champions77
7/22/2013, 07:50 AM
From Geoff Ketchum of Orangebloods ...
This isn't about doom and gloom. This isn't about screaming "Fire!" in a
crowded theater. This isn't about writing an article that produces clicks
or sells subs or whatever motivation some think might be behind the
genesis of what you will soon read.
This is about keeping it as real as possible and every Longhorn coach,
administrative official and fan would be wise to pay attention. In fact,
anyone with a special interest in the Big 12 should be paying attention
because the information in this section is critical to their
self-interests, as we address the conference's biggest elephant in the
room ...
The SEC.
Two years ago, when Texas A&M made its move to the No. 1 conference in
America, worriers were shouted down when concerns were brought up about
the impact that the sudden change in recruiting dynamics that would take
place with the SEC's implementation of permanent roots in the Lone Star
State. The nervous Nellies were told that it was ridiculous to think that
everything would change just because a school that had lagged behind in
the Big 12 for a decade had left for fewer burnt orange pastures.
At the very top of the list of people scoffing at the notion that A&M's
move would forever change things in this state was DeLoss Dodds and the
rest of the Longhorn administrative staff.
Well, Dodds was wrong. The Longhorn administration was wrong. In fact, not
only were they critically wrong about one of the biggest shifting dynamics
in the history of college athletics, they were incredibly off-base with
the projected timing of any impact that might be created. After years of
dominating and controlling the recruiting process in the state of Texas,
Dodds and Co. overestimated the UT position, believing that whatever
impact might be felt would be outside of their perimeter.
Translation: The Sooners, Red Raiders and Bears of the world might have to
adjust the way things work in their worlds, but the Longhorns are the big
pimp in this state and no amount of SEC presence was going to change that
fact.
Oops. Actually, double oops.
The ugly little truth of the matter is that two years ago the SEC barely
had a presence in the state of Texas and a case can be made that in less
than 24 months the conference has officially taken control of things. You
don't need to take my word for it ... let's just look at the facts.
Consider that two years ago, exactly one player from the ranks of the 2012
Lone Star Recruiting Top 25 signed with an SEC school (not including Texas
A&M) and that was Dallas Wilmer Hutchins defensive back LaDarrell McNeil,
a player that signed with Tennessee and didn't have an offer from either
Texas or Oklahoma. The next highest prospect on the list to sign with an
SEC school was Katy Morton Ranch defensive end Danielle Hunter, who ranked
No. 38 on the list and signed with LSU. In terms of the impact prospects
in Texas that year, that was pretty much the depths of the impact by the
SEC.
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Florida and Georgia were all
shut out, mostly without so much as a serious sniff from the elite
prospects in the state of Texas. We're talking a mere two seasons ago.
One year later, the dynamics started changed in a big way. The state's No. 1
(Alabama), No. 13 (Alabama), No. 17 (Mississippi State), and No. 24 (Ole
Miss) prospects all landed at schools that were unable to crack a dent in
the previous recruiting year. Four other prospects on the LSR Top 100 list
also signed with SEC schools (not including Texas A&M). Oh, and for the
first time in a very long time, the Longhorns were on the wrong end of two
head-to-head losses.
Keep in mind that I'm not even talking about the success of Texas A&M in
this recruiting discussion, which completely changed, as the Aggies were
able to secure the state's No. 2, No. 10, No. 11, No. 22, No. 23, No. 26,
No. 27, No. 32, No. 34, No. 35 and No. 36 prospects, which was a massive
role-reversal from what they had accomplished in the last half dozen years
previous to the 2012 recruiting class. That's 36 percent of the state's
top 25 prospects headed to the SEC.
The trends are worse.
Consider that in the current 2014 LSR Top 100 rankings, SEC schools (not
including A&M) have already landed commitments from the No. 11, No. 14,
No. 22, No. 33 and No. 37 prospects on the list and this doesn't include
the likes of Tony Brown, Jamal Adams and Solomon Thomas, top 10 prospects
who are all seriously considering SEC schools. Meanwhile, Alabama,
Arkansas and Ole Miss have all already dipped into the Texas talent pool
in the Class of 2015, landing commitments from likely four-star prospects.
Of course, numbers are just numbers. Some will point to the huge number of
prospects in the state of Texas that are available and will suggest that
the data isn't nearly as concerning as I might suggest. Yet, this is about
more than numbers because I'm telling you right now as plainly as I can
that the culture in the state is changing and it's changing in a direction
that should scare the living daylights out of those that have assumed that
the state will forever remain Big 12 country, first and foremost.
The decision between signing with a school in the nation's top league or
going anywhere else is starting to become a major tipping point in the
recruitment of many kids in this state, as they are becoming sold in large
numbers on the idea of being "SEC football players," which currently
embodies the best of the best in college football. Coinciding with the
SEC's rise is the fact that Oklahoma seems almost non-existent among the
top prospects in the Lone Star State at the moment, as the Sooners seem to
fall a little more back to the pack each year, highlighted by the fact
that they don't have a single top 40 commitment on the current 2014 LSR
Top 100. The likes of Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech appear to be
virtually
powerless against the recruiting strength of the SEC.
That leaves Texas all by itself to ward off the emerging competition,
which is one of the reasons the Longhorns MUST produce big results on the
field this season, as they've gone from the school that never loses
head-to-head battles against anyone to one that is having to scrap to fill
up the 2014 recruiting class with second- and third options.
We're not talking about a little boy crying wolf right now because the
wolf is already eating the little boy and is moving into other homes,
raiding the fridges of those that once scoffed and kicking its feet up on
the living room furniture just because it wants you to know it was there.
This is not a drill. This is not a test. This is for real.
If OU was in the SEC, would we be ranked outside the top 25 in 2014 recruiting? Highly unlikely.
This isn't about doom and gloom. This isn't about screaming "Fire!" in a
crowded theater. This isn't about writing an article that produces clicks
or sells subs or whatever motivation some think might be behind the
genesis of what you will soon read.
This is about keeping it as real as possible and every Longhorn coach,
administrative official and fan would be wise to pay attention. In fact,
anyone with a special interest in the Big 12 should be paying attention
because the information in this section is critical to their
self-interests, as we address the conference's biggest elephant in the
room ...
The SEC.
Two years ago, when Texas A&M made its move to the No. 1 conference in
America, worriers were shouted down when concerns were brought up about
the impact that the sudden change in recruiting dynamics that would take
place with the SEC's implementation of permanent roots in the Lone Star
State. The nervous Nellies were told that it was ridiculous to think that
everything would change just because a school that had lagged behind in
the Big 12 for a decade had left for fewer burnt orange pastures.
At the very top of the list of people scoffing at the notion that A&M's
move would forever change things in this state was DeLoss Dodds and the
rest of the Longhorn administrative staff.
Well, Dodds was wrong. The Longhorn administration was wrong. In fact, not
only were they critically wrong about one of the biggest shifting dynamics
in the history of college athletics, they were incredibly off-base with
the projected timing of any impact that might be created. After years of
dominating and controlling the recruiting process in the state of Texas,
Dodds and Co. overestimated the UT position, believing that whatever
impact might be felt would be outside of their perimeter.
Translation: The Sooners, Red Raiders and Bears of the world might have to
adjust the way things work in their worlds, but the Longhorns are the big
pimp in this state and no amount of SEC presence was going to change that
fact.
Oops. Actually, double oops.
The ugly little truth of the matter is that two years ago the SEC barely
had a presence in the state of Texas and a case can be made that in less
than 24 months the conference has officially taken control of things. You
don't need to take my word for it ... let's just look at the facts.
Consider that two years ago, exactly one player from the ranks of the 2012
Lone Star Recruiting Top 25 signed with an SEC school (not including Texas
A&M) and that was Dallas Wilmer Hutchins defensive back LaDarrell McNeil,
a player that signed with Tennessee and didn't have an offer from either
Texas or Oklahoma. The next highest prospect on the list to sign with an
SEC school was Katy Morton Ranch defensive end Danielle Hunter, who ranked
No. 38 on the list and signed with LSU. In terms of the impact prospects
in Texas that year, that was pretty much the depths of the impact by the
SEC.
Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Florida and Georgia were all
shut out, mostly without so much as a serious sniff from the elite
prospects in the state of Texas. We're talking a mere two seasons ago.
One year later, the dynamics started changed in a big way. The state's No. 1
(Alabama), No. 13 (Alabama), No. 17 (Mississippi State), and No. 24 (Ole
Miss) prospects all landed at schools that were unable to crack a dent in
the previous recruiting year. Four other prospects on the LSR Top 100 list
also signed with SEC schools (not including Texas A&M). Oh, and for the
first time in a very long time, the Longhorns were on the wrong end of two
head-to-head losses.
Keep in mind that I'm not even talking about the success of Texas A&M in
this recruiting discussion, which completely changed, as the Aggies were
able to secure the state's No. 2, No. 10, No. 11, No. 22, No. 23, No. 26,
No. 27, No. 32, No. 34, No. 35 and No. 36 prospects, which was a massive
role-reversal from what they had accomplished in the last half dozen years
previous to the 2012 recruiting class. That's 36 percent of the state's
top 25 prospects headed to the SEC.
The trends are worse.
Consider that in the current 2014 LSR Top 100 rankings, SEC schools (not
including A&M) have already landed commitments from the No. 11, No. 14,
No. 22, No. 33 and No. 37 prospects on the list and this doesn't include
the likes of Tony Brown, Jamal Adams and Solomon Thomas, top 10 prospects
who are all seriously considering SEC schools. Meanwhile, Alabama,
Arkansas and Ole Miss have all already dipped into the Texas talent pool
in the Class of 2015, landing commitments from likely four-star prospects.
Of course, numbers are just numbers. Some will point to the huge number of
prospects in the state of Texas that are available and will suggest that
the data isn't nearly as concerning as I might suggest. Yet, this is about
more than numbers because I'm telling you right now as plainly as I can
that the culture in the state is changing and it's changing in a direction
that should scare the living daylights out of those that have assumed that
the state will forever remain Big 12 country, first and foremost.
The decision between signing with a school in the nation's top league or
going anywhere else is starting to become a major tipping point in the
recruitment of many kids in this state, as they are becoming sold in large
numbers on the idea of being "SEC football players," which currently
embodies the best of the best in college football. Coinciding with the
SEC's rise is the fact that Oklahoma seems almost non-existent among the
top prospects in the Lone Star State at the moment, as the Sooners seem to
fall a little more back to the pack each year, highlighted by the fact
that they don't have a single top 40 commitment on the current 2014 LSR
Top 100. The likes of Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech appear to be
virtually
powerless against the recruiting strength of the SEC.
That leaves Texas all by itself to ward off the emerging competition,
which is one of the reasons the Longhorns MUST produce big results on the
field this season, as they've gone from the school that never loses
head-to-head battles against anyone to one that is having to scrap to fill
up the 2014 recruiting class with second- and third options.
We're not talking about a little boy crying wolf right now because the
wolf is already eating the little boy and is moving into other homes,
raiding the fridges of those that once scoffed and kicking its feet up on
the living room furniture just because it wants you to know it was there.
This is not a drill. This is not a test. This is for real.
If OU was in the SEC, would we be ranked outside the top 25 in 2014 recruiting? Highly unlikely.