Las Vegas Odds to Win BCS Championship

[yukonsooner]

Sitting in Las Vegas and just checked the odds for the championship. OU is sitting at 10/1, Ala +500, LSU +400, USC +200. Around the conference: K St 55/1, osu 85/1,TCU 55/1, Tx 25/1, and WVA 32/1

[rock on sooner]

Help out a slow thinking ole man...what does +500 +400 mean?
Is that better than OU's 10/1?

[JLEW1818]

Help out a slow thinking ole man...what does +500 +400 mean?
Is that better than OU's 10/1?

+400 = 4/1 odds
Risk a dollar to win 4 dollars.

10/1 = +1000
Risk a dollar to win 10.

[VA Sooner]

Hmmm.... I like those odds.

[8timechamps]

I just can't wrap my head around USC being favored to win it all.

[Mazeppa]

I just can't wrap my head around USC being favored to win it all.

I take it you haven't been watching espn. Cause you haven't been brainwashed yet, usc is the (espn) flavor of the year.

[rock on sooner]

+400 = 4/1 odds
Risk a dollar to win 4 dollars.

10/1 = +1000
Risk a dollar to win 10.

Thanks, this slow ole man is grateful....

USC has an easy route...

[8timechamps]

I take it you haven't been watching espn. Cause you haven't been brainwashed yet, usc is the (espn) flavor of the year.

I've seen it, I just can't wrap my brain around it.

[BoulderSooner79]

I take it you haven't been watching espn. Cause you haven't been brainwashed yet, usc is the (espn) flavor of the year.

Could be, but the reasoning is sound.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

Vegas is very good at taking your money. Wish I knew how they know what they know....

OU at 10-1 odds tells me Vegas thinks we have a very good shot at only losing 1 or 2 (or none at all) games prior to the bowl/national championship.

I generally try not to be overly optimistic or pessimistic, but I think this year's squad just has 3-4 losses regular season written all over it:

I do not believe in Landry "Tweak" Jones, I think the offense is hamstrung by co-offensive coordinators, I don't think we have the necessary talent on defense (particularly on interior DL ), there still has to be at least some adjustment period to Mike, and our schedule is brutal. Clearly these are the pessimistic reasonings.

There are positives, I just don't think they outweigh the negatives. But for arguments sake, we have a strong OL (very good... just not great), at least a huge pool of bodies at all the offensive skill positions... enough so that I think we will eventually get the right combo of productive rb's and wr's, we have Trey Millard, solid LBs, and 3 out of the 4 DB positions manned by genuine studs (Colvin, Jefferson, Hurst), and with Mike at least we know he will be uncompromising when it comes to performance (that is, if someone ain't gettin' it done, he'll find someone that will...though that could take some time.) Kicking game should be a big plus this year with Way and Hunnicut.

But with all that... I still don't see us contending. Let's start with a seemingly easy one out of the gate: Does anyone see us winning on the road in Lubbock? It's like the hex K-State has on Texas. Things just get goofy in Lubbock, whether it is a concussion to Sam, or in two separate games getting utterly screwed by the officiating. And, they whipped our butts last year.

Ugh. I have no idea... that's why I never bet.

[starclassic tama]

I just can't wrap my head around USC being favored to win it all.this. their offense has looked really good, but i just dont see their defense being championship calibre.

[BoulderSooner79]

this. their offense has looked really good, but i just dont see their defense being championship calibre.

The 'SC defense was coming on at the end last season and they are returning a lot of talent. Stanford will be down and I think the Ducks will drop a bit too.

[BermudaSooner]

Vegas is very good at taking your money. Wish I knew how they know what they know....



Vegas doesn't "take your money" or know anything more than anybody else, Vegas takes everybody's money, takes out a vig (10% or so), then disperses the rest of the money to the winners. The odds are set based upon how much money people are betting on each outcome.

For example, if there were only 4 teams (4 outcomes), and the betting were as followings:

Alabama - $500 bet on Bama to win
OU - $300 bet on OU to win
Texas - $200 bet on Texas to win
USC - $100 bet on USC

Total is $1,100. Vegas clips $100. Pot is left with $1,000. Therefore, odds are:

Bama: 1:1 1,000/500 - 1
OU: 1,000/300 - 1 = 7:3
Texas: 1,000/200 - 1 = 4:1
USC 1,000/100 - 1 = 9:1

That way, no matter who wins, the pot goes to the winner, and Vegas makes their $100 for matching up those wanting to bet.

Vegas does set the initial odds to get the betting going, and therefore has to have some knowledge (wouldn't want to offer Toledo at 2:1 and OU at 250:1), but as money flows the odds change.

If a bunch of money then comes in on USC, all of the odds change.

[8timechamps]

The 'SC defense was coming on at the end last season and they are returning a lot of talent. Stanford will be down and I think the Ducks will drop a bit too.

Being in PAC country, I saw more SC than I wanted to last season. They are a talented group to be sure. However, I wasn't impressed with their defense at all. They are also very similar to OU last year, very thin in the two-deep. They have the offensive ability to win, but defense (while I'll agree that it got stronger) is still a question.

SC also had the (dare I say) "sneak up on 'em" factor last year. I don't think last year's team put fear in opponents like years past. They'll have a target on their backs this year, in what could be an overall improved PAC.

[8timechamps]

Vegas is very good at taking your money. Wish I knew how they know what they know....

OU at 10-1 odds tells me Vegas thinks we have a very good shot at only losing 1 or 2 (or none at all) games prior to the bowl/national championship.

I generally try not to be overly optimistic or pessimistic, but I think this year's squad just has 3-4 losses regular season written all over it:

I do not believe in Landry "Tweak" Jones, I think the offense is hamstrung by co-offensive coordinators, I don't think we have the necessary talent on defense (particularly on interior DL ), there still has to be at least some adjustment period to Mike, and our schedule is brutal. Clearly these are the pessimistic reasonings.

There are positives, I just don't think they outweigh the negatives. But for arguments sake, we have a strong OL (very good... just not great), at least a huge pool of bodies at all the offensive skill positions... enough so that I think we will eventually get the right combo of productive rb's and wr's, we have Trey Millard, solid LBs, and 3 out of the 4 DB positions manned by genuine studs (Colvin, Jefferson, Hurst), and with Mike at least we know he will be uncompromising when it comes to performance (that is, if someone ain't gettin' it done, he'll find someone that will...though that could take some time.) Kicking game should be a big plus this year with Way and Hunnicut.

But with all that... I still don't see us contending. Let's start with a seemingly easy one out of the gate: Does anyone see us winning on the road in Lubbock? It's like the hex K-State has on Texas. Things just get goofy in Lubbock, whether it is a concussion to Sam, or in two separate games getting utterly screwed by the officiating. And, they whipped our butts last year.

Ugh. I have no idea... that's why I never bet.

While I am not 100% confident we'll win in Lubbock, I am about 95% confident. There is no chance anyone on the team overlooks Tech this year. Outside of our trip to WVU (and the RRR), there isn't a team on our schedule that I think will beat us. Of course we're always at risk to lose a game we shouldn't, but if we show up for every game, we should win. Morgantown and Dallas are the two that spook me.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

While I am not 100% confident we'll win in Lubbock, I am about 95% confident. There is no chance anyone on the team overlooks Tech this year. Outside of our trip to WVU (and the RRR), there isn't a team on our schedule that I think will beat us. Of course we're always at risk to lose a game we shouldn't, but if we show up for every game, we should win. Morgantown and Dallas are the two that spook me.

If that is worst case scenario... I'd actually take it. Hate losing to the 'horns, and I'd love to get one back on the 'eers. But if payback on Tech, the LoSuRs, and stomping a mudhole in the domers is the reward? Again, I'll take it.

The one that has me spooked? Those effing domers. talk about your hexes... 1-8. It just seems like we are being set up for one of those "return to glory" ND moments. Which will make me puke if it happens.

[sooneron]

Am I wrong in thinking that UTerus should have longer odds than WV??? WTF? WV returns all of their stud weapons. I don't get it.

[BoulderSooner79]

Being in PAC country, I saw more SC than I wanted to last season. They are a talented group to be sure. However, I wasn't impressed with their defense at all. They are also very similar to OU last year, very thin in the two-deep. They have the offensive ability to win, but defense (while I'll agree that it got stronger) is still a question.

SC also had the (dare I say) "sneak up on 'em" factor last year. I don't think last year's team put fear in opponents like years past. They'll have a target on their backs this year, in what could be an overall improved PAC.

I live in PAC country too (3 miles from Palo Alto) and I'm just not impressed with the PAC overall. 'SC is the only team plays some sort of defense. Stanford has recruited well, but lost a bunch to graduation and I'm not sold on the new coach. UO has talent, but also is replacing key starters. I'm just saying I understand why people think 'SC has the team and favorable schedule to get the title game, but anything can happen. And 'SC is like OU - they always wear a target.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

Am I wrong in thinking that UTerus should have longer odds than WV??? WTF? WV returns all of their stud weapons. I don't get it.

That has to be a function of defense vs. no defense. WV this year could well be Baylor of last year. They'll score points by the bushel... but it still could be a 3 loss season because they can't stop anyone either. Tejas, on the other hand, will have a stout D to contend with, and they will be improved on O simply because of maturation, if nothing else. I don't see them setting the world on fire on O, but they should be steadier/more solid than they have the last 2 years.

[8timechamps]

I live in PAC country too (3 miles from Palo Alto) and I'm just not impressed with the PAC overall. 'SC is the only team plays some sort of defense. Stanford has recruited well, but lost a bunch to graduation and I'm not sold on the new coach. UO has talent, but also is replacing key starters. I'm just saying I understand why people think 'SC has the team and favorable schedule to get the title game, but anything can happen. And 'SC is like OU - they always wear a target.

I think it's more about not being impressed with the PAC. I like watching UO play, just because it's up tempo. There is no question SC has the talent to win it all, but we did too going into last year.

Looking at their schedule, there appears to be four legitimate games they could get a quality opponent:

1. 9/15 @ Stanford - I think Stanford will see a drop off this season, but I'm sure they will be fired up to host SC. Plus, this is an early season match-up, so it should be interesting.

2. 11/3 Oregon - They get the Ducks at home this time, so Chip will have to get his boys extra motivated to give SC a game.

3. 11/24 Notre Dame - While I don't think ND will have much of a team, there's something to be said for the rivalry and playing up to your opponent.

4. PAC Championship - As long as it's not a repeat of last year's poor UCLA team, could make for an interesting game.

I think Washington is a dark horse this year. Seems like Sark has slowly improved that program, and this may be the year they break out. If that's the case, October 13th could be worth watching (and it's in Washington).

[8timechamps]

If that is worst case scenario... I'd actually take it. Hate losing to the 'horns, and I'd love to get one back on the 'eers. But if payback on Tech, the LoSuRs, and stomping a mudhole in the domers is the reward? Again, I'll take it.

The one that has me spooked? Those effing domers. talk about your hexes... 1-8. It just seems like we are being set up for one of those "return to glory" ND moments. Which will make me puke if it happens.

ND has a legitimately tough schedule this year, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them limp into Norman with 3 or 4 losses. If they somehow get through the first 7 games with zero or one loss, it could set up to be an epic game. I hope that's not the case.

[BoulderSooner79]

I think it's more about not being impressed with the PAC. I like watching UO play, just because it's up tempo. There is no question SC has the talent to win it all, but we did too going into last year.

Looking at their schedule, there appears to be four legitimate games they could get a quality opponent:

1. 9/15 @ Stanford - I think Stanford will see a drop off this season, but I'm sure they will be fired up to host SC. Plus, this is an early season match-up, so it should be interesting.

2. 11/3 Oregon - They get the Ducks at home this time, so Chip will have to get his boys extra motivated to give SC a game.

3. 11/24 Notre Dame - While I don't think ND will have much of a team, there's something to be said for the rivalry and playing up to your opponent.

4. PAC Championship - As long as it's not a repeat of last year's poor UCLA team, could make for an interesting game.

I think Washington is a dark horse this year. Seems like Sark has slowly improved that program, and this may be the year they break out. If that's the case, October 13th could be worth watching (and it's in Washington).

USC and UCLA are in the same division and 'SC beat them 50-0 last year (exit Neuheisel). UCLA was in the CCG because of the USC probation which has now expired. The fact UCLA got in shows how bad the south division is. 'SC would have played a rematch against the Ducks who they beat in Eugene had they been eligible. That could well happen this year.

[8timechamps]

USC and UCLA are in the same division and 'SC beat them 50-0 last year (exit Neuheisel). UCLA was in the CCG because of the USC probation which has now expired. The fact UCLA got in shows how bad the south division is. 'SC would have played a rematch against the Ducks who they beat in Eugene had they been eligible. That could well happen this year.

I had forgotten about the whole USC probation/UCLA getting into the championship game thing. Can we go ahead and pencil SC/Oregon in for the championship game?

[soonerboy_odanorth]

I had forgotten about the whole USC probation/UCLA getting into the championship game thing. Can we go ahead and pencil SC/Oregon in for the championship game?

Nope...I'm going to pick up on your previous point. Good one re: Sark and Washington. That is definitely worth watching. Especially as Keith Price, not Barkley, might be the best QB in the Pac12.

[goingoneight]

Maybe Vegas can tell us who will be injured like Andre Ware did.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

Maybe Vegas can tell us who will be injured like Andre Ware did.

Not following. My sarcasm filter not set properly? I thought Ware's point about us in 2009 was that we lost our entire o-line from '08. And that turned out to have a lot of validity... since it contributed to Sam's bang up and all.

(P.S. I thought we were in trouble the second the Gresham news broke. No safety valve for Sam in the case the o-line did break down....)

[8timechamps]

Nope...I'm going to pick up on your previous point. Good one re: Sark and Washington. That is definitely worth watching. Especially as Keith Price, not Barkley, might be the best QB in the Pac12.

I must be getting old, I can't keep up with what I said from one post to the next. I agree that Washington should make a push. I think Pete Carroll was responsible for getting the talent to SC, but I think Sark was the reason they won.

[BoulderSooner79]

Washington was 11th out of 12 in total defense last year. They will have to really improve on that to contend this year. They made our defensive effort against Baylor appear to be outstanding.

[8timechamps]

Washington was 11th out of 12 in total defense last year. They will have to really improve on that to contend this year. They made our defensive effort against Baylor appear to be outstanding.

A lot can change in a year. I'm not saying they will be in the national title picture, but I do think they will make some noise in the PAC.

[ouflak]

This may be calling for a vBet to appear in the coming weeks. May have to wait for recruiting to finalize....