State of the Union: Mid-season Recruiting Update

[8timechamps]

A little over the midway point in the season, and things (as usual) have been quiet on the recruiting front. I thought this would be a good time to get you up to speed on what's going on with football recruiting (to the best of my ability).

First, we currently have 14 commits, which puts us at #35 nationally (I'll get to that in a minute). The current commitment list breaks down this way:

3 Outside Linebackers
3 Wide Receivers
2 Offensive Guards
2 Cornerbacks
1 Quarterback
1 Running Back/Full Back
1 Tight End (more probably a WR)
1 Defensive Tackle

With 14 commits, I expect OU to complete the class with between 22-25 total commits. So, we should see another 8-10 players picked up between now and national signing day.

As for out national ranking, I know this is a big focus for a lot of casual recruit-niks. However, I don't place a lot of importance on where we are ranked (especially now). But, since I know a lot of people do, it's worth noting that the only team ranked in the top 25 that has 15 or fewer players currently committed, is Florida (ranked #18). In other words, a lot of the top 25 have nearly reached their limit on 2014 commits or are very close. If you are the type of person to read a lot into the rankings, it's not time to panic...OU is typically on the fringe of the 25 (or lower) at this point in the cycle. Historically, OU has finished very strong...and I think this year will be no exception.

I've noticed a few things since the season started that I think are note worthy.

1. With the coaching turmoil at some big name schools, OU is the beneficiary of some big name recruits shifting their interest toward Norman. This will only continue as these recruits schedule visits to Norman.

2. OU's defensive play this year has really helped on the recruiting trail. Prior to the season, OU had seemingly "lost out" on some big name defensive linemen. At this point in the season, those big name players are circling back around to OU. Former TCU DT Commit Zaycoven Henderson has renewed his interest in OU, and is scheduled to be at the Tech game. Current Utah commit, and DT Allan Havili will also be in Norman for the Tech game after renewing his interest. A couple of big name linemen that are current USC commits have visited recently, or will visit soon are also on the list.

3. Mike Stoops is a draw for secondary players. With 2 corners already committed, the Sooner will end up in very good shape in the secondary by the end of this cycle. There is no question Mike Stoops has the ability to draw in quality defense back talent.

4. Tim Kish is not a bust. Kish, who was criticized early (by myself and others), has done a good job of coaching the current LBs and prospective LBs have noticed. For 2014, I don't think we'll see any more LB commits (unless a high target player flips), but 2015 is looking good already.

5. 2015 - The changes Stoops made in coaching during the off season will pay dividends in the 2015 class. OU is already in great position with some offensive linemen (including one commit), and Bedenbaugh appears to be relentlessly looking for more. As is the case this year, the 2015 defensive players are noticing OU's renewed defensive ability and are showing interest in the Sooners.

Things will probably continue to be slow for the near term, but as it gets closer to NSD, I expect some big pick-ups for the Sooners. This class should have no problem finishing well within the top 20, and has a chance to finish much higher if some of the bigger name prospects commit (Mixon among them).

[Curly Bill]

I hope you're right about some of those big names maybe joining up because right now I'm very underwhelmed (FWIW). I don't care about the national ranking either, but as I've stated multiple times before, we're doing more recruiting against North Texas & New Mexico than we are Bama, aTm, and the like, and that to me is a concern.

[8timechamps]

I hope you're right about some of those big names maybe joining up because right now I'm very underwhelmed (FWIW). I don't care about the national ranking either, but as I've stated multiple times before, we're doing more recruiting against North Texas & New Mexico than we are Bama, aTm, and the like, and that to me is a concern.

We've definitely gotten the attention of some big name guys, but it only matters if we land some of them.

I think the battles against teams like North Texas and UNM are overblown. The bulk of our commits have had many other offers, from big schools. But, I understand what you're saying.

[picasso]

Yeah but it sounds better if you throw that in while complaining.

[BigTip]

Went to Hendrickson High football game last night in Plugerville, TX to watch my niece march in the band. Got to watch Samaje Perine run the ball. Sort of fun to watch a Sooner in waiting. He scored a couple of TDs. Looked pretty good. My brother in law, who has watched him all season, is not that impressed with him. "He's good, but he doesn't stand out like a man among boys, type guy."

[todd_shelton87]

8time, Do you think OU lands Steven Parker from Jenks?

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I hope you're right about some of those big names maybe joining up because right now I'm very underwhelmed (FWIW). I don't care about the national ranking either, but as I've stated multiple times before, we're doing more recruiting against North Texas & New Mexico than we are Bama, aTm, and the like, and that to me is a concern.

Here is the problem, what do you care who we recruited against if the kid ends up being really good?

http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/player-Zack-Sanchez-109995;_ylt=AsNS6h0C8rh6TcjTtj8mYqCWtJB4

I don't see Bama or whoever on the list after him but I guarantee you they'd love to have him now.

And honestly recruiting against aTm isn't something that I've historically been a fan of except at certain positions (OLB/DE mainly). That team tends to attract a lot of duds.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Supposedly last year's class sucked but I saw 2 true freshmen linebackers starting on Saturday. It looks like we beat out Arkansas and Arkansas St for Dominique Alexander. Could it be that we're actually evaluating talent/attitude/work ethic again with Mike back?

[Eielson]

I hope you're right about some of those big names maybe joining up because right now I'm very underwhelmed (FWIW). I don't care about the national ranking either, but as I've stated multiple times before, we're doing more recruiting against North Texas & New Mexico than we are Bama, aTm, and the like, and that to me is a concern.

Is this referring to anybody other than Jonathan Alvarez? Even 2-star Tito Windham was offered by FSU.

[8timechamps]

8time, Do you think OU lands Steven Parker from Jenks?

Yep.

He's taking his time, soaking in the recruiting experience (can't blame him). But, he's already been to Norman for "unofficial visits" almost 10 times (games and practices). It's really hard for be to believe he is that tuned into the program, and would end up elsewhere.

[8timechamps]

Supposedly last year's class sucked but I saw 2 true freshmen linebackers starting on Saturday. It looks like we beat out Arkansas and Arkansas St for Dominique Alexander. Could it be that we're actually evaluating talent/attitude/work ethic again with Mike back?

I was very high on Dominique Alexander after he committed. I really thought he would end up being excellent, I just didn't expect him to see the field so early. He's only going to get better.

I'll admit, I thought the signing of Jordan Evans was a "class/position filler". I expected him to be a career back-up and special teams player. He is clearly capable of effective play. You can never discount the "lifetime fan" or legacy factor. Those guys almost always end up being contributors. I'm glad I was wrong.

[SoonerorLater]

We are still recruiting players right? It's been almost two months since we've gotten any commitments at all, while other schools keep adding high profile recruits. We don't even seem to be on the radar of any of the Rivals Top 100 players.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

We are still recruiting players right? It's been almost two months since we've gotten any commitments at all, while other schools keep adding high profile recruits. We don't even seem to be on the radar of any of the Rivals Top 100 players.

And why is that a bad thing? Our hit rate for Rivals Top 100 players (meaning ones that we landed and actually did something at OU) is around 20% over the last decade. Compare this to our "evaluation pick" (defined as guys who either were 3 stars when we landed them or remained there) is about 45% over the same time period.

The only position that has a lead in Rivals top 100 over eval pick is DT - where you have 3 Top 100 guys (mcgruder, harris, McCoy) vs 1 eval pick (dvoracek).

[SoonerorLater]

And why is that a bad thing? Our hit rate for Rivals Top 100 players (meaning ones that we landed and actually did something at OU) is around 20% over the last decade. Compare this to our "evaluation pick" (defined as guys who either were 3 stars when we landed them or remained there) is about 45% over the same time period.

The only position that has a lead in Rivals top 100 over eval pick is DT - where you have 3 Top 100 guys (mcgruder, harris, McCoy) vs 1 eval pick (dvoracek).

The reason I say that is because the teams that have been winning national championships have highly ranked recruiting classes by Rivals. As I have said in the past having a highly ranked recruiting class does not ensure championships but not having a highly ranked class almost guarantees you won't. Over time and large numbers Rivals is amazingly good. I grant it isn't perfect but 4 & 5 star players are going to fare better than lower ranked players.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

The reason I say that is because the teams that have been winning national championships have highly ranked recruiting classes by Rivals. As I have said in the past having a highly ranked recruiting class does not ensure championships but not having a highly ranked class almost guarantees you won't. Over time and large numbers Rivals is amazingly good. I grant it isn't perfect but 4 & 5 star players are going to fare better than lower ranked players.

You do realize that college football is a rather closed system right? There are 8 blue blood teams that own the majority of college national championships. How hard is it to skew up player rankings towards those teams to create a self-fulfilling prophecy of a top 5 team? Now, how would I prove that this was the case?

1. Players rise up after they get interest in the 8 teams. Check
2. There is a no-name team of consistently low ranked players that is perennially in the top 10 AND sends a lot of guys to the NFL. Check
3. When you do analysis of recruiting rankings vs poll rankings you conveniently forget to correct the recruiting ranking to who actually played to get those wins. Check

The problem that I have with most of those "top ranked" kids is that they bail early. I just don't think you truly understand how hard it is to field a team when the guys that you count on at positions decide to leave before they are replaced.

[8timechamps]

We are still recruiting players right? It's been almost two months since we've gotten any commitments at all, while other schools keep adding high profile recruits. We don't even seem to be on the radar of any of the Rivals Top 100 players.

This is nothing new for OU. The remaining guys we have targeted (offered) are mostly high profile guys, and they typically wait until they can announce during their respective all-star game, or on National Signing Day.

I don't know specifically about the Rivals top 100, but I know we are on the radar for a lot of very highly recruited kids still uncommitted.

[8timechamps]

You do realize that college football is a rather closed system right? There are 8 blue blood teams that own the majority of college national championships. How hard is it to skew up player rankings towards those teams to create a self-fulfilling prophecy of a top 5 team? Now, how would I prove that this was the case?

1. Players rise up after they get interest in the 8 teams. Check
2. There is a no-name team of consistently low ranked players that is perennially in the top 10 AND sends a lot of guys to the NFL. Check
3. When you do analysis of recruiting rankings vs poll rankings you conveniently forget to correct the recruiting ranking to who actually played to get those wins. Check

The problem that I have with most of those "top ranked" kids is that they bail early. I just don't think you truly understand how hard it is to field a team when the guys that you count on at positions decide to leave before they are replaced.

Couldn't agree more.

All you have to do is go back and look at the progression of "Top [insert number]" lists, then see how they change as offers go out to kids. Kids that only had one or two offers (from small to mid regional schools) suddenly move onto these lists after they get two or three offers from the blue bloods.

THIS is exactly why I think "Class Rankings" are pointless. There are just too many kids funneling in from high school to accurate predict these rankings. Unless/until each high school in the country has it's own analyst, recruiting rankings (of any kind) will be very subjective. And since we know that's never going to happen, you have to take the lists/ranking with a grain of salt.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

The biggest issue lately has been Joe Paterno's big middle finger from the grave - Early Signings. It has made recruiting rankings eerily similar to preseason polls -> The guys at the top have to do a lot of bad things to go down the list whereas guys at the bottom have to be amazing to move up. It leaves so many kids in that 3 star range that have never properly been evaluated and no blue blood teams (but us) that have room for them at the end of the year. It is honestly the first innovative strategy that Stoops has come up with since he started hammering on summer workouts in 1999. He is leveraging something that Schmidt has proven excellent at -> getting unappreciated players to work their tail off -> and making it into a main strategy rather than a fallback. Call it "Moneyball" for college athletics.

[KantoSooner]

JKM, you, or others may know this, but what sort of psych profiling is done on recruits by OU? It would seem that a relatively non-threatening, game-like thing could be done on a laptop or pad that would give some insight into the player's attitudes (and ability to understand and follow simple instructions).

You'll recall the scene in The Blindside when Oher tested 'off the charts' for 'protective instincts'.

Also, we've done some camps in Texas. Can we/do we do them in California? Florida? Is it legal to offer 'scholarships' to summer camps and, if so, can that be underwritten by boosters?

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

JKM, you, or others may know this, but what sort of psych profiling is done on recruits by OU? It would seem that a relatively non-threatening, game-like thing could be done on a laptop or pad that would give some insight into the player's attitudes (and ability to understand and follow simple instructions).

You'll recall the scene in The Blindside when Oher tested 'off the charts' for 'protective instincts'.

Also, we've done some camps in Texas. Can we/do we do them in California? Florida? Is it legal to offer 'scholarships' to summer camps and, if so, can that be underwritten by boosters?

The camp thing is against NCAA rules. As for the tests, I believe it would have to be 100% voluntary and most of these kids tend to lean towards the path of least resistance (thus it would be something that would be heavily negative recruited against).

Negative recruiting is apparently one of the most powerful decision makers for these kids, which comes as no surprise since negative political campaigning is the only thing that motivates voters. It is so powerful that we had to replace an OL coach that took someone who was "a guy" at the beginning of his senior year and made him into a top 5 pick, because he was a target.

That being said, our coaches should be able to build a profile (or persona) of the characteristics most often displayed by the kids that overachieve.

[8timechamps]

JKM, you, or others may know this, but what sort of psych profiling is done on recruits by OU? It would seem that a relatively non-threatening, game-like thing could be done on a laptop or pad that would give some insight into the player's attitudes (and ability to understand and follow simple instructions).

You'll recall the scene in The Blindside when Oher tested 'off the charts' for 'protective instincts'.

Also, we've done some camps in Texas. Can we/do we do them in California? Florida? Is it legal to offer 'scholarships' to summer camps and, if so, can that be underwritten by boosters?

The best that we (or any school) can do is talk with the players coaches/teacher/counselors. And I know OU does all of that. Unfortunately, that's about all they can do, and that leaves plenty of room for a few bad apples to slip through the cracks.

The camps we do in other states are satellite camps. In fact, they aren't even officially OU camps. The way it works is that OU corroborates with another school (typically a small school in a lower division). The small school hosts the camp, and uses their coaches and facilities to run it. OU coaches show up to watch, but are prohibited to have any contact with the recruits during these camps.

On average, OU only does one satellite camp a year. It's never really been addressed "why" they don't do more, but I think it has a lot to do with how much OU goes through to ask another school to host, and the cost/commitment of the other school. About the only benefit to the host school is a chance to land a player if he doesn't receive a D1 offer.

[todd_shelton87]

Read on Rivals Steven Parker # 6 Defensive back in the country, is going to committ elsewhere?

That would be a huge loss, if OU didn't land him.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Read on Rivals Steven Parker # 6 Defensive back in the country, is going to committ elsewhere?

That would be a huge loss, if OU didn't land him.

Are we absolutely sure about this? Jenks hasn't really produced a great player since 1998. The only DB they've had since then was Carter who was rated similar and was an average guy at the D1 level. I'm not saying it is impossible that he is going to be an All American, but I daresay that it is highly likely he is a little over ranked

[8timechamps]

Read on Rivals Steven Parker # 6 Defensive back in the country, is going to committ elsewhere?

That would be a huge loss, if OU didn't land him.

There's been a lot of speculation about this, and A&M is the team of interest right now. I would be shocked, maybe more so than any other time, if he doesn't end up at OU...however, A&M is the one team that has always worried me with Parker. A lot of people thought OSU was the team to worry about, but A&M has always been the biggest concern.

Here's the deal though, he just took his official to A&M. So, naturally he's pumped about that program. Time works in OU's favor here, as the further he gets away from the visit, the less likely he is to commit. He's been to Norman 7 times since January, a life long Sooner fan, it's just hard for me to think he'll end up elsewhere. But, A&M is the hot team in recruiting right now.

I'll add that DB is probably my furthest concern. It would hurt to lose a top in-state kid, but from a position standpoint, it wouldn't be the worst loss.

[westbrooke]

There's been a lot of speculation about this, and A&M is the team of interest right now. I would be shocked, maybe more so than any other time, if he doesn't end up at OU...however, A&M is the one team that has always worried me with Parker. A lot of people thought OSU was the team to worry about, but A&M has always been the biggest concern.

Here's the deal though, he just took his official to A&M. So, naturally he's pumped about that program. Time works in OU's favor here, as the further he gets away from the visit, the less likely he is to commit. He's been to Norman 7 times since January, a life long Sooner fan, it's just hard for me to think he'll end up elsewhere. But, A&M is the hot team in recruiting right now.

I'll add that DB is probably my furthest concern. It would hurt to lose a top in-state kid, but from a position standpoint, it wouldn't be the worst loss.

Possible that the speculation around Sumlin to USC keeps Parker from committing any time soon and buys us the time you mentioned?

[8timechamps]

Possible that the speculation around Sumlin to USC keeps Parker from committing any time soon and buys us the time you mentioned?

I think that could be a factor. I think he was very close to committing yesterday, but someone got in his ear and settled him down. It's not uncommon for guys to want to commit if they've had a great time on an official visit, but when that happens, it usually doesn't stick.

I think Parker would have been a Sooner back in the summer if his parents hadn't insisted that he take his visits. I think that's a sign of good parenting, make sure he sees what is out there. I also think they want him in-state.

Since I don't think anyone is discounting the Sumlin to USC thing, I'm sure that news made an impact on him. Who knows how real it is though.

[Ruf/Nek7]

I just hope we didn't take the approach we took with Manning. I know we offered Parker at a more appropriate time but he is not really a guy you can "assume" is in the bag and put off to recruit others with more intensity.

It would not hurt OU to miss on a DB right now but it is very discouraging to see top Oklahoma talent going $EC.

[SoonerorLater]

Why are we not in the mix on guys like this? Right next door and we didn't even offer. We have the most prestigious college football program of all time (according to ESPN not me) and we aren't leveraging it worth a hoot. Switzer would have had this guy in the bag or someone as just as good.

http://alabama.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1579104

[8timechamps]

Why are we not in the mix on guys like this? Right next door and we didn't even offer. We have the most prestigious college football program of all time (according to ESPN not me) and we aren't leveraging it worth a hoot. Switzer would have had this guy in the bag or someone as just as good.

http://alabama.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1579104

Hard to know. There are so many good players out there, and OU can only offer so many. Some schools will throw an offer out to any good player, but OU has always only offered the guys they could spend time recruiting. Also, who knows, maybe this kid is a grade risk, maybe he was contacted by an OU coach early in the process and said "don't bother". You never know why a kid wasn't recruited.

I doubt seriously they just missed him when looking for DTs. There is a reason why OU didn't pursue him, we just don't know what that reason was...and probably never will.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Why are we not in the mix on guys like this? Right next door and we didn't even offer. We have the most prestigious college football program of all time (according to ESPN not me) and we aren't leveraging it worth a hoot. Switzer would have had this guy in the bag or someone as just as good.

http://alabama.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1579104

Couple of things

1) Getting guys out of Arkansas has always been abnormally difficult for us. Even Switzer only got a handful of guys from there, most are in state locks. Stoops hasn't gotten more than one out of there and he was a transfer legacy.
2) Stoops and Co got burned by a few recruits back in 2000 and just don't emphasize the area anymore. They also got burned by Justin Williams from Memphis (which got us an NCAA infraction because the school LIED about his transcript) and don't recruit that area anymore either. Tennessee later got busted for something similar.
3) Rivals hasn't exactly been stellar at projecting DTs outside of the top 3. More of those guys have been drafted as OL than DTs.

edit: forgot to include that even Keith Jackson encouraged his son to go to Arkansas. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Jackson_(defensive_tackle)

[SoonerorLater]

Even for all the 4 and 5 star deniers this should be good news. If true this could be a big pickup.

https://twitter.com/DeanBlevins

[8timechamps]

Even for all the 4 and 5 star deniers this should be good news. If true this could be a big pickup.

https://twitter.com/DeanBlevins

I think this is very close to happening.

There's a reason we passed on a couple of "sure things" recently. I would be more excited about keeping the instate talent than I am about the stars.

[Mjcpr]

I hope Stevie is the knucklehead of the family.

[8timechamps]

I hope Stevie is the knucklehead of the family.

I actually think his actions have something to do with mama rethinking OU. If Stevie struggles 60 miles away from home, I think mama thinks "Dre" may need to be closer to home.

[SoonerorLater]

Another update. Looks like our recruiting class "improved it's ranking" Alex Dalton is now a 4 star by Rivals. Let's just assume it's directly related to improved on field play.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Another update. Looks like our recruiting class "improved it's ranking" Alex Dalton is now a 4 star by Rivals. Let's just assume it's directly related to improved on field play.

heh, so he is still the 17th best in the state, but he is considered a better guard now (from 13 to 7). There are now 2 3*s ranked ahead of him instate.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3288;_ylt=Aty9YSpisshla2ODLELuWIOZtJB4

And holy crap, I didn't realize that Kentucky recruited Ohio that hard.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Another update. Looks like our recruiting class "improved it's ranking" Alex Dalton is now a 4 star by Rivals. Let's just assume it's directly related to improved on field play.

Seriously, though, based on last year's draft Ohio is the place to go for guards. 25% of the drafted guards were from Ohio.

[Ruf/Nek7]

Another update. Looks like our recruiting class "improved it's ranking" Alex Dalton is now a 4 star by Rivals. Let's just assume it's directly related to improved on field play.

Todd did fall out but is still a 4*. He has suffered from bad QB play. Now i am waiting for a full update of the rankings of guys because some of our 2* guys should bump up IMO.

[SoonerorLater]

Todd did fall out but is still a 4*. He has suffered from bad QB play. Now i am waiting for a full update of the rankings of guys because some of our 2* guys should bump up IMO.

A prescient observation. Looks like Tito Windham is now a 3 star.

http://sports.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/player-Tito-Windham-149172;_ylt=AjdqN6CSFTzAa.O_qMfQuUJDPZB4

[Scott D]

heh, so he is still the 17th best in the state, but he is considered a better guard now (from 13 to 7). There are now 2 3*s ranked ahead of him instate.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3288;_ylt=Aty9YSpisshla2ODLELuWIOZtJB4

And holy crap, I didn't realize that Kentucky recruited Ohio that hard.

the recruiting battles between the states are even more amusing in basketball.

[SoonerorLater]

heh, so he is still the 17th best in the state, but he is considered a better guard now (from 13 to 7). There are now 2 3*s ranked ahead of him instate.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3288;_ylt=Aty9YSpisshla2ODLELuWIOZtJB4

And holy crap, I didn't realize that Kentucky recruited Ohio that hard.

I think Kentucky looks at the Ohio area recruiting-wise like OU views Texas