Bowl Projections

[8timechamps]

The latest ESPN bowl projections:

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State
N. Illinois

Sugar Bowl
Alabama
Baylor

Orange Bowl
Ohio State
Central Florida

Rose Bowl
Arizona State
Michigan State

BCS Title Game
Auburn
Florida State


Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma
Oregon


Not sure if they are predicting Michigan State to beat Ohio State in the Big XII championship game (thus giving Auburn a shot in the title game), or if they just assume Auburn would jump Ohio State if they win the SEC CCG. Also, should OU beat OSU this week, do the Sooners take Baylor's spot in the Sugar Bowl?

If it did end like this (and there's still a ton of things that could change this), I wouldn't mind getting another shot at Oregon. I'd rather face the Ducks than UCLA.

[SicEmBaylor]

You would only jump us if you beat OSU and we lost to UT, right? Otherwise, it'd be a 2-loss jumping a 1-loss top-10.

[SicEmBaylor]

I really do not want to play Bama. If it were in the MNC game then fine, but we'll get destroyed.

[8timechamps]

You would only jump us if you beat OSU and we lost to UT, right? Otherwise, it'd be a 2-loss jumping a 1-loss top-10.

Good point. I guess I'm not sure how it would play out after OU beats the hell out of OSU. Assuming Baylor beats Texas, would Baylor go to the Fiesta, and then OU gets the at-large? I'm not sure OU would move up enough to get the at-large bid.

[Phil]

The only scenario where we could get an at-large BCS bid would be for us to beat OSU and Baylor to beat Texas. Northern Illinois losing would help, as well.

If we beat OSU and Baylor beats Texas, Baylor gets the Fiesta as outright conference champs. In that scenario, we are very likely to move up into the top 14 of the final BCS, which is required to get an at-large BCS bid. After that, it would be a matter of a bowl selecting us. I don't know how likely or unlikely that is, but if a bowl is looking to take Baylor if OSU wins, we might slide into that slot, given that the only way Texas is eligible for the BCS is to win the conference outright. If Texas beats Baylor and we beat OSU, the likelihood is that the Big 12 wouldn't get a second BCS bid, frankly.

[Scott D]

Regardless of how it shakes out, I'm content to not go to the fiesta bowl and deal with a team that doesn't deserve a bcs bid.

[UteSooner]

Regardless of how it shakes out, I'm content to not go to the fiesta bowl and deal with a team that doesn't deserve a bcs bid.

I don't care where we end up as long as we don't go out there and lay an egg (not that I have reason to fear that).

[8timechamps]

The only scenario where we could get an at-large BCS bid would be for us to beat OSU and Baylor to beat Texas. Northern Illinois losing would help, as well.

If we beat OSU and Baylor beats Texas, Baylor gets the Fiesta as outright conference champs. In that scenario, we are very likely to move up into the top 14 of the final BCS, which is required to get an at-large BCS bid. After that, it would be a matter of a bowl selecting us. I don't know how likely or unlikely that is, but if a bowl is looking to take Baylor if OSU wins, we might slide into that slot, given that the only way Texas is eligible for the BCS is to win the conference outright. If Texas beats Baylor and we beat OSU, the likelihood is that the Big 12 wouldn't get a second BCS bid, frankly.

That's how I figured it, just wasn't sure of OU's chances. ESPN (the Big XII blog) is hyping Texas' chance at a bid. That confused me a little, then I realized that should OU win this weekend, Texas/Baylor will be playing for an outright championship. Not sure if OU would move up enough to overtake OSU even with a win in Stillwater (unless is was just a really ugly lopsided game), and I doubt the BCS would give a two loss OSU team the at-large bid over some of the other two loss teams that would travel. We know the SEC is going to have two teams in, and I would guess that Stanford would be next in line for the at-large, should a spot open.

[8timechamps]

Regardless of how it shakes out, I'm content to not go to the fiesta bowl and deal with a team that doesn't deserve a bcs bid.

Agreed. I'm also not jealous of any team that plays Alabama. For once, I'd be happy with a Alamo/Buffalo Wild Wings bowl.

[BoulderSooner79]

ESPN must be predicting MSU to beat tOSU. If tOSU wins and still gets jumped by Auburn in the BCS, then tOSU goes to the Rose Bowl.

EDIT: I see they are also predicting ASU to beat Stanford. Most are predicting OU in the Alamo regardless of Saturday's outcome.

[Mjcpr]

I don't care where we end up as long as we don't go out there and lay an egg (not that I have reason to fear that).

You don't? Did you miss the USC, Boise and West Virginia games?

I don't want any part of Oregon or Alabama. I'll take some other option as long as it doesn't require losing to aggy.

[BoulderSooner79]

I don't care where we end up as long as we don't go out there and lay an egg (not that I have reason to fear that).

Sad but true, Stoops and staff don't seem to be the master of the 4+ week game plan period.

[8timechamps]

You don't? Did you miss the USC, Boise and West Virginia games?

I don't want any part of Oregon or Alabama. I'll take some other option as long as it doesn't require losing to aggy.

I agree about playing Bama, but Oregon isn't who we thought they were. They have just looked 'blah' over the past few games. I really don't think they would be a tough draw. I'd much rather play them than UCLA, who is on a roll and playing as well as anyone lately. They remind me a lot of Baylor last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win the PAC next year.

[UteSooner]

You don't? Did you miss the USC, Boise and West Virginia games?

I remember. Hence the sarcasm.

[BoulderSooner79]

I agree about playing Bama, but Oregon isn't who we thought they were. They have just looked 'blah' over the past few games. I really don't think they would be a tough draw. I'd much rather play them than UCLA, who is on a roll and playing as well as anyone lately. They remind me a lot of Baylor last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win the PAC next year.

The unknown with Oregon is the health status of Mariotta. He has played with a knee sprain since the Stanford game and hasn't been the same as early season. It could be his knee is okay now, but it's gotten into his head. Hard to predict the effects of a month of healing. I hesitate to say they wouldn't be a tough draw, they still have a lot of top players.

[SanDiegoSoonerGal]

Screw Oregon and the horse they rode in on.

I attended the 2005 Holiday Bowl here in my adopted hometown. Having listened to the so-called experts, I fully expected my 7-5 Sooners to go down in ignominious defeat at the hands of the 10-1 Ducks, whose fans were highly upset their team wasn't playing in a BCS bowl and were out for blood.

Need I recount the result?

They were posers then and their win over Oregon State by just one point proves that they are still posers now.

Bring 'em on. They ain't all that.

[Salt City Sooner]

ESPN must be on their knees praying for MSU to beat tOSU. If tOSU wins and still gets jumped by Auburn in the BCS, then tOSU goes to the Rose Bowl.

EDIT: I see they are also predicting ASU to beat Stanford. Most are predicting OU in the Alamo regardless of Saturday's outcome.
Patched that up just a bit.

[BoulderSooner79]

Screw Oregon and the horse they rode in on.

I attended the 2005 Holiday Bowl here in my adopted hometown. Having listened to the so-called experts, I fully expected my 7-5 Sooners to go down in ignominious defeat at the hands of the 10-1 Ducks, whose fans were highly upset their team wasn't playing in a BCS bowl and were out for blood.

Need I recount the result?

They were posers then and their win over Oregon State by just one point proves that they are still posers now.

Bring 'em on. They ain't all that.

Not sure the '05 Ducks have a heck of a lot to do with this years version. But, okay.

[8timechamps]

The unknown with Oregon is the health status of Mariotta. He has played with a knee sprain since the Stanford game and hasn't been the same as early season. It could be his knee is okay now, but it's gotten into his head. Hard to predict the effects of a month of healing. I hesitate to say they wouldn't be a tough draw, they still have a lot of top players.

No question Mariotta has not been the same player since the injury. But, I think there's a difference with this year's team from last year's. I think Chip Kelly meant a lot more to their success that they would like to admit. Don't get me wrong, they are a good team, but in terms of "tough draws", I don't put them in the same class as Bama, UCLA, etc.

[CowboyMRW]

No question Mariotta has not been the same player since the injury. But, I think there's a difference with this year's team from last year's. I think Chip Kelly meant a lot more to their success that they would like to admit. Don't get me wrong, they are a good team, but in terms of "tough draws", I don't put them in the same class as Bama, UCLA, etc.

Didn't Oregon smash UCLA? Playing Oregon right now is a lot different than playing them in 5-6 weeks. They seem to be pretty banged up right now, but let those injuries heal, and that speed will be back all over the field.

[stoops the eternal pimp]

Speaking of, just announced he will return next season.

[rock on sooner]

If it is UO, then we should insist that no PAC 12 ref's be in the stadium!

[8timechamps]

Didn't Oregon smash UCLA? Playing Oregon right now is a lot different than playing them in 5-6 weeks. They seem to be pretty banged up right now, but let those injuries heal, and that speed will be back all over the field.

Yeah, they did. But, that's kinda like saying WVA is better than OSU because they beat you guys. Since that game (UCLA/Oregon), the two teams have gone in completely opposite directions. UCLA is playing very good ball right now.

[BoulderSooner79]

No question Mariotta has not been the same player since the injury. But, I think there's a difference with this year's team from last year's. I think Chip Kelly meant a lot more to their success that they would like to admit. Don't get me wrong, they are a good team, but in terms of "tough draws", I don't put them in the same class as Bama, UCLA, etc.

I totally agree. I guess my definition of "tough draw" is relative to OUr team, not this year's elite. Depending on match-ups, about any top 20 team can be a tough draw for us.

[Breadburner]

MSU is going to rape OSU......

[Bourbon St Sooner]

You don't? Did you miss the USC, Boise and West Virginia games?

I don't want any part of Oregon or Alabama. I'll take some other option as long as it doesn't require losing to aggy.

Have you watched Oregon play lately? They're really not that good. We can run the ball on them and Mariotta has been throwing picks like their candy at Christmas.

The last time Bama played in a bowl that wasn't an NC game they got punked by Utah, but yeah, I wouldn't put our chances as too good against them. Of course, I'd love to see smoke coming out of Saban's ears trying to scheme against our offense when even Heupel doesn't know what our offense is going to be week to week.

[Mjcpr]

Have you watched Oregon play lately? They're really not that good. We can run the ball on them and Mariotta has been throwing picks like their candy at Christmas.

The last time Bama played in a bowl that wasn't an NC game they got punked by Utah, but yeah, I wouldn't put our chances as too good against them. Of course, I'd love to see smoke coming out of Saban's ears trying to scheme against our offense when even Heupel doesn't know what our offense is going to be week to week.

Yes but all I keep seeing is the numbers they were putting up earlier in the year and the beatdown Baylor put on us using a similar style. But yes, I understand they are not playing that way now. We do have a way of brining out the best in teams though for some reason.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Didn't Oregon smash UCLA? Playing Oregon right now is a lot different than playing them in 5-6 weeks. They seem to be pretty banged up right now, but let those injuries heal, and that speed will be back all over the field.

These are the same guys that said they weren't excited about going to the Rose Bowl again before getting stomped by Arizona? For the bowl game, I expect all of their early entrants to do like our guys did for the '08 Fiesta Bowl and come up with "injuries" so they can't play.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Yes but all I keep seeing is the numbers they were putting up earlier in the year and the beatdown Baylor put on us using a similar style. But yes, I understand they are not playing that way now. We do have a way of brining out the best in teams though for some reason.

Our defense played fine against Baylor until they got tired out because of our 3 and out offense. If our offense plays like that in the bowl game we'll get stomped by whoever we play.

[ouduckhunter]

As a former Oreygonian, I want to play the Quacks, and their refs only if we beat the feathers off their unis. $#%}}€¥^^^!!

[Jacie]

I count 79 FBS teams at 6-6 or better, however, some of those 6-6ers or even 7-5ers may not be bowl eligible.

What I am trying to figure is with 35 bowl games, how many bowl-eligible teams won't get an invite because there are more than 70 of them?

So far we have:

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Tulane (7-5) vs. UL Lafayette (8-3)

Fight Hunger Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Pac-12

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
MWC vs. Navy (7-4)

GoDaddy Bowl
Arkansas State (7-5) vs. MAC

[swardboy]

I'll be watching the GoDaddy Bowl for the commercials.

[Soonerwake]

That New Orleans bowl matchup may be the perfect example of what a small bowl could ask for. Local teams being just good enough to be perfect for that bowl, good crowds, even competition..

[Scott D]

I'd like to trade places with Texas in the cbssports.com projections and do the Tempe trip to play Michigan.

[yermom]

so it looks like they are assuming we lose

what happens if we win? if we win and Texas wins?

could we end up at-large? i think we could jump Clemson if we beat OSU, in theory. would Baylor get selected over us after losing to Texas?

i would think the Cotton would still be an option. i'd almost prefer the Alamo though

[Position Limit]

so it looks like they are assuming we lose

what happens if we win? if we win and Texas wins?

could we end up at-large? i think we could jump Clemson if we beat OSU, in theory. would Baylor get selected over us after losing to Texas?

i would think the Cotton would still be an option. i'd almost prefer the Alamo though

this is what i'm thinking. OU is gonna win saturday. book it. so is there anyway we get an at large to a bcs bow?

[TheUnnamedSooner]

I think a lot will have to do with how N. Illinois does. Could they knock us out of a BCS 2 years in a row?

[Salt City Sooner]

It pretty much has everything to do w/ Northern Illinois. If they don't lose, they're in.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

I'm guessing we go to the Alamo Bowl win or lose. That's a matchup made for tv and would be one of the best non-New Year's bowls. N. Ill losing would likely open up a spot for a second B12 team. Of course, then we have to win Sat to get in.

[8timechamps]

so it looks like they are assuming we lose

what happens if we win? if we win and Texas wins?

could we end up at-large? i think we could jump Clemson if we beat OSU, in theory. would Baylor get selected over us after losing to Texas?

i would think the Cotton would still be an option. i'd almost prefer the Alamo though

After looking into this further, there is almost no chance OU gets a BCS bid. We are just too far down in the polls right now.

Cotton is an option, but not likely since we played there last year (and bowls typically avoid back-to-back teams unless they are forced to do so, i.e. BCS games), and the Cotton will almost assuredly take Texas or Baylor (depending on the finish).

It's almost a lock that we'll be in the Alamo Bowl, with a chance that we could be in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

I really do not want to play Bama. If it were in the MNC game then fine, but we'll get destroyed.That Sugar Bowl vs Bama would be your reward for having such a good buncha thugs this year.:black_eyed:

[Phil]

The only ways the polls matter for an at-large BCS bid is if you are top 2 (title game), 3-4 but not an AQ champ (guaranteed bid), top 16 from non-AQ conference and ahead of an AQ champ (guaranteed bid), or top 14 (eligible for selection). If we beat OSU, no doubt we are top 14 and second highest ranked Big 12 team. Next year, the Sugar becomes the contract bowl for the Big 12 and SEC champs, if they aren't in the title game. Ever think they might throw the Big 12 a bone instead of taking a Clemson team coming off a loss?

I am not saying it will happen - it probably won't. But I think there's a lot better than no chance. We win, and we are in the mix.





After looking into this further, there is almost no chance OU gets a BCS bid. We are just too far down in the polls right now.

Cotton is an option, but not likely since we played there last year (and bowls typically avoid back-to-back teams unless they are forced to do so, i.e. BCS games), and the Cotton will almost assuredly take Texas or Baylor (depending on the finish).

It's almost a lock that we'll be in the Alamo Bowl, with a chance that we could be in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

[Jacie]

The only ways the polls matter for an at-large BCS bid is if you are . . .

. . . Notre Dame.

[8timechamps]

The only ways the polls matter for an at-large BCS bid is if you are top 2 (title game), 3-4 but not an AQ champ (guaranteed bid), top 16 from non-AQ conference and ahead of an AQ champ (guaranteed bid), or top 14 (eligible for selection). If we beat OSU, no doubt we are top 14 and second highest ranked Big 12 team. Next year, the Sugar becomes the contract bowl for the Big 12 and SEC champs, if they aren't in the title game. Ever think they might throw the Big 12 a bone instead of taking a Clemson team coming off a loss?

I am not saying it will happen - it probably won't. But I think there's a lot better than no chance. We win, and we are in the mix.

To be fair, I said "almost not chance" (I just didn't bold the "almost) ;)

My point about the polls is this; assuming we beat OSU, I don't think we jump them in the polls. Assuming Baylor beats Texas, then they too remain ahead of us. That would make us the 3 ranked Big XII team. I just don't think we would move up enough to overtake OSU, and that would ultimately be the downfall (of our BCS chances). It's possible that we jump OSU (but I can't imagine the chances being very good, unless we were to absolutely blow them out).

As for the Cotton, you're right, the chances are probably better than I gave, but knowing how bowls try not to have repeat teams, it seems unlikely. Of course there is also something to be said for ticket sales, and with OU, that's a no brainer.

[Salt City Sooner]

To be fair, I said "almost not chance" (I just didn't bold the "almost) ;)

My point about the polls is this; assuming we beat OSU, I don't think we jump them in the polls. Assuming Baylor beats Texas, then they too remain ahead of us. That would make us the 3 ranked Big XII team. I just don't think we would move up enough to overtake OSU, and that would ultimately be the downfall (of our BCS chances). It's possible that we jump OSU (but I can't imagine the chances being very good, unless we were to absolutely blow them out).

As for the Cotton, you're right, the chances are probably better than I gave, but knowing how bowls try not to have repeat teams, it seems unlikely. Of course there is also something to be said for ticket sales, and with OU, that's a no brainer.
OU jumping OSU with a win might not be quite the stretch, at least for any voter who did their homework. Same record, OU would own head to head w/ a win on OSU's home field, & OSU's other loss is WAY worse than either of OU's defeats. Basically, the only mitigating point for OSU would be their respective games against Baylor, & they got BU in Stilly while OU had to go to Waco.

[8timechamps]

OU jumping OSU with a win might not be quite the stretch, at least for any voter who did their homework. Same record, OU would own head to head w/ a win on OSU's home field, & OSU's other loss is WAY worse than either of OU's defeats. Basically, the only mitigating point for OSU would be their respective games against Baylor, & they got BU in Stilly while OU had to go to Waco.

True, if there was that much thought put into things. The problem with the polls has always been the same, it's more important when you lose, than who you lose to, and that's OSU's advantage right now.

The one thing that could help OU, is that the computers aren't that fond of OSU. The margin between OU and OSU in the computers is closer than that of the BCS as a whole.

[yermom]

i can't imagine not jumping OSU, but i'm also not convinced Baylor beats Texas

[SicEmBaylor]

Can we haz BCS plz?

[BoulderSooner79]

i can't imagine not jumping OSU...

..even after they kick our azz?