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View Full Version : How can any Republican beat Mitt at this point?



badger
1/12/2012, 02:12 PM
They're trying:

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Will they succeed?

How can they succeed?

Thoughts?

Midtowner
1/12/2012, 02:32 PM
Meh.. the Gingrich PAC is probably doing more harm than good to the Republican cause at this point. If they want to stand a chance of having a Republican President, they should probably all get behind Romney.

Ton Loc
1/12/2012, 02:49 PM
This is what I gather from the interwebs -

Ron Paul needs to compare Romney to Obama on several issues including the FED, TARP, 2nd Amendment Rights, DOE/NCLB, Constitutional War Powers, Healthcare, Immigration, and Abortion.

Apparently Rick Santorum needs to show voters he is the true conservative choice. He needs to stand out as the best not-Romney.

I think the others have zero shot. Ron is going to lose votes in states where independents aren't allowed. By then, Romney is going to be way ahead and the only chance for him to lose would have to be a giant rally of support and cash around Santorum. Plus, Santorum will have to hope to pick up the support from previous camps that have lost. (I doubt he's going to pick up any of Ron Paul's supporters.)

In the end - it will be Romney vs Obama.

The whitest guy that looks like the evil business owner, principal, teacher, authority figure, or any villain from every action movie/comedy versus the black guy that smokes, plays basketball, seems cool, but is heavily dis-liked and gets credit for doing everything and nothing at the same time.

KantoSooner
1/12/2012, 02:59 PM
Here's a little something of a gambit to consider:

Romney and Huntsman get together, not to offer Huntsman the VP - it's too early for that - but Huntsman nods out and Romney says, "I'm going to do something new: I'm going to tell you, the voters that, if elected, you're looking at your next Secretary of State."

That would leave him with dealing room on the VP slot, it would pull most of Huntsman's supporters over to Romney, making him effectively unbeatable in primaries and helping in the general election and shoring up against the inevitable strengthening of the conservative wing that will happen as either Santorum or Gingrich drop out. (And the conservatives will either vote for whoever the party nominates or sit out, they won't vote Obama no matter how pissed they are, so why pander to them if you're Romney?)

I don't see any reason why a presidential candidate can't start naming his cabinet before being elected. Sure it runs some risks, but Romney can position it as, "I'm the manager around here and, Lookee Here! I've got my team ready to go NOW."

badger
1/12/2012, 03:01 PM
I really don't think this race is over yet. The south is a lot different than Iowa and New Hampshire and not just South Carolina. Super Tuesday is not too far away.

How Mitt's campaign gets derailed:

1- A scandal is unveiled via the media. An affair, cheating on his taxes, an arrest, a lawsuit with bad implications... etc.

2- A gaffe. Not just "I like to fire people," but anything, really. A Howard Dean scream, falling off a podium because of a fake decorative border, not being able to remember "energy" as your third focus point, etc.

3- Endorsements. Not necessarily endorsements of opponents, but also, an embarrassing endorsement from someone you'd prefer to not have attached to your campaign, like Bill Clinton or somebody :D

4- Money dries up. This is a longshot, but not an impossibility. He's got a lot of money onhand, but he's also spending it a lot more than his opponents.

5- One primary loss. It will turn the tide, because it will turn the media and the media will turn the voters.

okie52
1/12/2012, 03:08 PM
I really don't think this race is over yet. The south is a lot different than Iowa and New Hampshire and not just South Carolina. Super Tuesday is not too far away.

How Mitt's campaign gets derailed:

1- A scandal is unveiled via the media. An affair, cheating on his taxes, an arrest, a lawsuit with bad implications... etc.

2- A gaffe. Not just "I like to fire people," but anything, really. A Howard Dean scream, falling off a podium because of a fake decorative border, not being able to remember "energy" as your third focus point, etc.

3- Endorsements. Not necessarily endorsements of opponents, but also, an embarrassing endorsement from someone you'd prefer to not have attached to your campaign, like Bill Clinton or somebody :D

4- Money dries up. This is a longshot, but not an impossibility. He's got a lot of money onhand, but he's also spending it a lot more than his opponents.

5- One primary loss. It will turn the tide, because it will turn the media and the media will turn the voters.

6. Or if it is ever learned that Romney lived in Tulsa.

badger
1/12/2012, 03:20 PM
6. Or if it is ever learned that Romney lived in Tulsa.

Oh yeah, definitely. Little known fact: This is what caused Michelle Bachmann to end her campaign. She lived in Tulsa (as an ORU law school student), you know :D

And John Edwards in 2008? Ended his campaign right after stopping in Tulsa. You can even look it up --- he visited Tulsa on Jan. 29, 2008 and then on Jan. 30, 2008, ended his campaign. Coincidence? I think NOT. :D

What causes morbid depression and campaign doldrums in Tulsa? Change. We don't like it. We will "vote no" for everything, just because we don't like change. Unless, of course, you are in office, in which case, change is very good :D

okie52
1/12/2012, 03:43 PM
Oh yeah, definitely. Little known fact: This is what caused Michelle Bachmann to end her campaign. She lived in Tulsa (as an ORU law school student), you know :D

And John Edwards in 2008? Ended his campaign right after stopping in Tulsa. You can even look it up --- he visited Tulsa on Jan. 29, 2008 and then on Jan. 30, 2008, ended his campaign. Coincidence? I think NOT. :D

What causes morbid depression and campaign doldrums in Tulsa? Change. We don't like it. We will "vote no" for everything, just because we don't like change. Unless, of course, you are in office, in which case, change is very good :D

:D

Its a shame Obama never campaigned in Tulsa.

badger
1/12/2012, 04:16 PM
:D

Its a shame Obama never campaigned in Tulsa.

He did many smart things during the 2008 campaign. One of the most decisive things was taking states that were considered shoo-ins for the Republican nominee and making them battleground states. McCain didn't have the resources Obama did and couldn't keep up.

Alas, Oklahoma (and therefore, Tulsa) is only a campaign stop during primaries... and only if you're desperate for a win anywhere. I remember Joe Lieberman doing his morning coffee crap here and that John Edwards stop... but not much else. Serious candidates were probably in one of the other Super Tuesday spots

okie52
1/12/2012, 04:26 PM
He did many smart things during the 2008 campaign. One of the most decisive things was taking states that were considered shoo-ins for the Republican nominee and making them battleground states. McCain didn't have the resources Obama did and couldn't keep up.

Alas, Oklahoma (and therefore, Tulsa) is only a campaign stop during primaries... and only if you're desperate for a win anywhere. I remember Joe Lieberman doing his morning coffee crap here and that John Edwards stop... but not much else. Serious candidates were probably in one of the other Super Tuesday spots

Obama probably won't campaign here in 2012, either. He only lost all 77 counties the first time.

I wonder if President Boren will give another ringing endorsement this time?

SanJoaquinSooner
1/12/2012, 04:36 PM
I miss Herman and Michele.

StoopTroup
1/12/2012, 04:37 PM
Nobody votes in Tulsa or Oklahoma.

Why would anyone come here except that some blind Corporation had given a ****load of money to one of their Campaigns or PACs?

StoopTroup
1/12/2012, 04:39 PM
I miss Herman and Michele.

They would have made much prettier babies than McCain and Palin.

StoopTroup
1/12/2012, 04:45 PM
They're trying:

x-4bm5NxqPY

Will they succeed?

How can they succeed?

Thoughts?


I almost thought that was a Democratic Campaign against Mitt. Amazing how they have gone as low as this to keep from addressing the problems we have in America. Also....as long as they all continue to keep saying Corporations are people....Americans won't vote for any of them....at least not a lot of Middle Income folks will.

KantoSooner
1/12/2012, 04:53 PM
Oklahoma will vote en masse, for whoever is put up by the Republicans. Thus there is a) no point for the Democrat to campaign here and, b) no point for the Republican to campaign here. We're not in play.
And during the primaries we're overwhelmed by the number of delegates in other states. Nice, really. Keeps it peaceful.

Ton Loc
1/12/2012, 05:00 PM
Oklahoma will vote en masse, for whoever is put up by the Republicans. Thus there is a) no point for the Democrat to campaign here and, b) no point for the Republican to campaign here. We're not in play.
And during the primaries we're overwhelmed by the number of delegates in other states. Nice, really. Keeps it peaceful.

C) No point to vote.

A lot of people feel this way, but I still vote. There's all those state questions, judges, and other various things that no one really understands to vote on. Plus, my polling place is at a junior high where they make kids bring snacks for extra credit.

badger
1/12/2012, 05:08 PM
Oh yeah, for anyone being all like "nyah nyah, my vote cancels yours out!" remember that there are tons of elections to vote on, not just president (although Oklahoma Election Commish will be quick to point out that if you just want to vote fore president, you don't have to check any other boxes... or rather, extend any other arrows with your felt tip marker, hehe).

In fact, they try to get as much votin' in on the presidential ballot as possible, because that's the highest voter turnout election, even here in Oklahoma and Tulsa :D

okie52
1/12/2012, 05:18 PM
Nobody votes in Tulsa or Oklahoma.

Why would anyone come here except that some blind Corporation had given a ****load of money to one of their Campaigns or PACs?

Seems like Tulsan George Kaiser has given more than a few bucks to Obama...and Barack liked to reciprocate.

KantoSooner
1/12/2012, 05:56 PM
Oh, I vote. I just don't fault the candidates for not coming here.

Sooner5030
1/12/2012, 09:40 PM
meh....I'm fine with Mitt....but he will not be much different than Obama/Bush/Clinton. The Executive is held in check by both houses and the mob. The only "change" candidates in the last 20 years have been Perot, Dean & Paul. We should be careful to accept change as something good. Just because now sucks doesn't mean change will be any better.

/and this comes from a libertarian type pub

Ike
1/13/2012, 08:57 AM
In fact, they try to get as much votin' in on the presidential ballot as possible, because that's the highest voter turnout election, even here in Oklahoma and Tulsa :D

These days, it seems that they try to get as much voting in on the midterm ballot as possible...because then only the people that really care will show up.

Ike
1/13/2012, 09:03 AM
The problem with Not-Romney is that I don't think any of the Not-Romneys are good enough to bring in votes from people that don't already hold a strong negative view of the President (except Huntsman, but he's got a snowballs chance in hell of being the nominee). Every single one of them (except maybe Huntsman) has some quality about them that if you are "meh" on this President kinda makes you want to gag. Romney is the bland choice, but also the one that won't make everyone else in the room throw up a lot. He's a political wind-checker, and in my opinion, people really like that more than they tell you they do.

Ton Loc
1/13/2012, 09:48 AM
Romney is the bland choice, but also the one that won't make everyone else in the room throw up a lot. He's a political wind-checker, and in my opinion, people really like that more than they tell you they do.

I think people want a President that runs the country like the captain of a four year Carnival Cruise. A little more than you wanted to spend for bland food, watered down drinks, crappy entertainment, and half assed island destinations, but you're still fat, drunk, and a little more tan after the fact.

Romney could pull that off.

soonercoop1
1/13/2012, 06:05 PM
Yes because he will have problems at the convention...

LiveLaughLove
1/14/2012, 06:24 PM
He probably has it in the bag, barring some unforeseen calamity.

So another election between a limousine liberal Republican, and a limousine liberal Democrat.

Oh joy.

bigfatjerk
1/14/2012, 09:00 PM
There are thousands of votes up for grabs and despite winning the first 2 states Romney only leads 12-10 in points over Ron Paul right now. There's still a long ways to go.

Turd_Ferguson
1/14/2012, 09:08 PM
Paul is unelectable...

bigfatjerk
1/14/2012, 09:10 PM
Romney and Paul are the only ones that are polling right with Obama right now. If Paul is unelectable so is Romney and Obama.

hawaii 5-0
1/14/2012, 10:13 PM
All all the Independents gonna go with the 'New" Hope and Change of Romney?

As usual they'll be the ones to decide who wins next Nov.

5-0

bigfatjerk
1/15/2012, 09:39 AM
It's not about percentage or popular vote. It's about winning Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If the republicans win 3 out of 4 they are good. 2 out of 4 it'll be close depending on which two. Obama basically has no shot at winning any states in the south other than Florida. Romney might also put Massachusetts, New Hampshire or Michigan into play because he has ties to those states. Ron Paul was born and raised in Pennsylvania but I doubt that really matters in the election. He would still win most of the south and then have a shot at winning Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida just like any other republican.

Another state I would say is in play is Virginia but that really looks like it'll go republican no matter what.

AlboSooner
1/15/2012, 09:55 AM
The republicans running against Romney are painting him as a predatory capitalist, whose only motive to run for president is his own personal pride. They're making Obama's job easier.

I wish the system was built in a way that a candidate like Huntsman had more of a chance to be elected than he actually has.

bigfatjerk
1/15/2012, 09:59 AM
Huntsman probably woulda had a shot if he ran as a democrat. But he is the other other candidate outside of Paul that is talking about cutting government spending.

AlboSooner
1/15/2012, 10:03 AM
I don't think many Democrats would side with him on the issues.
http://jon2012.com/issues

Especially this part:

(1) rolling back President Obama’s health care overhaul and financial regulation reform, (2) reining in the Environmental Protection Agency’s job-killing regulations, and (3) dramatically improving the cost-benefit analysis of future regulations and the discipline of federal regulatory agencies – particularly independent agencies like the National Labor Relations Board – which have avoided White House oversight for political reasons, not legal ones

badger
1/16/2012, 11:03 AM
Huntsman's out... reportedly.

Will endorse Mitt later this morning... reportedly.

Linkedly (http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=335&articleid=20120116_335_0_CHARLE684175)