landrun
10/29/2012, 08:42 PM
I've heard the complaining about polls over sampling dems/repubs to get their numbers.
I'm not convinced who's right and haven't figured out how they derive that variable.
But I read where Rasmussen's party identification has been spot on in recent elections.
So, I've put together a table using both Rasmussen and Gallup's party ids to date to try to determine what a likely turn out model will be.
I've listed the year, the percentage of the voters who were dem and republican.
Then I list this years third. Finally I list 2010 - just to make a point.
In short, if the voters are consistent like they've been over the last few election cycles, this could be huge for Republicans. So huge, it is hard to believe really.
Notice this, In 2004 Repubs won - with an average of 1% more Dems than Repub - 43.5-42.5
Dems won BIG in 2008 with over an 9 percent advantage 47 dems and 37.5 repubs
This year, for maybe the first time in my life (I haven't finished looking but my perception is that this is true) the Repubs actually have the advantage by 2.5 points. 40 to 42.5 for the repubs.
How big might this be? In 2010 the Dems had a 2.5 margin and the Repub gains were historic.
How big could it be when more Americans actually identify themselves as repubs rather than dems??
In any case, this difference looks better for Repubs than any election in a long while.
<pre>
gallup ras avg
d r d r d r Difference
2004 48 48 39 37 43.5 42.5 1
2008 54 42 40 33 47 37.5 9.5
2012 46 49 34 36 40 42.5 -2.5
2010 31 29 36 33 33.5 31 2.5
</pre>
Here's the sites where I got my data...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125450/party-affiliation-despite-gop-gains-states-remain-blue.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/145463/democratic-party-drops-2010-tying-year-low.aspx
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
I'm not convinced who's right and haven't figured out how they derive that variable.
But I read where Rasmussen's party identification has been spot on in recent elections.
So, I've put together a table using both Rasmussen and Gallup's party ids to date to try to determine what a likely turn out model will be.
I've listed the year, the percentage of the voters who were dem and republican.
Then I list this years third. Finally I list 2010 - just to make a point.
In short, if the voters are consistent like they've been over the last few election cycles, this could be huge for Republicans. So huge, it is hard to believe really.
Notice this, In 2004 Repubs won - with an average of 1% more Dems than Repub - 43.5-42.5
Dems won BIG in 2008 with over an 9 percent advantage 47 dems and 37.5 repubs
This year, for maybe the first time in my life (I haven't finished looking but my perception is that this is true) the Repubs actually have the advantage by 2.5 points. 40 to 42.5 for the repubs.
How big might this be? In 2010 the Dems had a 2.5 margin and the Repub gains were historic.
How big could it be when more Americans actually identify themselves as repubs rather than dems??
In any case, this difference looks better for Repubs than any election in a long while.
<pre>
gallup ras avg
d r d r d r Difference
2004 48 48 39 37 43.5 42.5 1
2008 54 42 40 33 47 37.5 9.5
2012 46 49 34 36 40 42.5 -2.5
2010 31 29 36 33 33.5 31 2.5
</pre>
Here's the sites where I got my data...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125450/party-affiliation-despite-gop-gains-states-remain-blue.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/145463/democratic-party-drops-2010-tying-year-low.aspx
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation