landrun
9/25/2012, 10:13 PM
I've spent some time tonight reading up on the 2012 election polls.
In short, it seems republicans this year are saying the polls are slanted to the democrats because democrats are being over sampled in the polls. Sometimes by over 10%.
Democrats complained about this in the previous elections. Now its the Republicans' turn.
I'm not sure how this works - or should work. But here's the scoop...
It seems that the vast majority of polls right now are using models from the 2008 election - where 39-41% of the population identified themselves as democrats while 32-34% identified themselves as republicans. Hence, the higher number of democrats in polls we see right now.
But, Repubicans say to be accurate you have to use how people currently identify themselves.
Rasmussen keeps a monthly tracking of this on their site.
here --> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
In Nov 2008, it was Dems at 41% and Repubs at 33%. +8 for the dems
Today it is Dems at 33% and Repubs at 37%. +4 for the repubs
In 2010, where Repubs had historic gains, it was Dems 34% and Repubs at 36% -- only +2 for the repubs
So, since 2008, the dems have dropped 8% and the Repubs have gained 4%
And the repubs are even better now than they were in 2010.
In 2008
Rasmussen found that the partisan make-up was about 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 26% Independent. That was very close to the actual turnout of 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% Independent. (See link below on about.com)
So, the argument is that if anything, the polls should over sample the republicans by 4% or so rather than the dems by 8% or so.
Sounds logical I guess.
But... to me, you should just decide to call XXX number of people (once they determine their needed sample size) and then the number of dems/repubs just fall where they may. But it doesn't look like this is how it is done. I'm no statistician so I can't say how it should be done. But it does seem a little off to me that you would intentionally sample more democrats then republicans.
Here's a couple of interesting links I've found regarding this:
http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/republicans-to-pollsters-too-many-democrats-in-your-surveys-20120925
http://usconservatives.about.com/od/campaignselections/a/A-Look-At-Voter-Turnout-And-Enthusiasm.htm
So, my question for my fellow Sooner fans, left and right included, is what do you think? Are the poll a little off right now in favor of the dems? :pop:
In short, it seems republicans this year are saying the polls are slanted to the democrats because democrats are being over sampled in the polls. Sometimes by over 10%.
Democrats complained about this in the previous elections. Now its the Republicans' turn.
I'm not sure how this works - or should work. But here's the scoop...
It seems that the vast majority of polls right now are using models from the 2008 election - where 39-41% of the population identified themselves as democrats while 32-34% identified themselves as republicans. Hence, the higher number of democrats in polls we see right now.
But, Repubicans say to be accurate you have to use how people currently identify themselves.
Rasmussen keeps a monthly tracking of this on their site.
here --> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
In Nov 2008, it was Dems at 41% and Repubs at 33%. +8 for the dems
Today it is Dems at 33% and Repubs at 37%. +4 for the repubs
In 2010, where Repubs had historic gains, it was Dems 34% and Repubs at 36% -- only +2 for the repubs
So, since 2008, the dems have dropped 8% and the Repubs have gained 4%
And the repubs are even better now than they were in 2010.
In 2008
Rasmussen found that the partisan make-up was about 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 26% Independent. That was very close to the actual turnout of 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% Independent. (See link below on about.com)
So, the argument is that if anything, the polls should over sample the republicans by 4% or so rather than the dems by 8% or so.
Sounds logical I guess.
But... to me, you should just decide to call XXX number of people (once they determine their needed sample size) and then the number of dems/repubs just fall where they may. But it doesn't look like this is how it is done. I'm no statistician so I can't say how it should be done. But it does seem a little off to me that you would intentionally sample more democrats then republicans.
Here's a couple of interesting links I've found regarding this:
http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/republicans-to-pollsters-too-many-democrats-in-your-surveys-20120925
http://usconservatives.about.com/od/campaignselections/a/A-Look-At-Voter-Turnout-And-Enthusiasm.htm
So, my question for my fellow Sooner fans, left and right included, is what do you think? Are the poll a little off right now in favor of the dems? :pop: