Because I'm an idiot, I did some research on DTs

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

So I started with this page -> http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3077;_ylt=Ag22DgPAlGmuUMuCdoJ5VGWZtJB4 and grabbed info from 2002-2010. I then used this page: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=DL&type=position to determine who got drafted.

Notes:
DE is filtered out of NFL list
Recruits that were projected as DEs and ate themselves into a DT are not considered (example -> http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Michael-Brockers-61222 who was the #3 DT taken last year). This is mainly because DT is a final position (if you aren't good enough you become an OL).

Results from some top schools that everyone here has envy for:

1. Alabama

Total Recruits on List: 18 (9 3 star, 9 4 star)
Total Draft Picks: 2 (3 Star) No clue about Anthony Bryant

2. Texas

Total Recruits on List: 18 (5 3*, 11 4*, 2 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 3 (2-5*, 1-4*) Roy Miller not on initial lists

3. LSU

Total Recruits on List: 15 (3 3*, 10 4*, 2 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 2 (2-4*) - Claude Wroten/Ricky Jean-Francois not on lists

4. OU

Total Recruits on List: 12 (5 3*, 6 4*, 1 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 1 (1-5*)

5. Georgia

Total Recruits on List: 7 (1 3*, 6 4*)
Total Draft Picks: 1 (1-4*) -> 4 others drafted that didn't make the list

6. USC

Total Recruits on List: 13 (4 3*, 9 4*)
Total Draft Picks: 3 (1-3*, 2-4*) -> 2 others drafted that didn't make the list

any other requests?

[fadada1]

Is Casey Studdard accounted for in your data?

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Some more stats

7/19 five stars drafted (ooo, look how good we are)
McCoy 1, Ngata 1, Austin 2, Watson 4, Okam/Pressley 5, Wright 7

1st round picks

Nebraska - Suh, Carriker -> Not listed
USC - Ellis 4*, Patterson -> Not listed
FSU - Bunkley 4*, Johnson -> Not listed
Tennessee - Harrell 4*, Williams -> Not listed
Miss State - Cox -> Not listed
Oklahoma -> McCoy 5*
Boston College -> BJ Raji -> Not listed
Auburn -> Nick Fairley -> Not listed
Cal -> Tyson Aluala -> Not listed
LSU -> Glenn Dorsey 4*
Alabama -> Dareus 3*
Baylor -> Taylor -> Not listed
Louisville -> Okoye -> Not listed
Memphis -> Poe -> Not Listed
Ole Miss -> Jerry -> Not Listed
Missouri -> Hood -> Not Listed
NC State -> McCargo -> Not Listed
Oregon -> Ngata 5*
Temple -> Wilkerson -> Not Listed

so 7 out of 24 1st round picks were listed on the top 50-85 of their position at DT coming out of high school

[cvsooner]

So what you're saying is the evaluating process of high schoolers headed into college is pretty inexact, at best.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

So what you're saying is the evaluating process of high schoolers headed into college is pretty inexact, at best.

I still stand that recruiting services are fairly accurate at certain positions where athleticism dominates -> running back, wide receiver or any other skill position. The problem is that they are very poor at predicting any position where there is a significant amount of growth needed. This is the list of guys that we've taken off of these lists. We have only had 1 starter that wasn't on them.

2003
4 stars
Carl Pendleton
Lawrence Dampeer
Steven Coleman
2006
3 stars
Adrian Taylor
5 stars
Gerald McCoy
2008
3 stars
Casey Walker
4 stars
Stacey McGee
2009
4 stars
Jamarkus McFarland
2010
3 stars
Damon Williams
Daniel Noble
Torrea Peterson
4 stars
Eric Humphrey

[cvsooner]

Wow. A lot of misses there, and only one real superstar.

[Curly Bill]

My take is that with the linemen that are best in high school, and so higher ranked by the recruiting services, whether it be on the OL or DL, the better kids are the ones that have matured early. So...once they get to college they've already come close to reaching their potential in terms of size and strength, meanwhile kids who didn't mature as fast, and thus in high school were behind the kids that did, not only often catch up to those faster maturers in college but surpass them.

[cleller]

Here's hoping one or more of those unknown, unloved future stars is hidden on our roster.

[OkieThunderLion]

Wow. A lot of misses there, and only one real superstar.

Only one star but a better than average rate of contribution (over 50%).

[KantoSooner]

My take is that with the linemen that are best in high school, and so higher ranked by the recruiting services, whether it be on the OL or DL, the better kids are the ones that have matured early. So...once they get to college they've already come close to reaching their potential in terms of size and strength, meanwhile kids who didn't mature as fast, and thus in high school were behind the kids that did, not only often catch up to those faster maturers in college but surpass them.

There was an article or something I read a couple months ago about this that linked exactly what you're talking about to the trend of parents holding athletically precocious kids back in school so that they would be competing against physically less developed opponents. Made precisely the linkage you state: that many high school super stars are already at their peak and simply don't have that much more to go when they get to college.
I would think coaches would understand this and take it into account when recruiting, but who knows? Sometimes the obvious isn't.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Only one star but a better than average rate of contribution (over 50%).

Contribution isn't enough with the expectations around our team. For us, contribution has to be averaging 2 3rd team all conference guys a year.

[cvsooner]

The other issue of maturing early is it allows for sloppy technique and the player can get away with it by just overwhelming and/or muscling the other player. The smaller, less developed player is almost forced to learn excellent technique to survive. Then when the physicality catches up...look out. The physically developed player meanwhile is doing remedial work at learning technique and suffers as a result. I think we've seen a fair amount of that, plus it strikes me that a lot of junior high and high school coaches, between rules and pressure to turn out winners, are not coaching technique well, if at all.

[OkieThunderLion]

Bolded meaningful contributors

1999-K Klein, R Richardson, J Hawk, Ware
2000-J Brown (OL), J Prishker (jc)
2001-D Dvoracek, T Harris, J Hagar, B Rayl (OL)
2002-D Joseph (OL), McGruder (tr)
2003-C Pendleton, S Coleman, M Dampeer
2004-R Ayodele(jc), C Bennett
2005-D Granger, C Moore, B Simmons (OL), B Blackard
2006-G McCoy, A Taylor
2007-
2008-S McGee, C Walker
2009-McFarland
2010-E Humphrey, D Williams, T Peterson, D Noble
2011-J Phillips, M Anderson, J Wade
2012-
2013-Huggins, Russell (jc)

2010 class was/is the killer.

[Tear Down This Wall]

2007 and 2012 were killers because no DTs were signed.

[Curly Bill]

2011 needs to come through - each of those 3 guys were highly rated coming out of high school, and so far they've not distinguished themselves. The good news is there's still time.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

1. I didn't count the classes before 2002 because rivals didn't have their rankings.

2. Is "meaningful" like a participation trophy? To me, meaningful means they made a significant contribution to our defense being top 10 quality (thus a pair of DTs on the all big 12 team). This doesn't necessarily mean they were drafted since there were a lot of guys in that 2000 range that weren't built for the pros but were outstanding college football players. If you go back and look at your list since 2005 and think about "who made us better on defense" that list is going to shrink dramatically.

The problem started with the 2005 class. That was the last year that we had more than 1 really good DT on campus (Dvoracek and Ayodele). Since then our DTs (as a unit) have steadily declined in talent. Having one good player like McCoy can cover some of that up, but when you play 3-4 guys it doesn't cover it up completely.

Edit: Also, if you look at our linebackers, they follow almost the EXACT. SAME. PATTERN.

[cvsooner]

So...we're really bad at evaluating talent and worse at developing it on defense. Swell.

[OkieThunderLion]

The problem started with the 2005 class. That was the last year that we had more than 1 really good DT on campus (Dvoracek and Ayodele).
'07, McCoy and Granger (pre-injuries). Mizzou couldn't handle them.

[LHSooner]

The problem started with the 2005 class. That was the last year that we had more than 1 really good DT on campus (Dvoracek and Ayodele). Since then our DTs (as a unit) have steadily declined in talent. Having one good player like McCoy can cover some of that up, but when you play 3-4 guys it doesn't cover it up completely.

Edit: Also, if you look at our linebackers, they follow almost the EXACT. SAME. PATTERN.

So are you implying that the problem is directly linked to Venables having complete control over the defense?

[starclassic tama]

i think it is a combination of bad luck coupled with the SEC starting to get all of those top guys around that time. i don't think it is a problem of evaluating or developing high school talent because many of those guys that were busts were guys almost everybody in the country wanted. i don't think it is a development issue because there were plenty of guys that were not highly recruited that developed into really good players.

on another note, 2013. does jordan phillips have any chance at all of becoming a star as a redshirt freshman in the same way mccoy did? i know they are two completely different players but phillips certainly looks the part. also, is jordan wade going to be close to being a solid contributer? and is marquis anderson a factor in the plans at all?

[8timechamps]

So I started with this page -> http://rivals.yahoo.com/oklahoma/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-3077;_ylt=Ag22DgPAlGmuUMuCdoJ5VGWZtJB4 and grabbed info from 2002-2010. I then used this page: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=DL&type=position to determine who got drafted.

Notes:
DE is filtered out of NFL list
Recruits that were projected as DEs and ate themselves into a DT are not considered (example -> http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Michael-Brockers-61222 who was the #3 DT taken last year). This is mainly because DT is a final position (if you aren't good enough you become an OL).

Results from some top schools that everyone here has envy for:

1. Alabama

Total Recruits on List: 18 (9 3 star, 9 4 star)
Total Draft Picks: 2 (3 Star) No clue about Anthony Bryant

2. Texas

Total Recruits on List: 18 (5 3*, 11 4*, 2 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 3 (2-5*, 1-4*) Roy Miller not on initial lists

3. LSU

Total Recruits on List: 15 (3 3*, 10 4*, 2 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 2 (2-4*) - Claude Wroten/Ricky Jean-Francois not on lists

4. OU

Total Recruits on List: 12 (5 3*, 6 4*, 1 5*)
Total Draft Picks: 1 (1-5*)

5. Georgia

Total Recruits on List: 7 (1 3*, 6 4*)
Total Draft Picks: 1 (1-4*) -> 4 others drafted that didn't make the list

6. USC

Total Recruits on List: 13 (4 3*, 9 4*)
Total Draft Picks: 3 (1-3*, 2-4*) -> 2 others drafted that didn't make the list

any other requests?

What sticks out most to me is the overall lack of the elusive 5 star DT. Of the teams listed, I think most would love to have the DTs that have played at most of those schools listed. Yet, only 5 five star players out of 83 players.

It would be interesting to see the position coaches for each school, broken down by each year/recruit. I think that would tell you a lot about the system's in place and why some schools seem to dominate the DTs.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

So are you implying that the problem is directly linked to Venables having complete control over the defense?

What I'm saying is that BV and Shipp started tanking on recruiting at the exact same time. I'm not sure if it was intentional, laziness, or bad luck. The key is that both positions decayed overall talent in the same time frame with the same strategy (IE we are going to put all of our eggs in one basket and not worry about finding any other eggs except these guys that are easy to get).

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

i think it is a combination of bad luck coupled with the SEC starting to get all of those top guys around that time. i don't think it is a problem of evaluating or developing high school talent because many of those guys that were busts were guys almost everybody in the country wanted. i don't think it is a development issue because there were plenty of guys that were not highly recruited that developed into really good players.

on another note, 2013. does jordan phillips have any chance at all of becoming a star as a redshirt freshman in the same way mccoy did? i know they are two completely different players but phillips certainly looks the part. also, is jordan wade going to be close to being a solid contributer? and is marquis anderson a factor in the plans at all?

The problem isn't the SEC getting the talent, it is the fact that our coaches are relying on recruiting services that are inaccurate.

[thecrimsoncrusader]

Jordan Phillips will pan out. He should have been starting this season, but Shipp was too busy doing something else apparently.