A good read on reasons why the Dems won't control the U.S. House

[badger]

Link (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83298.html)

Cliff's Notes version:

1- Overconfidence. Nancy Pelosi didn't hedge bets on more issues than Ryan's Medicare and overestimated the impact it would have on the senior vote. Instead, Republicans pushed back saying that Obamacare threatened Medicare funds.

2- State redistricting. By having huge state losses in the 2010 midterm (the CENSUS year!), Republicans were able to redistrict state favorably, making at-risk candidates hold seats in easier districts and Democrats, even key leadership ones, face greater challenges (for example, does the name "Dennis Kucinich" sound familiar?)

3- Retirements. Longterm incumbent Democrats in conservative states/districts are leaving office voluntarily (like Oklahoma's own Dan Boren), causing some previously-Democratic seats to be in doubt for Dems.

It looks like Nancy Pelosi will remain a minority leader.

[okie52]

I didn't think the house was in any jeopardy of changing hands.

[rock on sooner]

I didn't think the house was in any jeopardy of changing hands.

Okie, you're right. There was some talk about some of the more strident
Tea Partiers getting tossed, but there'll probably be only two or three. Walsh
in Illinois and Mourdock in IN (I think) are two who have really hurt themselves.
If Obama wins, then I think a lot of the obstructionist TPers will be in trouble in
2014, because I don't think they'll change their ways. Boehner can't control his
caucus worth a dip. If Romney wins then I think the Senate will go to the Pubs
and it'll be smooth sailing for two years for them. If the Pubs are in control and
they do what Romney wants then 2014 will resemble the 2010 election only the
reverse and the Dems will take back the Senate and get really close on the House.
Just my opinion, obviously. But, no matter what happens tomorrow night, this
damned gridlock HAS to go. It's amazing, Congress has 88% unfavorables but
the same people keep getting reelected. Does ANYONE have an explanation for
that?

[okie52]

Okie, you're right. There was some talk about some of the more strident
Tea Partiers getting tossed, but there'll probably be only two or three. Walsh
in Illinois and Mourdock in IN (I think) are two who have really hurt themselves.
If Obama wins, then I think a lot of the obstructionist TPers will be in trouble in
2014, because I don't think they'll change their ways. Boehner can't control his
caucus worth a dip. If Romney wins then I think the Senate will go to the Pubs
and it'll be smooth sailing for two years for them. If the Pubs are in control and
they do what Romney wants then 2014 will resemble the 2010 election only the
reverse and the Dems will take back the Senate and get really close on the House.
Just my opinion, obviously. But, no matter what happens tomorrow night, this
damned gridlock HAS to go. It's amazing, Congress has 88% unfavorables but
the same people keep getting reelected. Does ANYONE have an explanation for
that?



The explanation Rock On is that people think that everyone else's guy sucks but their own. Rep districts are usually pretty tilted to a dem or pub so he/she would really have to suck to lose in a general election (primary maybe).

I'm guessing that if Obama wins then the 2014 mid terms will go about like Clinton's 2nd mid term elections in 1998....a slight shift but nothing major.

[rock on sooner]

Well, I blew it on Mourdock...he's running for the Senate, not the
House, but I still think two or three TPers are gonna get canned.
Your 'splainin' makes sense but it sure points to a LOT of ill informed
voters that keep sending the "boy/girl" back to do the same stuff
repeatedly. Badger's got the right idea...kick every one of the bums
to the curb! Too bad there isn't a way to just hit reset and all the
bums are gone. Give candidates 6 weeks to argue and then let's vote.
They don't make progress then in two years start all over again. It is
too bad that the Constitution can't move that quickly. BUT, if we do
that stuff then we, as a country, are stuck and can't move an inch...
so, ..........what?...........just sayin'...