jkm, the stolen pifwafwi
11/18/2013, 08:53 PM
Since there is so much angst about our recruiting rolling around, I thought that I'd look to see if there really was a qualitative difference in our play as a result of our horrid recruiting. The following is a look at our pass defense results for the years 2007 through 2013.
Assumptions
1. Statistics used -> Pass Defense Ranking, Pass Effic Defense Ranking, INTs, Opponent Passing TDs, and Individual INTs. I'm using rankings in order to smooth out some of the hiccups caused by college football changing over time. What I'd like to use is a calculated statistic that ranks all pass defenses based on opponent mean statistics (whether we were +/- compared with their averages). That would smooth out any years where we had an abnormally hard schedule vs the pass. Unfortunately, no such statistic exists
2. We used 4 DBs for most of the years except for 2007 and 2010 where we used 5 almost all year. This makes the average stars look weird.
Hypothesis
My theory going into this was that we'd see more discipline from the 3* guys and more plays from the 4* guys. Meaning that the 3* guys would be out of position less resulting in less overall yards, but the 4*s would have an edge in athleticism producing more INTs. The question is which is more important. A turnover equates to roughly 3.1 more points for OU. However, each 20 ranks in pass defense equates to 2.5 points (roughly).
So what do we see?
http://ouportal.com/screenshots/passdefense.png
So most of the numbers stay even regardless of our star rating. The biggest bouncer is the actual number of pass yards given up which fluctuates all over the place.
Notes:
1. We've had only 1 3* safety -> Quentin Carter. He and Tony Jefferson were also a virtual dead heat in stats those years.
2. We've only had 3 3* corners -> Colvin, Jackson, and Sanchez -> All have been/are really good.
INTs:
Strangely enough, the biggest factor in INTs is not star ranking but age.
Freshmen (Players/INTs)
3* - 1/0 - Avg 0
4* - 1/2 - Avg 2
Sophomores (Players/INTs)
3* - 1/0 - Avg 0
4* - 2/5 - Avg 2.5
Juniors (Players/INTs)
3* - 3/10 - Avg 3.3
4* - 8/23 - Avg 2.9
Seniors (Players/INTs)
3* - 4/10 - Avg 2.5
4* - 10/25 - Avg 2.5
Conclusions
Based on results thus far, there really isn't any reason to freak out about lowly ranked DBs at this point. Statistically everything is right in line with what we had with "higher" ranked classes and has had much less variance. My initial hypothesis was 1/2 right and 1/2 undetermined. Our INT totals went down last year but are back up this year. Need more data on that one.
Thoughts?
Btw, run defense is going to be tougher as I'm going to have DL/LB/S in that one. It will probably be too much, but we'll see.
Assumptions
1. Statistics used -> Pass Defense Ranking, Pass Effic Defense Ranking, INTs, Opponent Passing TDs, and Individual INTs. I'm using rankings in order to smooth out some of the hiccups caused by college football changing over time. What I'd like to use is a calculated statistic that ranks all pass defenses based on opponent mean statistics (whether we were +/- compared with their averages). That would smooth out any years where we had an abnormally hard schedule vs the pass. Unfortunately, no such statistic exists
2. We used 4 DBs for most of the years except for 2007 and 2010 where we used 5 almost all year. This makes the average stars look weird.
Hypothesis
My theory going into this was that we'd see more discipline from the 3* guys and more plays from the 4* guys. Meaning that the 3* guys would be out of position less resulting in less overall yards, but the 4*s would have an edge in athleticism producing more INTs. The question is which is more important. A turnover equates to roughly 3.1 more points for OU. However, each 20 ranks in pass defense equates to 2.5 points (roughly).
So what do we see?
http://ouportal.com/screenshots/passdefense.png
So most of the numbers stay even regardless of our star rating. The biggest bouncer is the actual number of pass yards given up which fluctuates all over the place.
Notes:
1. We've had only 1 3* safety -> Quentin Carter. He and Tony Jefferson were also a virtual dead heat in stats those years.
2. We've only had 3 3* corners -> Colvin, Jackson, and Sanchez -> All have been/are really good.
INTs:
Strangely enough, the biggest factor in INTs is not star ranking but age.
Freshmen (Players/INTs)
3* - 1/0 - Avg 0
4* - 1/2 - Avg 2
Sophomores (Players/INTs)
3* - 1/0 - Avg 0
4* - 2/5 - Avg 2.5
Juniors (Players/INTs)
3* - 3/10 - Avg 3.3
4* - 8/23 - Avg 2.9
Seniors (Players/INTs)
3* - 4/10 - Avg 2.5
4* - 10/25 - Avg 2.5
Conclusions
Based on results thus far, there really isn't any reason to freak out about lowly ranked DBs at this point. Statistically everything is right in line with what we had with "higher" ranked classes and has had much less variance. My initial hypothesis was 1/2 right and 1/2 undetermined. Our INT totals went down last year but are back up this year. Need more data on that one.
Thoughts?
Btw, run defense is going to be tougher as I'm going to have DL/LB/S in that one. It will probably be too much, but we'll see.