One Play the Deciding Factor Fallacy

[PalmBeachSooner]

Saying one play was the deciding factor in the outcome of a game is bull schmidt.

If TK didn't throw that pick-6 we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG before half time we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG late in the 4th we win.
If the XP isn't blocked we win.

That's over simplifying the situation. The outcome of a game is the culmination of every single play in the game. I hate the 'IF' game. It's what losers do. In the end they're just excuses. Nobody is taking responsibility and that sucks.

As Yogi Berra once said, "we made too many wrong mistakes today".

[cvsooner]

No, if the XP isn't blocked it's tied and we go to overtime. The two FG misses were/are so uncharacteristic of Hunnicutt. If you had told me ahead of time that he would miss one, much less two, short field goals in that game I wouldn't have believed it.

Each play leads to the one after that until time runs out. So to some extent, yes, one play can decide the outcome. Ask Notre Dame and Florida State that question, why don't you?

[mainline13]

Saying one play was the deciding factor in the outcome of a game is bull schmidt.

If TK didn't throw that pick-6 we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG before half time we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG late in the 4th we win.
If the XP isn't blocked we win.

That's over simplifying the situation. The outcome of a game is the culmination of every single play in the game. I hate the 'IF' game. It's what losers do. In the end they're just excuses. Nobody is taking responsibility and that sucks.

As Yogi Berra once said, "we made too many wrong mistakes today".

There is an exception that comes immediately to mind. If the cheatin' Pac-10 refs had been forced to notice that Allen Patrick had the ball, we could have taken a knee a few times and gone home a winner. Sure, guys have lost the ball in Victory formation, but it sure is rare.

[EatLeadCommie]

If Hunnicut makes everything he should have, we still are only up by 6 and have to stop them.

I'm more angry about having Neal throw a ball in the RZ and having to settle for a 19 yard FG that we didn't get because our playcalling went limp (again) in the RZ.

[ddub0224]

Saying one play was the deciding factor in the outcome of a game is bull schmidt.

If TK didn't throw that pick-6 we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG before half time we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG late in the 4th we win.
If the XP isn't blocked we win.

That's over simplifying the situation. The outcome of a game is the culmination of every single play in the game. I hate the 'IF' game. It's what losers do. In the end they're just excuses. Nobody is taking responsibility and that sucks.

As Yogi Berra once said, "we made too many wrong mistakes today".

So, can we say that four plays changed the outcome of the game?

[cvsooner]

I'd say it's more like six plays, but yeah.

[SoonerorLater]

We lost this game through a series of low probability events with any one of them not happening we either win or have a chance to win the game. Of course we beat Texas under the same premise the week before.

[soonercastor]

The missed XP, to me, is one of the coaches bigger mistakes in the game, that and the decision to have Neal pass there ...but that's mainly on Neal.
That dude has blocked XPs before after an amazing drive like that and everyone celebrating, it's the coaches responsibility to remind them about that threat and make sure that doesn't happen.

[Eielson]

So you hate the one-play decided the game mentality? I'm cool with that. But we really were one play away from winning this game.

[Soonerjeepman]

No, if the XP isn't blocked it's tied and we go to overtime. The two FG misses were/are so uncharacteristic of Hunnicutt. If you had told me ahead of time that he would miss one, much less two, short field goals in that game I wouldn't have believed it.

Each play leads to the one after that until time runs out. So to some extent, yes, one play can decide the outcome. Ask Notre Dame and Florida State that question, why don't you?

I'm pretty sure that's why he missed the XP/FG at the end...trying to swing it away from the middle so it wouldn't get blocked. Wonder if the line coach went and told him "hey that block was on us, you do your job...straight up the middle, we'll get that guy blocked".

[BoulderSooner79]

The horns were one play from beating us.

[stoops the eternal pimp]

Score a touchdown after having 1st and goal from the 4 the kicker isn't kicking the game winner..so add those 3 plays to it..

[BoulderSooner79]

I'm pretty sure that's why he missed the XP/FG at the end...trying to swing it away from the middle so it wouldn't get blocked. Wonder if the line coach went and told him "hey that block was on us, you do your job...straight up the middle, we'll get that guy blocked".

Hard to know unless Hunnicutt tells us. But that kick was not just wide, it was super low too. It wasn't just ugly, it was Jimmy Stevens ugly. In fact, Jimmy would have kicked it low and it would have gone between the arms of a defender, hit the left goal post, fallen down to the cross bar, paused for a second balanced on the cross bar and then fallen down and been GOOD. And we would have had a whole thread about how we need to get rid of Stevens because all of you fat guys out there are afraid you'll have heart attacks if we don't.

[BoulderSooner79]

Score a touchdown after having 1st and goal from the 4 the kicker isn't kicking the game winner..so add those 3 plays to it..

Ding ding ding! Winnah! Now I certainly didn't expect to miss the FG, but I figured there was a very good chance with 4 minutes remaining that KSU would drive back down and beat us with a FG as time expired. I would have loved for the defense to have a chance to prove me wrong, but that is the sort of medicine the football gods dole out when you phail from 1st and goal at the 4. Had we punched it in, I would have felt pretty good our guys could have stopped KSU from driving all the way for a TD (but only after getting scarily close).

[cvsooner]

The horns were one play from beating us.

True. Funny how a pick six in all three games wound up being really such a key factor; guess the bigger lesson there is turnovers for points.

[cvsooner]

Hard to know unless Hunnicutt tells us. But that kick was not just wide, it was super low too. It wasn't just ugly, it was Jimmy Stevens ugly. In fact, Jimmy would have kicked it low and it would have gone between the arms of a defender, hit the left goal post, fallen down to the cross bar, paused for a second balanced on the cross bar and then fallen down and been GOOD. And we would have had a whole thread about how we need to get rid of Stevens because all of you fat guys out there are afraid you'll have heart attacks if we don't.

Ha! True! You looked at Stevens' stats and he was a pretty successful field goal kicker via attempts/made percentage, but he kicked an ugly ball.

[BoulderSooner79]

Ha! True! You looked at Stevens' stats and he was a pretty successful field goal kicker via attempts/made percentage, but he kicked an ugly ball.

And the heart exercise was good for us, even though we're all wimps.

:highly_amused:

[Jason White's Third Knee]

I generally don't complain about play calling and so forth, but the pass to the out route was the single dumbest thing I saw that game. Throwing across your body 30 yards from the one while the corner is staring down the qb is just... eh... uh... an out route?!?!?!!

I can forgive the razzle dazzle (hey, it has worked even though I don't like that we resort to it). Hunnicutt gets a pass.

[cvsooner]

Hartley has the single best year percentage, but career, Hunnicutt is still tops. Hartley's only miss was the (most likely illegally) blocked FG at Oregon (grrrrrrr....). Jimmy Stevens is third career wise!

Tony DiRienzo isn't on the list because back in those heady days of the wishbone we didn't kick many field goals.

FG PERCENTAGE • CAREER
Minimum 20 attempts
Pct. Player Years Made Att.
1. .845 Michael Hunnicutt 2011-Pres. 71 84
2. .810 Garrett Hartley 2004-07 47 58
3. .808 Jimmy Stevens 2008-11 42 52
4. .717 Trey DiCarlo 2002-04 43 60
5. .698 R.D. Lashar 1987-90 44 63
6. .686 Tim Lashar 1983-86 48 70
7. .667 Tim Duncan 1999-01 48 72
8. .651 Scott Blanton 1991-94 41 63
9. .647 Uwe von Schamann 1976-78 33 51
10. .646 Jeremy Alexander 1994-97 31 48

[cvsooner]

I generally don't complain about play calling and so forth, but the pass to the out route was the single dumbest thing I saw that game. Throwing across your body 30 yards from the one while the corner is staring down the qb is just... eh... uh... an out route?!?!?!

The only way I can see that pass being successful depends upon two factors: one, they're absolutely not expecting because it's a really dumb idea, or two, you pump fake to get the guy to bite and then the WR does a hitch and go and you throw it out there somewhere for him to catch it. Otherwise, it shouldn't even be an option on that play.

[Soonerjeepman]

Hard to know unless Hunnicutt tells us. But that kick was not just wide, it was super low too. It wasn't just ugly, it was Jimmy Stevens ugly. In fact, Jimmy would have kicked it low and it would have gone between the arms of a defender, hit the left goal post, fallen down to the cross bar, paused for a second balanced on the cross bar and then fallen down and been GOOD. And we would have had a whole thread about how we need to get rid of Stevens because all of you fat guys out there are afraid you'll have heart attacks if we don't.

#1 I "resemble" that.... ;-)

#2 I wasn't bitc$ing, I was merely pointing out that I wonder if he "tried" to swing it....yes it was a horrible looking low knuckle ball...

#3 LOL on Jimmy....so true

[cvsooner]

Stoops yanked Stevens after two games, though he was perfect 4 for 4 on the year.

[vtsooner21]

When a team depends on a kicker to win their games, bad things can happen. Responsibility rests upon the entire team to not put Hunnicut in that position. The "cake" of the offense should be putting lots of points on the board by doing things well; the Kicker just supplies the "icing"...Please pardon the metaphors.
Boomer

[BoulderSooner79]

Stoops yanked Stevens after two games, though he was perfect 4 for 4 on the year.

Yep. That's the only time I've ever seen a kicker lose his job for a made FG. It happened in that FSU game in '11 when his short range FG sealed the contest. It was the ugliest made FG imaginable. I would have given anything for one of those beauties this past Saturday.

To be fair to Stevens, he was dealing with a pulled hammy in that game. That, and he just wasn't very good.

[Snrinhouston]

Saying one play was the deciding factor in the outcome of a game is bull schmidt.

If TK didn't throw that pick-6 we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG before half time we win.
If Hunnycut doesn't miss the FG late in the 4th we win.
If the XP isn't blocked we win.

That's over simplifying the situation. The outcome of a game is the culmination of every single play in the game. I hate the 'IF' game. It's what losers do. In the end they're just excuses. Nobody is taking responsibility and that sucks.

As Yogi Berra once said, "we made too many wrong mistakes today".

Agreed.

Although some plays have huge ripple effects beyond the single play. i.e. Allen Patrick's fumble against Tech in 2007. Or deciding to put Demarco on kick return coverage to begin the 2008 Big XII Championship Game.

[Jason White's Third Knee]

I generally don't complain about play calling and so forth, but the pass to the out route was the single dumbest thing I saw that game. Throwing across your body 30 yards from the one while the corner is staring down the qb is just... eh... uh... an out route?!?!?!

The only way I can see that pass being successful depends upon two factors: one, they're absolutely not expecting because it's a really dumb idea, or two, you pump fake to get the guy to bite and then the WR does a hitch and go and you throw it out there somewhere for him to catch it. Otherwise, it shouldn't even be an option on that play.

Hitch and go would have been great! What the hell? See? I still don't get the called route. Yeesh.

[cvsooner]

What kills me is we have a run-pass option play from OUR goal line and apparently we don't have one from THEIR goal line. Seriously? KSU has 8 to 10 guys on the line of scrimmage and we line up and try to push it in three straight times? With 5 O-linemen and a couple of TE/FB types. 8 to 10 is more bodies than 7, even if the ball carrier is Samaje Perrine. And with all of that, he still almost got in. Just dumb playcalling. Sometimes I really have to wonder if Heupel was really the commander on the field during 2000.

[ashley]

I never ever criticize the coaches, and haven't for fourteen years. But, to be backed up to our own goal line and throw a five yard out from the right hash to the left was the worst thing I have ever seen. Nobody does that and I mean nobody.

[Snrinhouston]

What kills me is we have a run-pass option play from OUR goal line and apparently we don't have one from THEIR goal line. Seriously? KSU has 8 to 10 guys on the line of scrimmage and we line up and try to push it in three straight times? With 5 O-linemen and a couple of TE/FB types. 8 to 10 is more bodies than 7, even if the ball carrier is Samaje Perrine. And with all of that, he still almost got in. Just dumb playcalling. Sometimes I really have to wonder if Heupel was really the commander on the field during 2000.


Amen. See Forest Valora in Jan 1, 1981 Orange Bowl.

[SoonerorLater]

I never ever criticize the coaches, and haven't for fourteen years. But, to be backed up to our own goal line and throw a five yard out from the right hash to the left was the worst thing I have ever seen. Nobody does that and I mean nobody.

Ah Ha! The element of surprise. I guess it would have worked better if they actually were surprised.

[mainline13]

When a team depends on a kicker to win their games, bad things can happen. Responsibility rests upon the entire team to not put Hunnicut in that position. The "cake" of the offense should be putting lots of points on the board by doing things well; the Kicker just supplies the "icing"...Please pardon the metaphors.
Boomer

"Icing?" When did this become a hockey board?

[vtsooner21]

"Icing?" When did this become a hockey board?

The moment it popped into your mind, mainline13