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8timechamps
5/22/2013, 09:26 PM
In recognition of being less than 100 days to kick-off of the 2013 season, I thought I'd start a series previewing the team. I'll cover every position, along with my forecast for starters. Hope you enjoy!

2013 Position Preview: Saftey

2012 Recap
One of the strong points on defense last year was the safety position, more specifically, free safety Tony Jefferson. TJ led the team in tackles and provided a solid run stopper and adequate coverage player. Jefferson's play helped the Sooners erase some bad memories from the previous year, and he finished the 2012 119 tackles and 2 interceptions. Two year starter Javon Harris also helpd to strengthen the Sooners secondary and back up Jesse Paulson played well in his spot duty.

2013 Preview
Although the Sooners defense had experience and efficiency at safety in 2012, both starters (and FS reserve) are gone. The Sooners will field two new players at the safety position, and no single player will come in with much (if any) experience playing safety at the college level. Here are the 2013 safeties:

#9 - Gabe Lynn (Senior)
Mike Stoops announced pre-spring that Gabe Lynn would be making a permanent safety. Coming into the 2013 season, Lynn will have the most on-field experience of any safety on the roster. That's a bonus. Unfortunately, Lynn has yet to live up to his billing coming out of high school. Lynn has good size and decent speed, and can be a big hitter on run support. Where Lynn has been lacking is in his ability to cover players either at the line of scrimmage or out of the back field. In addition, Lynn has struggled in communication on coverage and has been the victim of poor tackling at times. While he enters 2013 with the most experience, he's definitely going to have to show more ability than he has to this point if he hopes to lock down the position.

#10 - Quinten Hayes (Senior)
Like Lynn, Hayes was a big name in the recruiting world coming out of high school in 2009. Stoops opted to red shirt Hayes his freshman year in hopes that he would develop into a contributor in 2010. Unfortunately, Hayes failed to show much production in very limited duty as a sophomore and only recorded 3 tackles. In the spring of 2012, Quinten seemed to show some progression in his ability, but ran into off-the-filed issues and was suspended for the 2012 season. There is very little information, and almost no film on Hayes, so it's hard for me to say much of anything about his chances in 2013.

#24 - Trey Franks (Senior)
Trey Franks looked to be a promising receiver for the Sooner as a red shirt freshman in 2010 and that carried over to 2011, where Franks saw action in 11 games. Franks also contributed for the Sooners on special teams, seeing time as a return man. In 2012, Franks was suspended from the team and at one point it was uncertain if he would even remain a Sooner. After serving his suspension, Franks returned to the team and was moved to defensive back beginning in the spring of this year. Franks has always had the ability to separate himself with his speed, but until the spring, had never been seen on the defensive side of the ball as a Sooner. Franks showed flashed of being a good defender, and turned some heads in the spring game. Mike Stoops wasn't so fast to compliment Franks after the game telling the media that he still has a 'long way to go'.

#18 - Ahmad Thomas (Incoming Freshman)
Thomas was a 3 star recruit from Miami, and chose the Sooners over Notre Dame, Florida State, Auburn and others. While Thomas is an incoming freshman for 2013, he was an early enrollee and has had the advantage of practicing with the team. While Thomas is about as tall as Lynn and Hayes, he packs more weight on to his 6 foot frame. Early reports are that Thomas plays with a "swagger" and confidence not often seen from a true freshman. At his current level, Thomas is a better run support safety than a coverage guy, and closes hard. He will need to continue to develop his coverage skills, but has the athletic ability to produce early.

No number - Hatari Byrd (Incoming Freshman)
Bob Stoops has not made it a secret that he expects immediate help from Byrd. Byrd was a Scouts, Inc./ESPN top 300 player and picked OU over Notre Dame, UCLA, Ole Miss and others. The first thing you'll notice about Byrd is how much he doesn't look like a kid coming out of high school. Byrd is 6'1" and over 200 pounds, and very quick. He has sideline to sideline speed, and the ability to recover quickly and make plays in space. In high school, Byrd played in a scheme that required he play a lot inside the box, but if asked (as he will be in college), he can excel in deep coverage. He's a good balanced run stopper/coverage safety, and is expected to contribute immediately.

Predicted Two-Deep

Even with three seniors on the roster, the inexperience at safety outweighs the benefit. While players like Franks, Hayes and Lynn will certainly see playing time and may even start early, the secondary is going to be Mike Stoops signature on the 2013 defense, and along with that, the players he recruited will see time. Freshman Thomas and Bryd are a bit of a throw-back to big hitting safeties, and I predict that at some point in 2013, they will both start.

Strong Safety
Starter: Gabe Lynn
Reserve: Ahmad Thomas

Free Safety
Starter: Hatari Bryd
Reserve: Quinten Hayes

Soonerfan88
5/22/2013, 10:32 PM
Good rundown, thanks. Am I the only one that feels like Lynn has been here about 8 years already?

jkm, the stolen pifwafwi
5/23/2013, 12:05 PM
ouch, true freshman at safety? I wouldn't be surprised if one of the other seniors get the nod early and then they split rotation later in the season.

8timechamps
5/23/2013, 12:57 PM
ouch, true freshman at safety? I wouldn't be surprised if one of the other seniors get the nod early and then they split rotation later in the season.

It wouldn't surprise me if we see both Hayes/Franks and Lynn open the season, but I would be surprised if Byrd stays on the bench too long.

8timechamps
5/23/2013, 12:58 PM
Good rundown, thanks. Am I the only one that feels like Lynn has been here about 8 years already?

I thought he was a senior for the better part of last year.

thecrimsoncrusader
5/23/2013, 02:16 PM
Gabe Lynn has that Jimmy Stevens effect. Anytime the ball is in the air, I'm not going to look!!!

KantoSooner
5/23/2013, 03:11 PM
Can't wait 'til you get to kickers. From the spring game we're going to go from a decent kicking game to something that will make us weep.

Soonerjeepman
5/23/2013, 03:49 PM
thanks 8time...

FirstandGoal
5/23/2013, 06:57 PM
Thanks so much 8TC for taking the time for all of this awesomeness.

Mac94
5/24/2013, 08:19 AM
Good overview ... look forward to reading about other positions.

jkm, the stolen pifwafwi
5/24/2013, 10:37 AM
So I decided to see how bad the damage was going to be from graduation

SRs (including Jefferson) were responsible for 60% of our tackles, 50% of our sacks, 66% of our INTs. This is high in every category (normally around 45/45/50) with the differences being predominantly the departure of Jefferson (early entrants do that).

What we are looking for:

Tackles - Safety requires at least a 2:1 Solo:Assisted Tackle ratio and a great safety can run this up to a 3:1 ratio. Basically whoever we have out there has to be able to put down people in space (which we kinda struggled with last year). Both Harris and Jefferson were at 2:1 so that is our benchmark. Please note that every missed tackle brings down the solo count (which is why Jefferson was so low) so that is why the ratio tends to be accurate - Quentin Carter 3:1, TGRW 3.2:1, Pool 3:1.

INTs - Safeties have traditionally been where we get our INTs. Harris/Jefferson combined for 12 (with Colvin having the other 4) so a good season will have us replacing these from the set. If we find any kind of pass rush/run defense, we should see this number go up quite a bit (a good man-press D will force 30 a year).

starclassic tama
5/24/2013, 02:56 PM
If we find any kind of pass rush/run defense,

do you have any sort of confidence at all that this will happen?

8timechamps
5/24/2013, 05:56 PM
So I decided to see how bad the damage was going to be from graduation

SRs (including Jefferson) were responsible for 60% of our tackles, 50% of our sacks, 66% of our INTs. This is high in every category (normally around 45/45/50) with the differences being predominantly the departure of Jefferson (early entrants do that).

What we are looking for:

Tackles - Safety requires at least a 2:1 Solo:Assisted Tackle ratio and a great safety can run this up to a 3:1 ratio. Basically whoever we have out there has to be able to put down people in space (which we kinda struggled with last year). Both Harris and Jefferson were at 2:1 so that is our benchmark. Please note that every missed tackle brings down the solo count (which is why Jefferson was so low) so that is why the ratio tends to be accurate - Quentin Carter 3:1, TGRW 3.2:1, Pool 3:1.

INTs - Safeties have traditionally been where we get our INTs. Harris/Jefferson combined for 12 (with Colvin having the other 4) so a good season will have us replacing these from the set. If we find any kind of pass rush/run defense, we should see this number go up quite a bit (a good man-press D will force 30 a year).

Interesting look at the stats jk. I really thought the numbers would be a little more skewed in Jefferson's favor (over previous safeties) based on the defensive scheme Stoops played last year, and your numbers seem to reinforce that thinking.

One of the reasons I'm so high on Byrd is his ability to play in space. Hopefully, that translates to the next level, because I agree, that's one thing we struggled with last season.

8timechamps
5/24/2013, 05:56 PM
So I decided to see how bad the damage was going to be from graduation

SRs (including Jefferson) were responsible for 60% of our tackles, 50% of our sacks, 66% of our INTs. This is high in every category (normally around 45/45/50) with the differences being predominantly the departure of Jefferson (early entrants do that).

What we are looking for:

Tackles - Safety requires at least a 2:1 Solo:Assisted Tackle ratio and a great safety can run this up to a 3:1 ratio. Basically whoever we have out there has to be able to put down people in space (which we kinda struggled with last year). Both Harris and Jefferson were at 2:1 so that is our benchmark. Please note that every missed tackle brings down the solo count (which is why Jefferson was so low) so that is why the ratio tends to be accurate - Quentin Carter 3:1, TGRW 3.2:1, Pool 3:1.

INTs - Safeties have traditionally been where we get our INTs. Harris/Jefferson combined for 12 (with Colvin having the other 4) so a good season will have us replacing these from the set. If we find any kind of pass rush/run defense, we should see this number go up quite a bit (a good man-press D will force 30 a year).

Interesting look at the stats jk. I really thought the numbers would be a little more skewed in Jefferson's favor (over previous safeties) based on the defensive scheme Stoops played last year, and your numbers seem to reinforce that thinking.

One of the reasons I'm so high on Byrd is his ability to play in space. Hopefully, that translates to the next level, because I agree, that's one thing we struggled with last season.

jkm, the stolen pifwafwi
5/24/2013, 09:10 PM
do you have any sort of confidence at all that this will happen?

None