Anyone selling? (stocks)

[pphilfran]

That's the rub^^.

What CAN you do to stay ahead of inflation? The Fed has rigged the system to try and force you to buy stocks. Nothing else has a yield. In hindsight, rural land in these parts would have been a great play, but it even that seems inflated some now.

Most of the commentary I read seems to say the market may have another 5% upside, but no one seems enthusiastic. I've tried to move to ETFs and stocks I can put stops on, at least.

Wonder what some of the really old timers in the financial world would think of this setup?

The rub is trying to time the market...set your portfolio mix in line with your risk tolerance...diversify...dollar cost average...rebalance quarterly...lower your risk as you get closer to retirement...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

We'll know the bull market has peaked when Blue jumps in.

[8timechamps]

Compared to inflation, anyone in stocks hasn't made jack since 1980.

Ooooh its at 13,000! So what? Gas is 4 bucks a gallon and 100 a barrel. Groceries are outrageous. The cost of living has gone up exponentially compared to your teeny tiny portfolio. Wake up. The majority of Americans are living on the edge or over the cliff. Talking about the Dow Jones (Which replaces poor performing stocks btw) is insulting.

Pump some fake printing press money into, watch it soar for a few months, and then do it again when the fundamentals catch up with the inflated money.

One more question. If we can just print money, why pay taxes? Both parties do it so save the partisan crap.

Blue, I can refer you to thousands (and there's probably hundreds of thousands or millions) of folks that have beat inflation in the market. Timing the market, well that's altogether different (and foolish).

[8timechamps]

I set a price target for APPL at $700. I've sold some and reallocated. My new target for APPL (2012) is $760. That's a little lower than the street expects, but I always come in conservative.

[hawaii 5-0]

APPL closes at over $700 today. Woot !!

I remember when people were saying it was overpriced at $400.

5-0

[Oldnslo]

If we can just print money, why pay taxes? Both parties do it so save the partisan crap.

I think Blue is on to something, here.

[pphilfran]

Some concern about Apple...tread carefully going forward...

Down about 2% today to 688...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/24/apples-iphone-5-sales-are-actually-a-big-letdown-2-charts-spel/

Apple just reported that it sold more than 5 million iPhones over the iPhone 5's opening weekend.

This is a very disappointing number.

It's below top Apple analyst Gene Munster's estimate of 6 million to 10 million. Worse, it indicates that growth may be slowing at Apple.

Take a look at this chart.

Opening weekend sales grew 70% between the 3GS and the iPhone 4, and then an astounding 135% between the 4 and the 4s. That's acceleration. iPhone 5 sales, meanwhile, grew only 25%. That's massive deceleration.

Digging deeper into the numbers, we find more bad news. Check out this second chart.

Apple sold the iPhone 5 in 9 countries over its opening weekend. It sold the iPhone 4S in 7. It actually sold fewer iPhones per country this year than the last. That's not just deceleration, that's shrinkage:

Decelerating growth is not good for a company like Apple, which despite a modest P/E ratio, has one of the most generous trailing 12 month revenue multiples of any hardware company on the public markets.

[8timechamps]

Some concern about Apple...tread carefully going forward...

Down about 2% today to 688...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/24/apples-iphone-5-sales-are-actually-a-big-letdown-2-charts-spel/

Apple just reported that it sold more than 5 million iPhones over the iPhone 5's opening weekend.

This is a very disappointing number.

It's below top Apple analyst Gene Munster's estimate of 6 million to 10 million. Worse, it indicates that growth may be slowing at Apple.

Take a look at this chart.

Opening weekend sales grew 70% between the 3GS and the iPhone 4, and then an astounding 135% between the 4 and the 4s. That's acceleration. iPhone 5 sales, meanwhile, grew only 25%. That's massive deceleration.

Digging deeper into the numbers, we find more bad news. Check out this second chart.

Apple sold the iPhone 5 in 9 countries over its opening weekend. It sold the iPhone 4S in 7. It actually sold fewer iPhones per country this year than the last. That's not just deceleration, that's shrinkage:

Decelerating growth is not good for a company like Apple, which despite a modest P/E ratio, has one of the most generous trailing 12 month revenue multiples of any hardware company on the public markets.

Fair points. I sold shares for a lot of positions when the stock hit my first target of $700. I'm still banking on their entry in the smart TV market to make up for any shortcomings in the phone market growth. I do believe Samsung has taken a bite (no pun intended) out of Apple's phone market.

[pphilfran]

How far out is their entry into the smart tv market? Any guess?

[hawaii 5-0]

A few people I've talked to are taking the opportunity to by a lesser model at a cheaper price.

If it drops below $400, then I'll worry. Anything else is just gravy.


5-0

[pphilfran]

Like I said, tread carefully....if I owned them I would damn sure be taking some profits...

They have been spectacular in hitting or exceeding market expectations and introducing products that the consumer clamors for...if they have a miss their stock price will get slammed....

What is their next big intro and when is it due?

[pphilfran]

Apple is out of my league....I am a contrarian investor....I buy stocks like I shop...I don't buy much if the sign outside the store says "Prices increased by 30%!" I look for bargain basement sales...

[8timechamps]

Apple is out of my league....I am a contrarian investor....I buy stocks like I shop...I don't buy much if the sign outside the store says "Prices increased by 30%!" I look for bargain basement sales...

I think you are better than the average though. At these price levels, you have to put a lot of money in to make money on the stock, and that's a tough pill to swallow for most people. I wouldn't buy it now either. Kinda like Google, I missed it early, so I've just had to live with not participating.

[hawaii 5-0]

I sure wouldn't jump into anything that was at an all time high.

I think.


5-0

[cleller]

Remember when gasoline briefly hit 79 cents about 15 years ago? At the time I told my wife that price was too low, and I ought to buy some oil stocks, but never followed thru. It would have taken a few years, but you'd have been handsomely rewarded.

I feel that way some about natural gas right now, but haven't really jumped in. (Well, I did buy some Devon a few months ago) They just seem to keep finding more. By the time you see that CNG pumps along the interstate it may be too late.

[pphilfran]

I think the market is going to have a tough road ahead...Intel, and FedEx both issued concerns the past few weeks and now today Cat issued additional concerns about it's future earnings forecasts...

And then this in the Eurozone...

http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/08/23/eurozone-manufacturing-recession/

The eurozone economy continues to limp toward another recession as business activity stagnates, according to data released Thursday.

A key manufacturing index showed activity across the eurozone contracting for the seventh straight month in August. The Markit composite Purchasing Managers Index was virtually unchanged from July at 46.6. Any reading below 50 signals contraction.

Output declined in both the manufacturing and services sectors. And incoming new business orders fell for the 13th month in a row, though the pace was less sharp than in July, which showed a 3-year low for orders.

The data suggest the eurozone economy will fall back into recession during the the third quarter, according to Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

Dobson said that the PMI numbers for July and August were consistent with a decline of between 0.5% and 0.6% in gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of economic growth.

And that's setting the region up for a recession, which economists define as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.

The eurozone GDP fell 0.2% in the second quarter, according to Eurostat.

Hedge funds are betting on a disaster

Dobson said growth in larger euro area economies, such as Germany and France, is no longer sufficient to support activity across the 17-nation currency bloc.

"Hopes that German economic strength will aid recovery in the broader currency union were dealt a blow by its rate of economic contraction accelerating, and further signs that its export engine has slammed into reverse gear," said Dobson.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are set to meet Thursday to discuss the situation in Greece.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Apple is out of my league....I am a contrarian investor....I buy stocks like I shop...I don't buy much if the sign outside the store says "Prices increased by 30%!" I look for bargain basement sales...

Well, there you go - like Warren Buffet grabbing Bank of America back when it was $5/share in 2009.

[8timechamps]

Lots of volume today. Spain is still a concern. I think we're going to see another rally before year-end.

[pphilfran]

I will buck the trend and say it will be down by years end...

[8timechamps]

Remember when gasoline briefly hit 79 cents about 15 years ago? At the time I told my wife that price was too low, and I ought to buy some oil stocks, but never followed thru. It would have taken a few years, but you'd have been handsomely rewarded.

I feel that way some about natural gas right now, but haven't really jumped in. (Well, I did buy some Devon a few months ago) They just seem to keep finding more. By the time you see that CNG pumps along the interstate it may be too late.

I remember the exact gas station I was in when the price went over $2.00 a gallon (I remember it being well below $1.00 too, but in this case, it has a kinda funny story attached). I was waiting in line to pay for my gas (there must not have been a credit card system on the pump, otherwise I probably wouldn't have been inside). This (or a close approximation) conversation ensues:


Woman paying for for her gas: "When did gas go over $2.00?"

Guy working the register: "In the past couple of days"

Woman: "Well, it's not going to be over $2 long, I work in oil and I know it's coming back down!"

Guy standing behind me listening to this : "Ha. Remember you said that, we'll never see gas below $2 again. Never!"

Woman: "What do you do for a living?"

Guy standing behind me: "I own a printing shop"

Woman: "Well, you stick to printing and I'll stick to predicting gas prices!"

That's how it unfolded. And that's my story about $2 gas.

[pphilfran]

APPL 667

Some sell off is to be expected due to it's big run up this year...

Anybody want to guess at a bottom?

I'll say 630 by years end...

[hawaii 5-0]

APPL 667

Some sell off is to be expected due to it's big run up this year...

Anybody want to guess at a bottom?

I'll say 630 by years end...

That's not low enough for me to buy more. Maybe if it dropped to $525, but I doubt we'll see that.

5-0

[pphilfran]

Who knows...I just pulled a number out of my butt...

To get to this point they have done everything right and brought out new exciting products that the public was willing to wait in line for...and they had little competition for those new style products...

They now must continue to innovate or risk a big decline over the next year or two...

Technically (just eyeballing the chart), the 550 range is critical...drop below that and I could see it going down to the mid 300's...

Going forward it is going to be very interesting to watch

[hawaii 5-0]

I'm happy all my eggs aren't in one basket.

5-0

[8timechamps]

Who knows...I just pulled a number out of my butt...

To get to this point they have done everything right and brought out new exciting products that the public was willing to wait in line for...and they had little competition for those new style products...

They now must continue to innovate or risk a big decline over the next year or two...

Technically (just eyeballing the chart), the 550 range is critical...drop below that and I could see it going down to the mid 300's...

Going forward it is going to be very interesting to watch

I did anticipate a sell off at $700, and sold some for a lot of folks at that mark. I'm going to say it'll hit the low $650's. However, after this week, I'm hearing a lot of chatter about a buy in at the first of next week. I would also agree that $550 is a critical mark. Since most all (if not all) of my clients got into Apple in the low $200's, it'll have to really take a dive for me to worry.

They are certainly facing (for the first time) real competition. The question is, will the mini-iPad and Smart TV be enough to regain traction?

[Killerbees]

I have been out of country for a while. Been busy last few weeks hadnt had time to read and catch up on the thread yet.




I feel that way some about natural gas right now, but haven't really jumped in. (Well, I did buy some Devon a few months ago) They just seem to keep finding more. By the time you see that CNG pumps along the interstate it may be too late.

I dunno much about nat gas. I do know I would stick to the commodity and not the companies right now, unless you do some real research on it. They have drastically cut the estimated reserves from shale gas. The per well output in the major shale fields are backing it up as they are rapidly declining in production. As a result several companies have greatly overstated their estimated recovery. Sounds like a mine field to me, from what I have read, which granted isnt much.

[8timechamps]

I did anticipate a sell off at $700, and sold some for a lot of folks at that mark. I'm going to say it'll hit the low $650's. However, after this week, I'm hearing a lot of chatter about a buy in at the first of next week. I would also agree that $550 is a critical mark. Since most all (if not all) of my clients got into Apple in the low $200's, it'll have to really take a dive for me to worry.

They are certainly facing (for the first time) real competition. The question is, will the mini-iPad and Smart TV be enough to regain traction?

Looks like $650 was the resistance. Once it hit that mark, volume picked up and ended the day up a couple of bucks. It's going to be interesting to see if the momentum stays with it.

[hawaii 5-0]

Anyone else having fun with IBM ?


5-0

[8timechamps]

Anyone else having fun with IBM ?


5-0

Not with IBM, but with Chipotle! Down ▼13.17 today. It was worse, but picked up some steam in the afternoon.

[8timechamps]

Moved some money into Starbucks today. They'll be announcing on November 1, and I think the advent of the new Versimo machine is going to pay dividends for them. I don't anticipate this to be a long-term position, but I think it'll be good for an intermediate bump. Also, one of the better performers I've had for a long time is the YUM brands. I truly don't pay a lot of attention to it, and it's been a solid grower for me. America can't get enough fast food I suppose.

Just thought I'd add some other companies (besides Apple) that have interested me lately.

[pphilfran]

It has been a money maker since 2008...up 600%...

[hawaii 5-0]

Moved some money into Starbucks today. They'll be announcing on November 1, and I think the advent of the new Versimo machine is going to pay dividends for them. I don't anticipate this to be a long-term position, but I think it'll be good for an intermediate bump. Also, one of the better performers I've had for a long time is the YUM brands. I truly don't pay a lot of attention to it, and it's been a solid grower for me. America can't get enough fast food I suppose.

Just thought I'd add some other companies (besides Apple) that have interested me lately.



K Cups helped buy my wife's new SUV via Keurig via GMCR.

5-0

[Jacie]

Just sold my 6 shares of Travelzoo stock for $23/share.

These were a freebie a few years ago for signing up with TZ. Received a notice in the mail that i could purchase more for $30/share, sit tight or sell for the prevailing price, less an $18 processing fee. Wifey was skeptical till the check showed up . . .

[SanJoaquinSooner]

HP's Meg Whitman got scalped by CNBC Squawk in the Street interview. HP nosediving.

[cleller]

So when does Apple become a big buy again? Now?

Never had any, but until recently had a couple mutual funds with some exposure.

[8timechamps]

So when does Apple become a big buy again? Now?

Never had any, but until recently had a couple mutual funds with some exposure.

I'm not sure it'll ever be a big buy again. At the current share price, it's a bigger risk than getting into some lower priced companies. I wouldn't advise any of my clients to get in now. But, for those that own it (which is most of them), my advice is to sit tight.

[cleller]

I'm not sure it'll ever be a big buy again. At the current share price, it's a bigger risk than getting into some lower priced companies. I wouldn't advise any of my clients to get in now. But, for those that own it (which is most of them), my advice is to sit tight.

Every 5 years I go thru this question. I always conclude the rocket ride is about over.

On a different note, I recently discovered US I-bonds as a good place to park some cash. May be common knowledge to many, but it was news to me. I believe they currently yield 2.2%. They limit you to $10k per SSN, and you have to buy them thru Treasury Direct, but if you'd planned to let cash sit somewhere anyway, this will be a better yield.
Hard to get excited about 2.2%, I know.

[hawaii 5-0]

Sad ain't it?

5-0

[pphilfran]

Earnings season coming up...JP Morgan and Wells Fargo later this week...I am guessing good numbers...

[8timechamps]

Earnings season coming up...JP Morgan and Wells Fargo later this week...I am guessing good numbers...

I would thing so. Looking forward to Starbucks earnings, predicted to be good.


In the ongoing Apple saga:
Today, there's issues with the manufacturing company for the iPhone 5 (Foxconn in China). Working conditions, labor issues, etc. The stock is down ▼16.00. Could see a bump in the closing hours.

[pphilfran]

I would thing so. Looking forward to Starbucks earnings, predicted to be good.


In the ongoing Apple saga:
Today, there's issues with the manufacturing company for the iPhone 5 (Foxconn in China). Working conditions, labor issues, etc. The stock is down ▼16.00. Could see a bump in the closing hours.


Didn't the Foxconn folks go on strike or walk off the job or go to fighting or something last week?

[8timechamps]

Didn't the Foxconn folks go on strike or walk off the job or go to fighting or something last week?

Something along those lines. I don't really know the details, just that it spooked the market.

[ouleaf]

My Eli Lilly stock (LLY) has been on a good upward trend over the past 6 months or so. They had a great day today bumping up 2.5 points after encouraging test results on their new Alzheimers drug. Bought it mostly because a solid dividend stock, but has shown better than expected growth.

[Killerbees]

Here is a pretty interesting article on the inner goings on at FB leading up to the IPO. Mirrors what I pointed out a few pages back in their prospectus.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-10/facebook-fought-sec-to-keep-mobile-risks-hidden-before-ipo-crash.html

[8timechamps]

Here is a pretty interesting article on the inner goings on at FB leading up to the IPO. Mirrors what I pointed out a few pages back in their prospectus.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-10/facebook-fought-sec-to-keep-mobile-risks-hidden-before-ipo-crash.html

Yeah, that whole thing was a mess...and a lot of the reason the stock fell like a rock.

[Killerbees]

I am moving back into more silver and gold stocks. I really think the price is gonna be moving big time starting in the next week or so. Its coming later than i originally thought but i think its finally here. Had a good breakout from a trend started 18 months ago. A little pullback happening now and hopefully its gonna start climbing again. We shall see.

[cleller]

Yeah, that whole thing was a mess...and a lot of the reason the stock fell like a rock.

I'm curious as to what will happen when all the employees that received stock are allowed to sell if they want. That's in December, I think? Lots of psychology as to what's the best tactic: keep it and wait for things to improve, take the money and run, or reinvest elsewhere.

The skeptics were sure right on this one.

[pphilfran]

There are something like 250 million shares that can be sold between now and Nov 13...on Nov 14 there are over a billion additional shares that can be sold..

[FaninAma]

The markets will tread water until the election giving the insiders time to flip their position on this faux rally and ride the wave down.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Crash of 87!

Happy silver anniversary!!

[pphilfran]

APPL 667

Some sell off is to be expected due to it's big run up this year...

Anybody want to guess at a bottom?

I'll say 630 by years end...

Blew through my guess...615....

[8timechamps]

Blew through my guess...615....

I have to admit, I don't have a clue what to expect. Next week is supposedly the announcement of the iPad mini, so it's going to be interesting. I didn't think it would get below 630 either, but it did. There has to be some support at 600, so that may be a place to buffer.

[pphilfran]

I think they are in a tough spot...a few months ago they were the toast of the town...had done everything right...damn near perfect and the stock skyrocketed...

Now they are in the unenviable position of having to do everything right going forward or they will get crushed...

I agree on the support around 600...

Can't wait to see what next week brings...

Tread carefully

[hawaii 5-0]

Opportunities........

5-0

[8timechamps]

I think they are in a tough spot...a few months ago they were the toast of the town...had done everything right...damn near perfect and the stock skyrocketed...

Now they are in the unenviable position of having to do everything right going forward or they will get crushed...

I agree on the support around 600...

Can't wait to see what next week brings...

Tread carefully

No doubt. This is one of those times that I wouldn't touch a stock if I weren't already in.

[Beef]

No doubt. This is one of those times that I wouldn't touch a **** if I weren't already in.

No doubt

[pphilfran]

Opportunities........

5-0


No for me...it is not at the point of being a value stock....

[pphilfran]

FB earnings announcement after the close...

Do we go long or short on FB today....

[Sooner24]

FB earnings announcement after the close...

Do we go long or short on FB today....

I would short Facebook.

[cleller]

I read articles at Seeking Alpha pretty often. Good one today ripping MSFT. Makes Apple's future sound even brighter long term. FB? I couldn't buy with confidence anything run be Zuckerberg, he just doesn't look the part for some reason.

More interesting, I think, are some articles discussing Caterpillar. They've been warning of weaknesses in 2013 for a few weeks now. As a bellwether, some are saying this is cause for caution in the markets.

[8timechamps]

FB earnings announcement after the close...

Do we go long or short on FB today....

Long. I think they will announce better than expected. Still wouldn't touch the stock though.

[8timechamps]

I read articles at Seeking Alpha pretty often. Good one today ripping MSFT. Makes Apple's future sound even brighter long term. FB? I couldn't buy with confidence anything run be Zuckerberg, he just doesn't look the part for some reason.

More interesting, I think, are some articles discussing Caterpillar. They've been warning of weaknesses in 2013 for a few weeks now. As a bellwether, some are saying this is cause for caution in the markets.

Having 3M and DuPont miss on estimates hurt pretty bad today. This is definitely an effect of the shaky global economy. I'm not sure how substantiated those fears are, but Wall Street has never taken a 'wait and see' approach.

I moved into Yahoo about 6 months ago, and I'm really bullish on the stock. There is a lot of upside, and they have a CEO that will be aggressive in their market space.

[pphilfran]

Long. I think they will announce better than expected. Still wouldn't touch the stock though.

I am in the same boat...the quarterly earnings will not be as important as their trends...the vultures will be trying to pick apart the overall report so it needs to be good on all fronts...

[pphilfran]

Twelve cents vs eleven expected by the street
Rev slightly under expectations 1.262 billions vs 1.3 expected
Monthly active users up 26% y/y vs 29% last quarter
Daily active users us 28% y/y vs 32%
Mobile up 61% vs 67%

[pphilfran]

WE shall see if they can stem those quarterly growth slides...

[Killerbees]

Blew through my guess...615....

570ish in 4 weeks

no stake in this.

[Killerbees]

I am watching 2 short term winners right now. both are risky so I don't have alot in them (just a few thousand shares each).

DYAX @ 2.80
CWTR @ 3.25

both up 15-20% in a few weeks for me.

[8timechamps]

570ish in 4 weeks

no stake in this.


I'd bet against that, but you never know. There is support at 600, and it'll probably be tested in the coming weeks. However, Pandora got popped today on reports that Apple is in the works to launch their own internet radio service. Could be a big move for AAPL. IF Apple were to hit 570, I'd be all over it again.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I heard they're sandbagging for the next quarter.

[Killerbees]

I'd bet against that, but you never know. There is support at 600, and it'll probably be tested in the coming weeks. However, Pandora got popped today on reports that Apple is in the works to launch their own internet radio service. Could be a big move for AAPL. IF Apple were to hit 570, I'd be all over it again.


I just glanced at the chart and that is what I saw. Volume says the downside isnt over. 590 would be a key retracement and it might hold there but I would bet on 570.

[8timechamps]

I just glanced at the chart and that is what I saw. Volume says the downside isnt over. 590 would be a key retracement and it might hold there but I would bet on 570.

600 was/is the support level, and it was definitely tested today. I would be very surprised to see it get back to 570, but if it does, I'm adding to all my positions. I think we've seen the low (591), and I'm guessing it's back over 600 for the rest of the quarter. Of course we're all speculating, so who knows?!

[Killerbees]

600 was/is the support level, and it was definitely tested today. I would be very surprised to see it get back to 570, but if it does, I'm adding to all my positions. I think we've seen the low (591), and I'm guessing it's back over 600 for the rest of the quarter. Of course we're all speculating, so who knows?!

Since its just speculating,

I am going to guess that next week it pops up to the 620 - 625 range possibly up to 630, breaks the 5 straight weeks of selling off, then resumes its down trend to my original call of 570 over the next 3 weeks after that.

I haven't really been paying attention to it honestly. I just looked after I saw the comments here, if it was still skyrocketing up then I would be watching closely.

The volume says this correction isnt over. Again I have no horse in this race. If I had been able to be in a position to watch it I would have opened a short interest in it in the middle of Sept. All the same stuff was there last time I opened a short in it in Apr. Instead I was on vacation.

[pphilfran]

I tossed a dart...I say it is still going down...

[cleller]

After reading your posts about Apple, I looked it up, and was surprised to see its P/E listed as 14.2. I was shocked. I don't really follow it, but at the way it has been growing I assumed it was crazy, like in the 40's.

It comes very close to making me want to buy, when I thought it really was too late now. I'm warming more than ever to Apple, after the ho-hum to bad remarks I've seen about Windows 8. Further, do you think Samsung is a legit challenger/competitor with Apple?

[8timechamps]

After reading your posts about Apple, I looked it up, and was surprised to see its P/E listed as 14.2. I was shocked. I don't really follow it, but at the way it has been growing I assumed it was crazy, like in the 40's.

It comes very close to making me want to buy, when I thought it really was too late now. I'm warming more than ever to Apple, after the ho-hum to bad remarks I've seen about Windows 8. Further, do you think Samsung is a legit challenger/competitor with Apple?

The thing about Apple right now is that it's certainly not a value buy. Personally, I think it'll go over 700 in the next 12 months, but that's more of a semi-educated guess. I really wouldn't recommend any of my clients get in it now (if they weren't already in).

I REALLY like Samsung right now. If Apple has a competitor, it would be Samsung. However, Samsung is a major hardware supplier to Apple...so it's kind of a win/win for them. I've never had exposure in Samsung, nor have any of my clients, but that is probably going to change in the next month.

[8timechamps]

Since its just speculating,

I am going to guess that next week it pops up to the 620 - 625 range possibly up to 630, breaks the 5 straight weeks of selling off, then resumes its down trend to my original call of 570 over the next 3 weeks after that.

I haven't really been paying attention to it honestly. I just looked after I saw the comments here, if it was still skyrocketing up then I would be watching closely.

The volume says this correction isnt over. Again I have no horse in this race. If I had been able to be in a position to watch it I would have opened a short interest in it in the middle of Sept. All the same stuff was there last time I opened a short in it in Apr. Instead I was on vacation.

I'm not questioning your strategy, but in 20+ years in the industry, I've never heard of an indicator that includes volume. Short term, I can see the correlation, long term...I don't see how it would indicate anything. But, to each their own.

I really wouldn't mind seeing it at 570. Out of all my clients that are in, the highest anyone's basis is, is around $200, so there's lot's of room to move. If it hits 570, I'd probably buy in with the gains from the 700 sale.

[pphilfran]

I'm not questioning your strategy, but in 20+ years in the industry, I've never heard of an indicator that includes volume. Short term, I can see the correlation, long term...I don't see how it would indicate anything. But, to each their own.

I really wouldn't mind seeing it at 570. Out of all my clients that are in, the highest anyone's basis is, is around $200, so there's lot's of room to move. If it hits 570, I'd probably buy in with the gains from the 700 sale.

Nice

[8timechamps]

Nice

2009. I look like a genius now.

[Killerbees]

I'm not questioning your strategy, but in 20+ years in the industry, I've never heard of an indicator that includes volume. Short term, I can see the correlation, long term...I don't see how it would indicate anything. But, to each their own.

I really wouldn't mind seeing it at 570. Out of all my clients that are in, the highest anyone's basis is, is around $200, so there's lot's of room to move. If it hits 570, I'd probably buy in with the gains from the 700 sale.

Yes i am talking about short term, hence the next few weeks.

Long term i dunno, but i see indication that the bigger players are undloading / lightening their position, so i wouldnt be a long term buyer of aapl anytime soon. 2 misses and a big downward Q1 revisement will do that. Point being that if large institutionals are trimming their position then its going to be really difficult for aapl to reach much higher.

If your in then thats a different story but as far as opening a long term position right now, i dont see why anyone would want to do that.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I once bought Apple at 18/share and sold at 36/share - got out just in time to make a killin.

[hawaii 5-0]

I jumped in initially at $48.


5-0

[pphilfran]

Ford (Tue)and GM (Wed) earnings released this week...imo ain't gonna be pretty...

[Skysooner]

Does anyone here trade forex?

[Curly Bill]

I just invested in a Sig-Sauer 516 assault rifle. I figured that was as good an invesment as any right now.

[8timechamps]

Does anyone here trade forex?

That's something I've never really meddled in. I have a junior partner that does. He seems to understand it pretty well, and seems to do okay. Too much manipulation overseas for my taste.

[pphilfran]

Ford (Tue)and GM (Wed) earnings released this week...imo ain't gonna be pretty...

This is why I don't trade...the numbers are better than I expected :)

GM net income falls 13% vs last year
Ford flat

Both did well in the US but were hammered in Europe...

[hawaii 5-0]

This is why I don't trade...the numbers are better than I expected :)

GM net income falls 13% vs last year
Ford flat

Both did well in the US but were hammered in Europe...



Waitasec. Phil, you said you don't trade? Say it ain't so!


5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

I just invested in a Sig-Sauer 516 assault rifle. I figured that was as good an invesment as any right now.



With Romney record on assault weapons it's the worst investment you could make.


5-0

[Curly Bill]

With Romney record on assault weapons it's the worst investment you could make.

5-0

More concerned about if Obammy is re-elected. If there are further attempts to regulate assault weapons, or after the next mass shooting followed by the usual cries for "common sense gun control," I figure it will be a great investment.

[pphilfran]

Waitasec. Phil, you said you don't trade? Say it ain't so!


5-0

Never a short term trader...I look for value, at least I attempt to look for value, and hold for extended periods of time...

[pphilfran]

APPLE 595.32

Getting down to support levels...

[cleller]

With Romney record on assault weapons it's the worst investment you could make.


5-0


More concerned about if Obammy is re-elected. If there are further attempts to regulate assault weapons, or after the next mass shooting followed by the usual cries for "common sense gun control," I figure it will be a great investment.

I have no idea what Romney thinks about assault weapons, but my experience buying a Mini-14 around 18 years ago was eye-opening. I bought it just in case a ban came around, even though the Mini 14 would likely be excluded. I paid something like $220-$240, similar ones are now running $800-$900, and no market crash to worry about.
Wish I'd bought every one I could find and afford. If an assault weapon ban came around, not sure if it would cover private sellers, or not. There would surely be a hot black market.

Anyway, the articles about people buying cars, art, guns, even wine are showing up in financial mags all the time now. How about those Schwinn Apple Krate bikes? Sky high.

[hawaii 5-0]

Never a short term trader...I look for value, at least I attempt to look for value, and hold for extended periods of time...


I don't think I've ever held a stock for less than 3 years.

5-0

[SanJoaquinSooner]

today's rally was due to a China index rising.

[8timechamps]

APPLE 595.32

Getting down to support levels...

Yep. It's at 587 as I'm typing this. Killer Bee's may have been right, and I'm getting a little itchy to add to the position. Still gonna hold out for 570.

Starbucks has had a nice pop since they announced. Hopefully it'll continue the trend. I bought in prior to the announcement, then it dove. Finally back into positive ground. I'll be in it awhile, so I never get too worried when there's a drop. Clients on the other hand...

[pphilfran]

576.80

[cleller]

Yep. It's at 587 as I'm typing this. Killer Bee's may have been right, and I'm getting a little itchy to add to the position. Still gonna hold out for 570.

Starbucks has had a nice pop since they announced. Hopefully it'll continue the trend. I bought in prior to the announcement, then it dove. Finally back into positive ground. I'll be in it awhile, so I never get too worried when there's a drop. Clients on the other hand...

So, Apple is getting close to your buy trigger? I've been reading a few stories, and don't see any glaring excuses for its drop. I've forever thought someday Apple would become so commonplace it isn't trendy, and have always been wrong. With the new Ipod mini, it seems like they are tossing out new gadgets left and right. I did read a report that 75% of the newest phones shipped were Android....

Still, lots of people around the world are going to want Apple products. Tempting, but if this little sell-off turns into something bigger, I worry Apple will drop with everything else. Gonna pull some hair out one way or another.

[pphilfran]

I don't know what to do with Apple...the genius behind them is pushing up daisies....the last few product launches went perfectly and exceeded expectations which drove up sales and the stock price...

To keep the stock moving forward they have to beat last years sales...and those sales numbers are going to be tough to meet without future spectacular product launches....

Add in a few competitors matching Apple stride for stride in new product development and probably a few new guys that we haven't even heard about and I think Apple is in for a rough ride over the next few years...

The tech business is all about being the apple in the consumers eye and Apple has a really loyal fan base...the question is does Apple have new products coming on line that the non Apple zealot wants and is willing to pay a premium for that product...only time will tell...

My thoughts, and they are all probably wrong.....

[pphilfran]

double post...if I were on an IPad this wouldn't have happened.....

[Killerbees]

kind of related.

The google nexus 4 will be available Nov 13.

Google Nexus 4 (https://play.google.com/store/devices/details?id=nexus_4_8gb&feature=offn-text-sem-n4&utm_source=offn&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=sem&utm_content=n4)

Pros
1.5GHz quad core processor (fastest on the market)
2 GB Ram (most on the market)
Jelly Bean OS (only phone that has the newest android OS)
$300 bucks gets you a factory unlocked 8GB phone straight from google

Cons
No expandable SD card slot, (16 GB is the largest internal mem model)
No 4G LTE

I think for the price it is hands down the best phone on the market. Then again I havent used the 8gb SD card on my current phone very much and 4G LTE is not available where I live.

Impartial reviews that I have read said that it edges out the Galaxy SIII but the difference wont be noticed in day to day performance, and it smokes the new iphone.

[8timechamps]

So, Apple is getting close to your buy trigger? I've been reading a few stories, and don't see any glaring excuses for its drop. I've forever thought someday Apple would become so commonplace it isn't trendy, and have always been wrong. With the new Ipod mini, it seems like they are tossing out new gadgets left and right. I did read a report that 75% of the newest phones shipped were Android....

Still, lots of people around the world are going to want Apple products. Tempting, but if this little sell-off turns into something bigger, I worry Apple will drop with everything else. Gonna pull some hair out one way or another.

Close, but like the point pphilfran spoke to, I really don't know what to make of them. A big factor is my (and my client's) cost basis is so low, that the average cost per share makes it interesting. If I wasn't already in, I don't think I would consider it a value buy, even at this level.

I think Samsung has shown the blueprint for how to take bites out of the market space, but Samsung stands to gain with it's own success as well as Apple (since they are a supplier to Apple). I actually like Samsung more right now.

[pphilfran]

Where is my parachute...

The Eurozone tanks us again...Germany slowing is not a good sign...

Appl made a comeback yesterday but goes back to 560 today...

FB hanging in there at just above 20...

[FaninAma]

If you haven't gotten out of this market by now you are not too bright. Even Ben Bernanke and his magic printing press can't save it. I look for it to return to 2009 levels.....or worse.

[pphilfran]

If you haven't gotten out of this market by now you are not too bright. Even Ben Bernanke and his magic printing press can't save it. I look for it to return to 2009 levels.....or worse.


You are not too bright if you try to time the market...very few are ever successful....not only do you have to pick the stocks...you also have to pick the top...and then pick the bottom...far beyond my skills...

Set your allocation based on your risk tolerance...dollar cost avg...diversify over sectors....rebalance quarterly...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

fiscal cliff jitters

[pphilfran]

fiscal cliff jitters

Hell, no...that has been staring them in the face for some time...

It is Europe and what was said this morning....

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/07/news/economy/german-economy-eurozone/index.html?source=zacks

The European Commission said it expected the German economy to slow further in the second half of 2012 due to weaker export markets and investment activity, a view echoed by ECB President Mario Draghi.

"Germany has so far been largely insulated from some of the difficulties elsewhere in the euro area. But the latest data suggest that these developments are now starting to affect the German economy," Draghi said in a speech Wednesday in Frankfurt.

German GDP growth would slow to 0.8% in 2012, down from 3% last year. It would only manage 0.8% growth again next year, according to the Commission's forecasts.

German industrial production shrank 1.8% in September after declining 0.4% the month before, the economy ministry said Wednesday.

"Overall economic activity is weak and it is expected to remain weak in the near term. And the growth of money and credit are subdued," Draghi said, adding the ECB expected eurozone inflation to fall below 2% next year.

[pphilfran]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-drops-draghi-says-debt-crisis-hits-germany-2012-11-07?siteid=bulletrss

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The euro dropped versus the dollar and other major rivals Wednesday, with U.S. stock index futures also on the decline, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro-zone debt crisis is beginning to have an impact on the region's largest economy. "Germany has so far been largely insulated from some of the difficulties elsewhere in the euro area. But the latest data suggest that these developments are now starting to affect the German economy," Draghi said in remarks prepared for delivery in Frankfurt. The euro EURUSD -0.37% fell to $1.2747 in recent action, down from $1.2817 in North American trade late Tuesday. A variety of German data have pointed to slowing activity in recent months, raising concerns over a weakening of the euro zone's growth engine, economists have noted

[pphilfran]

Look at crude prices...down to 85...fear of another worldwide recession if things continue to go south...

[8timechamps]

If you haven't gotten out of this market by now you are not too bright. Even Ben Bernanke and his magic printing press can't save it. I look for it to return to 2009 levels.....or worse.


Like pphilfran said, only if you're a market timer (in which case, you'll never be in good shape). I haven't had problems finding gains for my clients. Of course almost all of the positions are long.

[8timechamps]

Today was a double whammy, first and foremost was the Eurocrisis. Germany is the latest player in that seemingly neverending saga.

Then, the re-election of Obama. This is in no way a political statement, just the way it is. The economy is in the tank, and Wall Street reacted to another four years of the same guy that is in the white house. Some of that will rebound.

I got a notice from an analyst today to watch support levels for Apple at 528. I will jump back in somewhere along the way. I sold off a lot at 700, so I'll average back in. Probably nowhere near as much this time around.

[Killerbees]

I was partly right. I figured it would take 2 more weeks to get there. It hasn't pulled up week to week yet which is surprising. It is at some major support right now. If it closes lower then I think the 530ish mentioned by your analyst is dead on. If I was holding any right now I would have stops set below that at 520ish because if it breaks through there, it could drop all the way to 465.

I think it should respond here and make a move up. Its at support and honestly it needed a pullback like this because it hasnt had one this big since 2009. The shorts piled on and gunned some stops, they tried hard twice to take it lower and it held.

I wouldnt put money on it turning though, because the chart is ugly and shows no signs of stopping the bleeding.

[pphilfran]

540...time to nibble?

[pphilfran]

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/aqppl.jpg

[cleller]

540...time to nibble?

P/E is currently listed at 12. Shoot, Burger King has a P/E of 56. Crazy world.

[Killerbees]

Katy bar the door on this one. AAPL looks terrible. That volume action is spelling some further downside. I really didn't think it had a chance to get down to 520s, color me surprised because it looks like that is where its going. I still expect a bounce there back over 600. If this thing closes below 520s then its going to get very interesting.

[cleller]

On a semi-related tangent, I thought this article was interesting. It echos a popular sentiment I've been running across; a belief that the emerging markets deserve more than just a small-medium slice of you investments. This advocates a switch from "Global North" to "Global South". Has Buffett weighed in on this idea?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-for-your-portfolio-to-get-new-glasses-2012-11-09?link=MW_story_investinginsight

[Killerbees]

On a semi-related tangent, I thought this article was interesting. It echos a popular sentiment I've been running across; a belief that the emerging markets deserve more than just a small-medium slice of you investments. This advocates a switch from "Global North" to "Global South". Has Buffett weighed in on this idea?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-for-your-portfolio-to-get-new-glasses-2012-11-09?link=MW_story_investinginsight

"fiscal cliff" must be the new catch phrase the media adores. I swear I have heard that phrase 100 times this week.

The authors argument forgets one small problem. With the US driving off a "fiscal cliff" and Europe in shambles, exactly who is going to buy the trinkets being made in these developing countries? Thier economies are all based on consuming commodities to produce trinkets for export to the US and EU. China is awash in corruption and funny math on the books, plus they are like a heroin junkie and the US is the dealer.

When/if we tank, everyone is going down with us. There will be no safety in being invested in any economy.

[8timechamps]

540...time to nibble?

I put buy orders in at $535, and they all filled this morning. I'm not expecting m a huge run to close out the year, but it's pretty clear at this point that they are not going to split the stock, and long-term I still like it enough to own it. Again, since the basis is so low on the original position, I have a lot of room to breath. Still not sure If I'd be in solo at this level.

[8timechamps]

Katy bar the door on this one. AAPL looks terrible. That volume action is spelling some further downside. I really didn't think it had a chance to get down to 520s, color me surprised because it looks like that is where its going. I still expect a bounce there back over 600. If this thing closes below 520s then its going to get very interesting.

I put a fair amount of faith in the 530ish support, and put buy orders in a couple of days ago. They all filled, so I'm very happy to see some uptick. I also entered stops on all, just in case, but they're pretty far down there.

[Killerbees]

I was looking at a daily AAPL chart and thought I saw something. So I busted out the cycle line tool and lo and behold. ( The blue vertical lines are EXACTLY the same distance apart. I moved it one day to the left just so you can clearly see the lows)

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6492/aaplf.jpg


Kind of nifty. Looks like it is time for a nice run up from here. If it fails to break the old high though it will be in danger of confirm a very large head and shoulders top.

[pphilfran]

Uh, oh...Killer brings out the technical chit....

[pphilfran]

Are those three solid lines the 30/60/90 day moving avg's?

[8timechamps]

I was looking at a daily AAPL chart and thought I saw something. So I busted out the cycle line tool and lo and behold. ( The blue vertical lines are EXACTLY the same distance apart. I moved it one day to the left just so you can clearly see the lows)

Kind of nifty. Looks like it is time for a nice run up from here. If it fails to break the old high though it will be in danger of confirm a very large head and shoulders top.

Pretty well defined cup and handle. It's got all the signs to move, now it just needs to go!

[cleller]

I bought some, too. Never imagined I'd try to jump in this late. Hard to imagine Apple won't outperform cash over the next several years.

From the graph it looks like AAPL is about spawn an earthquate, tidal wave, or confess to the Lindberg kidnapping.

[Killerbees]

Are those three solid lines the 30/60/90 day moving avg's?

No, they are 13, 26 and 52 day moving avg. The dotted green line is the 200 day moving avg.

The handle is a little deep for a cup n handle, and volume should fall off to show consolidation while forming the handle. So it doesn't really qualify as a tradeable one but that doesn't mean it won't wind up looking like one.

[Sooner5030]

Anyone else get kick out of the Interactive Brokers ads on cnbc? First they had one that played on the OWS movement and said "come join the 1%" and now I see the one with all the central banks spitting out money. Good stuff

[8timechamps]

Anyone else get kick out of the Interactive Brokers ads on cnbc? First they had one that played on the OWS movement and said "come join the 1%" and now I see the one with all the central banks spitting out money. Good stuff

Yeah, they do a good job with those.

[pphilfran]

I don't watch much CNBC anymore so I hadn't seen them...but a Youtube search showed me what I had been missing...

Appl continues to flirt with 540...keeps testing that bottom...closed at 542.83 today with a 538 intraday low...

[Sooner5030]

What do you guys watch? Bloomburg? FBN? I only have it on for background noise and to check on things throughout the day.

[Killerbees]

More Facefail news.


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — At its current level of profitability, it will take Facebook Inc. until mid-2013 at the earliest to earn enough operating income just to offset its annual stock-compensation costs.

An analysis of the company’s latest securities filing reveals that unless Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) significantly improves its operating margin, these costs — which totaled $2.3 billion as of Sept. 30 — will be enough to prevent the social network from earning a bottom-line profit for at least two more quarters.

Look for more downside on this one.

AAPL looks better now but the volume is still looking ugly. I still see nothing on the TA side that suggests its going to move up other than the cycle I pointed out earlier.

[cleller]

Ya think some folks are just reaping their profits due to uncertainty, cliffs, tax rates, etc looming ahead? Sorry if this has already been mentioned, or is too obvious.

[Killerbees]

Ya think some folks are just reaping their profits due to uncertainty, cliffs, tax rates, etc looming ahead? Sorry if this has already been mentioned, or is too obvious.


I did read about lots of people cashing in because of an expected jump in capital gains from 15% to 25% for high income earners

[cleller]

I did read about lots of people cashing in because of an expected jump in capital gains from 15% to 25% for high income earners

Same here, and I was surprised the idea had not dawned on me. It seems perfectly reasonable, and obvious. I think the cap gains thing will happen, so it could keep the pressure up, or cause more downside for the next few weeks.

[FaninAma]

The equity markets are being propped up by the Fed. Consider the following from zerohedge:



Nouriel Roubini wrote (http://www.roubini.com/roubini-monitor/254515/the_deadly_dirty_d-words__deflation_debt_deflation_and_defaults__and_ how_central_banks_will_have_to_resort_to_crazy_pol icies_as_we_have_reached_such_bermuda_triangle_of_ a_liquidity_trap) the month before that the government might buy U.S. stocks:




The Fed (or Treasury) could even go as far as directly intervening in the stock market via direct purchases of equities as
a way to boost falling equity prices. Some of such policy actions seem
extreme but they were in the playbook that Governor Bernanke described
in his 2002 speech on how to avoid deflation.
Given that Roubini was previously a senior adviser to Tim Geithner (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6A9lCHrtAqk), he probably knows what he's talking about.
Now, Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, argues that the government may, in fact, have been buying stocks to prop up the stock market. Given that 25% (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TrimTabs_Investment_Research) of the top 50 hedge funds in the world use TrimTabs' research for market timing, it is a credible source.
Specifically, Biderman writes (http://www.soonerfans.com/article/trimtabs-asks-who-responsible-non-stop-market-rally-march-gives-some-suggestions):






As far as we know, it is not illegal for the Federal Reserve or the
U.S. Treasury to buy S&P 500 futures. Moreover, several officials
have suggested the government should support stock prices.
For
example, former Fed board member Robert Heller opined in the Wall
Street Journal in 1989, “Instead of flooding the entire economy with
liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed
could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in
the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.”
In a
Financial Times article in 2002, an unidentified Fed official was
quoted as acknowledging that policymakers had considered buying U.S.
equities directly, not just futures. The official mentioned that the
Fed could “theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system.”
In an article in the Daily Telegraph in 2006, former Clinton
administration official George Stephanopoulos mentioned the existence
of “an informal agreement among the major banks to come in and start to
buy stock if there appears to be a problem.”
Mike Whitney - in commenting on Biderman's essay - adds another juicy quote (http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16748):





Consider the comments of former Clinton advisor George Stephanopoulos
who verified the existence of the PPT in an appearance on Good Morning
America on Sept 17, 2000. He said:
"What I wanted to talk about
for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public
and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to
guard against a free-fall in the markets . . . perhaps the most
important the Fed in 1989 created what is called the Plunge Protection
Team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of
the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges and they have been
meeting informally so far, and they have a kind of an informal
agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there
appears to be a problem. They have in the past acted more formally . .
. I don't know if you remember but in 1998, there was a crisis called
the Long term Capital Crisis. It was a major currency trader and there
was a global currency crisis. And they, with the guidance of the Fed,
all of the banks got together when it started to collapse and propped
up the currency markets. And, they have plans in place to consider that
if the markets start to fall."
Biderman continues:





This type of intervention could explain some of the unusual market
action in recent months, with stock prices grinding higher on low
volume even as companies sold huge amounts of new shares and retail
investors stayed on the sidelines. For example, Tyler Durden of
ZeroHedge has pointed out that virtually all of the market’s upside
since mid-September has come from after-hours S&P 500 futures
activity.
If we were involved in a scheme to manipulate the
stock market, we would want to keep it in place until after the “wealth
effect” put a floor under the economy of, say, three quarters of
positive GDP growth. Assuming the economy were performing better, then
ending the support for stock prices would be justified because a stock
market decline would not be so painful.
Whitney summarizes another of Biderman's arguments:





"We
cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up
so far so fast. For the most part, the money did not from the
traditional players that provided money in the past."
Huh? So,
this vast infusion of liquidity--which helped the banks to avoid
painful deleveraging--did not come from the usual suspects?
That's
right. According to Biderman, the money did not come from (a) companies
("which were a huge net seller") (b) retail investor funds, (c) retail
investors, (d) foreign investors ..., (e) pension funds [or (f) hedge
funds].
Has it happened? Has the government or it's primary dealers really purchased stocks?
I
don't know, but Bernanke's refusal to open up the Fed's books - and the
lack of accountability and transparent accounting standards for the big
banks - isn't helping to dispel suspicions.
And if the stock market tanks again in 2013, it might add
circumstantial evidence to a short-term attempt to prop up the market
by the government.

[Killerbees]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-hits-apple-with-20-price-hike-report-2012-11-11

Looks like that Apple win against Samsung is going to turn into a loss.


Samsung Electronics , the world's largest technology firm by revenue, raised the price of mobile processor supplied to Apple Inc. by 20% recently, Chosun Ilbo reported Monday, citing a person familiar with negotiations between the two tech giants.

"Samsung Electronics recently asked Apple for a significant price raise in (the mobile processor known as) application processor," the person was quoted as saying in the report. "Apple first disapproved it, but finding no replacement supplier, it accepted the (increase.)"

Good estimates places this at about 800 million a year price increase.

[8timechamps]

What do you guys watch? Bloomburg? FBN? I only have it on for background noise and to check on things throughout the day.

CNBC is on all day, but (like you) it's really only background noise. I watch Morning Call, but that's about the only thing I watch regularly.

[8timechamps]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/samsung-hits-apple-with-20-price-hike-report-2012-11-11

Looks like that Apple win against Samsung is going to turn into a loss.

Good estimates places this at about 800 million a year price increase.

I can't keep up with that story, it seems to have gone back and fourth a couple of times.

My latest favorite is McKesson (MCK). I've mentioned it before, but it's worth mentioning again. It's had a really good year, and has had little reaction to recent events.

[Killerbees]

I can't keep up with that story, it seems to have gone back and fourth a couple of times.

My latest favorite is McKesson (MCK). I've mentioned it before, but it's worth mentioning again. It's had a really good year, and has had little reaction to recent events.

Apple won the lawsuit. The question was Apples decision to sue one of its suppliers (the only one that could supply the cpu), when everyone knew that Samsung could respond exactly as they did. Kind of like shooting yourself in the foot. Samsung could pull the cpu entirely, Apple would be a sub 100 stock the next trading day. But why do that when you can just hold them hostage and make them pay a hefty markup.

A few pages back I mentioned being in CWTR and DYAX. I honestly know next to nothing about either company, and I don't plan on holding either for very long. CWTR is Coldwater Creek, apparently some kind of womens clothing company. I liked the way it looked so instead of googling it I just asked the wife, she said "Oh, thats the company coming out with all the good clothing for cheap, they have been featured on (she went on talking about some stupid shows she watches, I dunno the names). That was enough for me. Plus, we were just talking about cup and handles, this is a nice one. The last 2 buys have doubled my total stake. NOT RECOMMENDING THIS FOR INVESTING IT IS A HIGH RISK ONE.

http://imageshack.us/a/img194/6333/cwtr.jpg

Here is DYAX, I dunno what its going to do but it looks good also. I have a fairly tight stop (enough to protect a meager gain or more likely be even) if it goes south Again this is high risk and I am not recommending to anyone to buy this stock.

http://imageshack.us/a/img607/7530/dyax.jpg

I cropped the images to highlight the relevant portions, and moved the info over into it, if you wonder why they look odd.

[pphilfran]

Speaking of cluster ****s...how about JC Penny...Ron Johnson, the Golden Boy from Apple, has really stepped in it...

Instead of slowly weaning people off their gazzillion sales and coupons he goes all in and eliminates them in one shot...then watched the alienated customers flock to their rivals...

Then he wants to transform the stores into a hundred small shops around a boardwalk (whatever the hell he calls it) but decides to take up to three years to get the mods done...same store sales in the ones complete look promising but most stores only have four or five shops complete...

Then he slaps in I Pads so customers can browse the inventory in each sub store...I used one in their Levi's store and it has basically no information on it...imo a waste...

He also plans on going away from the normal checkout locations and using HHC's for sales ring ups...so shoppers won't know where to go to check out...

They are hemorrhaging red ink with sales in a freefall...I am not sure if Johnson or JC Penney will survive...

[cleller]

Speaking of cluster ****s...how about JC Penny...Ron Johnson, the Golden Boy from Apple, has really stepped in it...

Instead of slowly weaning people off their gazzillion sales and coupons he goes all in and eliminates them in one shot...then watched the alienated customers flock to their rivals...

Then he wants to transform the stores into a hundred small shops around a boardwalk (whatever the hell he calls it) but decides to take up to three years to get the mods done...same store sales in the ones complete look promising but most stores only have four or five shops complete...

Then he slaps in I Pads so customers can browse the inventory in each sub store...I used one in their Levi's store and it has basically no information on it...imo a waste...

He also plans on going away from the normal checkout locations and using HHC's for sales ring ups...so shoppers won't know where to go to check out...

They are hemorrhaging red ink with sales in a freefall...I am not sure if Johnson or JC Penney will survive...

That has been ugly. When he was hired, it caught my attention, and I wondered if the guy would pull off some dramatic success. I guess in hindsight Apple and JC Penney operate in pretty different worlds.

[pphilfran]

APPL - 525

[hawaii 5-0]

Not sure at what price I'll buy some more, but I'm watching it greedily.

5-0

[pphilfran]

imo the 520 to 530 range is critical...if it continues to bump higher off of this low then we should see it climb in the future....but if breaks downward from these levels I could see it go to the, say, 400 level...

A ton of money is going to made or lost if you have the nutz....

[hawaii 5-0]

A ton of money is going to made or lost if you have the nutz....



I've already got two new cars outta the rise in Apple over the years. I figure everything else is just gravy.

Diversify......diversify..........diversify.


5-0

[8timechamps]

imo the 520 to 530 range is critical...if it continues to bump higher off of this low then we should see it climb in the future....but if breaks downward from these levels I could see it go to the, say, 400 level...

A ton of money is going to made or lost if you have the nutz....

I'm back in at 530. It made a little run after, then today happened. It bounced off of 500 rapidly, and I hadn't heard that being a support level. Sometimes I have to force myself not to watch one stock too closely. I did that a lot when I started out, and that's a quick way to a panic attack. I still see it daily, but I kind of have to forget about it. Like we've always said, it's about the buy & hold and diversity.

[pphilfran]

I'm back in at 530. It made a little run after, then today happened. It bounced off of 500 rapidly, and I hadn't heard that being a support level. Sometimes I have to force myself not to watch one stock too closely. I did that a lot when I started out, and that's a quick way to a panic attack. I still see it daily, but I kind of have to forget about it. Like we've always said, it's about the buy & hold and diversity.


Up 31 to 559...quick 5% gain...

[pphilfran]

Back down to 533...looks like it going to test the bottom again...

[8timechamps]

Kind of ironic that the day Apple announces it's bringing more jobs back to the US (which I'm not sure I believe entirely), it drops another 13.

Crazy last couple of weeks, and I fully expect more.

I'm taking my annual holiday vacation from December 17th to January 7, so I'm sure that's when all the good stuff will happen.

[hawaii 5-0]

APPL back below 530 today.

I'm gettin' a little itchy.

5-0

[Turd_Ferguson]

APPL back below 530 today.

I'm gettin' a little itchy.

5-0

That's probably your crabs...

[pphilfran]

APPL back below 530 today.

I'm gettin' a little itchy.

5-0

it is bouncing between support...without good news there is little chance of a breakout on the upside...

[hawaii 5-0]

I'm pausing.

Up 13 points today, but it still might move south again before the year's out.

5-0

[SanJoaquinSooner]

With Apple's huge run-up in price over the last couple of years, if folks are going to sell it, it would be better to do it now before capital gains taxes are increased.

[pphilfran]

Uh, oh...APPL down 18 to 511...

[8timechamps]

I bought back in to APPL @ 530 a couple of weeks ago. It ran back up to 570ish, and I almost pulled the trigger, but decided that would be a short-sighted thing to do. At this point, I'm sitting tight. I saw a couple of articles today that said the lines in China (waiting for the stores to open, to get the iPhone 5) only had one or two people. I think that sent APPL tumbling, then close to closing it was reported that in China, customers that wanted the iPhone 5 had to pre-order online, and that there was a lottery held for those that didn't get a pre-order. If you were selected in the lottery, then you could go to the store and buy one. Clearly the lines weren't the same as in the US, because it wasn't a situation that enabled people to just show up and buy a phone.

I think this late news will help APPL on Monday rebound a little. After I look at the adjusted basis of the stock I own (and my clients own), I still have a lot of room to be patient.

[cleller]

This may sound awful right now, after this latest rampage, but while cruising thru Seeking Alpha, I happened to run across a story about Smith/Wesson and Sturm/Ruger.
Both stocks had run up an incredible amount this year, and recently pulled back sharply. I wonder what the impact of the latest shooting will have on these companies? There are the twin possibilities of laws to curtail sales in the future, as well as short term increased sales.

Wall Street generally seems only interested in the short term, yet both had bad days yesterday. Some of it may have been associated with dividends being declared, I think.

I hesitated to even post this, less someone might question the timing, but a head in the sand approach never helps anything.

[pphilfran]

This may sound awful right now, after this latest rampage, but while cruising thru Seeking Alpha, I happened to run across a story about Smith/Wesson and Sturm/Ruger.
Both stocks had run up an incredible amount this year, and recently pulled back sharply. I wonder what the impact of the latest shooting will have on these companies? There are the twin possibilities of laws to curtail sales in the future, as well as short term increased sales.

Wall Street generally seems only interested in the short term, yet both had bad days yesterday. Some of it may have been associated with dividends being declared, I think.

I hesitated to even post this, less someone might question the timing, but a head in the sand approach never helps anything.

Terrible timing.....profiting off of a mass murder...you should be jailed.... :)

[pphilfran]

As far as the two stocks I don't know which way I would go...

Personally I think military funding cuts might do the most damage...

Haven't really thought about it or pursued stock purchase in that industry...

[pphilfran]

Don't worry about it, cleller, there are only for or five of us that even follow this thread...

[cleller]

Terrible timing.....profiting off of a mass murder...you should be jailed.... :)

Oddly, Ruger is based in Conn, (also Colt and Marlin) and Smith&Wesson in Mass, the part of the country most opposed to guns in general. I don't know how much either country may produce for the military, Colt comes to mind when I think of the AR-15, etc.

[8timechamps]

This may sound awful right now, after this latest rampage, but while cruising thru Seeking Alpha, I happened to run across a story about Smith/Wesson and Sturm/Ruger.
Both stocks had run up an incredible amount this year, and recently pulled back sharply. I wonder what the impact of the latest shooting will have on these companies? There are the twin possibilities of laws to curtail sales in the future, as well as short term increased sales.

Wall Street generally seems only interested in the short term, yet both had bad days yesterday. Some of it may have been associated with dividends being declared, I think.

I hesitated to even post this, less someone might question the timing, but a head in the sand approach never helps anything.


I don't own those stocks, but incidents like the one that just happened may have a short term effect, but it won't last. The only thing that could really affect these companies (from a legislative point) is if the gun laws were to significantly change, and reduce the ability of potential buyers to purchase guns.

I'm right with pphilfran, defense cutbacks would have a much bigger (and longer lasting) affect.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Roll, tide, roll! I love me some physcal klif!

[pphilfran]

APPL rallied up to the 533 level and hasn't broke through...is it going to keep testing the high or go back down to 510...

I want some news...good or bad, I don't give a crap...we gotta get this thing moving!

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I was thinking about the early days of CNBC, how every break for commercials contained one for either Berger 100 and 101 funds (run by white-bearded William Berger and son) or Kaufmann fund (run by Larry Auriana and Hans Utsch).

I guess the funds morphed into something else, but I wonder what happened to investors' fortunes who never sold shares.

Any of y'all ever buy into them?

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Some deal, whether before and after Jan 1, big or small, a solution or a can kicked down the road again, will get done. I think the market reaction will be "sell on the news" which will lead to a good buying opportunity for those who have been on the sideline. I'm all in, so I'll ride it out.

[pphilfran]

I was thinking about the early days of CNBC, how every break for commercials contained one for either Berger 100 and 101 funds (run by white-bearded William Berger and son) or Kaufmann fund (run by Larry Auriana and Hans Utsch).

I guess the funds morphed into something else, but I wonder what happened to investors' fortunes who never sold shares.

Any of y'all ever buy into them?

I remember both commercials...

Nearly bought into Berger 100...I think Janus took them over...I did own some Janus 20

[cleller]

I remember both commercials...

Nearly bought into Berger 100...I think Janus took them over...I did own some Janus 20

What a blast from the past. I remember just what you are talking about. I even had some money in the Kaufmann Fund for awhile, but cannot remember when or why I got out.

Ran across this story talking about their non-stop advertising and soliciting, kinda interesting:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/1998/09/01/247710/index.htm

[8timechamps]

I was thinking about the early days of CNBC, how every break for commercials contained one for either Berger 100 and 101 funds (run by white-bearded William Berger and son) or Kaufmann fund (run by Larry Auriana and Hans Utsch).

I guess the funds morphed into something else, but I wonder what happened to investors' fortunes who never sold shares.

Any of y'all ever buy into them?

I was so into Fidelity Magellan that I thought most other funds were crap. Of course I was a young, inexperienced investor. Good question though, I'll have to float some feelers out and see if I can find anyone that got into Berger.

[pphilfran]

High flyers from days past...

Magellan
20th Century Ultra
Janus 20


Anybody buy Amgen at the early stages? It was a big driver of Ultra and Janus growth...

1990 - $1
1995 - $7
2000 - $68

[pphilfran]

Apple 509...

What is up with gold? Where is the money going?

[cleller]

So what's going to happen Monday? If some deal is made over the weekend, a modest jump?

More likely, with no agreement, any bets on how bad will the drop be? I'd been waiting for the hammer over the summer, which never happened.
What a mess, there is enough anxiety with the markets already without our leaders throwing wrenches at it.

[pphilfran]

I don't see a big sell off if nothing happens Monday...

They have enough tricks in their bag to keep thing running for a period of time...

I think long term implications will be greater...

We had our credit cut because of the ineptitude over the last negotiations...this isn't going to help in that regard...

Consumer confidence has already dropped and that will only slow spending and do further harm to the economy...

And when they eventually come up with a plan it will do little to actually correct the situation...

[cleller]

Take yesterday (I think), the Dow dropped 150 points during a press conference about the cliff, then later recovered most of it.

Seems like if the cliff actually happens, the micro-second outlook guys will really get unstable.

This little slideshow of the worst drops of the Dow- point wise- is interesting and unnerving. Five of the top ten drops came in 2008. Another one was in August 2011, over the debt ceiling.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/28/dow-jones-fiscal-cliff_n_2377568.html#slide=767930

[SanJoaquinSooner]

As I mentioned earlier, I'm all in for the long term. But for short term thinking, moving in on a sell-off during the next two months makes sense to me.

[pphilfran]

As I mentioned earlier, I'm all in for the long term. But for short term thinking, moving in on a sell-off during the next two months makes sense to me.

I am in the opposite camp, especially if they make significant spending cuts in a month or two...this deal just pulled 2% of all discretionary spending, couple that with increased healthcare spending and imo I think we would then be on the recession highway...

[pphilfran]

With that said I am sticking with my 50% allotment to stocks...being 60 I am staying on the conservative side...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

With that said I am sticking with my 50% allotment to stocks...being 60 I am staying on the conservative side...

Have you decided how much longer you plan to work?

[pphilfran]

Have you decided how much longer you plan to work?

I am already tapering off...down to about 30 hours per week....but I will keep after it till at least 65 and even then I will continue to work part time...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I am already tapering off...down to about 30 hours per week....but I will keep after it till at least 65 and even then I will continue to work part time...

I'm shooting for 70 before I retire and start drawing Social Security and from my retirement funds.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Let me know when you guys get in ... so I know we've reached the top!

[cleller]

Today was one of those days that ends up on a graph illustrating how a few days a year make all the difference.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

nm

[pphilfran]

Let me know when you guys get in ... so I know we've reached the top!

Can't help ya....I have a hard enough time picking the best stocks...trying to also time the market is beyond me....

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Can't help ya....I have a hard enough time picking the best stocks...trying to also time the market is beyond me....

I agree. If I tried to be a market timer, I would lose my ***.

[8timechamps]

Haven't been able to post in this thread recently, but thought I would share something interesting I saw today.

I use Pershing Square for some fund management, and got an email today talking about one of the funds shorting the HerbaLife stock (HLB). The manager believes that Herbalife is basically a giant panzi scheme, and the house of cards will fall. The group (Pershing) shorted (or will short) something like a billion dollars of Herbalife.

I don't know much about HLB, but I thought the whole thing was interesting. HLB actually finished the day with a gain, but it's going to be interesting to watch this all play out.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Haven't been able to post in this thread recently, but thought I would share something interesting I saw today.

I use Pershing Square for some fund management, and got an email today talking about one of the funds shorting the HerbaLife stock (HLB). The manager believes that Herbalife is basically a giant panzi scheme, and the house of cards will fall. The group (Pershing) shorted (or will short) something like a billion dollars of Herbalife.

I don't know much about HLB, but I thought the whole thing was interesting. HLB actually finished the day with a gain, but it's going to be interesting to watch this all play out.

I wouldn't get involved in Herbalife, but somehow it's managed to stick around for decades. I thought it sounded scammish 30 years ago.

[cleller]

Haven't been able to post in this thread recently, but thought I would share something interesting I saw today.

I use Pershing Square for some fund management, and got an email today talking about one of the funds shorting the HerbaLife stock (HLB). The manager believes that Herbalife is basically a giant panzi scheme, and the house of cards will fall. The group (Pershing) shorted (or will short) something like a billion dollars of Herbalife.

I don't know much about HLB, but I thought the whole thing was interesting. HLB actually finished the day with a gain, but it's going to be interesting to watch this all play out.

Read a story about the hedge fund manager and his slide show detailing how Herbalife is ponzi-like, and he is shorting it. It ending up dropping about 28%, so I guess he must have made out pretty well. That must be the legal way to manipulate stock prices.

On the Apple topic, there was a good article on Yahoo finance highlight how cheap some of the big "old tech" stocks are these days. Intel, Cisco, MSFT, Dell, Apple, etc, all have low multiples, and some have good dividends, but are unloved because of the rush into mobile devices. Probably an ETF out there somewhere specializing in these companies.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/old-tech-stocks-cheap-unloved-beckon-investors-172553691.html?l=1

[SanJoaquinSooner]

check out this Herbalife investigative report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100364629

[8timechamps]

I wouldn't get involved in Herbalife, but somehow it's managed to stick around for decades. I thought it sounded scammish 30 years ago.

Agreed. The first time I was "introduced" to Herbalife, it felt eerily familiar to panzi schemes. Any time you hear "...then you hire people to sell it, then they hire people to sell it...and you profit from all of them", then you know it's just not "right".

[8timechamps]

Read a story about the hedge fund manager and his slide show detailing how Herbalife is ponzi-like, and he is shorting it. It ending up dropping about 28%, so I guess he must have made out pretty well. That must be the legal way to manipulate stock prices.

On the Apple topic, there was a good article on Yahoo finance highlight how cheap some of the big "old tech" stocks are these days. Intel, Cisco, MSFT, Dell, Apple, etc, all have low multiples, and some have good dividends, but are unloved because of the rush into mobile devices. Probably an ETF out there somewhere specializing in these companies.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/old-tech-stocks-cheap-unloved-beckon-investors-172553691.html?l=1

Yep, the big money sets the markets. They can also move the markets. However, if there is something "fishy" when a stock moves (due to a manager buying/selling a ton), it's usually sniffed out and the stock will correct itself. In this case, I'm not sure that Pershing is too far off on their guess. It'll be interesting to watch.

As for Apple, they're really going to focus on being "vertical" this year. They want to buy up suppliers and shorten the supply chain. They certainly have the money to make some moves, and there are plenty of "big name" companies that are cheap enough to get swallowed up.

[8timechamps]

check out this Herbalife investigative report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100364629

From that report:



On Wednesday, a regulatory filed showed that Third Point's Dan Loeb had taken an eight percent stake in the company, pitting him again another hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, who has shorted more than 20 million shares of Herbalife, roughly a quarter of the shares outstanding — a bet that the stock will fall.

Someone's gonna lose. Whenever I see two big time fund manager disagree this much over a stock, it makes me wonder what in the hell they know. I have to side with Ackman/Pershing in this, Herbalife is going to take a bath at some point...soon. But, there is no way I would recommend a short in that position.

[pphilfran]

Appl - 502...better hold or batten down the hatches...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Appl - 502...better hold or batten down the hatches...

I just listened to the bear's technical argument against Apple. It goes: "history shows that every bull run has a "must buy" stock or two that drives the market, and for this bull run it has been Apple. When the market turns, the "must buy" ALWAYS loses 50 to 80% of its top value. So if we turn to a bear market later this year, Apple will fall to somewhere between 140 and 350." The guy said this is in spite of Apple being a great company.

The fundamental argument is that Apple will no longer be a high margin retailer that it once was. The bulk of the products will be sold with much lower margins. So it has to sell lots more to keep pace.

My main mututal fund manager seems to always have 3 to 5% of the funds' holdings in Apple. Fine with me. I'm not expecting a bear market this year and in any case, I can ride out a bear market - unless it's worse than Japan's - and then I'll either die young or work until I'm 75.

[hawaii 5-0]

Diversification is the key.

A little bit here, a little bit there......

I just bought some BHP Billitron, McDonald's, Molex, and General Mills

feel free to comment...


5-0

[8timechamps]

Diversification is the key.

A little bit here, a little bit there......

I just bought some BHP Billitron, McDonald's, Molex, and General Mills

feel free to comment...


5-0

If you don't own McKesson (MCK), you should. It's hovering around a 52 week high, so you may wait for a pullback, but it's a great company that's in an industry that provides limitless customers.

[cleller]

Diversification is the key.

A little bit here, a little bit there......

I just bought some BHP Billitron, McDonald's, Molex, and General Mills

feel free to comment...


5-0

I bought BHP several months back, and its done OK. I see both BHP and Rio Tinto were downgraded today, but I don't really care. If you're the biggest mining operation in the world, you should continue to make money. It was a long term deal. I keep claiming I'm going full into index ETFs, yet I can't stop making exceptions.

Lordy, MCK has done great. Stinking hindsight.

[8timechamps]

I bought BHP several months back, and its done OK. I see both BHP and Rio Tinto were downgraded today, but I don't really care. If you're the biggest mining operation in the world, you should continue to make money. It was a long term deal. I keep claiming I'm going full into index ETFs, yet I can't stop making exceptions.

Lordy, MCK has done great. Stinking hindsight.

I've had people in MCK for quiet a while, and it has done well.

I don't know cleller, part of the fun of investing is picking stocks. I'm not saying everyone needs to do it all the time, but as long as you keep it diversified, individual stocks can be rewarding.

[8timechamps]

I'm officially out of Apple.

Still have some clients that would not budge, but was able to trim positions for all but one person (who will probably go to her grave owning AAPL).

Apple has a lot of plans to become more vertical, but I'm too spooked by the lackluster performance and the weak foreseeable future. I've held Apple for a long time, and waited until this month to bail (taxes didn't motivate me, but it didn't hurt).

Anyone still in?

[pphilfran]

I might start taking a small holding...wouldn't surprise me that it goes to four hundred before it gets better...earnings next week I think....wish I had shorted it...

[hawaii 5-0]

I'm officially out of Apple.

Still have some clients that would not budge, but was able to trim positions for all but one person (who will probably go to her grave owning AAPL).

Apple has a lot of plans to become more vertical, but I'm too spooked by the lackluster performance and the weak foreseeable future. I've held Apple for a long time, and waited until this month to bail (taxes didn't motivate me, but it didn't hurt).

Anyone still in?


I've still got some shares, most of which I got for less than $100.

I'm diversified enough that I don't worry about losing my extra profit. I already got a new car outta my APPL.

5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

APPL up $22 today. It's not for the faint-hearted.

5-0

[pphilfran]

It will bounce around for another week until they announce earnings next Wednesday...I think competition is going to squeeze their margins moving forward....imo they need another big product release or they will face tough sledding in the future....

[hawaii 5-0]

I though Apple was gonna get into the TV market.

I never know for sure. Lots of speculators and anal-ists out there.

5-0

[pphilfran]

I though Apple was gonna get into the TV market.

I never know for sure. Lots of speculators and anal-ists out there.

5-0

Been rumblings for a while...

[8timechamps]

Of course, I sell out of the position a day early...damn crystal ball.

It doesn't hurt too bad though, cost basis was very low.

[pphilfran]

Of course, I sell out of the position a day early...damn crystal ball.

It doesn't hurt too bad though, cost basis was very low.

It will probably zoom to 1000 over the next week....

[8timechamps]

It will probably zoom to 1000 over the next week....

You laugh, but I've been on the wrong end of similar runs...

[pphilfran]

Me, laugh?

[cleller]

Despite the negativity on Smith and Wesson, (and Ruger) I got in a couple weeks ago. Its been bumpy, but had a couple good days, despite the gun policies.
It seems like there's no way their earnings over the next few months don't exceed expectations. They don't report again until March. I wonder if the analysts following these gun companies really appreciate the sales they are making throughout the middle of the country.

Of course, Rahm Emanuel is campaigning for pension funds to dump gun stocks. Nothing is ever easy.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Nikkei is on fire! up almost 3% today - up about 27% for the last 12 months.

[pphilfran]

Another 350% and it will be at it's Dec 1989 high :)

It has had a good run...it needs to move strong above 11k

Too bad Europe didn't tag along today...

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Cramer says, Avoid both sides (long and short) of the herbalife hedge funds battle - like the plague. For spectators only.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100389459

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Another 350% and it will be at it's Dec 1989 high :)

It has had a good run...it needs to move strong above 11k

Too bad Europe didn't tag along today...

Yes, it was the bubble of all bubbles. Like my home will never again, in my lifetime, have the value it had in 2004 .... but fortunately, I didn't pay the 2004 price.

If you lump sum bought Japan at its hottest, you were ****ed for good.

[cleller]

Next bubble to pop: Iowa farmland?

Sooner or later it will become impossible for the government to continue paying people to grow corn to burn for fuel. You'd think we'd already be there. We've got a Cadillac farm and energy policy, with a used-car income.

[8timechamps]

Part of my excitement over Apple last year was that they were going to bring out their smart TV. Well, it still hasn't happened. I saw this mentioned in an article from Yahoo Finance today:


But hitting estimates is less than half the story for Apple at this point. Far more concerning is the company's uninspired business model. Last year at this time rumors were everywhere that Apple was on the verge of "solving" television. According to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO at KKM Financial, rumors out of China this year involve seven or eight new products including low-end smartphones, a larger screen for the iPhone and, yes, Apple television.

Am I reading that right, Apple is going to introduce their smart TV in China?

[SanJoaquinSooner]

For the little guy, the reasonable way to handle something like Apple is to dollar cost average through the valley - unless you honestly believe its asymptote is P(x) = 0.

Just look at Facebook. You can search this thread and read the premature eulogies. But if you had purchased 100 shares at the beginning of each month since it went public, you would have paid $19, 534 + transaction costs and those shares would now be worth $24,960. That's a 27.7% return over an 8 month period.

The little guy just shouldn't overfocus on quarterly returns and day to day technical factors. Apple will be back, but nobody knows the bottom of this valley.

[pphilfran]

For the little guy, the reasonable way to handle something like Apple is to dollar cost average through the valley - unless you honestly believe its asymptote is P(x) = 0.

Just look at Facebook. You can search this thread and read the premature eulogies. But if you had purchased 100 shares at the beginning of each month since it went public, you would have paid $19, 534 + transaction costs and those shares would now be worth $24,960. That's a 27.7% return over an 8 month period.

The little guy just shouldn't overfocus on quarterly returns and day to day technical factors. Apple will be back, but nobody knows the bottom of this valley.

I agree with the dollar cost average principle...you should also rebalance each quarter so that a stock like Apple won't end up being too large a stake...rebalancing also forces you to sell high and buy low...

[8timechamps]

I'm sure we've covered this at least two other times in this thread, but any smart investor will use DCA and re-balance quarterly. Anything else is speculation.

[pphilfran]

I'm sure we've covered this at least two other times in this thread, but any smart investor will use DCA and re-balance quarterly. Anything else is speculation.

DCA is pretty well known, understood, and used....quarterly rebalancing is mostly ignored...

[8timechamps]

DCA is pretty well known, understood, and used....quarterly rebalancing is mostly ignored...

Very true. It's hard to convince people to sell positions that are up and strong, it's easy to convince people to sell low. What's funny is that most people* buy high and sell low (although they know better).

*Maybe not "most", but a lot.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I'm sure we've covered this at least two other times in this thread, but any smart investor will use DCA and re-balance quarterly. Anything else is speculation.

8tc,

I brought it up in regards to Facebook. Nobody was recommending DCA Facebook.

[hawaii 5-0]

Some good discussion.

Good stocks are worth holding onto. I wished I'd bought Coke (KO) back in the 70's. Same with McDonalds and GE. Or IBM. Alas.

I'd rather pad my holdings with good stocks and have some chancier ones to play around with. Take a chance, just not so much that if it tanks you can't stand the hit.

I wish there were some good bonds with decent rates but those days are gone for now. Things aren't as 'safe' as they used to be.

5-0

[hawaii 5-0]

About Dollar Cost Averaging......

I did that when I was into mutual funds. It was during the Clinton years and they did very, very well.

Allowed me to come up with my house down payment.

5-0

[sooneron]

Hmm, LNG is doing well, I wonder if I should dump what I have...

[8timechamps]

Hmm, LNG is doing well, I wonder if I should dump what I have...

Depends, are you overweight in that sector? The analyst I use has a 22.50 target, it's almost there now. Might not be a bad time to trim (if you're overweight energy).

[8timechamps]

RIM is unveiling the new Blackberry on Wednesday, it'll be interesting to see how the stock reacts.

Anyone own RIM?

[sooneron]

Depends, are you overweight in that sector? The analyst I use has a 22.50 target, it's almost there now. Might not be a bad time to trim (if you're overweight energy).

If I'm overweight anywhere, it's biochem etc...

[8timechamps]

If I'm overweight anywhere, it's biochem etc...

Then trim it brotha!

Seriously, once a quarter, whether you want to, or not. Trim and/or add to get back to your allocation.

[cleller]

Hey, I guess its time to get back to the question of whether or not anyone is selling now, or just sticking with allocations. (?)

With the highs, I've seen a few stories raising the question, especially for retirees. I am revisiting all the stops on my ETFs, at least. (wish I had paid more attention to the use of a trailing stop).

If a downturn hit, riding it out would be less painful now that it was in 2008-2009, I hope.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

If I were retiring in 3 or less years, I'd be selling bit by bit .... but I'm not, so I'm not. I'll ride out a correction or another full mother bear market.

[pphilfran]

APPL held the 450 low...up to 481 today...bet it tests 500 shortly

[8timechamps]

Anyone read John Bogle's comments about ETFs? LINK (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/etf-trading-no-way-invest-says-bogle-140924616.html)


Wall Street legend John Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, says the temptation to trade is their ultimate short-coming.

He made some valid points, but I have to wonder how much is he trying to drive traffic back to Vanguard funds, and how much is he being sincere.

[FaninAma]

I think the biggest worry for stocks right now is softness in the bond market. The Fed and the various indebted governments around the world can't afford to allow bond interest rates to rise. As a consequence I expect a severe take down of the equity markets if investors appear to be withdrawing money from the bond market (seeking higher RoR in equities) at a rate that causes interest rates to rise.

[8timechamps]

I think the biggest worry for stocks right now is softness in the bond market. The Fed and the various indebted governments around the world can't afford to allow bond interest rates to rise. As a consequence I expect a severe take down of the equity markets if investors appear to be withdrawing money from the bond market (seeking higher RoR in equities) at a rate that causes interest rates to rise.

Your theory is correct, however, I think the exodus from the bond market to equities has already occurred. My concern is that the Fed is propping the markets up, but has no play left if it turns south.

[cleller]

Anyone read John Bogle's comments about ETFs? LINK (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/etf-trading-no-way-invest-says-bogle-140924616.html)



He made some valid points, but I have to wonder how much is he trying to drive traffic back to Vanguard funds, and how much is he being sincere.

Had me worried for a minute, as I'm a big ETF fan now. I stick to the indexes, though, so I guess he approves of those.

[8timechamps]

Had me worried for a minute, as I'm a big ETF fan now. I stick to the indexes, though, so I guess he approves of those.

As I mentioned in my initial post, I'm not sure if he's really that tough on them or if it's an attempt to drive investors back to mutual funds. I love ETFs, and use them a lot.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Let's assume you retire at age 66 and that you need real, or inflation-adjusted, income of $60,000 a year, $20,000 of which will come from Social Security. And let's also say you have $1 million in savings and that you divvy up that nest egg equally between stocks and bonds in order to have a reasonable balance between long-term growth and short-term protection against market setbacks.

If you think of Social Security only as a stream of income and forget about the fact that it's also kind of like a bond, then the issue you face boils down to how to get the rest of the income you need from your $1 million nest egg. If you go to an online retirement calculator, plug in savings of $1 million, an allocation of 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds and assume a $40,000 initial withdrawal that is annually increased by inflation, you'll see that there's a roughly 80% chance your savings will last at least 30 years.

But this approach ignores the fact that Social Security also acts somewhat like a big bond.

Indeed, many economists would say that you don't just have $1 million in assets. You have $1 million, plus a "Social Security" bond that makes inflation-adjusted payments of $20,000 a year. They'd also say that by not taking that bond into account, you may be investing too cautiously, ending up with more in bonds than you should. In so doing, you may be giving up a significant amount of investment return, and extra retirement income.

You can argue about how to set the value of that Social Security bond. But in today's interest rate environment, William Meyer of Social Security Solutions, a firm that helps people decide when to claim their benefits, estimates its value would be roughly $500,000 for someone whose full retirement age for Social Security purposes is 66 and who begins collecting payments at that age.

Considered from this vantage point, you would have the equivalent of $1.5 million -- $1 million in savings, plus a Social Security bond valued at $500,000. Which means if you want to maintain an investment mix of 50% stocks and 50% bonds, you would put $750,000 of your $1 million savings into stocks.

The remaining $250,000 would go into bonds, which, combined with your $500,000 Social Security bond, would give you $750,000 in bonds overall, resulting in an effective 50-50 stocks-bonds split for the $1.5 million.

[8timechamps]

Let's assume you retire at age 66 and that you need real, or inflation-adjusted, income of $60,000 a year, $20,000 of which will come from Social Security. And let's also say you have $1 million in savings and that you divvy up that nest egg equally between stocks and bonds in order to have a reasonable balance between long-term growth and short-term protection against market setbacks.

If you think of Social Security only as a stream of income and forget about the fact that it's also kind of like a bond, then the issue you face boils down to how to get the rest of the income you need from your $1 million nest egg. If you go to an online retirement calculator, plug in savings of $1 million, an allocation of 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds and assume a $40,000 initial withdrawal that is annually increased by inflation, you'll see that there's a roughly 80% chance your savings will last at least 30 years.

But this approach ignores the fact that Social Security also acts somewhat like a big bond.

Indeed, many economists would say that you don't just have $1 million in assets. You have $1 million, plus a "Social Security" bond that makes inflation-adjusted payments of $20,000 a year. They'd also say that by not taking that bond into account, you may be investing too cautiously, ending up with more in bonds than you should. In so doing, you may be giving up a significant amount of investment return, and extra retirement income.

You can argue about how to set the value of that Social Security bond. But in today's interest rate environment, William Meyer of Social Security Solutions, a firm that helps people decide when to claim their benefits, estimates its value would be roughly $500,000 for someone whose full retirement age for Social Security purposes is 66 and who begins collecting payments at that age.

Considered from this vantage point, you would have the equivalent of $1.5 million -- $1 million in savings, plus a Social Security bond valued at $500,000. Which means if you want to maintain an investment mix of 50% stocks and 50% bonds, you would put $750,000 of your $1 million savings into stocks.

The remaining $250,000 would go into bonds, which, combined with your $500,000 Social Security bond, would give you $750,000 in bonds overall, resulting in an effective 50-50 stocks-bonds split for the $1.5 million.

I would never consider Social Security as part of ones investment assets for retirement. When I develop a financial plans for clients, I always complete two scenarios, one with Social Security and one without.

The most difficult part of completing a financial plan is the rate assumptions for the various asset classes. 9 times out of 10, I calculate equities using the historical ROR of the market less a cost of living adjustment. This gives me a conservative estimate. I do the same for fixed income and cash. Projecting the Social Security COLA is a riskier proposition, as the future of the fund itself is questionable, let alone any consistent COLA.

The majority of my clients don't view SSI as something to depend on during retirement, and I would assume someone that wants $60k/year in post retirement income would probably be right on the dividing line of those that do count on it and those that don't.

While I find it interesting to look at retirement planning (specifically Social Security), and placing a value on the fund, it's too inconsistent for me to be comfortable including it as part of someone's investment assets.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

For the over 50 person, a "no Social Security" scenario would be a doomsday scenario. In that case, you best be well stocked in guns and butter. They'll be more valuable than gold. I doubt stocks and bonds would do you much good.

Short of a doomsday, the over 50 crowd will get their social security. There is some chance the rate of increase will decrease, but that is the downside risk.

For the under 50 crowd, short of a doomsday, they will also get social security in old age, although the amount may be a bit less than current projections.

[cleller]

I'm 50, and will not get SS because I'm covered by a pension. Fine scenario with me. My wife will get SS, assuming its not gutted.

As far as the stocks/bonds, I've been a dollar cost averager into funds for about 25 years, riding it up and down. This time, now that it is back up, I've lost my stomach for another fall. I'm a believer in not playing the game if you don't have to. As in, once you hit the place where you can get by without worrying about chasing return, then don't. Now we are back at what I consider the threshold of the end of the game.

The trouble is the right now, the game has been changed with the artificial interest rates. You're forced back into the markets, or into non traditional ways to keep your equity. Guns being a great example right now. I am glad I bought some SWHC (Smith/Wesson) and RGR (Ruger) a few months ago. I'm keeping a trailing stop on them, too, though.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Cleller, yes, of course, there are people who are exempt from social security because they are covered by another government pension program. So your retirement planning wouldn't include anticipated SS. If you wife is around the same age as you, her planning should include expected social security retirement benefits, although the amount could conceivably be a few percent less than current projections. Even if the played with age eligibility, it would be on the under 50 crowd.

[cleller]

Interestingly, in all the retirement income planning, I've never really taken into account her SS. Its more to do with an over-conservative nature than doubt in the government, though. She's a couple years younger than me, so its still a long way off. If it does come thru it will be a nice bonus, probably just when we need it most for incredibly health/insurance costs.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Interestingly, in all the retirement income planning, I've never really taken into account her SS. Its more to do with an over-conservative nature than doubt in the government, though. She's a couple years younger than me, so its still a long way off. If it does come thru it will be a nice bonus, probably just when we need it most for incredibly health/insurance costs.

If you figure 90% of her projected SS retirement benefits, then I believe that is very conservative. The other important factor is the age at which she starts withdrawing. If I remember correctly, it increases 8% for every year you wait from 62 to 70. Some would argue, if you can afford to wait, 8% is a pretty good return with very little risk.


Not certain on the 8% figure.

[8timechamps]

If you figure 90% of her projected SS retirement benefits, then I believe that is very conservative. The other important factor is the age at which she starts withdrawing. If I remember correctly, it increases 8% for every year you wait from 62 to 70. Some would argue, if you can afford to wait, 8% is a pretty good return with very little risk.


Not certain on the 8% figure.

99.9% of the time, it's advantageous to take your SSI at 62. You have to start looking at mortality and determine how long you need to live to recap the benefits you gave up by waiting. I think in 20+ years, I've advised one client to take their SSI at 65.

[8timechamps]

Interestingly, in all the retirement income planning, I've never really taken into account her SS. Its more to do with an over-conservative nature than doubt in the government, though. She's a couple years younger than me, so its still a long way off. If it does come thru it will be a nice bonus, probably just when we need it most for incredibly health/insurance costs.

Most of the clients I have don't want to include SSI in their planning. So, you're not alone.

[8timechamps]

For the over 50 person, a "no Social Security" scenario would be a doomsday scenario. In that case, you best be well stocked in guns and butter. They'll be more valuable than gold. I doubt stocks and bonds would do you much good.

Short of a doomsday, the over 50 crowd will get their social security. There is some chance the rate of increase will decrease, but that is the downside risk.

For the under 50 crowd, short of a doomsday, they will also get social security in old age, although the amount may be a bit less than current projections.

It all depends on what kind of planning they've done. Like I said in my first response, the majority of my clients don't include SSI in retirement planning, because most of my clients have the assets to provide their desired retirement income without considering SSI.

What I've learned in all my time is that the folks that started planning for retirement early, don't depend on it to live on in retirement.

For my personal planning (and I'm in the under 50 crowd...not by much though), I never include SSI. If it's there when I retire, great. If not, great.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I'm loving Amanda Drury's cleavage on CNBC today.

[8timechamps]

I'm loving Amanda Drury's cleavage on CNBC today.

I concur.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

99.9% of the time, it's advantageous to take your SSI at 62. You have to start looking at mortality and determine how long you need to live to recap the benefits you gave up by waiting. I think in 20+ years, I've advised one client to take their SSI at 65.

8timer, I wonder if my situation falls into that 0.1% of the time.

I'm 10 years older than Maria, my wife. And my salary history will give me a much larger SS retirement benefit.

Using the benefit estimates I got from AARP website I calculated the total amount we'd get if we both took benefits at 62, assuming I live to 76 and she lives to 81 (not unreasonable assumptions). Then I calculated the total amount received if I delay receiving benefits until age 70 and she waits until her full retirement age of 67. If I die, she can begin receiving my benefit amount (for the assumed period of 15 years she would be a widow).

The later total amount was over $200,000 greater. The widow benefit pays off big time - especially by me getting the max at age 70.

Now during my 60s we aren't getting anything, but we don't need it if we are both still working.

If either of us lives longer than the assumed 76 and 81, the difference is even greater.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

It all depends on what kind of planning they've done. Like I said in my first response, the majority of my clients don't include SSI in retirement planning, because most of my clients have the assets to provide their desired retirement income without considering SSI.

What I've learned in all my time is that the folks that started planning for retirement early, don't depend on it to live on in retirement.

For my personal planning (and I'm in the under 50 crowd...not by much though), I never include SSI. If it's there when I retire, great. If not, great.


When I was a teenager, I used to hide a $10 bill in the secret compartment of my wallet, hoping to forget about it and then months later, surprising myself with a discovered windfall of $10. I think it may have worked once, which was great.

But there is a chance of an opportunity cost to hiding money from yourself. Maybe there was something I really, really wanted to do or wanted to buy, but I denied myself because I didn't think I had the money to do it.


If you have a projected $500,000 SS benefit that you don't incorporate into your retirement planning, you may save more than you need. Not the worst problem in the world, but there may be opportunity costs.