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KantoSooner
12/30/2013, 11:54 AM
From time to time, we've batted around the issue of whether China is a threat to the US. This article appeared in today's issue of Food Manufacturing, an industry journal that I read because I work in the food biz. There are a couple of points I'd highlight:

1. This is not a lonely data point. As the article suggests in passing, environmental problems abound. Beijing itself is threatened with desertification, potable water and industrial water are in critical short supply, extensive erosion issues exist throughout the country and air pollution has become an issue that few in the world fail to associate with China.

2. This is from a government source. Knowing the record for shading the truth that has been earned by the government, it is safe to assume that the problem is worse than what is reported.

3. Although the problem is significant for China, both because they import an increasing portion of their food needs and because they desperately need to keep as many people as possible on the land and prevent them from joining an estimated 300 milliion strong more or less migrant population who illegally roam the country looking for work...and who would be...unhappy...if life gets significantly harder, it is not something that is divorced from your weekly grocery shopping. China dominates the world market for dried garlic and onions, for example. I mean, dominates. If those little ground water sponges stop being sourced there, we'll be back to Egyptian (or maybe not), Turkish (or maybe not) or domestic (at, literally twice the price). It's not going to mean your Progresso soup will double in price, but it will contribute to inflation in food cost, one area where the US has enjoyed pretty decent cost controls over the past half decade.

Anyway, to the article, for what it's worth:

Chinese Official: Some Farmland Too Polluted to Grow Food
Mon, 12/30/2013 - 10:04am
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BEIJING (AP) — More than 8 million acres of China's farmland is too polluted with heavy metals and other chemicals to use for growing food, a Cabinet official said Monday, highlighting a problem that is causing growing public concern.

The threat from pollution to China's food supply has been overshadowed by public alarm at smog and water contamination but is gaining attention following scandals over tainted rice and other crops. The government triggered complaints in February when it refused to release results of a nationwide survey of soil pollution, declaring them a state secret.

The figure given at a news conference by Wang Shiyuan, a deputy minister of the Ministry of Land and Resources, would be about 2 percent of China's 337 million acres of arable land.

Some scientists have given higher estimates of as much as 60 million acres, or one-fifth of the total, though it is unclear how much of that would be too badly contaminated for farming.

The issue poses a dilemma for communist leaders who want to maximize food production but face public pressure to ensure safety after an avalanche of scandals over shoddy infant formula and other goods.

The explosive growth of Chinese industry, overuse of farm chemicals and lax environmental enforcement have left swathes of the countryside tainted by lead, cadmium, pesticides and other toxins.

Investigations by the Ministry of Environmental Protection have found "moderate to severe pollution" on 3.3 million hectares (8.3 million acres), Wang said at a news conference.

"These areas cannot continue farming," Wang said. He did not say whether the information came from the national pollution survey.

Farmers already are prohibited from raising crops for human consumption in areas across China that are deemed too badly polluted. But tainted rice and other crops have made their way into the food supply.

The ruling Communist Party's latest five-year development plan, which runs through 2015, promises to reduce heavy metal pollution and clean up contaminated areas.

Wang said the government is working on a long-range plan and expects to spend several tens of billions of yuan (several billion dollars) a year on the effort. He gave no details but scientists say one possible approach is to plant trees or other vegetation that will absorb heavy metals from the soil but will not be consumed by humans.

Complaints by farmers about lead and other pollutants in their water supplies have led to protests against battery factories.

A key concern among scientists is cadmium, a carcinogenic metal that can cause kidney damage and other health problems and is absorbed by rice, the country's staple grain.

In May, authorities launched an investigation of rice mills in southern China after tests found almost half of supplies sold in Guangzhou, a major city, were contaminated with cadmium.

In February, the newspaper Nanfang Daily reported tens of thousands of tons of cadmium-tainted rice was sold to noodle makers in southern China from 2009 to this year. It said government inspectors declared it fit only for production of non-food goods such as industrial alcohol but a trader sold most of the rice to food processors anyway.
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Country of Origin Labelling ("COOL") is looking like not so bad a thing, these days.

FaninAma
12/30/2013, 07:06 PM
The problem China faces is that they didn't enter a economic modernization era until they had a billion people living there. As a result, all of the downside of a growing manufacturing sector (i.e. Pollution, use of vital resources) was ramped up by a scale many times that of western countries during their industrial revolution.I think the increasing consumption rate of Chinese society is unsustainable and will lead to military and political instability in the region.

Think Imperial Japan but with a need to obtain new natural resources many times higher than pre-WW II Japan. I would not want to be a western European or Asian country competing for resources with China in the next 2 decades. And this is a reason Obama's tenure needs to be over ASAP......he is an impediment to this country's energy independence.

KantoSooner
12/31/2013, 01:31 PM
As annoying as his energy policy is, the O&G is going nowhere. Worst case on that, we have an 'energy crisis' a la the 1970's.

The problem posed by China is the one posed by a world of haves and have nots. How do we orchestrate (to the degree we can) the ascendence of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc to acceptable degrees of affluence without wars and destruction? I find the people in the more repressed parts of the world to be no lesser than me and thus likely to want and in some sense to deserve no less than me. If they're willing to work for it, why shouldn't they? And wouldn't denying them this undermine the capitalist system?
So, how do the great unwashed start eating more meat, to put it baldly, without ruining the planet? (through environmental overload or war).
Big question, I don't have a perfect, canned, answer. We can't run away from it, though.

My point in this thread was not that China would or would not lash out at some time, but rather that they were not some well oiled juggernaut. I'm sticking with my prediction that, if their growth falls much below 7% per year, they are a year to year 50% risk of falling apart domestically. And that's a sobering prospect.

FaninAma
12/31/2013, 06:52 PM
As annoying as his energy policy is, the O&G is going nowhere. Worst case on that, we have an 'energy crisis' a la the 1970's.

The problem posed by China is the one posed by a world of haves and have nots. How do we orchestrate (to the degree we can) the ascendence of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc to acceptable degrees of affluence without wars and destruction? I find the people in the more repressed parts of the world to be no lesser than me and thus likely to want and in some sense to deserve no less than me. If they're willing to work for it, why shouldn't they? And wouldn't denying them this undermine the capitalist system?
So, how do the great unwashed start eating more meat, to put it baldly, without ruining the planet? (through environmental overload or war).
Big question, I don't have a perfect, canned, answer. We can't run away from it, though.

My point in this thread was not that China would or would not lash out at some time, but rather that they were not some well oiled juggernaut. I'm sticking with my prediction that, if their growth falls much below 7% per year, they are a year to year 50% risk of falling apart domestically. And that's a sobering prospect.

I agree. And it came out recently that local governments in China have racked up a deficit of over $3 trillion dollars. They do not have the GDP growth in pure dollar terms to service a debt of that magnitude.
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Jacie
1/1/2014, 01:42 PM
If this Moon thing works out for them, they can start mining the lunar surface for water and minerals . . .

ouwasp
1/1/2014, 06:13 PM
Here is another angle to The Chinese Menace

Some yrs ago I read an article speculating about a sociological time bomb ticking Red China. For a long time the Chinese family has been limited to one child (I think this practice may have been rescinded recently?). Since the Chinese culture places so much value on having a son, birth control practices have led to a very large disparity in available females to the number of males out there...

Maybe this problem was overstated. But it sure did present an interesting quandary. Exactly how would a society deal with this? Say there's a hundred young men seeking a mate. But there are only 60 girls available. Multiply this situation by 10 million (or more). Explosive?

badger
1/3/2014, 09:52 AM
If the Chinese win too many championships in a row, all we have to do is meet them in the Sugar Bowl to bring em down a notch.

KantoSooner
1/3/2014, 12:49 PM
Here is another angle to The Chinese Menace

Some yrs ago I read an article speculating about a sociological time bomb ticking Red China. For a long time the Chinese family has been limited to one child (I think this practice may have been rescinded recently?). Since the Chinese culture places so much value on having a son, birth control practices have led to a very large disparity in available females to the number of males out there...

Maybe this problem was overstated. But it sure did present an interesting quandary. Exactly how would a society deal with this? Say there's a hundred young men seeking a mate. But there are only 60 girls available. Multiply this situation by 10 million (or more). Explosive?

1. There's an increasing 'gay culture' in China. Partially this is due to the government loosening social restrictions in general. (And Chinese night clubs are FUN, Jack. Terrible music for the most part (Cantonese hip hop, anyone?) but you've never lived until you've experienced the mid-night 'drop it' where the young ladies pretty much get nekkid and keep on dancing.) So there're some borderline guys who go that direction.

2. There's a Chinese son-in-law in your future. Increasing number of foreign wives. Not yet demographically significant, but lots of Thai, Vietnamese, etc women are finding Chinese husbands.

The real issue is with the socially/economically lower class men. No wives and no hope of importing. One more reason the government is very driven to keep the economy rolling. No sex AND no money makes Jianni a VERY unhappy boy...with very little to lose.

ouwasp
1/5/2014, 01:20 PM
Thanks for your insight Kanto. Very interesting.

Jacie
1/5/2014, 01:58 PM
I wondered a long time ago if the one-child policy was their way of building up the male population to make enough soldiers to fill an army numbering in the tens of millions. The only question I had was where they planned to send em, into Russia, southeast Asia, India, Europe?

ouwasp
1/5/2014, 07:25 PM
I wondered a long time ago if the one-child policy was their way of building up the male population to make enough soldiers to fill an army numbering in the tens of millions. The only question I had was where they planned to send em, into Russia, southeast Asia, India, Europe?

Coming soon to a singles mixer near you...The Red Chinese Army

KantoSooner
1/6/2014, 10:23 AM
Jacie, While I wouldn't put it past the Chinese gov (they love doing things 'big'), I don't think the one child policy was directed at anything other than the domestic effects of their population bomb. Should they have foreseen sex biased abortion and it's effects? Maybe, but the majority of the country only had access to crude clinic level med care when the policy was instituted. Only later were ultrasounds made common. Secondly, and less factually based, it's very important to separate what the government there CAN do vs what they DO do. Theoretically, the central government there is very much free to take pretty much whatever action it pleases. It's not a good place to be a dissident there for this reason. On the other hand, the place is really big and getting things done is very hard to do in a comprehensive way. So most things there tend to get done in a half assed way. You've probably seen the photo of the bridge that meets in the middle and is off set by one lane in either direction? The Chinese government could have done something like this to support their military...but it would be a lonely example of that government actually planning and successfully executing a program of that complexity.

None of that is to say they might not take advantage of the situation...just that they didn't plan it in advance.