Will AD reach his recently announced goals?

[stoopified]

Recently I heard AD say he would rush for 2500 yards this year and would break Emmit Smith's career rushing mark in 2017.I need to break this down to get my head around it.

First off in order to rush for 2500 yards AD has to average nearly 160 yards per game for the 16 game slate.AD did average around 160 YPG in the last 10 games last year but to do it for an entire season will be tough. I personally find it unlikely that Adrian will net 2500 yards this year but I do see him being able to crack the 2,000 yard barrier again and this time I think he gets the single season mark.

As for breaking the all-time rushing record in 2017? That would require 5 straight years averaging over 2,000 yards ber year.It should be noted at this point that AD currently haveraged around 1475 yards per year for the last SIX seasons. Convential wisdom is that rbs slow down and are less effective in the latter part of their careers.There are so many variables out of AD's control including: 1) Will he stay healthy, 2)Will his line stay healthy and effective, 3) Will his qb be effective enough as a passer to keep teams from stacking their D to stop the run. While I do think AD can break the NFL career mark,I just don't see it happening by 2017.IMHO I think AD needs to play 14 seasons to get the record and while staying healthy for 12 years is tough,14 years is tougher.

Bottom line, I do think AD will get the single season record but not 2500,As for the career mark,I just don't see it, as it is so hard to stay healthy and put up the necessary numbers.I see AD ending up at somewhere around 15,000 career yards,which would mark Peterson as what he is,one of the all-time best.I hope Adrian reaches both goals and proves me qwrong.

[badger]

The one thing that will get him to 2500 is also the thing that will prevent him from getting there: Lack of PASSING game.

AD will have the amount of carries (several times over) needed to get up to 2500. However, teams with good defenses will be able to stop him, since the teams won't need to guard against the throw (with apologies to Christian Ponder for disrespecting, but seriously, you and your receiver corps suck)

[jkjsooner]

I'm hoping he sets the single season record. The 2500 number is a lot though. He showed he can continue at that pace for quite a few games so it isn't totally out of the question but I sure wouldn't bet on it.

Obviously an injury would change everything.

As for the career rushing record, if he remains healthy and productive he'll reach it but those are huge questions.


My question is what will it take from here on out for AD to make the hall of fame? I think he's close right now. Either one more monster season or two or so good seasons (1200 yards or so) will get him there. He's at 8849 right now and most guys who have 11,000 are or will be in the hall of fame - and many of those guys didn't set the single game rushing record or come within 9 yards of the season rushing record.

If he rushes for 600 yards this season that would put him roughly equal with Earl Campbell's career and it would be in the same number of years.

[badger]

HOF debate: In an era when receivers and quarterbacks rule the field and running backs get cut before age 30, AD signs a mega contract extension and breaks Eric Dickerson's record*

*Next season!

I'd say he's a shoo in

[swardboy]

It's almost like AD is in a catch-22 situation. Ponder's Pitiful Passing is what gets Adrian all those rushing opportunities. I mean, what can Minnysoda do elseways? And 8 in the box limits the yards he can achieve, even though he's achieving yards through his super human effort.

But put in a prolific passer, and the number of rushes drop. What's a super human to do?

[SoonerorLater]

I don't think 2500 yards is realistic. Not impossible but I wouldn't think there is even a one per cent chance. He's averaged about 20 carries per game in his NFL career. At that pace he would have to average almost 8 yards per carry to hit 2500 yds. In order to hit 2500 he would have to up his carries to about 30 per game (a 50% increase) and average 5.2 per carry which is still greater than his career average.

[cvsooner]

AD's running skills should open up opportunities for Ponder and his receivers, if they can take advantage of them.

[stoopified]

It's almost like AD is in a catch-22 situation. Ponder's Pitiful Passing is what gets Adrian all those rushing opportunities. I mean, what can Minnysoda do elseways? And 8 in the box limits the yards he can achieve, even though he's achieving yards through his super human effort.

But put in a prolific passer, and the number of rushes drop. What's a super human to do?While agree Ponder is NOT an elite NFL qb,I think he has improved enough to be an average NFL starting qb. The Vikings found out the difference when Ponder went down lat year and there was no passing threat. For AD to have optimum sucess you have to walk a fine between having a good enough qb to keep the D honest and a qb good enough to carry the offense thru the passing game.For AD's sake he is lucky that Ponder is the former and not the latter category of qb.

[Collier11]

Doubtful, but if anyone does reach that type of level it would be him

[8timechamps]

I have no reason to think AD won't accomplish his goal. The historical data seems to back him up. Besides, he's a robot, they can do anything.

[birddog]

He's gotta bust open a pantload of long gains. What else hurts him is he will be used in the passing game which will reduce his number of rushes. I could seem him with 1800 rushing and 800 receiving

[Therealsouthsider]

...2000 divided by 16 is 125...hardly an insurmountable avg., has anyone had two 2000 yd seasons?

...wouldn't 134 a game just about do it? Somebody do the math, I'm too lazy

ss

[agoo758]

What an absurd thread.......I like it!.....I predict Adrian breaks the 3000 mark in 2013!

[JLMSOONER]

In my mind its a goal! AD has set high expectations of himself. Good for him. If he does or doesn't achieve them isn't the most important part. He knows its a stretch, but I guarantee you be will do everything he can go get there. Even if he doesn't achieve those goals it doesn't mean he failed for the season.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

Greg Jennings is gonna help a ton in getting the field stretched out a little bit. If Ponder can get him the ball at all, I'd expect AD to at least increase his YPC this year.

[SoonerorLater]

I could be wrong. He's now averaging 78 yds per carry

[okiewaker]

His first touch of the season,,,up the gut for 78 yd TD. Think he's on his way.