Decommitments and flipping

[Jacie]

On CNN I found this:

The Commitment Project: studying recruits, college football edition


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_staples/01/20/commitment.project/index.html?xid=cnnbin

It is a long article so I will summarize some of the points rather than posting all of it.

The author charted Rivals Top 100 recruit decommits over a 5-year period, 2007-2011. Included data were a player's first commit, who signed with, where they wound up and what happened to them.

He found that over that period, 73 (14.6%) decommitted at some point in the recruiting process. Of these, 62 (12.4%) signed with another school.

This next part is significant. Of the players who decommitted, 34.2 percent either failed to qualify, transferred or were dismissed.

Compare that number to this one. Of the players who made one commitment and stuck to it, only 18.7 percent either failed to qualify, transferred or were dismissed.

That's 1 in 3 versus 1 in 5, people.

For fairness, the author then pointed out a couple of players who went the other way, decommits who excelled at another school including:

That isn't to say an indecisive player can't succeed. After all, safety Tony Jefferson committed to Stanford and UCLA before signing with Oklahoma in 2010. As a sophomore, Jefferson finished third on the team in tackles and will be one of the Sooners' top returning defenders in 2012.

The article then focused on flippers, coaches who have successfully taken commits from other schools. Among two of the more successful are Lane Kiffin and Urban Meyer.

Each flipped five top-100 players during the five-year period.

And of the schools, Florida and Tennessee tied for the most top-100 players flipped with six each. Florida and USC, meanwhile, tied for the most top-100 players lost with six each.

Yes, Florida is both a top flipper and top flipped school, while Lane Kiffin is associated with a top flipper and top flipped school . . .

[BoulderSooner79]

Very interesting article - thanks for posting. It makes sense that kids that have a hard time committing may be more likely to have a hard time succeeding. It takes a lot of commitment to succeed at the college level, so that trait needs to be inherent. But I know lots of people like Tony Jefferson too - they have a hard time deciding, but once decided, they are all in. So you can't make a sweeping conclusion about all these players. I'm glad we didn't pull the scholly offers Jefferson or Broyles just because they waffled a bit.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Honestly, the only decommit that we've had that ended up being any good was Jeremy Maclin.

[Frozen Sooner]

Unless you count Robert Meachem, who never officially committed but sure as hell told our coaches he was coming.

[OU_Sooners75]

Wasnt Kendall Wright Committed to us?
What about Britt, the OL that is now at Texass, wasn't he committed to us as well?

JKM, there was a few more than just one that was committed to us that turned out pretty good.

[goingoneight]

Not really. He's a big name, no doubt. But Markelle Martin, Jeff Fuller, and the kid from Baylor ended up doing alright. There's one at Tech, too.
Hard to say what impact those guys have with OU talent around them.

As for the suggestion that decommits might not be such a big deal, Jefferson and Broyles have been great for us. Recruiting is ALWAYS about the work that the individual puts in to showcase his talent once he's here. Give me Dominique Whaley over Malcolm Brown and Mark Clayton over Josh Jarboe any day. Recruiting stars are nothing more than a guess on who's who. It doesn't measure who truly is the best you can get

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I haven't followed recruiting for a while but you make some good points. I honestly think we were better off without Fuller, he acted like such a baby on the field this year.

[goingoneight]

Unless you count Robert Meachem, who never officially committed but sure as hell told our coaches he was coming.

I never did hear where this rumor got started. I knew RM since we were kids. Obviously we've lost touch NOW, but all the way up to senior year he was ALWAYS a Vols fan. He picked on OU fans (lovingly, of course) and he only looked into OU because he said they just got good all of a sudden when we were in HS. As I know it, no one else ever had a chance besides UT. He was the kind of fan who would go there even if they just went three straight years without a bowl and the last three National Champs offered him.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I never did hear where this rumor got started. I knew RM since we were kids. Obviously we've lost touch NOW, but all the way up to senior year he was ALWAYS a Vols fan. He picked on OU fans (lovingly, of course) and he only looked into OU because he said they just got good all of a sudden when we were in HS. As I know it, no one else ever had a chance besides UT. He was the kind of fan who would go there even if they just went three straight years without a bowl and the last three National Champs offered him.

Someone in Meachem's family told the coaches he was coming (I think the actual rumor was that it was his mother). Stoops actually held off his press conference on signing day until Meachem announced and actually had to take his name off the website for LOIs.

[sooneredaco]

Wasnt Kendall Wright Committed to us?
What about Britt, the OL that is now at Texass, wasn't he committed to us as well?

JKM, there was a few more than just one that was committed to us that turned out pretty good.

Tuck Fexas

[8timechamps]

I'm surprised we don't see more decommitting (at all schools). Seems like these kids are pushed so hard for an answer, that many of them just go with what the folks around them want. Nonetheless, in most cases when a kid decommits, he's better off for it (as is the school he was originally committed to).

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

Roy Miller, a 4-star lineman or LB who was our commit, and was actively recruiting for us, and then mysteriously(to me, anyway) switched to the cows. He had a good college football career in Gaystin, but i don't know if he made it in the ennefel or not.

[8timechamps]

Roy Miller, a 4-star lineman or LB who was our commit, and was actively recruiting for us, and then mysteriously(to me, anyway) switched to the cows. He had a good college football career in Gaystin, but i don't know if he made it in the ennefel or not.

I've seen that a couple of times this year. Mario Edwards is the first one that comes to mind. He was crazy about the Sooners after the FSU game, and was even quoted as saying "Oklahoma seems like the place for me". Then, he not only removes OU from his list, he makes it a point to badmouth OU in an interview a few weeks ago.

Just interesting...

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I've seen that a couple of times this year. Mario Edwards is the first one that comes to mind. He was crazy about the Sooners after the FSU game, and was even quoted as saying "Oklahoma seems like the place for me". Then, he not only removes OU from his list, he makes it a point to badmouth OU in an interview a few weeks ago.

Just interesting...

I just don't count Texas decommits anymore. Almost every kid tries to troll Texas for an offer after they get one for us.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Roy Miller, a 4-star lineman or LB who was our commit, and was actively recruiting for us, and then mysteriously(to me, anyway) switched to the cows. He had a good college football career in Gaystin, but i don't know if he made it in the ennefel or not.

Actually, Jesse Mahelona was an AA after he decommited from us to Tennessee.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

Actually, Jesse Mahelona was an AA after he decommited from us to Tennessee.Tennessee, surprisingly for a program as far away as it is, has been a thorn in our side for quite a while.

[northspeter]

Roy Miller, a 4-star lineman or LB who was our commit, and was actively recruiting for us, and then mysteriously(to me, anyway) switched to the cows. He had a good college football career in Gaystin, but i don't know if he made it in the ennefel or not.

hes been starting in the nfl for a couple years now... i think tampa bay...

[stoopified]

This is one of the reasons I really don't care one way or another about recruiting. I have decided that worrying about recruits is pointless. I have seen must-have recruits snub OU and bust at other schools, or suceed and it doesn't seem to stop OU from continuing to win. I have reached the conclusion that there is no such thing as must-have players.

[Whet]

Durron Neal??

[BajaOklahoma]

I read that too. I hope he is talking about something else....

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

I read that too. I hope he is talking about something else....???

[8timechamps]

I read that too. I hope he is talking about something else....

I don't think it has anything to do with recruiting. There's no point in trying to decipher Twitter messages that are that vague.

[goingoneight]

Isn't Neal supposed to be like a badass slot WR?

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

What TF did Neal say, and are you sure it was Durron Neal? (there's another WR Neal who lives out here in the PHX AZ area, who is being highly recruited, and is still uncommitted)

[LASooner]

Do you think we'll get Chip Ambres?

[StoopTroup]

This is one of the reasons I really don't care one way or another about recruiting. I have decided that worrying about recruits is pointless. I have seen must-have recruits snub OU and bust at other schools, or suceed and it doesn't seem to stop OU from continuing to win. I have reached the conclusion that there is no such thing as must-have players.

This has been my attitude for quite a few years but now it seems that folks are again becoming more and more involved and i have to say that these Games where these kids are picking up hats and have their Families with them are becoming very popular and they must be making the Advertisers money. With that in mind....there must be more and more of it to come in the future. If we see more....then it must mean that we might see more and more NCAA Regulation that will maybe require these kids to stick their promises when they announce it. Should that happen, I think we might see these show gain in popularity and see them as places the kids like to do it as their Families get to be on TV with them and they get a nice Weekend getting treated very Special by folks who think they have seen enough tape on these kids to give them that 4 or 5 star and really excite Fans as well as Coaches.