My 2012 Electoral Prediction

[SicEmBaylor]

In March of '08, I posted the following thread here on SF's (http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?109785-Electoral-College-Map&highlight=obama) with my prediction for the upcoming election...this was based on the assumption that Obama would win the Democratic nomination which was far from certain at that point. I was pretty damned close considering how far off we were.

Romney has, for all intents and purposes, now won the Republican nomination; therefore, I think the time is right to make my November 2012 predictions. I'll probably do this once more when we get much closer to the election.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v313/SicEmBaylor/prediction2012.jpg

The biggest uncertainties in my mind are Virginia and Colorado. I feel pretty good about OH going Obama and Florida going Romney.

[diverdog]

Here is my prediction. RPG III will be the next great QB flop and they will run him out of town in 2014. :playful:

[SicEmBaylor]

Here is my prediction. RPG III will be the next great QB flop and they will run him out of town in 2014. :playful:

I don't know who this RPG III is, but he must suck if I've never heard of him.

[OU_Sooners75]

Here is mine:



http://i46.tinypic.com/23m5wkg.jpg

[okie52]

I wonder if Romney will win mass...hope so.

[hawaii 5-0]

I wonder if Romney will win mass...hope so.


I was wondering the same thing.

Is that moderate Republican governor the same as this year's GOP nominee for POTUS? I'm not sure he would even win the governorship right now. He's not the same man now.

5-0

[diverdog]

I don't know who this RPG III is, but he must suck if I've never heard of him.

Sorry I always add the "P" because he took of like a rocket propelled grenade against OU.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/33/RPG-7_detached.jpg/300px-RPG-7_detached.jpg

[SicEmBaylor]

Sorry I always add the "P" because he took of like a rocket propelled grenade against OU.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/33/RPG-7_detached.jpg/300px-RPG-7_detached.jpg
LOL. Awesome.

[ouwasp]

How much of a longshot is it that NJ might swing to the GOP?

[SicEmBaylor]

How much of a longshot is it that NJ might swing to the GOP?

I think Obama wins NJ by between 4-6 pts.

[okie52]

I was wondering the same thing.

Is that moderate Republican governor the same as this year's GOP nominee for POTUS? I'm not sure he would even win the governorship right now. He's not the same man now.

5-0

He wouldn't have been the GOP nominee if he was the same man although I wasn't particularly familiar with his work as gov.

[hawaii 5-0]

He wouldn't have been the GOP nominee if he was the same man although I wasn't particularly familiar with his work as gov.


Mostly what I recall is his work on socialized medicine (Romneycare) and his stand against assault weapons.

5-0

[yermom]

and for abortion

[Curly Bill]

In my eyes the best thing Romney has going for him is he's not Brack. He is in other words: the lesser of two evils.

Pretty shameful that in the USofA Brack and Romney are our choices for POTUS.

[okie52]

In my eyes the best thing Romney has going for him is he's not Brack. He is in other words: the lesser of two evils.

Pretty shameful that in the USofA Brack and Romney are our choices for POTUS.

Pretty much my view since Romney has flipped on several issues...although I really don't care about most social issues when compared to economic ones.

[lexsooner]

In March of '08, I posted the following thread here on SF's (http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?109785-Electoral-College-Map&highlight=obama) with my prediction for the upcoming election...this was based on the assumption that Obama would win the Democratic nomination which was far from certain at that point. I was pretty damned close considering how far off we were.

Romney has, for all intents and purposes, now won the Republican nomination; therefore, I think the time is right to make my November 2012 predictions. I'll probably do this once more when we get much closer to the election.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v313/SicEmBaylor/prediction2012.jpg

The biggest uncertainties in my mind are Virginia and Colorado. I feel pretty good about OH going Obama and Florida going Romney.

This appears to be very accurate. Romney has a real uphill battle. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are leaning towards Obama and Romney has to wrest two of those three states away, as well as win Florida, which is considered a toss up (although I agree that Romney will probably win Fla.). As is often the case, it comes down to two candidates who evoke luke warm feelings from swing voters. Right now, it looks like the economy may be improving just enough and Obama comes off as just competent and trustworthy enough to those voters that he will be re-elected. Yes, there is an element, including many posters on this board who hate his guts, but those voters will not decide the election.

[KantoSooner]

Precisely. If any legitimate candidate had been fielded by the GOP, they'd have won by 20 points. But they've now compounded a weak field of candidates by forcing them to pander to the lunatic fringe of the Republican party for six months so that the latino vote, 100% of female independents and probably somewhere north of 25% of Republican women will vote Democrat. Increasingly, Romney is looking at electoral math that requires him to win 100% of everything else that's up for grabs to stand a puncher's chance.

It's sad, really. But, until the GOP abandons the cheap methamphetamine of social wedge issues, they aren't going be able to showcase economics and foreign policy. Mind you, since so many of the party elders came of age after Nixon's 'Southern Strategy' came to dominate the party's thinking, there probably aren't too many senior Republicans left who even remember what the party once looked like and honestly feel that minding their neighbors' sex habits is a legitimate public policy goal.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

Precisely. If any legitimate candidate had been fielded by the GOP, they'd have won by 20 points. But they've now compounded a weak field of candidates by forcing them to pander to the lunatic fringe of the Republican party for six months so that the latino vote, 100% of female independents and probably somewhere north of 25% of Republican women will vote Democrat. Increasingly, Romney is looking at electoral math that requires him to win 100% of everything else that's up for grabs to stand a puncher's chance.

It's sad, really. But, until the GOP abandons the cheap methamphetamine of social wedge issues, they aren't going be able to showcase economics and foreign policy. Mind you, since so many of the party elders came of age after Nixon's 'Southern Strategy' came to dominate the party's thinking, there probably aren't too many senior Republicans left who even remember what the party once looked like and honestly feel that minding their neighbors' sex habits is a legitimate public policy goal.haha, who in your mind would have been a legit candidate?

[pphilfran]

I predict Ok will go red...

[SicEmBaylor]

I predict Ok will go red...
Bold!

[okie52]

I predict Ok will go red...

I'll predict Obama doesnt win a county in OK.

[olevetonahill]

I'll predict Obama doesnt win a county in OK.

I think he gets one er two this time, But the State will go Romney.
Which Amuses the hell out of me when all these Obama Fans start runnin down Romey and then telling US how Great BoB is.
Who GAF. . Nothing we do or say here in Oklahoma will change a dayum thing in the Outcome of this election .

[okie52]

I think he gets one er two this time, But the State will go Romney.
Which Amuses the hell out of me when all these Obama Fans start runnin down Romey and then telling US how Great BoB is.
Who GAF. . Nothing we do or say here in Oklahoma will change a dayum thing in the Outcome of this election .

Nope, our 7 electors won't make a big dent in the 270 needed to win....but I'm still confident of another shutout of Hussein even though he actually came to the state this year.

[olevetonahill]

Nope, our 7 electors won't make a big dent in the 270 needed to win....but I'm still confident of another shutout of Hussein even though he actually came to the state this year.

Yea Id Love to see Ok. Give ole BoB another big **** off dip ****

[soonercoop1]

Precisely. If any legitimate candidate had been fielded by the GOP, they'd have won by 20 points. But they've now compounded a weak field of candidates by forcing them to pander to the lunatic fringe of the Republican party for six months so that the latino vote, 100% of female independents and probably somewhere north of 25% of Republican women will vote Democrat. Increasingly, Romney is looking at electoral math that requires him to win 100% of everything else that's up for grabs to stand a puncher's chance.

It's sad, really. But, until the GOP abandons the cheap methamphetamine of social wedge issues, they aren't going be able to showcase economics and foreign policy. Mind you, since so many of the party elders came of age after Nixon's 'Southern Strategy' came to dominate the party's thinking, there probably aren't too many senior Republicans left who even remember what the party once looked like and honestly feel that minding their neighbors' sex habits is a legitimate public policy goal.

Whats really funny is that Repubs only win Pres when they run a true conservative national campaign...thats why they lose this one as it seems the establishment doesn't really want to win the Presidency...

[Sooner5030]

The only reason why I still vote is because of the importance of SCOTUS. Otherwise it doesn't really matter, our annual gubment operations are funded using incremental budgeting so the prior year's base is almost always safe. Romney or Obama will both have +1 trillion deficits, +46 million receiving SNAP, 10,000 baby boomers/day retiring, continued intrusive intervention into our daily lives until we are required to have permits to inhale.

[XingTheRubicon]

Romney wins by 6 points. I said this before Iowa and nothing has really changed.

[lexsooner]

I foresee a close popular vote count. Neither candidate is popular enough for a landslide. At this point, Obama has the clear edge. One dependable axiom in politics is the candidate with more money and resources will win. Obama has a vast war chest, much greater than Romney's, and even though Romney will have much more Super PAC money behind him, it still does not match Obama's resources. Assuming the popular vote is close, Obama has the edge in terms of the electoral map. The west coast, northern states, and the northeast are virtual locks for him, so he just needs to hold onto Ohio and Pennsylvania and he is over 270. Romney has far fewer potential pathways to victory. To get to 270, he must win Florida, and of Ohio, Penn., and Virginia, he has to win two of those three which are currenty leaning towards Obama. I sure am glad I don't live in any of those states where there will be nothing but Presidential ads for the next seven months.

[The Profit]

Obama will have over 300 electoral votes. Closer than last time, but 4 more years, nevertheless.

[Bourbon St Sooner]

Obama just needs to be on the phone with Merkel to make sure the bailout money keeps flowing in Europe. A Greece, Spain, Italy default domino and the ensuing economic calamity is about the only thing that can sink him at this point. The devil you know, you know.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

http://johnellis.blogspot.com/2012/05/ellisblog-electoral-map.html

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D2JbgPvPYQE/T7QLj6fEXaI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/6zkyUschXTM/s1600/Screen%2Bshot%2B2012-05-15%2Bat%2B2.24.43%2BPM.png

[hawaii 5-0]

I predict the Republican VP nominee will be vetted a little better than Sarah Palin.


5-0

[diverdog]

http://johnellis.blogspot.com/2012/05/ellisblog-electoral-map.html

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D2JbgPvPYQE/T7QLj6fEXaI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/6zkyUschXTM/s1600/Screen%2Bshot%2B2012-05-15%2Bat%2B2.24.43%2BPM.png

Looks about right. It will boil down to Ohio, PA and Florida. If Europe tanks and the US follows into a recession in the fall Obama is toast. I think that is very likely to happen. The recent data on US confidence is not good. I also think Romney will run a little more to the center and pick a VP from either Ohio or Florida.

[XingTheRubicon]

Oregon is just a lean?


Lumberjacks in the east?

[lexsooner]

Oregon is just a lean?


Lumberjacks in the east?

I thought this guy was a political consultant at first, but this appears to be some John Q. Citizen's blog. Many of his predictions are pure speculation and not based on anything credible, like recent polling.

[badger]

Oregon is just a lean?


Lumberjacks in the east?

Did Ralph Nader declare his candidacy without anyone knowing it? If so, Oregon would TOTALLY vote green. :D

[yermom]

Oregon is just a lean?


Lumberjacks in the east?

east of the mountains, it's basically Idaho

[SicEmBaylor]

Anyone with even the most rudimentary 8th grade civics education should be able to fill out an electoral map with the current safe Republican/Democrat states and the toss-ups. A friend of mine posted a map that Karl Rove did the other day that was exactly the same as anyone else's map of toss-ups and swing states....you don't have to get paid the big bucks to come up with that ****.

[SicEmBaylor]

:::bump:::

[JohnnyMack]

:::bump:::

You're like Nate Silver, only poorer.



And uglier.

[XingTheRubicon]

:::bump:::



You were wrong.

[SicEmBaylor]

You're like Nate Silver, only poorer.



And uglier.
Somehow I had never heard of this guy until a week ago when someone on NPR was practically rubbing him off in an interview.

[SicEmBaylor]

You were wrong.

lol, I was pretty damned close. I was only wrong about Iowa (and honestly I can't remember exactly what caused me to think Iowa would flip) and possibly Florida although that remains to be seen.

[FaninAma]

I was correct about the electoral college but thought Romney would do better in the popular vote.