College Football's Future Landscape

[8timechamps]

With the news of the Big XII/SEC partnership today, and the soon-to-be playoff, I think a few big dominoes will fall in the next 12-24 months:

1. Notre Dame will have it's hand forced to join a conference - With every passing year, ND falls lower on the college football totem poll. At one time, they were arguably the hottest brand in the game (during the initial NBC contract). Now, there is a real chance they could be left out of a playoff simply because they are independent. I just don't see any way ND factors in a play-off unless they have an undefeated season (or possibly one loss depending on the rest of the top 5 or 10). It may not happen in the next year, but the time is coming for ND to hitch it's wagon to a football conference.

2. Good-bye ACC/Big East: When the play-off discussions got serious, the writing was on the wall. The ACC, 9 times out of 10, isn't going to beat out the SEC, Big XII, Pac 12 or Big 10 for a spot in the play-offs. Now with the Big XII/SEC bowl (and the Rose Bowl), the ACC is the odd man out. At this point, any football school in the ACC or Big East that wants to land a future spot in a play-off field, has to take a serious look at joining one of the big 4. FSU, Clemson and Louisville are the leading contenders...but I think the ACC is now living on borrowed time.

3. Each of the Big 4 will go to 14 member football conferences. The SEC is already there, now it's time for the Big XII to be pro-active. The PAC 12 is going to have trouble adding two addition (quality) teams...and they may kick themselves for the OU/Texas fiasco. The Big 10 sits in a decent position to add additional programs (based solely on location), but the Big XII is primed to bring in teams like FSU, Clemson and Louisville.

Of course all of this is just MY speculation...but college football, as we knew it, is over. I contend that it started with the advent of the BCS, but regardless of when it started, it has changed and will continue that way.

[badger]

Interesting thoughts.


1. Notre Dame will have it's hand forced to join a conference

Notre Dame did itself in... by losing too much. If it won as much as Oklahoma, some SEC programs or hell, even as much as Bois Estate, it could remain independent forever. Alas, they SUCK. Remember when famous alum after famous alum was visiting campus to try to rally it's 0-fer football team under Walrus Weis? Remember when Walrus Weis decided to start a new tradition where Navy and Domer stood around for each other's alma mater after the game, probably thinking that would make the first victory of the season even sweeter? Remember when Navy beat them anyways and it made the loss even more ugly for Domer? LOL.


2. Good-bye ACC/Big East
Not necessarily. If they have a team as dominant as scUM used to be before the ACC move, there's no way the system can ignore them.


3. Each of the Big 4 will go to 14 member football conferences.
Interesting... the SEC is already there, but who does the Pac 12, Big Ten and Big 12 add? Will they raid the ACC and Big East? Might be a fun poll topic next week.

[8timechamps]

Interesting thoughts.



Notre Dame did itself in... by losing too much. If it won as much as Oklahoma, some SEC programs or hell, even as much as Bois Estate, it could remain independent forever. Alas, they SUCK. Remember when famous alum after famous alum was visiting campus to try to rally it's 0-fer football team under Walrus Weis? Remember when Walrus Weis decided to start a new tradition where Navy and Domer stood around for each other's alma mater after the game, probably thinking that would make the first victory of the season even sweeter? Remember when Navy beat them anyways and it made the loss even more ugly for Domer? LOL.


Not necessarily. If they have a team as dominant as scUM used to be before the ACC move, there's no way the system can ignore them.


Interesting... the SEC is already there, but who does the Pac 12, Big Ten and Big 12 add? Will they raid the ACC and Big East? Might be a fun poll topic next week.

Totally agree with your assessment of Notre Dame (and the predicament they find themselves in).

The ACC/Big East won't actually die, but I think that has more to do with basketball than football. UM could help hold the conference together, but at this point, I think UM is just trying to keep a team eligible to play. There are enough decent teams left between the two (assuming FSU, Clemson and Louisville bolt) to join and have an "okay" conference (VT, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, etc.). But not enough to match any of the big 4.

I suppose it's possible that all the conferences stay at their current size, just seems highly unlikely.

There is an article on ESPN.com that calls today "Day 1 in college footballs Armageddon". Seems sensationalized, but maybe not far from the truth.

[picasso]

That's just because ESPN wants to act like they support everyone, including the little guy, in getting a chance at the BCS title.
That's why they hold the SEC's nutsack every season. heh.

[ouflak]

I doubt that the ACC and Big East cease to exist. It's just looking like they will no longer be big players (ala AQ) in football that they once could be. Some bigger football schools, especially those aspiring for a spot in the playoff, will have to make some hard decisions in the next couple of years.

And I don't think we need to feel sorry for the ACC and Big East. There is still a lot of big money in basketball. Not football big money, but still BIG money. The NCAA didn't just ink a 10.8 billion dollar media deal for just the NCAA tournament rights alone because CBS and ESPN were feeling charitable. They'll be fine.

Plus eventually, this playoff is going to expand, especially after the money starts rolling in. If there aren't a lot of more re-alignment shifts in the next 3 years or so, it could just turn into a waiting game for that inevitable playoff expansion. And I think Notre Dame knows it can probably afford to wait (unfortunately). This expansion, say to 8 teams, could easily occur within the first 5 years of the playoff. That would certainly open the way for teams like Notre Dame, BYU and Boise State/Big East team to atleast have a shot at getting in. If this expansion does not occur, say within 10 years, then yeah, several programs are going to be pretty much forever screwed. I think Notre Dame, with its fanatical alumni base, large endowment just for sports, and its own TV contract, can probably putter along just fine forever outside looking in. But teams not in the four football conferences, and/or possibly the ACC as it stands now, are going to just have to scale back their football programs and concentrate on other things (basketball, academics, etc...).

[Jacie]

The only part of your assessment i differ with is i see the big 4 conferences expanding to 16 teams each.

[alabama sooner]

Though unlikely, there is one other possibility that might rear its head. What if the strength of the B12/SEC partnership with the new Champions Bowl was calculated to give both conferences the power to turn down the 4-team playoff if the discussions bog down because of Big 10 and PAC 12 (and possibly even ND) demands?

Add to that the growing probability of the B12 strengthened by at least 2, if not 4 or more, ACC football schools.

If the B12/SEC partnership wants, they can torpedo the 4-team playoff and revert to the mythical National Championships that existed before the BCS. And with the additions of FSU and Clemson or VT the Champions Bowl would be the most relevant bowl in the country, the bowl from which most future champions would be taken. What could the diluted perceptions of even the PAC 12 and Big 10 do about it? Nothing unless the Big 10 brings in ND (who still is not truly relevant until they start winning again). Of course, I cannot bad mouth ND too much, they bring in television viewers and still (like OU) could find their own Bob Stoops miracle worker. Which means their greed for 3rd tier rights and independence will bring them to us anyway. And we would gladly take them.

[Sabanball]

As I said in a related thread, we are headed to 4 Super Conferences.

[8timechamps]

The only part of your assessment i differ with is i see the big 4 conferences expanding to 16 teams each.

I can agree with that. But, I think the initial increase will be to 14.

[8timechamps]

Though unlikely, there is one other possibility that might rear its head. What if the strength of the B12/SEC partnership with the new Champions Bowl was calculated to give both conferences the power to turn down the 4-team playoff if the discussions bog down because of Big 10 and PAC 12 (and possibly even ND) demands?

Add to that the growing probability of the B12 strengthened by at least 2, if not 4 or more, ACC football schools.

If the B12/SEC partnership wants, they can torpedo the 4-team playoff and revert to the mythical National Championships that existed before the BCS. And with the additions of FSU and Clemson or VT the Champions Bowl would be the most relevant bowl in the country, the bowl from which most future champions would be taken. What could the diluted perceptions of even the PAC 12 and Big 10 do about it? Nothing unless the Big 10 brings in ND (who still is not truly relevant until they start winning again). Of course, I cannot bad mouth ND too much, they bring in television viewers and still (like OU) could find their own Bob Stoops miracle worker. Which means their greed for 3rd tier rights and independence will bring them to us anyway. And we would gladly take them.

At this point, I don't think anything is crazy. I do, however, think that the SEC/Big XII just took the first shot in the soon-to-be kaos realigning of CFB.

But, I do agree that this announcement didn't include what's really going on behind the door. We already had an SEC/Big XII bowl, and rarely would there ever be a year if either a Big XII champion team, or an SEC champion team wouldn't be in a playoff, so I'm kinda starting to this this new bowl will have a connection with a playoff (with the Rose Bowl on the other side). It will get interesting.

[ashley]

ND was done in by it's location. It is cold, small, not much to do and the girls all look like Margret Thatcher. The talent is in the south and they want to play in good weather where the girls are pretty and the games are big.