Fiscal cliff: Are we going over?

[badger]

I am reminded of that classic Price is Right game:

DSAeyAV85UM

So... does the cliffhanger fall off the cliff, or will we see a dealio by the Jan. 1 deadline?

[badger]

Another gameshow comparison:
H9CQscwXBt0

[SanJoaquinSooner]

If we do, it won't be a free fall, but attached to a safety line.

[badger]

If we do, it won't be a free fall, but attached to a safety line.
I hope so. Much like there was worry that they'd be opening the California prison gates to flood family neighborhood streets after the Supreme Court ruled their overcrowding was unconstitutional, going over the fiscal cliff will hopefully be a painless procedure toward a speedy resolution in the face of angry voters.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

The voting is over. Free for all, but all will pay. Republicans, of course, are the culprits, but drat, taxes will rise...SURPRISE

[soonercruiser]

The real cliff was the 2012 Presidential election.
So, we are over the cliff, culturally speaking!
:02.47-tranquillity:

[StoopTroup]

The Country is screwed. The Cliff is near.

[hawaii 5-0]

The voting is over. Free for all, but all will pay. Republicans, of course, are the culprits, but drat, taxes will rise...SURPRISE



Grover and his Pledge is the culprit.

5-0

[Turd_Ferguson]

Grover and his Pledge is the culprit.

5-0

Like you'd ****'n know...

[pphilfran]

Grover and his Pledge is the culprit.

5-0

No...the Pledge was in reaction to overwhelming spending and efforts to raise taxes to fund the spending...

The true culprit lies elsewhere...

[Sooner5030]

gawd I hope so......at least then a portion of the herd can see what it actually feels like to pay for so much intervention. If only we could have a flat tax so a larger % of the herd could feel the pain we might not have so much intervention in the first place.

[badger]

The Country is screwed. The Cliff is near.
If I were having a new year's baby, I would name him Cliff.

[StoopTroup]

http://cache.thephoenix.com/i/OldBlogs/SlopCulture/story.scotus.cheers.cliff.jpg

[Midtowner]

gawd I hope so......at least then a portion of the herd can see what it actually feels like to pay for so much intervention. If only we could have a flat tax so a larger % of the herd could feel the pain we might not have so much intervention in the first place.

Flat tax is a pipe dream.

Causing pain to the poor shouldn't be the aim of the tax code.

If we go over the cliff, the Dems simply float a bill restoring everything to status quo, maybe some spending cuts, with whatever tax plan THEY want and it passes. The 'pubs don't break their pledge, the Dems get everything they want, the nation collectively rolls its eyes and groans.

[nutinbutdust]

fiscal cliff- this is not my work but it is brilliant in its simplicity
US TAX revenue - 2,170,000,000,000
Federal budget - 3,820,000,000,000
new annual debt -1,650,000,000,000
national debt - 16,000,000,000,000
pres Obama budget cuts - 38,500,000,000
let's now subtract 8 zeros and pretend it is a regular household budget
annual income $21,700
money the family spent $38,200
New debt on credit card $16,500
outstanding credit card debt -$160,000
total budget cuts so far $38.50

[BigTip]

fiscal cliff- this is not my work but it is brilliant in its simplicity
US TAX revenue - 2,170,000,000,000
Federal budget - 3,820,000,000,000
new annual debt -1,650,000,000,000
national debt - 16,000,000,000,000
pres Obama budget cuts - 38,500,000,000
let's now subtract 8 zeros and pretend it is a regular household budget
annual income $21,700
money the family spent $38,200
New debt on credit card $16,500
outstanding credit card debt -$160,000
total budget cuts so far $38.50

I saw this awhile back. I checked the figures myself. It is true.
I have shared this with lots of people. It illustrates so well how screwed we are.
Fiscal cliff? Yes, for sure. Maybe not next week, but it will come. There simply is no other path to prevent it.

[cleller]

fiscal cliff- this is not my work but it is brilliant in its simplicity
US TAX revenue - 2,170,000,000,000
Federal budget - 3,820,000,000,000
new annual debt -1,650,000,000,000
national debt - 16,000,000,000,000
pres Obama budget cuts - 38,500,000,000
let's now subtract 8 zeros and pretend it is a regular household budget
annual income $21,700
money the family spent $38,200
New debt on credit card $16,500
outstanding credit card debt -$160,000
total budget cuts so far $38.50

Brilliant plan. Lets just spend some more, so when we get around to cutting something it will even look more insignificant.

[soonercruiser]

If I were having a new year's baby, I would name him Cliff.

Then I will pray that you never use the "hanger".

[soonercruiser]

Flat tax is a pipe dream.

Causing pain to the poor shouldn't be the aim of the tax code.
If we go over the cliff, the Dems simply float a bill restoring everything to status quo, maybe some spending cuts, with whatever tax plan THEY want and it passes. The 'pubs don't break their pledge, the Dems get everything they want, the nation collectively rolls its eyes and groans.

Redistribution of wealth should never be the aim of the tax code!

[FaninAma]

If we don't then we can safely assume that we will never get the deficit under control. The finanacial pain associated with going over the cliff is miniscule compared to the pain of having our currency go to zero or having the government default on its debt.

If we don't go over the cliff you should consider increasing the amount of commodity based investments in your portfolio. If we do go over the cliff wait until the inital drop in prices is over then consider adding commodities because you know the politicians will over-react with monetary stiumulus.

Plus the full inflationary effects of QE3 will not be felt until at least March after which the effects of QE4 will start to be felt in June of 2013.

[diverdog]

No...the Pledge was in reaction to overwhelming spending and efforts to raise taxes to fund the spending...

The true culprit lies elsewhere...

Phil, I am not sure that is right. Things were pretty good when he went on this witch hunt. He is part of the starve the beast crowd.

[soonercruiser]

If we don't then we can safely assume that we will never get the deficit under control. The finanacial pain associated with going over the cliff is miniscule compared to the pain of having our currency go to zero or having the government default on its debt.

If we don't go over the cliff you should consider increasing the amount of commodity based investments in your portfolio. If we do go over the cliff wait until the inital drop in prices is over then consider adding commodities because you know the politicians will over-react with monetary stiumulus.

Plus the full inflationary effects of QE3 will not be felt until at least March after which the effects of QE4 will start to be felt in June of 2013.

I am "all in" to the commodities market!
Milk, eggs, bread, veggies, fruit, and beer of course!
:panda:

[cleller]

I ran across an article this morning, which analyzes the cliff issue using "game theory". For years many smart people have pondered game theory as it relates to risk and life. Its always been interesting to me, but is pretty deep, and hard to keep up with at times.

This article is based on a theory from John Forbes Nash, of A Beautiful Mind fame, and seems to say that Obama has already won the game, and the Repubs now have only the option of choosing between the better of two losing positions. This is from Seeking Alpha, a web service of stock market watchers, not always right, mostly opinions, but often interesting.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1087081-approaching-the-fiscal-cliff-as-a-nash-equilibrium?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

[BigTip]

If we don't go over the cliff you should consider increasing the amount of commodity based investments in your portfolio. .

I am wondering why gold and silver are not shooting up.

[cleller]

I am wondering why gold and silver are not shooting up.

I've read that a slowing of demand in India is keeping a lid on gold. Apparently gold demand (for jewelry, etc) has been steadily weakening in the US and Europe for several years, while demand in India and Asia has risen.

I guess at some level gold prices are still influenced by people who actually buy the gold, instead of just speculation.

[Sooner5030]

I am wondering why gold and silver are not shooting up.

The possibility that most fiat based countries will try to inflate their problems away has already been priced in. Now Gold & Silver are tied to the economy......with fears of slow downs and deflationary pressures gold and silver have dropped.

I own physical bars with assay cards (the little credit suise ones) but I don't recommend it to anyone that wants to make money. Buy gold only if you want to hoard it and pass it on to your kids...or if you think we may experience an event like Russia 97 or Argentina 2001-03.

The russians that converted their rubles to gold in 96 and then back to rubles in 99 made out ok. Everyone else pretty much lost their life savings if it was in rubles in some bank or under the mattress.

[BigTip]

I guess at some level gold prices are still influenced by people who actually buy the gold, instead of just speculation.

Arghhh! NOooooo! Fear and speculation should drive the gold market!!

[BigTip]

The possibility that most fiat based countries will try to inflate their problems away has already been priced in. Now Gold & Silver are tied to the economy......with fears of slow downs and deflationary pressures gold and silver have dropped.

I own physical bars with assay cards (the little credit suise ones) but I don't recommend it to anyone that wants to make money. Buy gold only if you want to hoard it and pass it on to your kids....


I'm not sure about that. It is up 96% over the last five years. Historically, uncertain times, drives the prices up. I just feel like there is a damn about to burst on it. Sure it's gambling to buy it physically, but the pay-off could be huge. There is also the barter in the apocalypse aspect to it. Granted, a small part.

But that is a good point that gold is actually used for things. If the demand is down, which makes sense in these hard economic times, then the price will stay down.

[FaninAma]

At this point I would look at broader based commodity funds especially those that deal in agricultural prodcts and staples. I lookfor gold and silver to start going up sometime between April and August of 2013....when the Fed QE effects really kick in..

[diverdog]

I'm not sure about that. It is up 96% over the last five years. Historically, uncertain times, drives the prices up. I just feel like there is a damn about to burst on it. Sure it's gambling to buy it physically, but the pay-off could be huge. There is also the barter in the apocalypse aspect to it. Granted, a small part.

But that is a good point that gold is actually used for things. If the demand is down, which makes sense in these hard economic times, then the price will stay down.

i barter with booze and cigs. :)

[badger]

Did anyone else's gas prices fall off its own cliff today?

It was near $3 most of last week. This morning it was down to $2.83 in Tulsa. Hmmm...

[Turd_Ferguson]

Did anyone else's gas prices fall off its own cliff today?

It was near $3 most of last week. This morning it was down to $2.83 in Tulsa. Hmmm...

The oil company's just found out that oil is produced from the earths core...not dead animals.

[KABOOKIE]

The oil company's just found out that oil is produced from the earths core...not dead animals.

What's obammer's plan to drill to the core and how long will the supply last?

[okie52]

What's obammer's plan to drill to the core and how long will the supply last?

Obama declared it a National Park and banned all drilling.

[pphilfran]

At this point I would look at broader based commodity funds especially those that deal in agricultural prodcts and staples. I lookfor gold and silver to start going up sometime between April and August of 2013....when the Fed QE effects really kick in..

It might happen but I don't see it....

The world economy is still projected to be in the tank next year so inflation should be tame...the ME seems to be toning down slightly (could explode again) and that should help keep the end of the world people pacified...everybody and their dog is already into gold up to their eyebrows so I don't think there is much support left to hold up the current prices...

My guess is that gold will be lower come August...but I wouldn't bet on it... :)

[pphilfran]

Obama declared it a National Park and banned all drilling.

lol

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Obama says the negotiating package includes contination of the welfare program that benefits me and my family, the tuition tax credit.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

The Dow is falling as Obama speaks.

[badger]

Yeah... they cut into programming here in Tulsa in order to announce... no deal. Gag. The TV stations must have heard their ratings falling along with Dow because they're back to soap operas (I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere)

[StoopTroup]

There will be a deal.

What I'm surprised about is there weren't any mass suicides at the Mayan Temples back on the 21st. I really thought they would go Y2K down there.

[okiewaker]

I'll admit,,,,haven't been watching, reading, or listening to anything political since Nov 8th. I'm getting all the latest right here. Fiscal cliff still the talk of the political world. Geez,,,I ain't missed nothing then.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

gird, brace, protect, defend,

[soonercruiser]

So the as*hole-in-chief holds a supposed WH press conference at 1:40 E time.
Turns out it's a pep rally for him - staged event only; room fulll of cheering fans; and he spends most of the time insulting Congressional Republicans!

The only possible reason for is that he wants to enrage Repugs enough to vote down the agreement in the House, so that we actually do go over the fiscal cliff!
What a jacka**!

[badger]

Well I think we're going to go over, but just barely. House is now seeming to lean toward voting on Tuesday, since it's a federal holiday anyway with markets closed, so no economic fallout if they wait a day, right?

Plus, the Senate/Obama seems to be dragging their feet on a vote on their end, in order to leave the House with less time to vote.

We're going over, folks. Count on it. :(

[cleller]

Well, maybe there is going to be a deal after all. Taxes going up on couples over $450k:

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-fiscal-cliff-deal-emerging-172515776--finance.html

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

it's what the D's want, and they get their way, as usual. Of course, it will be blamed on the republicans. Moving right(Left) along.

[cleller]

Whatever happens with the deal, I selfishly hope it doesn't disappoint Wall Street too much. The could be the last legs of a shaky bull market before the US slides into its Southern Europe phase.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

Whatever happens with the deal, I selfishly hope it doesn't disappoint Wall Street too much. The could be the last legs of a shaky bull market before the US slides into its Southern Europe phase.a little bit of economic activity is inevitable. People try to keep going, regardless of the roadblocks. During the FDR years, after each election there was a little bit of activity uptick, for a little while, until the hard reality once again settled in.

At least this time there's no Dust Bowl.

[StoopTroup]

The Country is screwed. The Cliff is near.

I called it.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Yes, we are going over the cliff. But the talking heads are saying it will be with a soft landing.

[StoopTroup]

Yes, we are going over the cliff. But the talking heads are saying it will be with a soft landing.

I'd say they are just being hopeful.

We now will spend a week dissecting just what has happened and what kind of impact this will have in the next elections.

[soonercruiser]

We are merely putting off the inevitable collapse....it's coming!

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Well, you slackers on unemployment get another year.

And the payroll tax for social security goes back up to 6.2% where it belongs if we want to continue sending checks to the old folks.

[SCOUT]

Well, you slackers on unemployment get another year.
.

I know you say this in half jest, but what is a fair amount of time for unemployment?

[okie52]

Well, you slackers on unemployment get another year.

And the payroll tax for social security goes back up to 6.2% where it belongs if we want to continue sending checks to the old folks.

The old folks already paid....didn't you get the memo?

[SanJoaquinSooner]

The old folks already paid....didn't you get the memo?

Well, I guess you and Harry Reid think that Social Security is actuarily sound.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I know you say this in half jest, but what is a fair amount of time for unemployment?

I have a friend who was a new teacher that got a pink slip after two years due to state budget cuts. She stayed on unemployment for a full year because she couldn't find another teaching job. She didn't try to find any other type of employment. Had unemployment not lasted as long, I'm confident she would have found some other type of employment in the interim.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

The Senate overwhelmingly approved the deal, 89 to 8, in a vote just before 2am ET on New Year's Day. The House of Representatives is expected to vote or take up the deal when it meets on New Year's Day

[SanJoaquinSooner]

My welfare programs survive another day. The college tuition tax credit is extended. And my mother-in-law's survivor's benefit social security checks won't be cut. Thank you rich people.*




* assuming House also passes it.

[pphilfran]

Losers!

We wait till the last minute, and like I said, a cobbled together, half asses plan is put into place...

Payroll taxes going back up - everyone gets an increase
Taxes raised on singles over 400k - couples over 450k
Estate tax up to 40% over 5 mill
Cap gains up to 20%
Extend unemployment by a year
Plus the Medicare doc fix, AMT, renewable energy tax credit


What was not done...
Nothing on the spending limit
Nothing on spending decreases - delays that for 2 months - I want to get this straight...they wait till the last minute to work on the plan...and now decide it will take two months to figure out the spending cuts to make...half of which are supposed to come from the military...

Losers!

[diverdog]

Losers!

We wait till the last minute, and like I said, a cobbled together, half asses plan is put into place...

Payroll taxes going back up - everyone gets an increase
Taxes raised on singles over 400k - couples over 450k
Estate tax up to 40% over 5 mill
Cap gains up to 20%
Extend unemployment by a year
Plus the Medicare doc fix, AMT, renewable energy tax credit


What was not done...
Nothing on the spending limit
Nothing on spending decreases - delays that for 2 months - I want to get this straight...they wait till the last minute to work on the plan...and now decide it will take two months to figure out the spending cuts to make...half of which are supposed to come from the military...

Losers!

phil:

The return to the previous rate on payroll taxes will help a lot.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

...the dissenters to the deal in the Senate were Democrats Tom Harkin (Iowa), Thomas R. Carper (Del.) and Michael Bennet (Colo.), and Republicans Marco Rubio (Floriday), Chuck Grassley (Iowa), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Richard Shelby (Ala.).


Rubio can't be labeled a tax raiser if he has 2016 Presidential ambitions. Innersting that 3 donks voted no.

[badger]

Innersting that 3 donks voted no.

They don't want labels either. There's a few things that Dems don't want to be tagged with, such as the fact that they promised $250K and over tax hikes, but only got $400K-$450K, plus, the estate tax didn't get lowered below $5 mil as they had hoped, perhaps promised.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I don't consider the payroll tax thing an increase. It's been 6.2% for a long time. We just got a recessionary break for 2 years and it expired.

[diverdog]

...the dissenters to the deal in the Senate were Democrats Tom Harkin (Iowa), Thomas R. Carper (Del.) and Michael Bennet (Colo.), and Republicans Marco Rubio (Floriday), Chuck Grassley (Iowa), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Richard Shelby (Ala.).


Rubio can't be labeled a tax raiser if he has 2016 Presidential ambitions. Innersting that 3 donks voted no.

I know Senator Carper and I will be curious to see why he voted the way he did. As our Governor he did a good job and he is a moderate. This one has me scratching my head. His LA is in my Rotary club I will ask her.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

They don't want labels either. There's a few things that Dems don't want to be tagged with, such as the fact that they promised $250K and over tax hikes, but only got $400K-$450K, plus, the estate tax didn't get lowered below $5 mil as they had hoped, perhaps promised.


I can't conceive of any voter saying, "that damned Harkin didn't keep his promise to raise taxes on those making 250k. I'll be damned if I ever support him again."



However, pubs voters are pissed:


JohnCornyn✔
@JohnCornyn 31 Dec 12

I voted for this bill because it prevents a huge tax increase on 99% of all Texans and Americans. Nonetheless, I... fb.me/2dg9dci6o




Barb@BarbofPA

@JohnCornyn BULL. You voted 4 the bill out of fear and the fact the GOP is the party of wimps. 2014/2016 BE GONE!









John Modisett@thebighoot

@JohnCornyn RINO





e Morton@Cuppy1

@JohnCornyn shame on you!




Roger Freeman@JRoger777

@JohnCornyn Until you actually try to stop the spending, your criticism of the dems rings hollow. You caved & we get to pay for it. RINO







John Alan@JohnAlan6

@JohnCornyn bull**** john. u guys only have leverage ev yr or 2, so then you promptly bend over n grab ur ankles. ur just another gop wuss






Anne M.@Basenjimomma

@2LiveinLiberty @JohnCornyn You caved - am done with you and your kind...!!!







Jeff@Oc1013

I can't wait to help campaign against @JohnCornyn voted with 0bama to "save" us. Bull****

[FirstandGoal]

I have a friend who was a new teacher that got a pink slip after two years due to state budget cuts. She stayed on unemployment for a full year because she couldn't find another teaching job. She didn't try to find any other type of employment. Had unemployment not lasted as long, I'm confident she would have found some other type of employment in the interim.


While its sad that someone who took the time to go to college and earn a degree loses their job, I have to agree with you on this. I realize that she didn't know ahead of time how long she would be unemployed, but why not take advantage of the time off (and still earning a paycheck of sorts) to go back to school to further your education to ensure that you became more employable later on in your career?

[olevetonahill]

While its sad that someone who took the time to go to college and earn a degree loses their job, I have to agree with you on this. I realize that she didn't know ahead of time how long she would be unemployed, but why not take advantage of the time off (and still earning a paycheck of sorts) to go back to school to further your education to ensure that you became more employable later on in your career?

I dont think you can draw unemployment while attending school,
You have to be able and willing to go to work if a job opens.

[FirstandGoal]

I dont think you can draw unemployment while attending school,
You have to be able and willing to go to work if a job opens.

Oh, well that's kinda silly. But I guess I see the sense in that. Anyway, if I found myself in a position where my degree did not afford me the luxury of keeping a job, I would be trying to fix that ASAP by building on it.

[olevetonahill]

Oh, well that's kinda silly. But I guess I see the sense in that. Anyway, if I found myself in a position where my degree did not afford me the luxury of keeping a job, I would be trying to fix that ASAP by building on it.

Agree on the Improving deal. I can see the point on the UE tho

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I dont think you can draw unemployment while attending school,
You have to be able and willing to go to work if a job opens.

but it is limited to your "field" right? You don't have to be willing to wait tables in a restaurant if you lost a teaching job.

[olevetonahill]

but it is limited to your "field" right? You don't have to be willing to wait tables in a restaurant if you lost a teaching job.

Hellifiknow.

I dont see why a Person who is out of work and has a Family to support would turn down ANYTHING .

[Turd_Ferguson]

but it is limited to your "field" right? You don't have to be willing to wait tables in a restaurant if you lost a teaching job.

I guess it comes down to morals and personal responsibility. If I lost my job in the telecommunication field and couldn't find anything within 30 day's, I'd be doing whatever I had to do. I can guarantee that I would make more than UE would pay me...

[pphilfran]

phil:

The return to the previous rate on payroll taxes will help a lot.

We just sucked 2% of discretionary income from each and every US citizen making less than 110k..add that to the increase in cap gains, income tax increase on those making over 400k, and the additional healthcare taxes...and we just lost a lot of spending in a sluggish economy...if by some miracle they vote in spending cuts in Feb we just increased the probability of a recession in our near future..

And since you approve of the SS tax reverting back I don't want to hear any bitching, whining, complaining, moaning, or groaning about the lower income folks paying more in taxes than the more well off...

[pphilfran]

I don't consider the payroll tax thing an increase. It's been 6.2% for a long time. We just got a recessionary break for 2 years and it expired.

Tell that to the family guy making 50k a year...bet that will make him feel better about losing a grand in discretionary income...

[sappstuf]

Losers!

We wait till the last minute, and like I said, a cobbled together, half asses plan is put into place...

Payroll taxes going back up - everyone gets an increase
Taxes raised on singles over 400k - couples over 450k
Estate tax up to 40% over 5 mill
Cap gains up to 20%
Extend unemployment by a year
Plus the Medicare doc fix, AMT, renewable energy tax credit


What was not done...
Nothing on the spending limit
Nothing on spending decreases - delays that for 2 months - I want to get this straight...they wait till the last minute to work on the plan...and now decide it will take two months to figure out the spending cuts to make...half of which are supposed to come from the military...

Losers!

Obama had Obamcare scored by the CBO without including the Medicare doc fix. So the actual cost just went up significantly...

As expected by anyone with half a brain.

[diverdog]

Tell that to the family guy making 50k a year...bet that will make him feel better about losing a grand in discretionary income...

He will get most of it back.

[StoopTroup]

So the short answer was No...we didn't go over the cliff. Call me surprised. I thought they would all put their jobs on their principles but even Grover Norquist caved and tried to give his friends an out for voting for the Cliff Bill.

[pphilfran]

He will get most of it back.

?