Oklahoma 16 point fav over KState

[JLEW1818]

Line is open.

[olevetonahill]

Line is open.

Figure we will win but I aint bettin that spread

[rock on sooner]

This early, line might be generous, we're at home but Klein looks
pretty darn good...don't think I'd give 16...maybe 10?

[yermom]

i'd take the points if i was into that kinda thing

[JLEW1818]

Yah I wouldn't mess with this one either. Just like seeing how Vegas thinks.

[8timechamps]

i'd take the points if i was into that kinda thing

Me too, but I don't bet on the Sooners. Maybe a vBet.

[S.PadreIsl.Sooner]

Me too, but I don't bet on the Sooners. Maybe a vBet.

Luv me some vBets!

[nighttrain12]

Luv me some vBets!


Yeah, I was looking forward to some NFL bets today though.

[OUInformant]

Looking like the line will close. We always play well in hyped-up games in Norman. 16 is a little steep, but it is still a tough call.

[marfacowboy]

Just saw Walker is back. That will help. Need McGee before Texas.

[JLEW1818]

Quickly down to 14.5

[soonerboy_odanorth]

So if I recall it was explained to me that Vegas doesn't set the line to predict the winner, but they set the line they think will bring the most betting from both sides... and when lines move... it is because they are getting betting that is too heavy to one side.

Do I have that right? I mean, maybe it's obvious to many, but it has a little nuance to it.

Anyway, here's the thing.... Does this line to anyone here seem like it would generate any betting on Oklahoma? The line in and of itself makes me nervous. And I don't bet, but if I did I'd have to put money on K-State. I think they're a real threat to win, not just cover the spread.

I don't get it...

[VA Sooner]

16 is a bit high for my tastes...

[soonerboy_odanorth]

...missed the previous post...

Where would you start betting OU? I think it would have to be at 6 for me to take a betting chance.

[8timechamps]

...missed the previous post...

Where would you start betting OU? I think it would have to be at 6 for me to take a betting chance.

If it came down to 13, and I were in Vegas, and not a Sooner fan, I'd bet it.

[King Crimson]

i'll take any kind of W in this one, thank you very much.

Snyder spooks me a little.

[marfacowboy]

i'll take any kind of W in this one, thank you very much.

Snyder spooks me a little.

agreed...we're not in any position to be bellyaching about a line...a win over these guys is always a good win

[oudivesherpa]

OU by 9 1/2.

[olevetonahill]

agreed...we're not in any position to be bellyaching about a line...a win over these guys is always a good win

The only ones complaining about it think its way to high
Pay tention

[goingoneight]

A win by a single point in quadruple OT would make me happy seeing how we've looked a little out-of-sync so far.

[ouflak]

I'm not going to post a -16 line. I really want to try and fish you guys into vBetting on this thing. I'm thinking of maybe -8, but maybe a few other lines with higher payouts. We'll see.

[LRoss]

So if I recall it was explained to me that Vegas doesn't set the line to predict the winner, but they set the line they think will bring the most betting from both sides... and when lines move... it is because they are getting betting that is too heavy to one side.

Do I have that right? I mean, maybe it's obvious to many, but it has a little nuance to it.

Anyway, here's the thing.... Does this line to anyone here seem like it would generate any betting on Oklahoma? The line in and of itself makes me nervous. And I don't bet, but if I did I'd have to put money on K-State. I think they're a real threat to win, not just cover the spread.

I don't get it...


Yes, you have that right, if by "bring the most betting from both sides" you mean "bring equal betting from both sides." And yes, the line moving from 16 to 14.5 means more money was being laid on K St.

For real though -- especially down a pt and a half from where it started, I can understand OU getting plenty of action. Sure we've looked mediocre so far, but an extra week off to prepare, playing in Norman (hardcore gamblers understand how meaningful this is), recent history considering how we smoked them last year. I tend to agree with the majority that 16 might have been high to start, but at what point do you say "I'm going to bet money against OU at home"? That's a scary bet for my money, even if I wasn't biased.

[Ruf/Nek7]

I bet it closes at 13. I think I would take OU to cover that. I just hope we can have a repeat performance from last year only this time, Whaley doesn't get hurt.

[Soonermagik]

Man, I was thinking around 9 or 11 on the line. Then again, it is at home and OU typically plays well in Norman. I just want the W.

[Statalyzer]

KSU's the type of team that's very hard to beat by a large margin even if your odds to be the winner straight-up are excellent. Of course last year proves that it's doable, and that OU specifically can do it. But that was an offense with Ryan Broyles, so I don't see a blowout even though I'm not laying any money on KSU either - as you guys are saying, I know better than to bet against the Sooners in Norman.

[PrideMom]

North Texas played Kansas State heads up. They played just very vanilla football. Kansas State did not do anything to impress me. But knowing them they are saving it for OU. Look for late hits from them to take out key players. I know they have a very good quarterback, but OU should be able to take care of that, they did last year.....and being home helps.

[budbarrybob]

A win by a single point in quadruple OT would make me happy seeing how we've looked a little out-of-sync so far.

Nope. I would rather not have to take it to OT at home vs a team we beat the snot out of last year at their home. A 10 pt win would make me happy.

[kevpks]

Snyder said that if they don't practice well this week, they'll lose 150-0. That is my prediction; however, -10 seems to be a reasonable line and I would imagine that is where it will sit by Thursday.

[fwsooner22]

I quit the betting game (for the most part) a decade ago. However, here are a few things I learned (but didn't always practice). Teams like OU seemed to get the line you would expect (say 10 pts this week), plus 3 more to be at home and then 2 or 3 more because they have such a following. The money has to balance for the book to be comfortable, right ? I tried to stay away from OU as much as I could because of that. One of the fun things I was taught decades ago is lines don't typically move more than 2 points or so. If they do you bet that way. In other words if Kevpics prediction of a 6 point move actually happens. You bettors might want to jump on that KSU bandwagon.

[olevetonahill]

The Yahoo Pickem has us a 14 point Fav.

Ill bet anything less than that say 13.5 er sompun

[XingTheRubicon]

Stoops has coached OU in 81 home games in Norman.

OU has failed to win by double digits in 9 of those games. Every single one those teams either were not ranked, or were not ranked at the end of the year.

In games vs. currently ranked teams in Norman...OU has won by an average of 27 points.

[8timechamps]

Stoops has coached OU in 81 home games in Norman.

OU has failed to win by double digits in 9 of those games. Every single one those teams either were not ranked, or were not ranked at the end of the year.

In games vs. currently ranked teams in Norman...OU has won by an average of 27 points.

Looking at some stats last night, and didn't realize how well the Sooners have played at home versus upstart-ranked teams (Iowa State, Mizzou, OSU & K-State). I don't know much about the historical point margin, but it's no secret that the stadium is always a little more electric when a conference team comes in ranked. There is some truth that players feed off of that energy (see Tech in '08).

More impressive to me is that Stoops is 14-4 coming off of bye weeks. Give a good coach and staff (like the one OU has) an extra week to prepare, you better bring a perfect game to Norman if you want a shot to win.

[hawaii 5-0]

The Sooners better bring solid Special Teams play.

Those Puddy's will come after our punter and place kicker.

5-0

[FtwTxSooner]

More impressive to me is that Stoops is 14-4 coming off of bye weeks. Give a good coach and staff (like the one OU has) an extra week to prepare, you better bring a perfect game to Norman if you want a shot to win.

Actually, amazingly enough, Stoops' record after a bye week is a bit worse than his overall record.

Overall 141-34 (.8057)
Bye Week 14-4 (.7778)

[VA Sooner]

Stoops has coached OU in 81 home games in Norman.

OU has failed to win by double digits in 9 of those games. Every single one those teams either were not ranked, or were not ranked at the end of the year.

In games vs. currently ranked teams in Norman...OU has won by an average of 27 points.



I love these stats! Most impressive home record.

[8timechamps]

Actually, amazingly enough, Stoops' record after a bye week is a bit worse than his overall record.

Overall 141-34 (.8057)
Bye Week 14-4 (.7778)

Both are impressive.

[Statalyzer]

In games vs. currently ranked teams in Norman...OU has won by an average of 27 points.

Did you really mean currently ranked teams, or did you mean teams that were ranked at the time of the game?

[TheUnnamedSooner]

KState has always played tough in Norman in Stoops tenure.

[BermudaSooner]

A win by a single point in quadruple OT would make me happy seeing how we've looked a little out-of-sync so far.

actually I think that scenario is impossible given you have to go for 2 in the 3rd OT....just sayin...

[StoopTroup]

16, 9 1/2 or even if they want to give us points....I'm betting OU.

We beat them 58-17 on their own field last year with a team that had one leg, blind in one eye and everyone on the team was a double amputee.

It will be a good game and I think we will be just fine no matter what Vegas thinks.

[XingTheRubicon]

Did you really mean currently ranked teams, or did you mean teams that were ranked at the time of the game?

the latter, heh

[FirstandGoal]

If it came down to 13, and I were in Vegas, and not a Sooner fan, I'd bet it.

^^^^^^ This

I normally don't bet OU football, but I would almost be willing to bet the farm on this if it came down to under 14

[olevetonahill]

^^^^^^ This

I normally don't bet OU football, but I would almost be willing to bet the farm on this if it came down to under 14

Not Me Hon, Ive been burned too many times By that dayum spread when Bettin OU

I wont hardly ever bet on em anymore, The spread is usually way to much

[StoopTroup]

Bet it everytime. You'll make more money than lose at Seasons end.

[ouflak]

VBet is up!!! (http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?171022-9-22-2012-KSU-vs-OU)

[Statalyzer]

A win by a single point in quadruple OT would make me happy seeing how we've looked a little out-of-sync so far.
actually I think that scenario is impossible given you have to go for 2 in the 3rd OT....just sayin...

It might be theoretically possible. Team A goes first and kicks a FG. Team B goes second and throws a pass into the endzone which team A intercepts. Needlessly, the defender from Team A tries to return the interception instead of kneeling it. He makes it out of the endzone, gets hit, and fumbles back into the endzone and out of bounds. Team B thus scores a safety, but it's not enough to win.

[BoulderSooner79]

It might be theoretically possible. Team A goes first and kicks a FG. Team B goes second and throws a pass into the endzone which team A intercepts. Needlessly, the defender from Team A tries to return the interception instead of kneeling it. He makes it out of the endzone, gets hit, and fumbles back into the endzone and out of bounds. Team B thus scores a safety, but it's not enough to win.

-- OR -- Team A scores a TD first and gets the XP blocked and run back for 2 against them. Team B stalls out near the goal line but gets flagged a few times to make it 4th and goal from the 30. Coach B decides the odds are nil of scoring a TD, so he kicks a FG to conserve BCS points by making the score closer. The fans then storm the field to draw and quarter coach B.

[8timechamps]

Oklahoma went to a 16.5 favorite in the past couple of hours. That's a pretty big jump. Wonder why?

[JLEW1818]

Oklahoma went to a 16.5 favorite in the past couple of hours. That's a pretty big jump. Wonder why?

Bell

[goingoneight]

I don't see a 16-point win for either team just given both teams' indentities we've seen from them so far. Both teams seems to play it pretty close to the vest and turnovers haven't really been an issue. OU's had some fumbles, but they've had a bye week to clean that up.
I think the winner is the team who can go out there and be the LEAST one-dimensional. IOW, LJ won't win it all with his arm and Klein won't win it all on his feet. I can see lots of single-coverage and Mike bringing the house on Klein.

[SCKSCat]

I can see lots of single-coverage and Mike bringing the house on Klein.

That worked last year and should do the job this year. Plus, it's at OU, where the Sooner defense should be fired up. I don't have enough evidence on how much Collin has improved on his passing to know if he can get more passes off against that D-Line.

Living out of Big 12 territory now, the last time I saw Landry was in the Insight Bowl, and he was vastly different without Broyles. K-State MUST make Landry move or OU will easily beat the spread. That or Landry throws off target. He had his best accuracy game last year against us, and only two INTs by Malone kept it from being a near flawless performance.

[JLEW1818]

OU was a 7.5 fav against tech in 2008 and people thought tech would cover that all day.

Same with at poke state that year.

When OU is on, there is no stoping.

[olevetonahill]

OU was a 7.5 fav against tech in 2008 and people thought tech would cover that all day.

Same with at poke state that year.

When OU is on, there is no stoping.

I said I wouldnt touch that 16 spread yet Flak put up the 21 point spread at 10 to 1 I jumped all over it :congratulatory:

[OU_Sooners75]

If KSU does like they did against their first three opponents on defense, OU will eat them alive.

Their secondary just isn't very good and have been playing to keep everything in front of them.

That said they will likely play tighter and try to keep the WRs on the line. They will also be bringing blitzes from all over the place.

If rumors are true from over the summer, then look for OU to play more power football. And look for .landry being under center more.

Also, look for OU to go deep a few times to get the defense off the ball some.


Anyway, I don't expect to see the same OU we saw vs UTEP or FAMU. Nor do I expect to see the same KSU that I saw the first three games.


IMO, 16 points is just about right. The last I saw, the spread was down to 14. By kickoff it will likely be around 15.

Either way, OU covers!

[JLEW1818]

Tonight, we will see plays on offense and defense that we have never ran before.