Quick Review of the Polls

[Skysooner]

Nate Silver 538 blog NY Times - Sampling of many polls. Not a poll itself. Prediction Obama win, Senate Majority Democrats

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Rasmussen - Direct polling. Presidential Tossup with Obama holding more "safe" electoral votes 237 to 206. Election could go either way.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

Fox News - Could find 3 polls on here all with Obama having varying degrees of "safe" votes and ahead in all, but the remaining more than make up the difference. Couldn't find a direct projection so conclusion is tossup. Blog articles predicting Romney win

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-presidential-race

CNN - Mirrors Rasmussen in Obama 237 safe to Romney 206 safe. No prediction

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

No big surprise here. Romney basically needs Florida, Virginia and Ohio absolutely to avoid sweating out the other battleground states. With all of the polls within 3% and most 2% or tossup either way, this is going to be an interesting night.

Toss-up states are Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.

My conclusion at this point. It is going to be a long night and could go either way. Again no big surprise.

[East Coast Bias]

What is interesting to me is that this whole election comes down to seven states. For all the bluster here from the Okie's, they don't count in this . Nothing could take them out of the Romney column, just like nothing takes California from Obama. Oh sure every vote counts, yada, yada, yada, but the swing states will decide this. Here in New Hampshire(only 4 electoral votes) they are out in force and it is getting old. Our phone has rang every 15 minutes for the last 4 days.Now the organizers are using their cell phones to try and defeat caller ID.

[olevetonahill]

I saw ONE Pole that had Romney leading with 87 % of the Vote

[LiveLaughLove]

I tend to look at where they are campaigning to get a gauge on what the internals are showing.

In recent days Obama's surrogates are spending time in places like Minnesota, a supposedly safe state.

There are state polls showing Romney leading or tied in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

If those state polls are true, then the majority of the so called battleground states are going to Romney.

The momentum is certainly in Romney's favor. He is going before crowds of 30k, Obama 3k. Stevie Wonder gave a concert for Obama and couple of hundred showed up in Ohio.

Lastly, the independents that haven't decided even at this late date, will go larger to the challenger. So those "tied" states are in reality leaning Romney on election day.

Romney will win barring any shenanigans. He could win very large, but I think he wins as I have said before 53-47% (give or take 1-1 1/2% to "other"), and somewhere in the 285-300 EV range.

[hawaii 5-0]

I saw ONE Pole that had Romney leading with 87 % of the Vote


I think that was the telephone pole next to your house.

Musta been a varmit running around that was for Obama.

5-0

[East Coast Bias]

There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here, it will be fun to see what the tone is on Wednesday....

[MamaMia]

I'll bet my precinct is probably even more republican than most of the super republican precincts in the whole state. Last time I voted I couldn't spot one person going in, voting or coming out that I thought would vote democratic. We always have a high voter turnout.

[Skysooner]

I'll bet my precinct is probably even more republican than most of the super republican precincts in the whole state. Last time I voted I couldn't spot one person going in, voting or coming out that I thought would vote democratic. We always have a high voter turnout.

What is funny is that there are zero Obama signs within miles of my home. I did vote for Romney, but the Democratic pollsters are coming by the house. There are a bunch of registered Democrats in this neighborhood that are going Obama, but they aren't advertising it. Even this former Bronco DL who lives down the street doesn't have an Obama sign up, but he is very pro Obama.

[Soonerjeepman]

Sky...not being racist, but is the former DL black? I simply ask because it really seems most AA voted for obama because he was black. Didn't know **** about his philosophy. Course these are inner city folks who are not the most educated in this area.

In fact I would venture to guess most AA voted for obama because of his skin color.

[Skysooner]

He is AA yes and a really big dude. Smart too. Runs a number of successful businesses. We haven't really discussed how he became Democrat.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Nate Silver says 80% chance of an Obama victory given the small lead he has in the polls this final weekend.

I suspect though, that 3% of those who support Obama in polling situations are closet Romney voters this time around. They may not even know they are going to vote for Romney until they actually do it. I think the margin will be less than an epsilon.

[Soonerjeepman]

Sky...lol figured he was big...it's funny but the teachers I teach with (the AA ones) are all over obama as well. Prob more because of the dems "seem to support education" more than pubs. I do know several though are really high on him because he is "one of them".

I don't understand because as a teacher I don't give grades..students earn them, but yet what I get from obama is taking from those who earn and give to those who don't. But again, that is my personal vision.

[Turd_Ferguson]

Obama won because he's black. He'll probably win again because he's black and the brothers, sisters and white apologist cant have the first black president only serve one term. Anybody that doesn't admit this is either disingenuous or ****'n stupid.

[Soonerjeepman]

yup

guess all us "racist" cause we didn't vote for a black guy (well 1/2 black) just suck..

[rock on sooner]

Obama won because he's black. He'll probably win again because he's black and the brothers, sisters and white apologist cant have the first black president only serve one term. Anybody that doesn't admit this is either disingenuous or ****'n stupid.

TF, to quote your famous bud, "There you go again." Really, dude, you
say some really strange things, as in above, and other times make a
sound argument on your point. What's up with that?

[Soonerjeepman]

ok RS...how many black have you discussed obama with? I'd venture to guess 90% of the blacks that voted for him did BECAUSE he was black. 90% of the folks I deal with that are black couldn't stop talking about having one of their own in the office.

[rock on sooner]

ok RS...how many black have you discussed obama with? I'd venture to guess 90% of the blacks that voted for him did BECAUSE he was black. 90% of the folks I deal with that are black couldn't stop talking about having one of their own in the office.

Funny you should bring that up, the young woman that was at my home
in a 99% white neighborhood was working for Obama because he talked
about education, green energy, strong foreign affairs action, rescuing the
auto industry and, her words, most importantly, his health care efforts.
BTW, she was African American and this was her third presidential campaign.
I have discussed politics with MANY folks, state Democratic convention, door
knockers, you name it and the ONLY people who ever bring up the race issue
are lily white and it is usually about the fact that the US is becoming more
diverse.

You may be right about the 90% figure, couldn't say but then I don't think
Mission, KS is any more colored than IA.

[SoonerStormchaser]

I'm thinking that Romney wins the popular, but Obama squeaks the Electoral...and there will be lots of teeth gnashing on Facebook by both sides.

[rock on sooner]

I'm thinking that Romney wins the popular, but Obama squeaks the Electoral...and there will be lots of teeth gnashing on Facebook by both sides.

I think you're half right. Obama squeaks both the popular and the
electoral. I still maintain that the electoral needs to go away.

[Skysooner]

Obama won because he's black. He'll probably win again because he's black and the brothers, sisters and white apologist cant have the first black president only serve one term. Anybody that doesn't admit this is either disingenuous or ****'n stupid.

This is so laughably a troll type comment.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Read unskewed polls, R 52, The Socialist 47! Nate Silver is a bull**** hacker...

[landrun]

It looks pretty close to me.

And I don't recall any election where both sides are boldly claiming they're going to win.
Axelrod says he'll shave his stach if Obama loses Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Dick Morris is predicting a Romney 'land slide' win. Silver (who was wrong about the 2010 mid terms from what I've heard but became a legend in 2008) is saying Obama is a lock to win.

The prediction markets, which have been very accurate, are pointing to an Obama win.
The Colorado University model which has never been wrong, is predicting an Romney win.

And of course, the Redskins lost the final home game before the election - which has also been pretty accurate in predicting the winner/loser of the election - points to a Romney win (and of course is the most scientific of them all. :) )

It will be interesting on Tuesday night for sure.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

This is so laughably a troll type comment.


Its the truth, the ****in libs vote socialist because of white angst. I have none. They elected their bull****ter, "the man" is done for...

[TheHumanAlphabet]

I think you're half right. Obama squeaks both the popular and the
electoral. I still maintain that the electoral needs to go away.

You as usual are wrong.. The electoral college is what holds this country as great. Might as well dissolve the republic if you do away with the EC...

[landrun]

Read unskewed polls, R 52, The Socialist 47! Nate Silver is a bull**** hacker...

This guy gives us conservatives a bad name IMO.

I found a link where he predicted a McCain win using his 'unskewed' model in 2008. He's gained enough attention this year, that in 2016, if Repubs lose, he won't have a following at all.
Not many people know about his 2008 prediction. In 2016 we'll all remember this year and will just shake our head at him.

But, I admit, if Repubs win, he'll be the next election cycle's flash-in-the-pan Nate Silver and will be considered a guru.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

I happen to like their ,
model. I think it at least reduces the poll bias for the dems. I am not saying it isexactly accurate, but it does jibe with the trend in the biased MSM polls.

[Skysooner]

Its the truth, the ****in libs vote socialist because of white angst. I have none. They elected their bull****ter, "the man" is done for...

Actually we were voting against the continuation of Bush's policies. I'm not a white apologist either. I guess things must be nice up there in the clear rarefied air that you sit in right now /sarcasm. To say that it was about race is both ludicrous and trying to rewrite history. 2008 is not 2012.

[SCOUT]

I have discussed politics with MANY folks, state Democratic convention, door
knockers, you name it and the ONLY people who ever bring up the race issue
are lily white and it is usually about the fact that the US is becoming more
diverse.

You may be right about the 90% figure, couldn't say but then I don't think
Mission, KS is any more colored than IA.

This is sarcasm right?

[SouthCarolinaSooner]

Its the truth, the ****in libs vote socialist because of white angst. I have none. They elected their bull****ter, "the man" is done for...
Do you have any data to back that up?

[LiveLaughLove]

This guy gives us conservatives a bad name IMO.

I found a link where he predicted a McCain win using his 'unskewed' model in 2008. He's gained enough attention this year, that in 2016, if Repubs lose, he won't have a following at all.
Not many people know about his 2008 prediction. In 2016 we'll all remember this year and will just shake our head at him.

But, I admit, if Repubs win, he'll be the next election cycle's flash-in-the-pan Nate Silver and will be considered a guru.

Are you talking about Nate silver?

He's a libs lib. How does he give us a bad name?

I'm confused.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

You really believe there are white people thinking, "I need to vote for Obama, to make him the first Black man to serve a second term.... can't have a Black man serve just one term"? Did we keep John Blake as head coach for 8 years?

[landrun]

Are you talking about Nate silver?

He's a libs lib. How does he give us a bad name?

I'm confused.

No. I'm talking about the unskewedpolls.com dude.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

You really believe there are white people thinking, "I need to vote for Obama, to make him the first Black man to serve a second term.... can't have a Black man serve just one term"? Did we keep John Blake as head coach for 8 years?
There are plenty of libs that are saying that. I.e., authors from Salon, NYT, Washington Post, and many other places.

[Skysooner]

There are plenty of libs that are saying that. I.e., authors from Salon, NYT, Washington Post, and many other places.

And you believe all of that? If this political cycle has taught us anything, it is that the media isn't to be trusted. The vast majority of my family and my wife's extended family all voted for Obama in the last cycle. We are all Oklahomans and were all church-goers (majority still are). None of us talked during the election cycle about our choices. I actually presumed they would be upset with my wife and I for voting Obama. As it turns out we all voted for Obama and that was because we were sick to death of Bush and the wars. This time it was a mixed result with the majority still voting for Obama, but I switched over to Romney simply due to the energy issue. I like my anecdotal evidence better than the media. I know it to be true and not some made up bs simply to sell newspapers/magazines/blogs etc.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Lehman Bros. collapse did in any chances that McCain had in 2008. But Obama was also a pretty inspiring figure in 2008 with a positive message. It was much different than the bitter, angry guy running 4 years later.

[Soonerjeepman]

Funny you should bring that up, the young woman that was at my home
in a 99% white neighborhood was working for Obama because he talked
about education, green energy, strong foreign affairs action, rescuing the
auto industry and, her words, most importantly, his health care efforts.
BTW, she was African American and this was her third presidential campaign.
I have discussed politics with MANY folks, state Democratic convention, door
knockers, you name it and the ONLY people who ever bring up the race issue
are lily white and it is usually about the fact that the US is becoming more
diverse.

You may be right about the 90% figure, couldn't say but then I don't think
Mission, KS is any more colored than IA.

I teach in the inner city, KCK...and yes there are many AA people there. That's great SHE knows what she is talking about as far as voting for the issues SHE believes in...she's part of the 10%. ..and I'm far from "lily white"...I would have voted for JC Watts in a heartbeat.

[SoonerorLater]

There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here, it will be fun to see what the tone is on Wednesday....

The tone on Wednesday will be riots if Romney wins.

[Skysooner]

The tone on Wednesday will be riots if either candidate wins.

FIFY

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I like close elections. Landslides are boring. Plus, landslides give the impression that the voters have given someone a mandate.

[JohnnyMack]

I'll bet my precinct is probably even more republican than most of the super republican precincts in the whole state. Last time I voted I couldn't spot one person going in, voting or coming out that I thought would vote democratic. We always have a high voter turnout.

You mean no black people. Right?

[JohnnyMack]

I'm thinking that Romney wins the popular, but Obama squeaks the Electoral...and there will be lots of teeth gnashing on Facebook by both sides.

Al Gore's Revenge!

I agree with you, even if you are a nincompoop.

[Curly Bill]

You mean no black people. Right?

He meant they looked gainfully employed.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Sky, i don't believe that crap, but there are plenty of white apologists writing that crap. You know indoctrinated by the education system...

I read some of it to get a sense of the delusion that is out there. There is quite a bit of delusion put there...

[Skysooner]

Sky, i don't believe that crap, but there are plenty of white apologists writing that crap. You know indoctrinated by the education system...

I read some of it to get a sense of the delusion that is out there. There is quite a bit of delusion put there...

I just always think about media that they are trying to earn a living to. How do they make more money in this age of declining newspaper and magazine readership? It is about being scandalous. Ed Schultz on the progressive side is a perfect example. There are some good progressive radio hosts that don't toot their own horn, but Ed is one of those trying to make a buck. It is pretty obvious. I don't doubt that you are right about there being plenty of those kinds of media out there.

[BigTip]

Did we keep John Blake as head coach for 8 years?

No, and I have been embarrassed about how racist OU is ever since.




LOL

Great analogy btw

[cleller]

You mean no black people. Right?

Another one trick pony remark. Don't like what someone says? Insinuate they are a racist.

Or do you mean that black people aren't capable of looking like anything but a democrat? Black people can only do what their Dem controllers program them to do? Do you think black people only belong in certain areas, with certain incomes and certain habits?

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Another one trick pony remark. Don't like what someone says? Insinuate they are a racist.

Or do you mean that black people aren't capable of looking like anything but a democrat? Black people can only do what their Dem controllers program them to do? Do you think black people only belong in certain areas, with certain incomes and certain habits?

DON'T FEED THE TROLL!

[cleller]

DON'T FEED THE TROLL!

Good point. You must have raised a few kids. "ignore him, and he'll go away".

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Good point. You must have raised a few kids. "ignore him, and he'll go away".

I'm a troll conservationist. It's for the troll's own good.

[jkjsooner]

I wish I lived in a state that didn't count.

Yesterday I got a Romney robo-call and I swear I could not hang up on it. I was trying to make a call so I kept hanging up, waiting for a while, and every time I picked up the receiver it was talking to me. I swear I even waited 10 seconds...

Annoying.

[jkjsooner]

The thing that gets me is the reporting of the "margin of error." The media does not do a good job of explaining this.

It doesn't have anything to do with how good the poll is. They could be polling people outside of the VFW or a homeless shelter and the reported margin of error wouldn't be impacted and would be statistically correct.

Margin of error assumes that the sample size is truly random (very hard to do in practice) and that the responses are accurate. Simply put it's just saying that it is improbable that a truly random sampling of voters could deviate by more than this much from the actual population.

Not saying they don't put a lot of effort making sure their polling methodologies produce a truly random sampling of voters and produce valid results...

[rock on sooner]

I teach in the inner city, KCK...and yes there are many AA people there. That's great SHE knows what she is talking about as far as voting for the issues SHE believes in...she's part of the 10%. ..and I'm far from "lily white"...I would have voted for JC Watts in a heartbeat.

I stand corrected...KS is 6.1% AA and IA is 3.1%...in the early 70's
I taught at Washington HS in KCK. I was hired out of college by
the district recruiter...one question he asked was if I had any problem
with teaching in the inner city. I said no but was put in Washington
High.(the principal was racist, though) and the school was probably
97-98% white...

[Skysooner]

The thing that gets me is the reporting of the "margin of error." The media does not do a good job of explaining this.

It doesn't have anything to do with how good the poll is. They could be polling people outside of the VFW or a homeless shelter and the reported margin of error wouldn't be impacted and would be statistically correct.

Margin of error assumes that the sample size is truly random (very hard to do in practice) and that the responses are accurate. Simply put it's just saying that it is improbable that a truly random sampling of voters could deviate by more than this much from the actual population.

Not saying they don't put a lot of effort making sure their polling methodologies produce a truly random sampling of voters and produce valid results...

They also mention nothing about confidence intervals which define this margin of error.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

The markets are up today, which is a good sign for Romney -- probably traders getting rumors of good exit poll numbers for Romney.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

The markets are up today, which is a good sign for Romney -- probably traders getting rumors of good exit poll numbers for Romney.

I would tend to watch the bond market instead of the stock market. It's interesting to see a late day drop in bond prices. Perhaps there's a fear that Romney may pull the upset and QE may no longer be going on indefinitely.