Diver, one of my pizz ant indicator charts is at a critical junction

[pphilfran]

What do you think?

My GDP/industrial electrical usage chart has a new month of data coming out later next week.

I have been charting this thing for about 5 years...and it shows Feb data as being the bottom each year other than the recession where usage hit bottom in Nov of the prior year...

The last data point on the blue line is the Feb number...based on the history we should see usage climb 3 or 4% in March...that happens every year...

Now, this would be just another year except... this year GDP contracted from Feb to Mar...(at least according to these guys..this is where all the monthly data comes from http://www.e-forecasting.com/US_Monthly_GDP.html)

You can see the contraction in GDP which is the red line

The dotted purple line is the original Fed quarterly forecast broken down into monthly data (again, done by the guys at e forcasting)..I wish I had the initial numbers going back further in history but I didn't think about it till later...that number should also be out this week...

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/gdp81-0933-1.jpg

[OULenexaman]

I think you made his head hurt.

[sappstuf]

I just saw that the quarterly GDP was reduced to 1.9%...

[pphilfran]

I just saw that the quarterly GDP was reduced to 1.9%...

Nothing yet of the monthly number that is calculated from the quarterly numbers...

The electrical usage is out and it had the normal increase...up to 80694...that chart is looking good...stair stepping up...not nearly fast enough but at least it is going in the right direction...

When I get the new GDP numbers I will update the chart and post it here...I know, big deal....:)

It looks as if the lackluster expansion is going to continue....

[pphilfran]

Thanks for the update...yep, down from an initial 2.2...

A bad day...lowered GDP...crappy jobless numbers..corp earnings only climbed 0.6%, the smallest since the first quarter of 2008...

[diverdog]

Thanks for the update...yep, down from an initial 2.2...

A bad day...lowered GDP...crappy jobless numbers..corp earnings only climbed 0.6%, the smallest since the first quarter of 2008...

Phil:

I really do not know what to make of your chart. I guess you can somehow argue that industrial electrical usage could affect GDP. Tracking both consumer and business usage might show a better correlation.

Our economist think 2% is about all we can expect. What has surprised them is the resiliancy of the GDP numbers with the crisis in Europe. I think that problem is starting to hit us.

[dwarthog]

I believe he is tracking industrial electrical usage as an indicator to show that the "industrial" side of the economy is seeing increased levels of activity which ostensibly indicate increased factory demand and associated growth etc., probably a decent way to "sanity" check claims that the the economy is on the right path.

[8timechamps]

Nothing yet of the monthly number that is calculated from the quarterly numbers...

The electrical usage is out and it had the normal increase...up to 80694...that chart is looking good...stair stepping up...not nearly fast enough but at least it is going in the right direction...

When I get the new GDP numbers I will update the chart and post it here...I know, big deal....:)

It looks as if the lackluster expansion is going to continue....

Give them a minute...Greece is going to put an end to that.

[pphilfran]

I believe he is tracking industrial electrical usage as an indicator to show that the "industrial" side of the economy is seeing increased levels of activity which ostensibly indicate increased factory demand and associated growth etc., probably a decent way to "sanity" check claims that the the economy is on the right path.

That is it in a nutshell...

[Chuck Bao]

As an economist, I used to closely track large-scale electricity usage as the best and most reliable short-term indicator of economic health. In Thailand, large-scale users are primarily comprised of industrial, commercial buildings and large shopping malls/modern trade stores. Besides being reliable, the numbers would come out relatively fast compared to other economic indicators or estimates. Also, large-scale users involved much less seasonality/weather related factors than medium or small users, which are much more residential. Year-on-year comparisons would take out seasonality, but not necessarily the weather.

[pphilfran]

duplicate

[pphilfran]

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/eleclt2.jpg

[cleller]

Lets hope that "green" energy saving advances may have lessened demand for electricity some.

[pphilfran]

There will be some improvements that lower demand but it will be a very slow process over a long period of time..

These next couple of months will be critical in regards to the economy and Obama's chances of reelection...

The jobs numbers that just came out were terrible...69k created...8.2% unemployment

[sappstuf]

There will be some improvements that lower demand but it will be a very slow process over a long period of time..

These next couple of months will be critical in regards to the economy and Obama's chances of reelection...

The jobs numbers that just came out were terrible...69k created...8.2% unemployment

And they revised down the number of jobs created in March and April by 49k...

[pphilfran]

The trends are not good...China manufacturing rate slowing...Eurozone unemployment at 11%,,,crude price tanking...

Cards are showing another recession in our near future...

[8timechamps]

The trends are not good...China manufacturing rate slowing...Eurozone unemployment at 11%,,,crude price tanking...

Cards are showing another recession in our near future...

Eurozone at a record high in unemployment, Spain not far behind Greece. There is a real chance Greece will throw the Eurozone banking into a complete free-fall.

It could get bad (as if it's great right now).

[sappstuf]

Don't worry Obama is all over this issue...

He attended 6 fundraisers on Friday!

[diverdog]

Eurozone at a record high in unemployment, Spain not far behind Greece. There is a real chance Greece will throw the Eurozone banking into a complete free-fall.

It could get bad (as if it's great right now).

The banking sector is a real mess and I fear it is going to spread globally. The US is trying to derisk its exposure to their bonds and commercial paper and I hope this happens soon or it could hit money markets hard.

[soonercoop1]

The banking sector is a real mess and I fear it is going to spread globally. The US is trying to derisk its exposure to their bonds and commercial paper and I hope this happens soon or it could hit money markets hard.

Still haven't fixed the derivative problem after a trillion or more bailout...endless money printing and allowing banks to purchase treasury notes/bonds etc without showing them on the books should help...not!

How could all this result in anything other than a complete collapse?

Any answers?

[Chuck Bao]

Still haven't fixed the derivative problem after a trillion or more bailout...endless money printing and allowing banks to purchase treasury notes/bonds etc without showing them on the books should help...not!

How could all this result in anything other than a complete collapse?

Any answers?

That is definitely part of the problem. The big banks in New York and London can sell the debt and serve as an enabler for any government worldwide looking for a quick fix. Short the currency or proxies when the inevitable happens. Buy back just ahead of announced negotiations on debt resolution. Then sell within a week just before the negotiations fall through. They're using net interest income made on depositors money to finance their shenanigans. It's obscene. It's unethical. It's insider trading. It's illegal.

I know the concept of "smart money". But this so-called smart money is destroying confidence in our market system, as is the moral hazard of "too big to fail". Why hasn't there been reform of Wall Street?