggest buyer of European goods. As the Ruble falls the purchasing power of the Russian consumer falls. Europe is already teetering in the brink of another recession. This could very well force them over the cliff.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/12/16/moscows-midnight-interest-rate-shocker-reactions/

[SoonerorLater]

Looks like it isn't all bad news for Putin.

"But for Putin, there was a consolation prize to all this unpleasantry. This morning, he was announced Russia’s Person of the Year, selected by the overwhelming majority of respondents to a nationwide poll. Respondents cited conflict in Ukraine, the Sochi Olympics, and the reclaiming of Crimea as triumphs deserving of the accolade, but the award has become something of a tradition. Vladimir Putin has been named Person of the Year in Russia for fifteen years in a row."

http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomgara/russias-meltdown-will-shake-the-world-from-tajikistan-to-tok

[SoonerProphet]

And the Ruble continues its free fall. This will not end well. Also remeber that Russia is the biggest buyer of European goods. As the Ruble falls the purchasing power of the Russian consumer falls. Europe is already teetering in the brink of another recession. This could very well force them over the cliff.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/12/16/moscows-midnight-interest-rate-shocker-reactions/

The Russians have a few cards to play. He can take a shot at the Euros buy encouraging domestic products and a soft embargo on euro exports. People love guns, they make some good ones, might be a good time to buy. Plus, it ain't even winter yet.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-moment-crisis-moscow-might-be-down-not-out-11880?page=2

The second is the response of the Asians. Economic crisis makes the Russians more willing to compromise their demands, especially with China. With Western imports becoming more expensive, China may sense an opportunity to push ahead with a more favorable ruble-yuan exchange rate because with the current peg to the dollar, even Chinese exports to Russia would become more expensive. President Xi Jinping may be more willing to extend an economic lifeline to Russia as a way to preserve Chinese equities. And Japan remains a cypher. Putin's nationalist bonanza in claiming Crimea may give him the maneuvering room to cut a deal with Japan that would see some concessions to Tokyo over the disputed islands—allowing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to burnish his nationalist credentials—and in return, increasing Japanese investment and support to the Russian economy. The islands question will surely be on the agenda of the working group planning Putin's 2015 visit to Japan.

[8timechamps]

Things are getting very real, very quickly for Putin. He's going to be pushed into a corner here pretty soon, and I highly doubt he'll change his political stance on much of anything.

So, when does the countdown begin for Russia going to silver/gold as currency? Of course that'll fail.