Pennsylvania - Did Romney just take the lead!???

[landrun]

If this holds up, Ohio won't even matter.

Romney has a 49-45% lead in Penn among likely voters according to Susquehanna Polling and Research's latest poll.

This firm has been a part of RCP's poll of polls on the state for a while now and Susquehanna boasts a 98% accuracy rate.

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=SusquehannaPR&original_referer=http://www.susquehannapolling.com/

It is an outlier in the polls so far. But Romney has been closing the gap and for the first time in several election cycles, the state is up for grabs.

[olevetonahill]

Win, lose or draw. Ima be happy than Switzer when this carp is all over
Sick of of all the blather from both sides

[landrun]

More from http://battlegroundwatch.com/



Romney +4 in Pennsylvania — Susquehanna (confirmed)

October 18, 2012 – 4:02 pm


Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45% after his excellent debate performances.

The thing to remember about Susquehanna, on September 23 they published a poll saying Obama was up by only 2-points 47 to 45. Most every pollster had results greatly different than Susquehanna. Even two days prior, the much respected Rasmussen Reports published a poll saying Obama was up 11-points 51 to 39.

Today, EVERY pollster has caught up to where Susquehanna had been for weeks:
•Quinnipiac: Obama +4 (Oct 16)
•Morning Call/Muhlenberg University: Obama +4 (Oct 15)
•Rasmussen: Obama +5 (Oct 10)
•Sienna Research: Obama +3 (Oct 9)

Susquehanna also ran another poll October 8 which confirmed Obama’s 2-point lead

Now Susquehanna says Romney is up 4 …

Thanks to a heads-up from Colvinus in the comment section we see the Washington Examiner has some details:


Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama. It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State. “The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it,” Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner. Romney isn’t spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008. “Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.” Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Update from Guy Benson at Townhall.com:


Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 18, 2012

The party ID in 2008 was D +8 and in 2004 it was D +2. Very fair split relative to the prior elections.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I suspect this is a bad p-hat. The polls have consistently been in favor of Obama by an average of 5 percentage points in PA. To do a big swing suddenly is suspect.

[KantoSooner]

It is suspect but PA is weird. Outside of the Philly area, the state strongly resembles Alabama in attitude...but Philly is a very big portion of the state.

It's like if we had Boston in place of OKC. How would you figure the possible voting outcome?

[hawaii 5-0]

Any Poll that doesn't include Philly is worthless.

6-0

[KantoSooner]

Exactly. It's like two states in one; the question is how to balance them.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

The question is where is the fraud likely to come from...

...a la New Haven CT...

[badger]

I think the economy will get a bump after a Romney win from consumers and business' optimism.

Otherwise, it really doesn't matter who wins, does it?

[olevetonahill]

Yes it does
Mainly in the SCOTUS

[rock on sooner]

Yes it does
Mainly in the SCOTUS

And, by extension, the next 20-25 years...

[olevetonahill]

And, by extension, the next 20-25 years...

Yup
I like the Court pretty much the way it is
Not too Lib, Not to Con.

[badger]

Yeah, I guess so.

I like Republican nominees much better than Democratic ones. Repubs are much more likely to deviate from their assumed political views than Dem ones (which are usually liberal activists on the bench booooo). In fact, I really can't think of any instance where a Dem nominee deviated, but there are many instances of Repub deviation.

[olevetonahill]

Yeah, I guess so.

I like Republican nominees much better than Democratic ones. Repubs are much more likely to deviate from their assumed political views than Dem ones (which are usually liberal activists on the bench booooo). In fact, I really can't think of any instance where a Dem nominee deviated, but there are many instances of Repub deviation.

Kinda Like sayin The Moderates and Con.s are RIGHT thinking folks

[olevetonahill]

Yeah, I guess so.

I like Republican nominees much better than Democratic ones. Repubs are much more likely to deviate from their assumed political views than Dem ones (which are usually liberal activists on the bench booooo). In fact, I really can't think of any instance where a Dem nominee deviated, but there are many instances of Repub deviation.

Kinda Like sayin The Moderates and Con.s are RIGHT thinking folks

[rock on sooner]

Kinda Like sayin The Moderates and Con.s are RIGHT thinking folks

Well, now, could be, mind you, COULD BE, that the Dems have the
courage of their convictions and the Pubs, on occasion, agree.:biggrin:

[olevetonahill]

Well, now, could be, mind you, COULD BE, that the Dems have the
courage of their convictions and the Pubs, on occasion, agree.:biggrin:

Naw,

[LiveLaughLove]

Well, now, could be, mind you, COULD BE, that the Dems have the
courage of their convictions and the Pubs, on occasion, agree.:biggrin:
Dems have always been monolithic in their thinking. They call themselves a big tent party and that's true if you mean racially, but its never been true ideologically.

There are many many more diverse political views in the republican party. That's one reason we tea party folks get upset with it. Too many social moderates for our style.

There are very very few social conservatives in the democrat party.

[MamaMia]

The question is where is the fraud likely to come from...

...a la New Haven CT... Does Acorn have a branch in New Haven? :)



Well, now, could be, mind you, COULD BE, that the Dems have the
courage of their convictions and the Pubs, on occasion, agree.:biggrin:Could be that the Pubs are more willing to compromise.

[badger]

Well, now, could be, mind you, COULD BE, that the Dems have the
courage of their convictions and the Pubs, on occasion, agree.:biggrin:

I'm not talking all Democrats, but the ones they put in judicial roles seem to forget that they represent the law, they don't make the laws. That's what lawmakers are for. Liberal activist judge interpret the laws in a way that nobody else would, or just change the laws to meet their personal beliefs.

Conservative appointments, however, as Chief Justice Roberts recently showed on the Obamacare ruling, are not just going to be rubber stamps for their political party.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Uhhh... New Haven = Bridgeport, sorry for that...


The Connecticut Post reports (http://bit.ly/Qfyjf3 ) that Mayor Bill Finch, a Democrat, promised Rep. Chris Murphy, the Democratic candidate for Senate, that Bridgeport will deliver enough votes for Murphy to win on Election Day. "We may come in a couple days late," Finch added.


Apparently he has a history of vote count fraud from 2010 as well...