Wow, that was a rough one...

[8timechamps]

Just not much 'good' to take away from this one.

We got out-played and out-coached for a large part of the game, and in the end we couldn't make the plays we needed to make...and TCU did.

I'm going to rewatch the game before I do any kind of break-down.

I was nervous about this game, and am no "shocked" we lost, but a loss always sucks.

As much as I hate losing, I always think about the players and how they must feel. They live and breathe the game, and I'm sure they are hurting far more than anyone posting here. I hope they don't let this loss define them. There's a lot of football left to play, and the playoff race is still pretty wide open.

In closing, I would like to publicly ask that any future losses be night games. It's much easier to go straight to bed after a loss than have the rest of the day to avoid the media.

BOOMER!

[BoulderSooner79]

Whew! And adult has entered the building - thanks, 8time!

:highly_amused:

[8timechamps]

Whew! And adult has entered the building - thanks, 8time!

:highly_amused:

Well, I've had time to vent all of my child-like behavior. :)

Before I came to the site, I watched Knight's 'press conference'...you could feel his pain. He knows he didn't play well, and he admitted it, but man I like that kid. It just brought it back into perspective (which is why I always want to watch the post game press conferences after a loss).

[Aries]

TCU is a good team and just out played us. Knight had a rough game, especially second half but this game will not define us. Saxet will face our wrath.

[BoulderSooner79]

TCU is a good team and just out played us. Knight had a rough game, especially second half but this game will not define us. Saxet will face our wrath.

Unless we get put on upset alert.

[rock on sooner]

Unless we get put on upset alert.

Heh....

[aurorasooner]

Rough one alright.
I could live with all the earlier screw-ups if our offense would have just been somewhat competitive in our last 3 possessions. After looking at the stats our D just flat wasn't very good today (or the TCU O was all-World) and M Stoops got pwned by another mobile QB, but at least they still got 2 TOs in the 4th to give us a chance.
Patterson's D game plan was just way ahead of whichever coach was in charge of our offense, though.

Pretty much went the way a few analysts said it would. TCU's secondary would play 1 on 1 against our receivers, load the box and shut our run game down, and then make TK win it.

What surprised me the most though is that our with our QB obviously struggling, our staff (from what I remember) only gave him one easy throw, and that was the screen, and we never ran it again.

[BoulderSooner79]

Rough one alright.
I could live with all the earlier screw-ups if our offense would have just been somewhat competitive in our last 3 possessions. After looking at the stats our D just flat wasn't very good today (or the TCU O was all-World) and M Stoops got pwned by another mobile QB, but at least they still got 2 TOs in the 4th to give us a chance.
Patterson's D game plan was just way ahead of whichever coach was in charge of our offense, though.

Pretty much went the way a few analysts said it would. TCU's secondary would play 1 on 1 against our receivers, load the box and shut our run game down, and then make TK win it.

What surprised me the most though is that our with our QB obviously struggling, our staff (from what I remember) only gave him one easy throw, and that was the screen, and we never ran it again.

Pretty much agree with all of that. Folks argue Perine should have gotten the ball more, but he got 25 carries and they held him to 3.5 yds/carry. That's a heavy load with less than stellar result. When TCU gave us a chance with 2 turnovers late in the game, that's when good teams make a big play and make lesser teams pay for their mistakes. We didn't have it in us.

[okiewaker]

Well said 8time.

[BlownGP]

Tough loss, I felt it was TCU's day..
They should have had at least 2-3 more turn overs. They fumbled the ball in the end zone, tipped ball went right in their receivers, Boykin fumbled in the first half and he jumped back on it.

I was kinda shocked how TCU's defense played, but then again our offesne is can be down right crappy like we've seen over the short season. Our defense would make up for it but it caught up to us in this game.

[Soonerjeepman]

I totally agree, the kids played, got beat. I do totally put the TO and time management on Stoops and the staff. Seriously, I would bet that we waste at least 1 TO a game because we are still trying to get the play in with under 10 seconds....THAT just burns my a$$ more than anything...it screams ineptness on the coaches. Stoops will never admit there is a problem in that area...ever. Okay...sorry.

[Blue]

I hate running from the shotgun on 4th and a half yard. Your starting from 5 yards back.

[TrophyCollector]

I hate running from the shotgun on 4th and a half yard. Your starting from 5 yards back.

How else to you expect to run up and down give your OL the call in the last 5 seconds of the play clock? A QB can't do that if he is under center.

[Sooner91ATL]

I was watching from a "stream" overseas and listening to the radio call and also watching the 4-way camera on soonersports. none of it was streaming very well, and the radio call was about 7 minutes behind the actual fox stream, which was frozen 50% of the time. Hard for me to detect any nuances, but my overall gut feeling is that we lapsed back into that uninspired approach that plagues us for a few games each year, where there is a lot of standing around, hands on hips early, no pop or fire. Flat, would be the word that comes to mind.

[5noubus]

Pretty much went the way a few analysts said it would. TCU's secondary would play 1 on 1 against our receivers, load the box and shut our run game down, and then make TK win it.

This is what I don't understand.
Why weren't we prepared for that?
Where was plan b? What happen to our defense?

[cherokeebrewer]

Most tough games are won or lost in the trenches. We got whupped on both sides of the ball, yet still had a chance to win it in the end. Two plays to get 2 yards and then came the cluster f**k. Plenty of blame to go around in this game.

[Since71ASooner4Life]

It aint the end of the world. Win the rest and almost certainly they will end up in the top 4.

Let's hope for a (another) blowout next saturday

[cherokeebrewer]

And let me add, Boykin had a great game and TCU beat us fair and square...credit to their team.

[dwarthog]

No doubt TCU beat us fair and square. To a man they outplayed us in the areas of the game that matter the most.

[cherokeebrewer]

It aint the end of the world.

I don't know man, we got ebola, but yeah, the Sun did come up this morning...so there's that.

[Tear Down This Wall]

Stoops farts away two or three every season. No reason to lose to TCU. But, when your coaching staff starts Ross over Perine and can't figure out that your QB can't hit the broadside of a barn....

We again go 10-3. And, Stoops is given an extension to 2040.

As stated before, this is more a business machine these days than a championship machine. As long as money is being made, that's all that counts to these guys.

We're Texas Lite.

[cherokeebrewer]

Stoops farts away two or three every season. No reason to lose to TCU. But, when your coaching staff starts Ross over Perine and can't figure out that your QB can't hit the broadside of a barn....

We again go 10-3. And, Stoops is given an extension to 2040.

As stated before, this is more a business machine these days than a championship machine. As long as money is being made, that's all that counts to these guys.

No doubt TK was not playing well, but what do you do as a coach...give up on him? I understand the frustration, but give TCU some credit, they're pretty good. The bolded part is simply not true.

[SoonerMarkVA]

No doubt TK was not playing well, but what do you do as a coach...give up on him? I understand the frustration, but give TCU some credit, they're pretty good. The bolded part is simply not true.

Perhaps the bolded part refers to administrators and other decision-makers, as opposed to the coaches and players. I think you're absolutely right, that winning championships and being the best is very important to coaches and players. But maybe for Boren, the regents, whoever else involved looks more at the money angle and would, in fact, settle for no championships as long as big money was still coming in.

[Eielson]

But, when your coaching staff starts Ross over Perine

I'm sure those 4 carries Ross got yesterday are what did us in...

[cherokeebrewer]

Perhaps the bolded part refers to administrators and other decision-makers, as opposed to the coaches and players. I think you're absolutely right, that winning championships and being the best is very important to coaches and players. But maybe for Boren, the regents, whoever else involved looks more at the money angle and would, in fact, settle for no championships as long as big money was still coming in.

I'm not sure why Boren or the Regents would even enter the conversation unless someone wants Bob Stoops to be fired.

[SoonerMarkVA]

I'm not sure why Boren or the Regents would even enter the conversation unless someone wants Bob Stoops to be fired.

I think that's exactly where the conversation lay. I obviously don't know TDTW's personal feelings about what he wants for a timeline (not that he really holds back) but I read him to mean that if a change were needed at HC in order to win championships, that would never happen because even at 1-2 losses per year, the money machine is so intense that they wouldn't consider making that change. Now if the money dried up--that's a different story.

[aurorasooner]

Pretty much went the way a few analysts said it would. TCU's secondary would play 1 on 1 against our receivers, load the box and shut our run game down, and then make TK win it.

This is what I don't understand.
Why weren't we prepared for that?
Where was plan b? What happen to our defense?I heard a pretty good rant by one of the analysts (I think it was Curtis Conway) on that PAC recap show early this am (watching it because there was nothing else CFB related on). He was a former player and not a former coach and he was talking about UCLA and Hundley.
He said when are these coaches (talking about N Malzone (sp-?) the UCLA OC) going to take some responsibility and quit blaming the players for not executing when things/plays don't work and quit calling these plays that don't work over and over. He was talking about the UCLA O line letting Hundley getting sacked so much. He basically said when are they going to call some quick dump-off passes or runs or just something to change the offense up.
Slick Rick and the other panelists just sat there shocked. It was pretty good. I was going, yeah we know, we've seen it too.

Of course, you don't know how much of this stuff is scripted to get a rise out of their audience and he was just the designated ''"bad guy, sort of like all that crap from Skippy and Stephen A. and most of the other CFB network talk shows these days.

[Tear Down This Wall]

I think that's exactly where the conversation lay. I obviously don't know TDTW's personal feelings about what he wants for a timeline (not that he really holds back) but I read him to mean that if a change were needed at HC in order to win championships, that would never happen because even at 1-2 losses per year, the money machine is so intense that they wouldn't consider making that change. Now if the money dried up--that's a different story.

Right on the money. Like Texas gave Mack and DeLoss too much leeway, we do the same. It's easy to get lulled into what Texas got lulled into: "We won 10 and only lost the others by a few plays here and there. So, everything is okay." It's lazy. We're 13 seasons past a national title; just one shy of the 1986-1999 drought.

As far as the Ross/Perine and QB discussion, when we line up from play number one, Perine should be in the backfield. Ross shouldn't even be part of the equation anymore unless Perine is injured. Ditto Ford when he' s healthy again.

We are stuck with Knight because he accidentally had a great game against Alabama. He throws behind receivers because his arm isn't strong enough to get the ball where it needs to be when the receiver breaks open.

I'm more and more believing Saban when he says his team viewed the Sugar Bowl as a consolation.

[BoulderSooner79]

I'm more and more believing Saban when he says his team viewed the Sugar Bowl as a consolation.

That wouldn't cause TK to be accurate. He's got a confidence issue for whatever reason. Also, this team is not the same team as in the Sugar Bowl. May be better in some areas (D-line), but definitely weaker in others as we haven't adequately replaced Saunders, Bester or Colvin. Perine is running very well, but we haven't replace the critical catches we were getting from Brennen Clay at RB. Maybe we got those from Ford when he returns.

[Eielson]

ROSS HAD 4 CARRIES, FORD HAD 0 CARRIES, AND PERINE HAD 25 CARRIES

[SoonerMarkVA]

Yeah, I like Perine--a lot--but Ford is still our best all-around back. I think the tandem of Ford and Perine will squeeze Ross out to be situational. I think Ross could be very effective if we can find some way to get him the ball out in space where his jets take over. But both Ford and Perine just punish a D, and Ford has better top-end speed and looks (thus far) to be better receiving.

[BoulderSooner79]

Last year the TCU game was a clear omen to the horn game because the horns would play a similar defense, but had a much better offense than TCU. I didn't think this year would be similar because the horns are so weak on offense this year. Now I fear it is similar to last year. The horns have been stout on D and held Baylor to less than 400 yards offense and 21 points. We will not be able to move the ball with consistency using the power running game. The horn offense is weak, but their QB is mobile and improving with each game. We've given up 500 and 470 yards in the last 2 games, so I'm starting to wonder if we can totally shut them down.

One thing you can bet the house on: the horns will do everything possible to stop the run and force TK to beat man coverage with his arm. If TK continues to struggle, could be a long day.

[cherokeebrewer]

Right on the money. Like Texas gave Mack and DeLoss too much leeway, we do the same. It's easy to get lulled into what Texas got lulled into:

Mack Brown's record his last 4 years

5-7
8-5
9-4
8-5

Bob Stoops' record the last 4 years

12-2
10-3
10-3
11-2

[Curly Bill]

Mack Brown's record his last 4 years

5-7
8-5
9-4
8-5

Bob Stoops' record the last 4 years

12-2
10-3
10-3
11-2

So, you're happy with losing at least 2 games every year, or is it enough that Bob isn't Mack Brown?

[cherokeebrewer]

So, you're happy with losing at least 2 games every year, or is it enough that Bob isn't Mack Brown?

Not happy anytime we lose, but not ready to fire the coach who has won the most games in OU football history either.

[TrophyCollector]

Not happy anytime we lose, but not ready to fire the coach who has won the most games in OU football history either.

Yea, just change the expectations. Now we can say, "The history of Oklahoma is about winning a lot of games."

[BoulderSooner79]

Yea, just change the expectations. Now we can say, "The history of Oklahoma is about winning a lot of games."

No, keep expecting to win every game and keep throwing fits when it doesn't happen. Tried and true.

[Curly Bill]

No, keep expecting to win every game and keep throwing fits when it doesn't happen. Tried and true.

It's not worth throwing a fit over anymore. You can take it to the bank that OU will lose at least two games every year - the only mystery is which two will it be.

[8timechamps]

No, keep expecting to win every game and keep throwing fits when it doesn't happen. Tried and true.

Realistic expectations can go a looooong way toward enjoying the season...every season! :)

[Curly Bill]

But hey! We kept the PC police somewhat on our sides with the Shannon and Mixon dealios....

...so we got that going for us!


Oh wait...DGB. Damn, we can't even do PC right!

[JLMSOONER]

The competition has ramped up over the last few decades as well as attempts to level the playing field. I hate it when we lose, but in reality the gap has narrowed from bottom to top and it seems there are tons more athletes out there. Every week you have to play at the top of your game or someone will knock you off. Stoops wins a ton of games, but he drops a few now and then too. The 48 game streak has been there for awhile and you really don't see it threatened much and maybe never will again.

[TrophyCollector]

Realistic expectations can go a looooong way toward enjoying the season...every season! :)

And to becoming Michigan or Tennessee or Texas.

[Curly Bill]

The competition has ramped up over the last few decades as well as attempts to level the playing field. I hate it when we lose, but in reality the gap has narrowed from bottom to top and it seems there are tons more athletes out there. Every week you have to play at the top of your game or someone will knock you off. Stoops wins a ton of games, but he drops a few now and then too. The 48 game streak has been there for awhile and you really don't see it threatened much and maybe never will again.

If by "now and then" you mean every season, I agree with you.

[Curly Bill]

And to becoming Michigan or Tennessee or Texas.

Bravo! This is a post deserving of SPEK!

[SoCalBigRed]

I take solace in all those teams losing yesterday and next week, OUr part is going to be taken OUt on texas. Some payback coming.

[8timechamps]

And to becoming Michigan or Tennessee or Texas.

So, you expect 12-0 every year?

[JLMSOONER]

Well, I think most seasons. Very few undefeated teams that matter anymore Let's face it, the last championship we won took some luck. There was more than 1 game that year that could have gone either way. Winning them all against good competition doesn't happen often.

[tulsaoilerfan]

The wide open offenses have balanced the playing field considerably

[Curly Bill]

So, you expect 12-0 every year?

Nope, quit expecting that about oh...7 or 8 years ago. Hell, I don't even bother wishing for it anymore - why waste the energy on something that isn't gonna happen again in the near future.

[Snrinhouston]

Well, I think most seasons. Very few undefeated teams that matter anymore Let's face it, the last championship we won took some luck. There was more than 1 game that year that could have gone either way. Winning them all against good competition doesn't happen often.

Very few teams are so dominating that luck was no factor in winning a national championship. The '95 Huskers would be an example of that.

[8timechamps]

Nope, quit expecting that about oh...7 or 8 years ago. Hell, I don't even bother wishing for it anymore - why waste the energy on something that isn't gonna happen again in the near future.

I don't either. That has nothing to do with Stoops, recruiting, etc. etc. It's just how things are now. There are many factors at play, but undefeated seasons are mighty rare these days.

[TrophyCollector]

So, you expect 12-0 every year?

Find an interview with Stoops at the end of the 99 season (before the bowl game). Some reporter was congratulating him on a great job of 7-4 in his first season. He got really pissy and defensive (as he does with reporters) and basically said that we could have and should have won all 11.

I'd like to see some if that attitude back in place of "we just got outplayed and out coached". I'd like to not see the same mistakes repeated season after season.

If we lose because the other team plays better, no issue. When we lose because we can't get play calls in after a timeout and because we line up 3 defenders against 4 receivers, that should not be tolerated by any Oklahoma coach, player, donor or supporter.

[8timechamps]

Well, I think most seasons. Very few undefeated teams that matter anymore Let's face it, the last championship we won took some luck. There was more than 1 game that year that could have gone either way. Winning them all against good competition doesn't happen often.

Winning it all always takes a little luck. Whether it be with injuries or the way the ball bounces, there's always a small amount of the unknown, the one think you can't prepare for, that has to happen for it all to work out.

[Snrinhouston]

Find an interview with Stoops at the end of the 99 season (before the bowl game). Some reporter was congratulating him on a great job of 7-4 in his first season. He got really pissy and defensive (as he does with reporters) and basically said that we could have and should have won all 11.

I'd like to see some if that attitude back in place of "we just got outplayed and out coached". I'd like to not see the same mistakes repeated season after season.

If we lose because the other team plays better, no issue. When we lose because we can't get play calls in after a timeout and because we line up 3 defenders against 4 receivers, that should not be tolerated by any Oklahoma coach, player, donor or supporter.

I dunno if you'll ever see the '99 Stoops again. How many of us are the same versions of ourselves 15 years later? With the same circumstances, the same motivations?

Lot ha$ changed in Bob's life in the pa$t 15 years. Now I'm not saying he's gotten soft or still isn't a fiery competitor. But he may not be at the same EXTREME level he was back in 1999. Remember, he was scared in 1999. Scared that taking the OU job was a mistake. We all know what a great motivator fear is.

[8timechamps]

Find an interview with Stoops at the end of the 99 season (before the bowl game). Some reporter was congratulating him on a great job of 7-4 in his first season. He got really pissy and defensive (as he does with reporters) and basically said that we could have and should have won all 11.

I'd like to see some if that attitude back in place of "we just got outplayed and out coached". I'd like to not see the same mistakes repeated season after season.

If we lose because the other team plays better, no issue. When we lose because we can't get play calls in after a timeout and because we line up 3 defenders against 4 receivers, that should not be tolerated by any Oklahoma coach, player, donor or supporter.

Oh, there were plenty of mistakes made yesterday (enough to go around to the coaches and players), you'll get no argument from me there. However, you didn't answer the question, do you really expect to go 12-0 every year? Of course you don't. You'd have to be delusional to feel that way every year.

I understand the frustration. I get that losing sucks, especially at Oklahoma. What I don't get is the mentality that Stoops is never going to lead us to another title, or he's just not good enough. That attitude is lost on me.

Without getting into a philosophical debate, I'll just say that Stoops has preformed exceptional in his time at Oklahoma, and leave it at that.

Losses suck, and there's no way to spin it otherwise. I hate losing to a team that outplayed us as much as I hate beating ourselves, my hatred does not differentiate. But, this is one loss to a ranked team (it could be worse, ya know?). I'll let the season play out before I start kicking the dog and burning down the house.

I respect that some take loses more personal than I do, but I ask that you respect my perspective on the loss too.

[Curly Bill]

I don't either. That has nothing to do with Stoops, recruiting, etc. etc. It's just how things are now. There are many factors at play, but undefeated seasons are mighty rare these days.

Well, it has more than a little something to do with Stoops, recruiting, etc... I mean if it doesn't have anything to do with Stoops why don't we just replace him with the head coach from Norman High and save a few million a year?

[8timechamps]

Well, it has more than a little something to do with Stoops, recruiting, etc... I mean if it doesn't have anything to do with Stoops why don't we just replace him with the head coach from Norman High and save a few million a year?

Okay, okay...it has a *little* to do with Stoops. Although, I'm pretty good at Madden on the Xbox, so there's a chance I could get an offer when Stoops decides to hang 'em up.

[manateepower]

I think the lack of great quarterback play on a consistent basis is largely attributed to poor coaching, specifically Huepel.

Landry regressed throughout the 2011 and 2012 season, in terms of consistency. He went from a fairly shifty quarterback occasionally making plays on his feet therefore opening passing to a dead duck in the pocket who couldn't move the ball without Ryan Broyles.

Blake Bellgot progressively worse with each passing week last season (Let's not forget he had pretty good games against Tulsa and Notre Dame, and threw the ball well)

Now we move to Trevor Knight. Fast, elusive, capable of an accurate ball. No reason anyone of his talent at this stage in his career should be struggling as much as he did. For some reason we completely abandoned the short passing game (swing passes, and quick slants, which we did call in our first touch down drive, only to abandon it). Huepel kept calling long bombs when Knight's confidence was falling apart, and left him out to die with a problem that could have been fixed by setting up some shorter plays.

As optimistic as I was entering the season. I was not sure whether or not we had the right OC to win the championship, and now I am even less sure. Huepel is now in his fourth year as OC and still struggles with basic play clock management, burning multiple timeouts, showing no awareness of his QB's mindset when things go south, and has done nothing to convince that a QB can improve under his watch (at least as an OC).

[Curly Bill]

Okay, okay...it has a *little* to do with Stoops. Although, I'm pretty good at Madden on the Xbox, so there's a chance I could get an offer when Stoops decides to hang 'em up.

I'd be on your side. You might suck at the job, but that would beat the complete inevitably of a 2-3 loss Stoops season.

What year did the Miami Dolphins go undefeated? If Stoops had coached that team ya know what?

.... they'd have lost 2-3 games.

Certain things are inevitable - the passage of time, the stupidity of liberals, and Stoops losing 2-3 games.

[aurorasooner]

I guess what surprises me the most is not that our D let them have a track meet against us in the 1st half or that our offense got bent over in crunch time and looked like the keystone cops, but from the sites I've visited tonight, most Sooner fans are resigned to the fact that we're going to cough up 1 or 2 games a year that we should win. A lot don't even get pizzed off with a loss anymore and seem to feel it's business as usual. I guess as long as the money keeps rolling in, at least for the short term, the administration feels it's ok. I've even seen the term thrown around, "We are now Texass-Lite", which really infuriates me.

I saw on one site that we haven't gone undefeated into the month of November since 2004. Surely, that's not right. That's 10 years. Has it really been that long since the year of the K-State fiasco in the Big 12 Championship game at Arrowhead? That fact can't be right.

[Curly Bill]

I guess what surprises me the most is not that our D let them have a track meet against us in the 1st half or that our offense got bent over in crunch time and looked like the keystone cops, but from the sites I've visited tonight, most Sooner fans are resigned to the fact that we're going to cough up 1 or 2 games a year that we should win. A lot don't even get pizzed off with a loss anymore and seem to feel it's business as usual. I guess as long as the money keeps rolling in, at least for the short term, the administration feels it's ok. I've even seen the term thrown around, "We are now Texass-Lite", which really infuriates me.

I saw on one site that we haven't gone undefeated into the month of November since 2004. Surely, that's not right. That's 10 years. Has it really been that long since the year of the K-State fiasco in the Big 12 Championship game at Arrowhead? That fact can't be right.

This has happened the last umpteen years, why wouldn't we expect it? I know I do.

...and yeah, no since getting pi**ed off about it. Ain't gonna change nothin.

[TrophyCollector]

However, you didn't answer the question, do you really expect to go 12-0 every year? Of course you don't.

I understand the frustration. I get that losing sucks, especially at Oklahoma. What I don't get is the mentality that Stoops is never going to lead us to another title, or he's just not good enough. That attitude is lost on me.

I respect that some take loses more personal than I do, but I ask that you respect my perspective on the loss too.

I respect your point-of-view. Like I said, losing isn't the issue for me. It is repeating the same pattern of losing games you aren't supposed to lose while making the same mistakes over and over again. That is, and should be unacceptable when we are paying the kind of money we are paying. High school coaches lose their jobs for less.

I also think Stoops has done an amazing job at OU. I'm not even close to wanting him to leave. I'd just like him to one again start expecting and demanding perfect execution from players AND coaches..

[BoulderSooner79]

I respect your point-of-view. Like I said, losing isn't the issue for me. It is repeating the same pattern of losing games you aren't supposed to lose…


But the math doesn't support this. Let's say an elite team has a 90% chance of winning every game on it's schedule. So point to any game and it is not supposed to lose it, right? If you string 12 of those games in a row, there is only a 28% chance of winning them all, so the math says the team *IS* supposed to lose at least one of them. So when that inevitable loss happens, there will be mistakes, questionable time management, bad play calling, yada yada yada. And we'll look at it under a microscope on why the team lost that single game it shouldn't lose. But looking from the 50,000ft level, the math just did it's thing.

Going to the P5 conferences and the 4 team playoff (and mostly likely 8 pretty soon) this is going to happen more often. The elite players that go to non-P5 schools will now squeeze into the P5 school and introduce more parity. It will become more and more like the NFL where 12-4 is a dominate record, and a team like the Patriots can look like the worst team in the league one week and then beat the tar out of an undefeated team the next. Having a truly dominate team that has a high probability of running the table will become more and more rare.

[TrophyCollector]

But the math doesn't support this. Let's say an elite team has a 90% chance of winning every game on it's schedule. So point to any game and it is not supposed to lose it, right? If you string 12 of those games in a row, there is only a 28% chance of winning them all, so the math says the team *IS* supposed to lose at least one of them.

.

You are correct, that math does not add up. If a team has a 90% chance to win each of 12 games, then they have 12 90% chances - nothing more. It's like if you flip a coin 12 times - it is just as likely to land on heads all 12 or tails all 12 as it is to split 6 & 6. It does not mean they have a 28% chance of going undefeated as that would suppose that each game mathematically influences the other games - which is wrong.

[TAFBSooner]

Right on the money. Like Texas gave Mack and DeLoss too much leeway, we do the same. It's easy to get lulled into what Texas got lulled into: "We won 10 and only lost the others by a few plays here and there. So, everything is okay." It's lazy. We're 13 seasons past a national title; just one shy of the 1986-1999 drought.

As far as the Ross/Perine and QB discussion, when we line up from play number one, Perine should be in the backfield. Ross shouldn't even be part of the equation anymore unless Perine is injured. Ditto Ford when he' s healthy again.

We are stuck with Knight because he accidentally had a great game against Alabama. He throws behind receivers because his arm isn't strong enough to get the ball where it needs to be when the receiver breaks open.

I'm more and more believing Saban when he says his team viewed the Sugar Bowl as a consolation.

So who's your HC candidate?

[Boomer.....]

I haven't been that stressed out watching a game in a long time. By halftime it seemed like it should have been the 4th quarter.

[BoulderSooner79]

You are correct, that math does not add up. If a team has a 90% chance to win each of 12 games, then they have 12 90% chances - nothing more. It's like if you flip a coin 12 times - it is just as likely to land on heads all 12 or tails all 12 as it is to split 6 & 6. It does not mean they have a 28% chance of going undefeated as that would suppose that each game mathematically influences the other games - which is wrong.

The 28% chance in that simple example is before the season starts. Of course the odds change as the games are played. Once a team is 4-0, then the odds are based on going 8-0 from there. This simple example is exactly assuming that each game is independent and do not influence each other - the opposite of what you said. You are dead wrong about the coin flip. The odds of next 12 flips coming up all heads is .024%. That would be the odds of a CFB team running the table in a 12 games season in a perfect parity situation where every game is a "pick 'em" by the odds makers. Now if you have already flipped the coin 11 times and happen to be the 1 in 2000 lucky person to flip all heads, then the odds are 50/50 to make 12.

But football is certainly not like flipping a coin or rolling a 10 faced dice (that would allow the 90% example). Each game has it's own odds of winning and they are dependent on each other. We had a close to 100% chance of beating Tulsa and Louisiana Tech, but just playing those games could result in injuries that impact future games. And the video from those games gave coaches of future opponents something to study and plan against. So the math is much more complicated, but the bottom line is that winning 12 games in a row is extremely unlikely even if a team is far superior to every team on the schedule. And on most schedules, there is a team or 2 where the difference is not that big.

[Boomer.....]

My take from the game was this:

The defensive line struggled. Early on they couldn't stop the option and QB rushes, so to prevent that they drop back and try to contain the QB. Boykin had all day to throw and eventually there will be a breakdown in coverage. I couldn't believe I saw D-linemen standing up at the line and not engaging to trying to get to the QB.

The offensive line struggled. TCU defenders were constantly in the backfield and getting pressure on Knight. There were some good runs, but for the most part the holes in the line were not there. It's tough when the two strengths of the team fail you.

Knight played poor. He did hit some deep balls, but his accuracy was lacking again. He was locking in on his target the entire play and wouldn't check his other options. There were many times a receiver or Bell was wide open, but he tried to force it into tight coverage. I'm starting to have Landry flashbacks, yet Landry may have had the better arm. The emergence of the QB draw was a HUGE plus.

Our receiving core is not good, obviously besides Shepard and maybe Neal. I don't know what the deal is, but our young crop of WRs can't see the field or help make a difference.

I don't know why the offensive play calls gets to Knight so late in the play clock. There were many times the team would be standing around and he wouldn't get the call until 10 seconds or less. Does Heupel check how the defense is lined up before sending in the call?

I heard that this past week of practice went horrible, unlike the previous two. The team wasn't motivated and was flat. They were obviously confused, as we had to keep burning timeouts because we didn't have the right personnel on the field (once even after a timeout). I don't know how this can happen going on the road against a Top 25 team.

I'm going to stay optimistic going forward and can bet that we can still make the playoff if we win out. Hopefully this loss will wake the team up and they will respond like last year after Baylor.

[Sabanball]

Sometimes you just get beat. It happens. Happened to both of our teams on Saturday. I have a feeling that the Sooners will bounce back nicely but my Tide has some real issues. This is the most undisciplined Saban-caoched team I've ever seen, and injuries are starting to mount. No way we win out.

[BoulderSooner79]

Sometimes you just get beat. It happens. Happened to both of our teams on Saturday. I have a feeling that the Sooners will bounce back nicely but my Tide has some real issues. This is the most undisciplined Saban-caoched team I've ever seen, and injuries are starting to mount. No way we win out.

Just beat Auburn, and you'll feel better after the season is over.

[Tear Down This Wall]

So who's your HC candidate?

Anyone who will fire the offensive coordinators.

[Tear Down This Wall]

Sometimes you just get beat. It happens. Happened to both of our teams on Saturday. I have a feeling that the Sooners will bounce back nicely but my Tide has some real issues. This is the most undisciplined Saban-caoched team I've ever seen, and injuries are starting to mount. No way we win out.

Let me tell you what Bama's problem is, because it's the same as ours: it's not good enough in the offensive coordinator's mind to win with the run game. Kiffin has Alabama running those stupid behind the line of scrimmage passes that we have been stuck with for a long time.

You've got Yeldon and Henry, yet Kiffin wants to try to be cute with the offense.

Like us, you'll win many games simply because you have more talent at all other positions than most of your opponents. But, the downside is you'll fart away two or three games a year.

Here's where your Saban and the AD are tested. Will they be different than Bob Stoops in this regard? Than Joe Castiglione? That is, will Saban continue to watch the same crap year after year and not fire the offensive coordinator (in our case, coordinators). And, will your AD continue to give him more money and contract extensions for the same thing year after year?

We're now 10 years down the road of losing to teams worse than us two or three times a year. But, the school is making money, so it doesn't matter. Will Bama fans be as placid?

Somehow, I doubt it because they've tasted more championships than we have here. And, my guess is, losses eat at Saban more than they do at Stoops.

[Tear Down This Wall]

Plus, our best QB is now a tight end. So, I'm not sure things are that out of whack in talent evaluation yet at Bama...but, if Saban gives Kiffin the same ridiculous leeway that Stoops gives his offensive coaches...be prepared for the same in the future.

[BoulderSooner79]

Plus, our best QB is now a tight end.

Not so sure about that. Saturday, TK looked a whole lot like Bell did last year in Dallas.

[Tear Down This Wall]

Not so sure about that. Saturday, TK looked a whole lot like Bell did last year in Dallas.

Believe me, I understand the big picture: Bell crucified for one bad game, Knight sainted for one good game = fans stuck with Knight's erratic play, hoping against all logical evidence that he will someday magically have a quick enough release by the time he graduates to quit throwing behind receivers.

[BoulderSooner79]

Believe me, I understand the big picture: Bell crucified for one bad game, Knight sainted for one good game = fans stuck with Knight's erratic play, hoping against all logical evidence that he will someday magically have a quick enough release by the time he graduates to quit throwing behind receivers.

I actually think he can if he is fed a bunch of short, easy throws to get into a rhythm. But he certainly won't dropping back for all medium to long routes. His confidence is shot right now and I don't see how he gets it back with the current strategy. Maybe it's because Ford is out, so he doesn't throw outlets to the RB even though I thought Perine had hands too. Another approach is to bench him for the backup, but that is a last resort for Stoops even though it has worked for other coaches. Since Bell is 100% practicing at TE, I don't see that as a quick fix, but might be worth a try.

[SoonerorLater]

I think TK can improve but will never be a good (consistent, accurate) drop back passer. He is a prototype read option QB which the coaching staff doesn't want running the ball. I'm not sure where the coaching staff is going to go with this.

[BoulderSooner79]

I think TK can improve but will never be a good (consistent, accurate) drop back passer. He is a prototype read option QB which the coaching staff doesn't want running the ball. I'm not sure where the coaching staff is going to go with this.

It takes more than just the QB to run a read/option offense. I don't think our OCs have the knowledge to do this. I'd just like to see TK play like Blake Sims is playing at Bama. Use his legs to make him very difficult to sack or even pressure. Normally, when a QB escapes containment and starts looking down field, you hold your breath that a big play is coming. With TK this year, he rarely finds someone and ends up either just running or throwing the ball away.

[BlownGP]

I actually think he can if he is fed a bunch of short, easy throws to get into a rhythm. But he certainly won't dropping back for all medium to long routes. His confidence is shot right now and I don't see how he gets it back with the current strategy. Maybe it's because Ford is out, so he doesn't throw outlets to the RB even though I thought Perine had hands too. Another approach is to bench him for the backup, but that is a last resort for Stoops even though it has worked for other coaches. Since Bell is 100% practicing at TE, I don't see that as a quick fix, but might be worth a try.


Yeah, I'm sure why Perine or even Ross didn't get very many passes out of back field. I think missing ford really hurt us this game. I'm by no means saying Ford would have won us the game, but other than Shepherd, that's TK security blanket and one damn good one.


Hate to say it, but I think TCU has damn good team. We will see even more this weekend how good they really are.

[Tear Down This Wall]

This weekend, we will see whether UT's clamping down of Baylor was a fluke or not. Their offense is horrible. But...

...their offense was being executed by Derp last season when they whipped us. Swoopes surely can't be as bad as Derp (here, I admit to not watching a single down of Texas football yet this season). On paper, their offense seems horrible; and, I know most of that is because Charlie Strong is not letting them smoke dope and cut classes anymore...which wiped out a good chuck of his roster (hard to get up for those African American studies and Recreational Science classes when you chillun' at the crib after a good blunt).

I'm not worried about their offense. I'm worried about their defense stuffing us based on our offensive coaches putting their collective heads in their arses last Saturday...and, then Stoops seeming to be fine with it.

[Eielson]

Not so sure about that. Saturday, TK looked a whole lot like Bell did last year in Dallas.

Easy there. We could actually score every once in a while with TK in there.

[BoulderSooner79]

I've watched some of the UT games and they are pretty stout against the run. The D-line and LBs are good sized and they are pretty well equipped to handle Perine and the inside power game. Not saying it won't be effective for us, just that it won't get us points - it has to be mixed in with other aspects of the offense. Baylor beat them on longer passing plays via good throws from Petty combined with their WRs winning on contested throws (ugh). And that didn't happen until the 2nd half when the horns finally started to tire. BU scored zero on offense in the 1st half.

It's going to be interesting and I could see 13-10 sort of defensive struggle. But if we come up with a balanced, effective game plan on offense we could win handily. I don't seen the horns taking it to us on the ground like they did last year, so I don't see any way they win handily unless we become a turnover machine.

[BoulderSooner79]

Easy there. We could actually score every once in a while with TK in there.

I should qualify that to say "the 2nd half on Saturday", after TCU took away the long ball.

[BlownGP]

It's going to be interesting and I could see 13-10 sort of defensive struggle. But if we come up with a balanced, effective game plan on offense we could win handily. I don't seen the horns taking it to us on the ground like they did last year, so I don't see any way they win handily unless we become a turnover machine.

It's probably going to come down to turn overs like it always doesn't.

[aurorasooner]

I really don't know why we don't use a 2nd back instead of a 3rd wide receiver, especially if K. Ford does play. We're not getting any production out of our 3rd wide receiver anyway, and for that matter not much out of the 2nd either. Just motion the back out of the backfield or shift him into the slot if we need 3.

On short yardage, just put Bell in as the 2nd back, motion TK out as the receiver, and run the Belldozer up the middle. The combos are endless. It's just something different to confuse the opposing D and it can't be any worse than running a telegraphed play where everyone in the stadium knows where it's going.

If we're truly set on running the FB, then use the old strong I formation some of the time with SS as the only wideout (Tinker Owens style), and then actually run the option, and when I say run the option, actually pitch the FB, or at least have it as a part of the play. Have we even pitched the FB off the read option yet, even pitched it quickly where the QB is in no danger of being hammered?
Our read/option is not much to write home about as far as a brilliant X and Os play-call/play design, imo

[SoonerMarkVA]

Believe me, I understand the big picture: Bell crucified for one bad game, Knight sainted for one good game = fans stuck with Knight's erratic play, hoping against all logical evidence that he will someday magically have a quick enough release by the time he graduates to quit throwing behind receivers.

Bell had at least 2 bad games--very bad games. ut and Baylor. TCU was pretty bad too. And ISU was lining up to be the next, when Knight blew it open in the 2nd half.

I think both guys are about in the same boat, though with different strengths. When they're on, they can both be really good and seem like world beaters. But they're both very inconsistent and the down side is really low.

[TAFBSooner]

Anyone who will fire the offensive coordinators.

Now I'm curious. Who do you see as a good OC hire?

[Eielson]

Now I'm curious. Who do you see as a good OC hire?

SUMLIN! LEACH! KIFFIN!

Mangino!

[SoonerMarkVA]

Remember when Norm Chow used to be da bomb? Ah, the good ol' days.

[BoulderSooner79]

Remember when Norm Chow used to be da bomb? Ah, the good ol' days.

Always goes in cycles. Just like the wishbone stopped being effective as defenses adjusted, the Auburn and Oregon offense will go the way of the dinosaur along with the OC's that run them.

[TAFBSooner]

SUMLIN! LEACH! KIFFIN!

Mangino!

Heh. It worked with MStoops, so why not?