Will young voters actually show up in November this time?

[badger]

We've heard this before, but it is almost different this time. (http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-angry-with-economy-youth-vote-to-jump-50/article/2505725#.UDZg6GzCz8B)

Soon I'll be exiting the 20s demographic and no longer group myself with this coveted advertiser but ignored voter group.

Sure, there's young republicans and young democrats on campuses like OU, but they are mostly used to distribute flyers and signs, rather than actually being catered to as actual voters.

This time around feels different than the past apathetic years. The freedom to waste time and money has seemed to always be important to the 18-29 demographic (and I say that in an endearing way, because I don't think there's anyone here who didn't waste time and/or money during those years), but it vanishing without the job prospects or the Bank of Mom and Dad funds that they used to rely on to wait out the right opportunity after college, to get a shiny new car after graduation, to maybe even own a home, get married and start a family.

I think that young voters aren't to their breaking point yet. I think they'll forget to register to vote in advance, or forget to show up on voting day.

[Skysooner]

We've heard this before, but it is almost different this time. (http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-angry-with-economy-youth-vote-to-jump-50/article/2505725#.UDZg6GzCz8B)

Soon I'll be exiting the 20s demographic and no longer group myself with this coveted advertiser but ignored voter group.

Sure, there's young republicans and young democrats on campuses like OU, but they are mostly used to distribute flyers and signs, rather than actually being catered to as actual voters.

This time around feels different than the past apathetic years. The freedom to waste time and money has seemed to always be important to the 18-29 demographic (and I say that in an endearing way, because I don't think there's anyone here who didn't waste time and/or money during those years), but it vanishing without the job prospects or the Bank of Mom and Dad funds that they used to rely on to wait out the right opportunity after college, to get a shiny new car after graduation, to maybe even own a home, get married and start a family.

I think that young voters aren't to their breaking point yet. I think they'll forget to register to vote in advance, or forget to show up on voting day.

I actually think this is the real key to the election this time. Polls and all that discussion ahead of the election is all fine and well. It is whether Obama can get his demographic out. There is no real excitement for him this time. If the demographic rolls out, he wins handily. If the young voters and other minority group voters don't come out, this is going to be a close election.

[badger]

The thing is... would youth voters turn out for Obama, knowing that he was president during these four years of economic craptacularity?

[rock on sooner]

I actually think this is the real key to the election this time. Polls and all that discussion ahead of the election is all fine and well. It is whether Obama can get his demographic out. There is no real excitement for him this time. If the demographic rolls out, he wins handily. If the young voters and other minority group voters don't come out, this is going to be a close election.

Can't speak for the rest of the country but in IA the "boots on the
ground" group are working hard for the Obama team and many of
them are young. I think there's going to be some drop off from '08
but not as much as the Pubs are hoping for. What's going to be a
big marker will be to see just how engaged people get in about 10
days. In the swing states Obama has nearly twice as many offices
as Romney. Romney is hustling to catch up but there might not
be enough time.

Nearly every poll has Obama up in the swing states. Just saw a
poll where Akin has taken a nose dive in Misery. Some social issues
will be out front moreso that the Pubs want, thanks to Mr. Akin.

[Skysooner]

Can't speak for the rest of the country but in IA the "boots on the
ground" group are working hard for the Obama team and many of
them are young. I think there's going to be some drop off from '08
but not as much as the Pubs are hoping for. What's going to be a
big marker will be to see just how engaged people get in about 10
days. In the swing states Obama has nearly twice as many offices
as Romney. Romney is hustling to catch up but there might not
be enough time.

Nearly every poll has Obama up in the swing states. Just saw a
poll where Akin has taken a nose dive in Misery. Some social issues
will be out front moreso that the Pubs want, thanks to Mr. Akin.


Badger-Completely agree. Lots of young people with no jobs or crappy jobs right now either won't vote or will pull the lever the other way.

Social issues is about the only thing right now that even has me thinking the other way, but it isn't enough to overcome what will be energy policy that will affect my industry for the next 10-20 years. It is the local congressman that won't be getting my vote this time (Mike Coffman).

In Colorado, Romney has a slight lead right now. There are commercials all over that I can thankfully fast forward through.

[badger]

In Colorado, Romney has a slight lead right now. There are commercials all over that I can thankfully fast forward through.

It wasn't fun to be a swing state in Wisconsin in 2000. Fortunately for my fellow cheeseheads, I'm thinking that Ryan's VEEP nominee means that Wisky is no longer a swing state and that Obama will abandon that state in favor of other states up for grabs... like nearby Michigan and Ohio, for example.

One issue where Dems can really sway the young vote is college costs. Romney hasn't really presented a strong argument, whereas Obama, to his credit, spoke of limiting the availability of student aid to colleges that don't try to limit the costs.

[okie52]

Rarely do people have the same energy for a candidate the 2nd time around.

[yermom]

but who is really excited about Rmoney?

who is really upset with Obama on the economy?

[pphilfran]

but who is really excited about Rmoney?

who is really upset with Obama on the economy?

Not me...

Me...

Vote out all incumbents...

[yermom]

it has done nothing but improve since he took office has it?

[hawaii 5-0]

With the new Jim Crow laws passed by the Republican legislatures the young, black, latino and older folks without an ID won't be allowed to vote.


5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

but who is really excited about Rmoney?

who is really upset with Obama on the economy?

I'm not above voting Republican. If they had a valid candidate. Romney reminds me too much of a TV evangalist/Used car salesman/Insurance agent.

He used to be for socialized medicine. He was the Father of socialized medicine. How quick people forget.

He used to be Pro-Choice. Now he's anti-choice.

He actually signed a permanent assault weapons ban. Now he's pro-gun.

He really can't be trusted on anything he says or does.

I'm amazed that people think he's the answer.

Is my life better than it was 4 years ago. Yes, a little. Not as much as I hoped. There's a lot of reasons why. It starts with the obstructionist Congress. No willingness to work together at all.

The more I know Tom Coburn the more I like him. Too bad he wasn't running.

5-0

[okie52]

it has done nothing but improve since he took office has it?

He's been above 8% on unemployment for almost his entire term and run a trillion dollar plus deficit every year..not really getting better at all.

[okie52]

I'm not above voting Republican. If they had a valid candidate. Romney reminds me too much of a TV evangalist/Used car salesman/Insurance agent.

He used to be for socialized medicine. He was the Father of socialized medicine. How quick people forget.

He used to be Pro-Choice. Now he's anti-choice.

He actually signed a permanent assault weapons ban. Now he's pro-gun.

He really can't be trusted on anything he says or does.

I'm amazed that people think he's the answer.

Is my life better than it was 4 years ago. Yes, a little. Not as much as I hoped. There's a lot of reasons why. It starts with the obstructionist Congress. No willingness to work together at all.

The more I know Tom Coburn the more I like him. Too bad he wasn't running.

5-0

Obviously you're a real issue voting guy since coburn supports so many Obama positions.

[okie52]

but who is really excited about Rmoney?

who is really upset with Obama on the economy?

I guess we'll find out.

[okie52]

With the new Jim Crow laws passed by the Republican legislatures the young, black, latino and older folks without an ID won't be allowed to vote.


5-0

So you can't vote now?

[rock on sooner]

It wasn't fun to be a swing state in Wisconsin in 2000. Fortunately for my fellow cheeseheads, I'm thinking that Ryan's VEEP nominee means that Wisky is no longer a swing state and that Obama will abandon that state in favor of other states up for grabs... like nearby Michigan and Ohio, for example.

One issue where Dems can really sway the young vote is college costs. Romney hasn't really presented a strong argument, whereas Obama, to his credit, spoke of limiting the availability of student aid to colleges that don't try to limit the costs.

Don't think so, Badg. Michelle was in WI yesterday...saw a poll a while back
that had Obama up by 6 points in WI AFTER Ryan was picked.

[badger]

The more I know Tom Coburn the more I like him. Too bad he wasn't running.

5-0

He has to be the only Republican brave enough to say publicly that taxes must be raised to get rid of the debt, not just spending cuts. It was when Democrats suddenly were all about tax hikes and not spending cuts that he walked out of budget compromise meetings. I think he is giving it another try now that it's crunch time, though.


Don't think so, Badg. Michelle was in WI yesterday...saw a poll a while back
that had Obama up by 6 points in WI AFTER Ryan was picked.

It's possible. Madison is filled it young and naive college students, hehe.

Seriously though, I'd have to guess that Wisconsin is fed up with the Democrats that abandoned their union fight cause when they needed them most. Yes, I'm referring to the Walker recall vote. After months of Capitol camping, fake doctors notes to protest the move by teachers and other public workers, and getting the recall on the ballot... where was the national party to fund the recall effort via TV advertisements, getting out the vote, etc? Gone in favor of the presidential election and other November 2012 elections.

Really sad. Even though I personally wasn't in favor of the recall effort, I felt like my poor Wisconsinites got hung out to dry up there. :(

[ictsooner7]

I'm not above voting Republican. If they had a valid candidate. Romney reminds me too much of a TV evangalist/Used car salesman/Insurance agent.

He used to be for socialized medicine. He was the Father of socialized medicine. How quick people forget.

He used to be Pro-Choice. Now he's anti-choice.

He actually signed a permanent assault weapons ban. Now he's pro-gun.

He really can't be trusted on anything he says or does.

I'm amazed that people think he's the answer.

Is my life better than it was 4 years ago. Yes, a little. Not as much as I hoped. There's a lot of reasons why. It starts with the obstructionist Congress. No willingness to work together at all.

The more I know Tom Coburn the more I like him. Too bad he wasn't running.

5-0

http://scratch.mit.edu/static/projects/kingkong/15514_med.png

[ictsooner7]

He's been above 8% on unemployment for almost his entire term and run a trillion dollar plus deficit every year..not really getting better at all.

You really believe things are not getting any better? If you do, you have drank way too much of the republican kool-aid. Think back to 4 short years ago when jobs were being lost at a rate of 750,000 a MONTH. The economy was heading towards a recession; gdp was dropping year after year since 2004. 401k have rebounded, some of us have more in retirement that before the recession. When Barack Obama was elected, out of six people in my family, 1 had a job, ONE. Now all six have jobs, good jobs. Three in our field, two in college with decent part time jobs and the republican party did nothing to help.

The economy is so much better than when he took office it is not even a discussion.

[pphilfran]

He's been above 8% on unemployment for almost his entire term and run a trillion dollar plus deficit every year..not really getting better at all.


There is no doubt the economy is better...my problem is that he did not reach goals he set for himself...looking at the other side of the coin it is hard for me to fathom the economy not getting better when he had unlimited spending and every type of stimulus imaginable...

Give me trillions upon trillions of dollars to spend with no regard to the deficit and the debt and I could have probably made some gains in the economic climate... I would have spent a hell of a lot more on infrastructure....

[REDREX]

You really believe things are not getting any better? If you do, you have drank way too much of the republican kool-aid. Think back to 4 short years ago when jobs were being lost at a rate of 750,000 a MONTH. The economy was heading towards a recession; gdp was dropping year after year since 2004. 401k have rebounded, some of us have more in retirement that before the recession. When Barack Obama was elected, out of six people in my family, 1 had a job, ONE. Now all six have jobs, good jobs. Three in our field, two in college with decent part time jobs and the republican party did nothing to help.

The economy is so much better than when he took office it is not even a discussion.---- Keep in mind that the Dems controlled Congress when things went South----If your family was able to find jobs it had nothing to do with Barack

[okie52]

You really believe things are not getting any better? If you do, you have drank way too much of the republican kool-aid. Think back to 4 short years ago when jobs were being lost at a rate of 750,000 a MONTH. The economy was heading towards a recession; gdp was dropping year after year since 2004. 401k have rebounded, some of us have more in retirement that before the recession. When Barack Obama was elected, out of six people in my family, 1 had a job, ONE. Now all six have jobs, good jobs. Three in our field, two in college with decent part time jobs and the republican party did nothing to help.

The economy is so much better than when he took office it is not even a discussion.

For you the economy is better. Unemployment was what when Obama took office? What is it now?

So how did Obama help you and your family get jobs? What fields are you in? What specifically did Obama/dems do to help you get those jobs.

[okie52]

There is no doubt the economy is better...my problem is that he did not reach goals he set for himself...looking at the other side of the coin it is hard for me to fathom the economy not getting better when he had unlimited spending and every type of stimulus imaginable...

Give me trillions upon trillions of dollars to spend with no regard to the deficit and the debt and I could have probably made some gains in the economic climate... I would have spent a hell of a lot more on infrastructure....

Well I meant to just say unemployment but you are right...throw a trillion plus every year at the economy and you would hope to see some results even though the debt has gone through the roof.

[badger]

You really believe things are not getting any better?

I hate to do this, but ict is right - some parts of the country are better off than they were a few years ago. If you look at Oklahoma, we are building up a huge Rainy Day Fund reserve, our unemployment is close to full (defined by economists as 5 percent unemployment due to people being between jobs) and while our schools could always use more funding, they are not in the dire straits they were a few years ago when we were cutting tons of positions up here in Tulsa and moving people around everywhere to comply with union contracts and such.

Other parts of the country are just as bad if not worse than they were a few years ago. They are mostly the areas that enjoy huge success in times of plenty, so I'm not really too concerned about their well-being. Awwww, California, you mean that you have tons of beachfront property, the best university system in the country, Hollywood celebrities and top tech companies and you managed to screw that up? Boo hoo.

[hawaii 5-0]

but who is really excited about Rmoney?





If I recall Oklahoma went with Santorum.

I still haven't seem much support for Romney on this Board.

Just a lot of Hope v2.0


5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

I can still remember several years ago when there was a large Okie migration to North Dallas and Asstin for job seekers.

It helps the unemployment when the unemployed move away.


5-0

[okie52]

I hate to do this, but ict is right - some parts of the country are better off than they were a few years ago. If you look at Oklahoma, we are building up a huge Rainy Day Fund reserve, our unemployment is close to full (defined by economists as 5 percent unemployment due to people being between jobs) and while our schools could always use more funding, they are not in the dire straits they were a few years ago when we were cutting tons of positions up here in Tulsa and moving people around everywhere to comply with union contracts and such.

Other parts of the country are just as bad if not worse than they were a few years ago. They are mostly the areas that enjoy huge success in times of plenty, so I'm not really too concerned about their well-being. Awwww, California, you mean that you have tons of beachfront property, the best university system in the country, Hollywood celebrities and top tech companies and you managed to screw that up? Boo hoo.


Oklahoma is doing great....do to oil and gas...the very industry Obama has tried to punish.

[okie52]

If I recall Oklahoma went with Santorum.

I still haven't seem much support for Romney on this Board.

Just a lot of Hope v2.0


5-0

And yet Romney will win every county in OK.

[okie52]

I can still remember several years ago when there was a large Okie migration to North Dallas and Asstin for job seekers.

It helps the unemployment when the unemployed move away.


5-0

When was that...the early 90's.

Oklahoma has been growing for quite some time.

OK's unemployment rate

Oklahoma
4.9%(p) in Jul 2012

Hawaii
6.4%(p) in Jul 2012

Oklahoma's tourism is killing Hawaii's.

[hawaii 5-0]

When was that...the early 90's.

Oklahoma has been growing for quite some time.

OK's unemployment rate

Oklahoma
4.9%(p) in Jul 2012

Hawaii
6.4%(p) in Jul 2012

Oklahoma's tourism is killing Hawaii's.


Laff o' the Day !!!!! I'd love to see your tourism stats.

Hawaii enjoys low unemployment. Better than most of the country. We have many unemployed because people can live here cheaply it they choose. I refer to those that live in beachparks, wearing shorts and t shirts year round, living outta dumpsters for food. Most of the beachparks have them. On the leeward side there's whole villages. Kinda like Hawaii's trailer parks.

Those that want a higher standard of living move to Washington
State, or Cali. They used to move to Vegas till it hit hard times.


BTW, it's very rare to see an RV here, but when I do I always chuckle.

5-0

[badger]

Oklahoma's tourism is killing Hawaii's.
We have some kick arse staycation resorts here. Mostly Cherokee's Hard Rock Hotel in Tulsa :P

[yermom]

If I recall Oklahoma went with Santorum.

I still haven't seem much support for Romney on this Board.

Just a lot of Hope v2.0


5-0

OK is irrelevant

i'm talking about places that matter in the election

[pphilfran]

We have many unemployed because people can live here cheaply it they choose. I refer to those that live in beachparks, wearing shorts and t shirts year round, living outta dumpsters for food.
5-0

Laff o' the Day !!!!!

[REDREX]

We have some kick arse staycation resorts here. Mostly Cherokee's Hard Rock Hotel in Tulsa :P
----The Hard Rock is in Catoosa

[okie52]

Laff o' the Day !!!!! I'd love to see your tourism stats.

Hawaii enjoys low unemployment. Better than most of the country. We have many unemployed because people can live here cheaply it they choose. I refer to those that live in beachparks, wearing shorts and t shirts year round, living outta dumpsters for food. Most of the beachparks have them. On the leeward side there's whole villages. Kinda like Hawaii's trailer parks.

Those that want a higher standard of living move to Washington
State, or Cali. They used to move to Vegas till it hit hard times.


BTW, it's very rare to see an RV here, but when I do I always chuckle.

5-0

Standard of living low in Hawaii?

Where would an RV go in Hawaii? There's really not that much space.

[okie52]

OK is irrelevant

i'm talking about places that matter in the election

What would those be...Iowa?

[pphilfran]

Standard of living low in Hawaii?

Where would an RV go in Hawaii? There's really not that much space.

Yes..and they eat out every day...at a dumpster....

[rock on sooner]

What would those be...Iowa?

We here in Iowa say "thank you?" But, WI, OH, PA, FL, NV
and a few others feel left out..:upset:

[okie52]

Yes..and they eat out every day...at a dumpster....

LOL....

I guess I could mail them a garbage care package.

[okie52]

We here in Iowa say "thank you?" But, WI, OH, PA, FL, NV
and a few others feel left out..:upset:

I just heard Romney and Obama were wearing it out in Iowa (which is smaller than OK) so I figured it must be an important swing state? :confusion:

[pphilfran]

Now if you aren't living out of a dumpster it is dead last...tied with Cali....

By City
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/prices/consumer_price_indexes_cost_of_living_index.html

Honolulu

Third most expensive city in US based on composite index
Most expensive for food (unless dining in a dumpster)
Fifth most expensive housing
Sixth most expensive utilities
Second most expensive transportation
9th most expensive healthcare
18th most expensive on misc

Total cities in database...325

[hawaii 5-0]

Like I said, living is cheap in Hawaii if you choose a certain lifestyle. Twisting my words doesn't prove any point.

Several years back certain towns were sending their homeless to Hawaii on a one-way ticket to be rid of them.



Say, I wonder how those tourism stats are coming. I wanna see Okie52 twist that one.

5-0

[pphilfran]

Like I said, living is cheap in Hawaii if you choose a certain lifestyle. Twisting my words doesn't prove any point.

Several years back certain towns were sending their homeless to Hawaii on a one-way ticket to be rid of them.



Say, I wonder how those tourism stats are coming. I wanna see Okie52 twist that one.

5-0
He was bull****ting you on the tourism...

I cannot believe you are justifying eating out of a dumpster as a "lifestyle"...give me a break...

[pphilfran]

At least a quality lifestyle in which you could raise a family or be a productive part of society...

These people are the dregs of society...

[pphilfran]

When they get sick they will the first in line at the emergency room...these type people are sucking the life out of the rest of us...

[pphilfran]

Like I said, living is cheap in Hawaii if you choose a certain lifestyle. Twisting my words doesn't prove any point.

Several years back certain towns were sending their homeless to Hawaii on a one-way ticket to be rid of them.



Say, I wonder how those tourism stats are coming. I wanna see Okie52 twist that one.

5-0

How did I twist your words? One can live anywhere on the cheap if you are a useless bum....all a person needs is an old shopping buggy and you are now in the recycling business...remember, small business creates most of he jobs in the US.... :)

[okie52]

Like I said, living is cheap in Hawaii if you choose a certain lifestyle. Twisting my words doesn't prove any point.

Several years back certain towns were sending their homeless to Hawaii on a one-way ticket to be rid of them.



Say, I wonder how those tourism stats are coming. I wanna see Okie52 twist that one.

5-0

Good God, I thought you got the joke, however, I certainly wasn't kidding about OK's unemployment being lower than Hawaii's.

[pphilfran]

Good God, I thought you got the joke, however, I certainly wasn't kidding about OK's unemployment being lower than Hawaii's.

I am still trying to figure out how a 15k investment is solar panels on his home (30k prior to subsidy) increased his home value by 70k....

[rock on sooner]

I just heard Romney and Obama were wearing it out in Iowa (which is smaller than OK) so I figured it must be an important swing state? :confusion:
You're right about wearing it out for our 6 little votes, but
FL, for example, there is NO air time left to buy. Here in
IA it'll ramp up more when the local races engage.

IMO, IA, FL, OH will decide the presidency. I still say
the electoral college needs to go!

[hawaii 5-0]

My BS Factor is pretty low today I guess. No worries.

It's rare to see an RV by itself at a beachpark.

There's plenty of RVs in Hawaii tho, despite of the grins and giggles.

You'll see lines of them along the road, used as dressing rooms when a production company is shooting a TV show or movie on location.

They keep 'em stored in Kapolei.

I'm amazed how much some of you poke fun of Hawaii without really having a clue.

Actually I'm pretty used to it when I tell Californians that I'm originally from Oklahoma. I always get the 'dumb toothless hick slurs'. They really know how to hold a grudge.

5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

I am still trying to figure out how a 15k investment is solar panels on his home (30k prior to subsidy) increased his home value by 70k....

You're kidding, right Phil?

5-0

[pphilfran]

You're kidding, right Phil?

5-0

Explain it...

If a home next door to you (exact home with same view) cost 250k and had no solar and I purchased the home and then spent 30k to install the solar the cost would be 280k...why would I buy your house for 320k?

[badger]

----The Hard Rock is in Catoosa

And the Dallas Cowboys are in Arlington, but you don't see them changing their name, hehe.


Standard of living low in Hawaii?

I believe it. I just saw some photos of Caribbean folks that are in Tropical Storm Issac's path. They live in the thatch roof cottages and run-down shacks. But, they also live on ocean-front property. So, it's hit-miss, I guess.

[okie52]

I am still trying to figure out how a 15k investment is solar panels on his home (30k prior to subsidy) increased his home value by 70k....

Hell I better go buy some.

[okie52]

You're right about wearing it out for our 6 little votes, but
FL, for example, there is NO air time left to buy. Here in
IA it'll ramp up more when the local races engage.

IMO, IA, FL, OH will decide the presidency. I still say
the electoral college needs to go!

Don't leave out VA and NC. But I agree, 6-7 states will decide it.

[pphilfran]

Hell I better go buy some.

His answer is going to be that he has an exclusive, one of a kind home....if that is the case it is not the solar panels it is the location...but if that is the case then you could raise the price and wait for the guy that is willing to overspend (he already would be overspending with the 15k solar panels) to get that exclusivity even without the panels....and that I could buy

[rock on sooner]

Don't leave out VA and NC. But I agree, 6-7 states will decide it.

Saw a summary on CNN the other day that given the states now
in Obama's column and those in Romney' with electoral votes,
the count is such that if Obama wins Florida, he would only have to
win IA and a state like WI and he's in. Sad state of affairs, it REALLY
should be based on popular vote and not the electoral college.

[okie52]

Saw a summary on CNN the other day that given the states now
in Obama's column and those in Romney' with electoral votes,
the count is such that if Obama wins Florida, he would only have to
win IA and a state like WI and he's in. Sad state of affairs, it REALLY
should be based on popular vote and not the electoral college.

Oh I'm back and forth on the popular vote vs electors. With the exception of the 2000 election the popular vote winner has won the election.

I think in the last election Obama won with a 6% margin over McCain. Yet I think McCain won 28 states to Obama's 22.

Selfishly I think it gives smaller states more power like OK and IA so I like that. If OK wasn't such a lock for Romney we would be getting the same
treatment as Iowa.

[pphilfran]

Oh I'm back and forth on the popular vote vs electors. With the exception of the 2000 election the popular vote winner has won the election.

I think in the last election Obama won with a 6% margin over McCain. Yet I think McCain won 28 states to Obama's 22.

Selfishly I think it gives smaller states more power like OK and IA so I like that. If OK wasn't such a lock for Romney we would be getting the same
treatment as Iowa.

is that correct?

[okie52]

is that correct?

I think so...I'm positive McCain won more states.

[pphilfran]

I think so...I'm positive McCain won more states.

I thought it would be much closer...surprised me...

[hawaii 5-0]

Explain it...

If a home next door to you (exact home with same view) cost 250k and had no solar and I purchased the home and then spent 30k to install the solar the cost would be 280k...why would I buy your house for 320k?


If I bought some stock for $10 and the stock market went up 200 points, why would I pay $15 for a stock that just yesterday was $10.

Why are some cars more valuable now then when they were originally for sale.

How come a gold dollar is worth a lot even tho it's only a dollar coin?

It's called value. Some things appreciate in value.

Ever heard of home flipping? Someone buys a fixer-upper for $50K, puts $10K into it and then resells it for $100K.

It's a matter of cost vs. value. If you bought a house for 250K and added solar (like mine) the value would be worth 320K.

5-0

[pphilfran]

If I bought some stock for $10 and the stock market went up 200 points, why would I pay $15 for a stock that just yesterday was $10.

Why are some cars more valuable now then when they were originally for sale.

How come a gold dollar is worth a lot even tho it's only a dollar coin?

It's called value. Some things appreciate in value.

Ever heard of home flipping? Someone buys a fixer-upper for $50K, puts $10K into it and then resells it for $100K.

It's a matter of cost vs. value. If you bought a house for 250K and added solar (like mine) the value would be worth 320K.

5-0

No way in hell...somebody fed you line of crap...adding 15 or 30k in upgrades will not increase the value of the home by itself...the other house would also appreciate with or without the solar...

[hawaii 5-0]

adding 15 or 30k in upgrades will not increase the value of the home by itself


Again.......you're kidding, right?


Please answer the other questions about the stock, car and $1 gold coin.

5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

Phil, I know you're a finance guy.

You gotta understand the difference between cost and value.

5-0

[pphilfran]

Again.......you're kidding, right?


Please answer the other questions about the stock, car and $1 gold coin.

5-0


5-0

You are saying your home will appreciate by 70k after a 15k investment (30k without subsidy) and the other exact home with view without solar will appreciate nothing...that is bunk...both home will appreciate the same...or within a gnats ***...you might gain some appreciation on the solar but it ain't gonna be 100% plus on the cost of the solar system...and then if the guy adds a similar capacity solar system at a later date the solar will cost less then the 30k you spent because prices will decrease significantly over time...and he will have a newer and more efficient system than yours...


You are completely off base on this, 50...completely off base...

You must also take into account the loss of investment appreciation on the 15k that you spent...that must go against all actual savings on the system...

You can feel good about saving some CO2 emissions and delaying the building of a power plant...but your net saving will be minimal at best...and without subsidies it is a definite net loss...

[cleller]

No way in hell...somebody fed you line of crap...adding 15 or 30k in upgrades will not increase the value of the home by itself...the other house would also appreciate with or without the solar...

Interesting argument. No way to no for sure without selling the house. I found this article that says adding solar panels increases the value of a home an average of 3.5%, enough to cover the cost of the installation. Its from California, though.
I sure wouldn't pay more for a home with solar than the cost of its installation. Some people probably would, though.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20088646-54/econ-101-solar-panels-increase-home-values/

[hawaii 5-0]

The spin isn't working.

Say you have 4 OU Texass tickets. They say $50 each face value and they're on the 40 yard line.

You sell 2 of them to a guy from OU who you don't know but don't want to rip off, for $50 each.

OU and Texass meet in October and they're ranked #1 and #2 (you really have to imagine Texass is #2).

The guy you sold the tickets to sells them to some Texass Alum with a fat wallet for $500 each .

But wait........those tickets are only worth $50, aren't they? That's what the tickets say right there on the ticket.

The value of the tickets went up. Market value in this case was $500 per ticket.

You still have zero profit, plus you have to sit next to a Texican.

The guy you sold the tickets to made $900. The tickets still say $50 each.

(the end of the story.........OU wins but you had to endure the whorn. The guy you sold your ticket to bought 2 other tickets from a guy for $50 each, sat on the 38 yard line with some cool dude who shared his Crown Royal.)

5-0

[pphilfran]

Interesting argument. No way to no for sure without selling the house. I found this article that says adding solar panels increases the value of a home an average of 3.5%, enough to cover the cost of the installation. Its from California, though.
I sure wouldn't pay more for a home with solar than the cost of its installation. Some people probably would, though.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20088646-54/econ-101-solar-panels-increase-home-values/

I am not saying my numbers are 100% accurate but his home will not immediately appreciate by 70k because he added a 15k system (30k prior to subsidy)..

He is saving 120 bucks a month on the electric bill...so his payback is 10 years...but he has lost the investment opportunity on the 15k so you has another 5 years or so to get that back...and that is with a subsidy...without the subsidy it would take upwards of 30 years to pay for the system..

And that doesn't even take into account the cost of solar declining over the years...

He can feel good about lowering CO2 emissions and slowing the building of another power plant but his overall savings over time are negligible...

[pphilfran]

The spin isn't working.

Say you have 4 OU Texass tickets. They say $50 each face value and they're on the 40 yard line.

You sell 2 of them to a guy from OU who you don't know but don't want to rip off, for $50 each.

OU and Texass meet in October and they're ranked #1 and #2 (you really have to imagine Texass is #2).

The guy you sold the tickets to sells them to some Texass Alum with a fat wallet for $500 each .

But wait........those tickets are only worth $50, aren't they? That's what the tickets say right there on the ticket.

The value of the tickets went up. Market value in this case was $500 per ticket.

You still have zero profit, plus you have to sit next to a Texican.

The guy you sold the tickets to made $900. The tickets still say $50 each.

(the end of the story.........OU wins but you had to endure the whorn. The guy you sold your ticket to bought 2 other tickets from a guy for $50 each, sat on the 38 yard line with some cool dude who shared his Crown Royal.)

5-0

We aint taling football tickets or cars or gold coins...

We are talking about home appreciation...and you are saying one home that is exactly the same other than solar will not appreciate a dime while yours will appreciate by 70k because you spent 15k...

You have lost your mind...

[pphilfran]

Let's try this...

Your home appreciates by 70k to 320k due to strictly installing solar panels...

The exact home next door appreciated nothing and is still selling for 250k since it does not have the panels installed...

Now, which would you buy...

Your home for 320k with solar panels installed
Or the exact same home next door for 250k without panels and then install a 30k solar system exactly the same as yours?

This is a tough one....get dem brain cells a workin'!

[cleller]

I've looked around for stories on the topic, but can only find the Berkeley one I cited before. It is also cited in this Forbes story on the subject. It does say that solar is about the best upgrade you can make, in that you can expect to get 97% of your investment back.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2011/08/01/how-much-do-solar-panels-boost-home-sale-prices/

Obviously, you can buy an awful house, make it look nice, and get a return higher than your outlay. As far as stuff like solar, kitchen remodels, etc, I've never heard anyone predict you could get more than you paid in a later sale. Your main benefit would seem to be the savings on energy you realize now, plus still recouping your costs on resale. Still a good deal.

[pphilfran]

I've looked around for stories on the topic, but can only find the Berkeley one I cited before. It is also cited in this Forbes story on the subject. It does say that solar is about the best upgrade you can make, in that you can expect to get 97% of your investment back.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2011/08/01/how-much-do-solar-panels-boost-home-sale-prices/

Obviously, you can buy an awful house, make it look nice, and get a return higher than your outlay. As far as stuff like solar, kitchen remodels, etc, I've never heard anyone predict you could get more than you paid in a later sale. Your main benefit would seem to be the savings on energy you realize now, plus still recouping your costs on resale. Still a good deal.

Thanks for looking...your info seems to back up my thoughts...

[hawaii 5-0]

Funny, I thought it made my point.

Solar is the best upgrade you can make to increase home value.

5-0

[pphilfran]

The spin isn't working.

Say you have 4 OU Texass tickets. They say $50 each face value and they're on the 40 yard line.

You sell 2 of them to a guy from OU who you don't know but don't want to rip off, for $50 each.

OU and Texass meet in October and they're ranked #1 and #2 (you really have to imagine Texass is #2).

The guy you sold the tickets to sells them to some Texass Alum with a fat wallet for $500 each .

But wait........those tickets are only worth $50, aren't they? That's what the tickets say right there on the ticket.

The value of the tickets went up. Market value in this case was $500 per ticket.

You still have zero profit, plus you have to sit next to a Texican.

The guy you sold the tickets to made $900. The tickets still say $50 each.

(the end of the story.........OU wins but you had to endure the whorn. The guy you sold your ticket to bought 2 other tickets from a guy for $50 each, sat on the 38 yard line with some cool dude who shared his Crown Royal.)

5-0


I will answer your questions...

OU/texas football tickets demand a premium because 200,000 peeps want to attend the game...there are less than 100,000 tickets available...those 200,000 people bid up the price on the ticket to an amount they are willing to pay...after the game the tickets are worthless

In your earlier post you mentioned some cars appreciate significantly..a split window Stingray in pristine condition is worth a small fortune...and it is worth a fortune because they are no longer manufactured and there are a limited amount of pristine cars available...just like the OU/texas tickets, the demand on the product far outstrips the supply so the price goes up to where the highest bidder is willing to go...unlike the OU/texas tickets there is no conceivable time in which it becomes worthless...unless it is totaled and you collect on the insurance...

The gold dollar is worth more than a dollar because it is made of...well...gold....gold is also in limited supply...all the gold in the world would fit in a cube about 60 ft on each side (something in that range)...it too appreciates due to heavy demand...and some believe that they are a hedge in case of massive currency devaluation...you could buy food or water or other products with that gold...somewhat questionable imo...but that is a completely different discussion...

Now, your solar panels, unlike the split window Vette, are still being manufactured...unlike the football tickets there are far more solar cells available than demand requires (subsidies and producers going bankrupt prove that fact)...and unlike gold you won't be able to trade your solar panels for food or other necessities...well, maybe somebody might want it but there would be millions available for trade...

Your solar panels are much more like a computer...the computers we are typing on today will be worth pennies on the dollar in 5 or 10 years..tech advances and manufacturing techniques will drive the price down to nearly worthless...if I buy a complete system (or solar panel system) today and keep it in it's original box we would find that in five or ten years it is going to be worth significantly less than the purchase price...

I am glad you feel all warm and fuzzy on the inside because of your purchase...it is a noble deed...but in 10 years when you can purchase a new, similar sized unit for 1/3 of your 15k subsidized price I would not expect you to see a quadruple on the sale of your used unit...

Your home appreciated 55k due to the home itself...not the solar unit...the solar unit added 15k to the price of the home...not a single penny more, and possibly less as less expensive and more efficient system come to market...

I hope this is a better explanation...if not, I will turn the discussion over to somebody else, if they have the patience...

[SoonerBread]

Phil, I know you're a finance guy.

You gotta understand the difference between cost and value.

5-0

The true value of something is only what someone is willing to pay you in order to obtain it. Or what you're willing to pay in order to obtain it.

You like comparisons, so try this one out: You put a $5000 CNG converter on your Chevy Camaro SS. Someone's gonna pay you $10000 more to own that one than one that is stock and doesn't have a CNG converter?

Your value of something may not match someone else's value of the same item.

[SoonerBread]

The true value of something is only what someone is willing to pay you in order to obtain it. Or what you're willing to pay in order to obtain it.

You like comparisons, so try this one out: You put a $5000 CNG converter on your Chevy Camaro SS. Someone's gonna pay you $10000 more to own that one than one that is stock and doesn't have a CNG converter?

Your value of something may not match someone else's value of the same item.

Sorry to quote my own post, but the emboldened part is why hybrid cars are very expensive, and don't sell well compared to their traditional RICE (reciprocating internal combustion engine) counterparts.

[Midtowner]

5-0, I hate to joint he chorus of those folks raining on your parade, but generally speaking, investments in home improvement give a pretty poor ROI unless you're talking about buying a crap house on the cheap and fixing basic things/updating it. Solar panels though? If you believed the salesman who told you that, I've got a ski boat on Lake Stanley Draper to sell ya.

[pphilfran]

Hot damn! I gotz a world class attorney on my side....

[TitoMorelli]

You guys are trying to explain economics to a guy who worries more about union members who finally may have to foot 10% of their health insurance costs than he does folks who must dumpster-dive for their daily meals?

[cleller]

The better investment would be a good gate with a Mighty Mule opener on it. After installing a couple of these, I might advise paying a premium for one.

[yermom]

who determines the value of the house?

how much more is a potential buyer going to pay to not have to deal with installing a solar power system in the house? how many people are going to buy a house and then have the money to lay out another $15K on top of the $250K they just borrowed to buy a house? how much more with the bank loan on a house that already has solar?

[pphilfran]

who determines the value of the house?

how much more is a potential buyer going to pay to not have to deal with installing a solar power system in the house? how many people are going to buy a house and then have the money to lay out another $15K on top of the $250K they just borrowed to buy a house? how much more with the bank loan on a house that already has solar?

A market study will determine the listing price...

The market will determine the ultimate selling price..

Folks might pay a small premium to not have to fool with the install...

You are correct that some people might be priced out of the later install...but they won't pay a huge premium of 35k to get that 15k system...keep in mind the 15k system will decline in price at time goes on...if you look at those installation sites they always talk about financing the system...

Keep in mind that the upfront costs of the system and the loss of earning potential on the money spent tend to eat up a significant amount of the monthly energy savings...you might save 200 a month on utilities but the costs eat up 180 of that (my est)

The bank will loan what the house is worth...and it will be worth about 15k more than the house without the system..

Good questions...in particular the one question about funds available after purchase...

[yermom]

so where did 5-0 get the $70K figure? from the solar panel installers?

[pphilfran]

so where did 5-0 get the $70K figure? from the solar panel installers?

Never said...