jharkins
10/1/2014, 04:52 PM
Found this through a Deadspin article on the exciting wild card game last night. It graphs real-time betting data during the game which gives a good overall picture of how exciting the game was. I found this absolutely fascinating. They have NFL, MLB, NBA and NCAAF games you can browse through.
Unfortunately, it looks like it was spawned out of the Boise State game. Per the website:
It’s 12:52am on January 2nd, 2007. Boise State has just shocked Oklahoma to win the Fiesta Bowl. Meanwhile, I’m staring at the game’s TradeSports page, watching the gambling odds fluctuate almost as wildly as the game itself. The last few minutes of the TradeSports graph looked like an EKG gone haywire: one minute Boise State had a 90% chance to win, then only moments later it was Oklahoma who had a 95% chance to win, until somehow Boise State miraculously pulled out the victory.
It occurred to me then that variance in gambling market odds is a good way to quantify how exciting a game is. Modern betting exchanges allow gamblers to bet throughout the course of a game. The odds, which can also be expressed as win probabilities, continually readjust as the game progresses. My claim is that the more the odds fluctuate during a game, the more exciting that game is.
http://www.gambletron2000.com/
Here are some of OU's highlights....
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_at_west_virginia.png https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_vs_alabama.png
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_at_oklahoma_state.png
Unfortunately, it looks like it was spawned out of the Boise State game. Per the website:
It’s 12:52am on January 2nd, 2007. Boise State has just shocked Oklahoma to win the Fiesta Bowl. Meanwhile, I’m staring at the game’s TradeSports page, watching the gambling odds fluctuate almost as wildly as the game itself. The last few minutes of the TradeSports graph looked like an EKG gone haywire: one minute Boise State had a 90% chance to win, then only moments later it was Oklahoma who had a 95% chance to win, until somehow Boise State miraculously pulled out the victory.
It occurred to me then that variance in gambling market odds is a good way to quantify how exciting a game is. Modern betting exchanges allow gamblers to bet throughout the course of a game. The odds, which can also be expressed as win probabilities, continually readjust as the game progresses. My claim is that the more the odds fluctuate during a game, the more exciting that game is.
http://www.gambletron2000.com/
Here are some of OU's highlights....
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_at_west_virginia.png https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_vs_alabama.png
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10452225/gambletron_oklahoma_at_oklahoma_state.png