electoral college predictor

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Ok bitches, enough yappin about the popular vote. It doesn't ****ing matter, otherwise it would have been President Gore.

What matters are the electoral votes of the swing states. Getting down to the nitty gritty, Romney needs 79 electoral votes out of these 146 from the swing states:

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)


I think he'll take Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia. That gives him 72. Where is it most likely he'll get the other 7?

No doubt, if he takes Ohio he wins the election. But is any other scenario likely, without Ohio?

[Sooner98]

Without Ohio, it gets tough for Romney. You're then looking at needing a Nevada/New Hampshire combo (possible), or taking Wisconsin (less likely). Ohio is still Romney's best bet, and will likely decide the election.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Without Ohio, it gets tough for Romney. You're then looking at needing a Nevada/New Hampshire combo (possible), or taking Wisconsin (less likely). Ohio is still Romney's best bet, and will likely decide the election.

The Nevada unions will make it tough for Romney to carry that state. New Hampshire is in play I think.

[rock on sooner]

SJS, not sure why you think that Romney will carry those states you listed.
VA and IA are both currently in the Obama column, true by close numbers but
this is after the first debate, Romney is up in CO (2 points) FL by 1, NC by 2.
Obama is up by 5-6 points in Ohio (depending on which poll you look at) and
up in Wisconsin by 5. Obama leads in every "home" state of R/R. IF, a big if,
Obama comes back strong Tuesday night then I think you'll see even more of
a shift back to Obama. The third debate is only 6 days after #2.

I don't think Romney can overcome the "Let the auto mfgrs go bankrupt" op-ed
piece he wrote in Ohio and Michigan.

[TitoMorelli]

Just found this at Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider blog - sorry for the length of the c/p:



Latest swing state poll snapshot

8:31 pm October 14, 2012, by Jamie Dupree

One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee.

It is important to note that there are lot of opinions on whether this poll shift is temporary or a more fundamental shift.

I ran into a friend of mine over the weekend who does polling for Democratic candidates and causes - and she was indignant that the polls are simply flat wrong.

Republicans obviously disagree and disagree strongly with that type of assessment.

So, let's take a look at the ten swing states, from largest to smallest.

* Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Two weeks ago, the President held a several point lead in the Real Clear poll average in the Sunshine State; last week that average had dropped to a tie. Now Mitt Romney's edge is about 3%. (This is what we call a "trend.") Every poll taken since the October 3 debate has moved toward Romney as the GOP nominee has led in six of the last seven polls in Florida after the President was tops in 10 straight. The President is not scheduled to campaign in Florida this week.

* Ohio (18) - If Florida is starting to trend towards Romney, maybe we can almost declare that Ohio will (again) be the key state for 2012. Both candidates have spent a lot of time here, as Romney has drawn very large crowds in a series of recent rallies. The big front page story in Saturday's Columbus Dispatch had an interesting first line: "Maybe Vice President Joe Biden stopped the bleeding for the Obama campaign on Thursday, but he did little to stall the momentum Mitt Romney's building in Ohio." The President's average poll lead is at 1.7%; it was almost double that a week ago.

* Michigan (16) - A week ago, I wrote that "my gut tells me if Ohio is close, Michigan can't be double digits right now," as the President's average poll lead was 10%. In a week, that dropped to a lead of 4.4%. While neither candidate is actively advertising in Michigan (according to the Detroit News), a pro-Romney Super PAC is making a big TV ad buy there. Romney has only led in one Michigan poll since August, demonstrating what many feel is an edge for the President that will be difficult for Republicans to erase.

* North Carolina (15) - The post-convention bump in the polls in the Tar Heel State for President Obama has evaporated over the last two weeks, as Romney now leads in the poll average by 3.3%. Republicans also seem to be enjoying an advantage in absentee ballot returns as compared to four years ago. North Carolina has not been on the President's schedule of late, and he won't be there again over the next week; the last trip for Vice President Biden there resulted in his quote that the middle class had been "buried" the last four years.

* Virginia (13) - President Obama is spending three days in Williamsburg, Virginia for his debate prep, one of many visits by both candidates in recent weeks as this state has been a very active battleground. The President's polling advantage in the Old Dominion is almost all gone, as averages have him ahead by just 0.4%, down several points. Romney has led in four of the last six Virginia polls, after 12 straight favored the President. If Romney can win Virginia, Florida & North Carolina, he could win this race without Ohio.

* Wisconsin (10) - The evidence of a polling surge for Romney is certainly obvious in Wisconsin, where the President's leads of 11 and 12 points suddenly dropped to polls showing an edge of two or three points in the last week. The President still has the overall edge in Wisconsin, with the poll average now at 2.3%. Republicans do think they can win here, based on their success this year in defeating the recall effort against Gov. Scott Walker, but Romney has now trailed in 26 of the last 30 polls in the Badger State.

* Colorado (9) - When I was in Colorado for the first Presidential debate, the polling indicators were definitely more in favor of the President, but since then, they have turned around, as this state is now a complete dead heat. If you are thinking about how the candidates can get to 270 Electoral Votes, Colorado could be a big deal for Romney - if you think he has a chance in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, then you add in Colorado and he is only 13 Electoral Votes away from a majority.

* Iowa (6) - I still shake my head at the thought that ten months after the start of this campaign, we are still worried about Iowa and New Hampshire. Last week, the poll averages gave an edge to the President of 3.5% in the Hawkeye State; the only poll in Iowa since the first debate (by Rasmussen) showed the President with a two point edge. The absentee ballots in so far are running about the same rate as four years ago when the Democrats won. Where will President Obama go for his first post-debate rally this week? Iowa. Don't laugh at its corn fields and 6 Electoral Votes - they could be a big deal.

* Nevada (6) - The poll averages still give President Obama the edge here, but it has shrunk in half over the last week, and is now down to 1.6%. Nevada is a state that Republicans thought they could crack in 2012, but it hasn't turned out that way so far. Again, I will point out that the polls in the Silver State have not been good in recent major elections - consider these examples: In 2010, the final poll average forecast a defeat for Sen. Harry Reid by 2.7%. Instead, Reid won by 5.6%, a difference of over 8%. Back in 2008, the polls forecast a 6.5% average win for Barack Obama - instead his margin was 12.5%. In 2004, the average polling edge for President Bush was 6.3%, but he won by only 3.5%. I cannot ignore that kind of error in the polls, so, in my head, I am adding a few percent to Obama's total in each Nevada poll. We'll see if the polls have a better track record in 2012.

* New Hampshire (4) - Three polls over the last week in the Granite State showed a definite move towards Romney, even as the President has maintained a narrow lead in the poll averages of 0.7%. President Obama will be in Manchester later this week, as Democrats hope to keep New Hampshire from being a small island of Red in New England. Just as I remember errant polls in 2004, 2008 & 2010 from Nevada, I also can't get the 2008 Democratic Primary out of my head in New Hampshire - the polls all showed a win for Obama, but he lost to Hillary Clinton. Just something to think about.

A week ago, we wondered if the polls might surge a little for Mitt Romney after the first debate - they did. Now we will see what happens after the second debate this week. An edge for the President could well swing things back his way; another "win" for Romney could reinforce the polling gains of recent days.

Tighten your chin strap for a fun last three weeks.

[pphilfran]

SJS, not sure why you think that Romney will carry those states you listed.
VA and IA are both currently in the Obama column, true by close numbers but
this is after the first debate, Romney is up in CO (2 points) FL by 1, NC by 2.
Obama is up by 5-6 points in Ohio (depending on which poll you look at) and
up in Wisconsin by 5. Obama leads in every "home" state of R/R. IF, a big if,
Obama comes back strong Tuesday night then I think you'll see even more of
a shift back to Obama. The third debate is only 6 days after #2.

I don't think Romney can overcome the "Let the auto mfgrs go bankrupt" op-ed
piece he wrote in Ohio and Michigan.

GM and Chrysler did go bankrupt..and then we sold Chrysler to Fiat...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

SJS, not sure why you think that Romney will carry those states you listed.
VA and IA are both currently in the Obama column, true by close numbers but
this is after the first debate, Romney is up in CO (2 points) FL by 1, NC by 2.
Obama is up by 5-6 points in Ohio (depending on which poll you look at) and
up in Wisconsin by 5. Obama leads in every "home" state of R/R. IF, a big if,
Obama comes back strong Tuesday night then I think you'll see even more of
a shift back to Obama. The third debate is only 6 days after #2.

I don't think Romney can overcome the "Let the auto mfgrs go bankrupt" op-ed
piece he wrote in Ohio and Michigan.


Just conjecture. But they are best considered toss-up states.

Here are the October polls for Virginia:

ARG 10/12 - 10/14 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/11 - 10/11 750 LV 4.0 47 49 Romney +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 981 LV 3.1 47 48 Romney +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/4 - 10/9 1288 LV 3.0 51 46 Obama +5
PPP (D) 10/4 - 10/7 725 LV 3.7 50 47 Obama +3
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 45 48 Romney +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 48 49 Romney +1


here are the October polls for Iowa:

ARG 10/11 - 10/14 600 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/7 - 10/7 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Obama +2

[FaninAma]

So, how much fun will the next 4 years be if Obama wins the electoral college and Romeny wins the popular vote? I will be rooting for the fiscal cliff.

[rock on sooner]

GM and Chrysler did go bankrupt..and then we sold Chrysler to Fiat...

That's quite true. Also true is that both are doing really well now.
Might have something to do with who managed them through the
bankruptcies. Just a thought...

[Skysooner]

About as much fun as Bush's first term...kidding. It is the system we have.

[FaninAma]

About as much fun as Bush's first term...kidding. It is the system we have.

The difference is that it didn't seem that in 2000 that we were so politically divided in terms of visceral dislike for the other side. The country had just gone through a relatively prosperous 8 years where the GOP and Clinton actually worked together on some important issues. Politically I think this is divided asa I have ever seen the country.

[landrun]

I think Florida, Virginia and NC are Romney's.
I even saw one polling firm that said their polling has shown these states belong to Romney and they won't even poll again.

It looks like Pennsylvanian is in play now, within the margin of error. Ohio is close because there are almost no undecided voters left (which would normally break for the challenger)

If Romney does well in the next few debates, winning at least one, I think it's his election to win.

[Skysooner]

The difference is that it didn't seem that in 2000 that we were so politically divided in terms of visceral dislike for the other side. The country had just gone through a relatively prosperous 8 years where the GOP and Clinton actually worked together on some important issues. Politically I think this is divided asa I have ever seen the country.

Agreed, it was very much different in the times. The political divide is depressing. What I see in Colorado is many voting for Romney, but locally they will be voting Democrat (at least this is where I live). It is the social issue thing locally and fiscal thing nationally.

[pphilfran]

That's quite true. Also true is that both are doing really well now.
Might have something to do with who managed them through the
bankruptcies. Just a thought...

I am not very high on GM...year on year they are the worst performer of any auto manufacturer, up 3.4%...Sept 2012 compared to Sept 2011 they were up 1.5% with truck sales (the money makers) down a hefty 12.3%...Ford is also sucking air but didn't take the big truck hit...

Compare GM year on year numbers to:
Total/Truck
GM 3.4%/1.5%
Ford 5.3/6.6
Chrysler (foreign company) 23.9/16.2
Toyota 31.6/21
Honda 25.7/22
Nissan 11.9/21.4
VW 32.3
Mazda 9.5/-3.9
Hyundai 9.5/-3.6
Kia 18.4/-15.1 (sister company to Hyundai)

[pphilfran]

Another tidbit...Kia/Hyundai when combined are within an eyelash of passing Honda as the number 5 best seller in the US...I am guessing that if not next year then they will pass Honda in 2014...the Hyundai Motor Group is the fourth largest auto manufacturer in the world behind Toyota, GM, and VW...most people are stunned by that fact...
2012 ytd

Honda 1,066,458
Hyundai/Kia 974,728

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Another tidbit...Kia/Hyundai when combined are within an eyelash of passing Honda as the number 5 best seller in the US...I am guessing that if not next year then they will pass Honda in 2014...the Hyundai Motor Group is the fourth largest auto manufacturer in the world behind Toyota, GM, and VW...most people are stunned by that fact...
2012 ytd

Honda 1,066,458
Hyundai/Kia 974,728


Hyundia/Kia give a 100,000mi/10year warranty. I think that has attracted many. That, and Blake Griffin's endorsement of the Kia Optima - official car of the NBA.


n-AxWRVqE1E

[pphilfran]

Hyundia/Kia give 100,000mi/10year warranty. I think that has attracted many.

Low cost of ownership always helps...

[SicEmBaylor]

This is the prediction I made in March: http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?167844-My-2012-Electoral-Prediction&highlight=electoral+prediction

If I were to make a new prediction as of this evening, it would be this:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v313/SicEmBaylor/octpredict_zps0e3c468a.png

[SanJoaquinSooner]

This is the prediction I made in March: http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?167844-My-2012-Electoral-Prediction&highlight=electoral+prediction

If I were to make a new prediction as of this evening, it would be this:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v313/SicEmBaylor/octpredict_zps0e3c468a.png


That looks like a good guess, if Obama hangs in there, with the unions handing him Ohio.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Latest Ohio poll shows a tie. This poll has a larger sample (1943 LV), thus smaller margin of error, than other recent Ohio polls.

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Realclearpolitics has Romney with 206. If he gets Colorado, Virginia Florida and penn, he wins.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UIL3x5G9KSN

Penn will be the tough one of that list. It will be interesting to see if more polls this week show movement in Penn.

[sappstuf]

Latest Ohio poll shows a tie. This poll has a larger sample (1943 LV), thus smaller margin of error, than other recent Ohio polls.

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

But has a D+9 turnout.. It was D+8 at the height of Obamamania in 2008.. It won't be anywhere near that high again.