Still Think Last Week's BLS Unemployment Data Wasn't Manipulated?

[FaninAma]

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobless-claims-impacted-by-one-state-2012-10

Like I said, you can take the man out of Chicago but you can't take Chicago out of the man. This is Banana Republic type of politics.

BTW, most are guessing Illinois is the state that didn't send in their data. Some are guessing it is California.

[cleller]

So one large state screwed up their stats? Wonder which one?

[FaninAma]

So one large state screwed up their stats? Wonder which one?

I am sure it was a blue state.

[diverdog]

I am sure it was a blue state.

This is a totally different report. All of these will be adjusted in a few weeks.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

So you think Obama's people called up a state and said, "don't report your normal seasonal workload. Delay it so it will rebound next week."?

[BigTip]

This is a totally different report. All of these will be adjusted in a few weeks.


Yes. I'm guessing about on November 7th.

[FaninAma]

So you think Obama's people called up a state and said, "don't report your normal seasonal workload. Delay it so it will rebound next week."?

Lets wait and see what happens next week before we assume that will happen. It is interesting this happened on the heels of last week's questionable numbers less than 30 days before the election.

[BigTip]

Lets wait and see what happens next week before wwe assume that will happen. It is predictable this happened on the heels of last week's questionable numbers less than 30 days before the election.

fixed for you

[pphilfran]

This is a totally different report. All of these will be adjusted in a few weeks.

This is correct....

[diverdog]

This is correct....

The better report which is the rolling 4 week average is trending down. We have slow job growth....painfully slow but trending the right direction.

[8timechamps]

The state was California, and I'm still not buying that the numbers were manipulated. I've seen the numbers screwed up many times over the years, and later corrected. It just happens that this is a major issue during the re-election, so it's on the forefront.

[hawaii 5-0]

I just saw on TV where the people filing for unemployment went down.

I think if the books were gonna be cooked it woulda been done (and reported) long ago.

Around when Nixon was President.

5-0

[FaninAma]

The better report which is the rolling 4 week average is trending down. We have slow job growth....painfully slow but trending the right direction.

With all due respect, no its not. It was stuck at between 8.1 and 8.3 percent for months and month and months. And the only reason it wasn't higher is because so many people dropped out of the work force all together. Then this month magically the household survey states that there were over 800,000 new jobs created even though the total number in the worforce did not increase. Can you explain how that happened because I sure can't.

Also, the household survey interviews 60,000 households and then they extrapolate to get their jobs figure. That sure leaves a lot of room for "extrapolation" of the results in a way you want them to turn out.

[FaninAma]

I just saw on TV where the people filing for unemployment went down.

I think if the books were gonna be cooked it woulda been done (and reported) long ago.

Around when Nixon was President.

5-0

Again, how many have dropped out of the labor market? We now have the lowest percentage of work-eligible adults participating in the workforce in over 30 years.

[diverdog]

With all due respect, no its not. It was stuck at between 8.1 and 8.3 percent for months and month and months. And the only reason it wasn't higher is because so many people dropped out of the work force all together. Then this month magically the household survey states that there were over 800,000 new jobs created even though the total number in the worforce did not increase. Can you explain how that happened because I sure can't.

Also, the household survey interviews 60,000 households and then they extrapolate to get their jobs figure. That sure leaves a lot of room for "extrapolation" of the results in a way you want them to turn out.

Different metric. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest in six months.

It is against the law to cook the books and there is a pretty hefty firewall between the politicians and DOL. if the books are cooked then someone will get fired or go to jail.

[soonercruiser]

Doesn't matter Diver, when California fails to report their bad numbers.
I'm sure that you accept it as an accident or small oversight.

[diverdog]

Doesn't matter Diver, when California fails to report their bad numbers.
I'm sure that you accept it as an accident or small oversight.

Cruiser you guys are mixing up your reports. Again the 4 week moving average is a better indicator. One report means very little in the grand scheme of things.

[SCOUT]

The BLS uses previous month data for reporting entities that don't file for a particular month. Also, individual companies file directly with the BLS and not through any state entity. I know this, because I file employment data with the BLS every month.

[cleller]

I imagine people charged with the responsibility of turning in these statewide figures are pretty familiar with the fact that sometimes the figures don't get reported properly, and are omitted. They may well have unintentionally caused this to happen in the past, and be familiar with the way it would skew the overall result.

So some persons in California could easily foresee what might happen to the results if their figures did not make it in on time. Was it intentional or not? Really, I'd say its about even money. There was probably very little to fear, an easy explanation was surely at hand.

[FaninAma]

Different metric. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest in six months.

It is against the law to cook the books and there is a pretty hefty firewall between the politicians and DOL. if the books are cooked then someone will get fired or go to jail.

Just keep telling yourself that. The total employment figures/workforce numbers do not jive with the UE numbers or the "newly" created 800K jobs. I am sure all of the states are supposed to turn in their weekly figures, too. But somehow it didn't happen. Can you provide another example in the history of tabulating the weekly UE numbers that this happened? And I know this report is based on a different metric but it is calculated by the same department and is just further proof that their is a willingness by this group of "unassailable" professionals to put out questionable or incomplete data. So either they are incompetent or they are manipulating the data? Which is it?

To claim this department is putting out accurate UE figures when everybody knows that millions who have dropped off the UE rolls and out of the labor force are not beiing counted in the UE numbers is ludicrous.

[FaninAma]

I imagine people charged with the responsibility of turning in these statewide figures are pretty familiar with the fact that sometimes the figures don't get reported properly, and are omitted. They may well have unintentionally caused this to happen in the past, and be familiar with the way it would skew the overall result.

So some persons in California could easily foresee what might happen to the results if their figures did not make it in on time. Was it intentional or not? Really, I'd say its about even money. There was probably very little to fear, an easy explanation was surely at hand.

Any other examples of this happening? And in light of the fact that the data is being examned under a microscope wouldn't you think they would want complete data compilation?

[sheepdogs]

Different metric. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 11,500 to 364,000, the lowest in six months.

It is against the law to cook the books and there is a pretty hefty firewall between the politicians and DOL. if the books are cooked then someone will get fired or go to jail.

The weekly jobless claims number was approximately 30k below expectations. If the accurate number comes within what had been expected then the 30k added back in using a four week averaging would inflate your number by 7,500 which then makes the drop you speak of statistically insignificant.

[diverdog]

The weekly jobless claims number was approximately 30k below expectations. If the accurate number comes within what had been expected then the 30k added back in using a four week averaging would inflate your number by 7,500 which then makes the drop you speak of statistically insignificant.

Sheep:

I think that is kind of my point. The 4 week rolling average is a better number. It may adjust the UE number back above 8%.

[Mazeppa]

It is against the law to cook the books and there is a pretty hefty firewall between the politicians and DOL. if the books are cooked then someone will get fired or go to jail.

This is pretty funny and naive to think someone in government would not manipulate numbers to get a certain result. Against the law or not.

[diverdog]

This is pretty funny and naive to think someone in government would not manipulate numbers to get a certain result. Against the law or not.

No doubt. All I am saying is that if that happened and it was deliberate then there should be consequences. Government should be held accountable.

[Soonerjeepman]

No doubt. All I am saying is that if that happened and it was deliberate then there should be consequences. Government should be held accountable.

let's see...obama has appointed several known cheaters...doesn't seem like he's too big on being held accountable...what about holder and F/F? Sure he's (his crew) selling out everything they have to win the election...legal or not.

[Skysooner]

let's see...obama has appointed several known cheaters...doesn't seem like he's too big on being held accountable...what about holder and F/F? Sure he's (his crew) selling out everything they have to win the election...legal or not.

Let's not get into political history here. This is pretty much every President. Go back a few years, and we have Nixon and Reagan on the R side and Clinton on the D side and that's just from memory.

[Skysooner]

This is pretty funny and naive to think someone in government would not manipulate numbers to get a certain result. Against the law or not.

Naive on his part, I don't think so. Yes there is probably manipulation, but if Romney can't win this thing with the economic numbers the way they are, do you think it really matters? Does 0.3% of unemployment figures sway the vast majority of people? The polls say no it had no effect. Instead it was Obama/Clinton speeches at the D convention and then Romney's debate performance the other night. The hardcores on each side know where they are voting. The undecideds in the middle are people easily swayed by appearance and not data.

[SoonerorLater]

The numbers are so divorced from reality that they are worthless. The powers that be don't like the numbers? Just redefine what the numbers mean.

[BigTip]

Does 0.3% of unemployment figures sway the vast majority of people? ..... The undecideds in the middle are people easily swayed by appearance and not data.

But if encouraging numbers or posted, then the "appearance" is that things are improving. The undecideds ARE easily swayed. The candidates will do anything that might change anyone's vote.

[Skysooner]

But if encouraging numbers or posted, then the "appearance" is that things are improving. The undecideds ARE easily swayed. The candidates will do anything that might change anyone's vote.

True. I still think that low information voters are going to be more swayed by the debates or won't vote at all. All will be known shortly.

[cleller]

The latest satellite view of Jerry Brown's house shows around 337,000 people living in tents, and a huge buffet.

[hawaii 5-0]

Romney's doing what he can to help the economy.

His car elevator got it's service and checkup for $40,000.


5-0

[Soonerjeepman]

Romney's doing what he can to help the economy.

His car elevator got it's service and checkup for $40,000.


5-0

point? I teach, work hard make $60K...I don't begrudge people that make more $$$...hell athletes are the most overpaid people in the world, but I still watch and cheer for my teams. If they want to spend 40K on a car elevator fine.

not sure if that is your "point" or not...but there are plenty of dems that are rich and pay for frivolous ****...

[cleller]

One more elevator repairman that can take the little missus out for dinner this weekend, and buy his kid some shoes. What a great system. We should keep it.

[sheepdogs]

The report released this morning shows the jobless claims number was 388k.

[landrun]

So you think Obama's people called up a state and said, "don't report your normal seasonal workload. Delay it so it will rebound next week."?

This was an intentional manipulation of the numbers by the state of California. ... and an Obama donor. See the link below.
If you believe Obama and the dems wouldn't do this intentionally, you've been duped... badly.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/calif-official-whose-agency-under-reported-unemployment-stats-was-obama-campaign-donor/



Calif. official whose agency under-reported unemployment stats was Obama campaign donor


Marty Morgenstern, the secretary of the California agency that substantially under-reported unemployment claims last week, contributed to President Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential election campaign, The Daily Caller has learned.

On Oct. 11, the federal government reported that weekly jobless claims were down significantly, suggesting a dramatic national increase in economic growth. But within hours, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that one major state had failed to fully document jobless claims.

Speculation among market watchers and economists initially focused on California, but the state’s Employment Development Department strongly denied that it had failed to properly document the data.

“Reports that California failed to fully report data to the U.S. Department of Labor, as required, are incorrect and irresponsible,” California Employment Development Department director Pam Harris said in a statement last week. “The California Employment Development Department, which administers the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program in the state, has reported all UI claims data and submitted the data on time.”

But early Thursday, the federal government revealed that California had, in fact, under-reported jobless data, skewing the national jobless claims results.

Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown appointed Morgenstern to lead the California Labor & Workforce Development Agency in 2011. The state agency oversees the Employment Development Department.

According to campaign disclosure records, Morgenstern donated $4,600 — the maximum amount allowed by law — to the 2008 Obama camapaign, beginning with a $1,000 contribution to Obama for America in February 2008. Morgenstern followed up that donation with a $1,300 contribution in June, and then a $2,300 payout in early September.

On all three disclosures, Morgenstern indicated that he was either ”not employed” or “retired.”

According to the Sacramento Business Journal, however, Morgenstern was employed since 2003 as a consultant for the liberal University of California education system.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/calif-official-whose-agency-under-reported-unemployment-stats-was-obama-campaign-donor/#ixzz29iPNBZej

[soonercruiser]

Romney's doing what he can to help the economy.

His car elevator got it's service and checkup for $40,000.


5-0

And, shortly before election day, the Obamas will be "closing" on a $20 Million mansion in Hawaii!
So???
(Just good planning on his part!)
:panda:

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Workforce, biggest fraud around. Shut down here in Houston for fraud. The Houston company CEO is under investigation. Dem leaning shenanigans all the way...

[TheHumanAlphabet]

And, shortly before election day, the Obamas will be "closing" on a $20 Million mansion in Hawaii!
So???
(Just good planning on his part!)
:panda:

Yep, have been scouting retirement properties in HI for some time...

[cleller]

This was an intentional manipulation of the numbers by the state of California. ... and an Obama donor. See the link below.
If you believe Obama and the dems wouldn't do this intentionally, you've been duped... badly.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/calif-official-whose-agency-under-reported-unemployment-stats-was-obama-campaign-donor/

I'd imagine this person has also donated way more than the maximum allowed via Obama's anonymous credit card donation system. These folks have scruples the size of grape nuts.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

This was an intentional manipulation of the numbers by the state of California. ... and an Obama donor. See the link below.
If you believe Obama and the dems wouldn't do this intentionally, you've been duped... badly.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/calif-official-whose-agency-under-reported-unemployment-stats-was-obama-campaign-donor/



According to the Sacramento Business Journal, however, Morgenstern was employed since 2003 as a consultant for the liberal University of California education system.

hachet job.

[cleller]

Maybe, but still true.

[FaninAma]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49620569

I am shocked I tell you....shocked!

[cleller]

From the article:
"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."


Strictly back page news now, but the earlier numbers were lead stories. Wonder why that is?

[sappstuf]

Set the narrative on page 1 and issue the corrections on page 76B...