So STEP, NFL Draft

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Seriously curious about Blackmon here.

Over the last 10 years, the big 12 has had 6 1st round picks taken at WR. From 2000-2005, they were pretty meh in the pros (Woods, Williams, Clayton) with the best WR clearing being an UDFA who has a chance to end up in the HoF. However, over the last 5 years the 3 picks have been pretty stout (Maclin, Crabtree, Bryant) all being in the top 50 in receiving yards this year.

I guess my question is would you take him in the top 10 picks like pretty much every fan site has him going right now? I just can't help but look at the top 10 in receiving yardage and notice that only 2 of them was taken in the first 25 picks.

Wes Welker UDFA
Calvin Johnson 1/2
Victor Cruz UDFA
Steve Smith 2/19
Larry Fitzgerald 1/3
Mike Wallace 3/20
Brandon Marshall 4/22
Hakeem Nicks 1/29
Roddy White 1/27
Vincent Jackson 2/29

I do know that I probably would pass on a Big 12 WR after the 1st round as it has been a series of flameouts over the last decade.

[NormanPride]

IMO, the ones in the pros from the Big 12 need to be of a certain type because of the defenses we run. Since we're smaller and more spread out (and have less talented corners on average) the speedy, great route running type is better. Maclin and Crabby really are like that, with Crabby having size as well. Bryant is the outlier here, but he's also a guy that was used around the middle as much as he was on the edges. This is why I am not certain of Blackmon being great. He's relied more on his size than his incredible ability to run routes and create separation with speed and his knowledge of the defense. He looks like Roy Williams to me.

[toast]

Not STEP, so I hope it's ok to respond...jmo but if I'm a gm there's no way I'm spending top 10 pick on a wr unless the guy's an absolute freak of nature. I'm looking for a shutdown corner, a DL, a left tackle for the next several years, or a franchise qb. If that's not there I'm trading down and stockpiling picks.

[badger]

While I hope STEP arrives to give the official scouting answer soon, IMHO, I think the receiver's success in the Neffel greatly depends on the quarterback.

Sure, you will occasionally get a quarterback who sucks badly but is lucky enough to end up on a team with Randy Moss and Cris Carter (yes, I am referring to Culpepper, hehe), but in general, when you see a good receiver, you usually see that he's teamed with a good quarterback.

Would Wes Welker be an undrafted free agent possibly headed for the hall of fame if he didn't have Tom Brady throwing to him? One thing's for sure --- he wouldn't be if Tim Tebow were under center. If I were a receiver in Denver, I'd be begging to get traded out at this point. ugggggggh

[stoops the eternal pimp]

Let's look at the teams picking in the top 10
Indianapolis
Minnesota
St. Louis
Jacksonville
Cleveland
Tampa Bay
Washington
Carolina
Miami
Buffalo

No brainer on the first pick...It's going to be Andrew Luck
2nd pick...Whoever picks second will most likely go with Kalil..likely Minnesota

Now St Louis..Even though there are a couple of other players to be considered here, I don't think they pass up on Blackmon. I think if they do pass on him, Jacksonville likely picks him up..But if Jacksonville doesn't take him, he falls down to Buffalo...

Anyway, I have no idea what kind of 40 time blackmon has...His route running has improved but he still rounds them off a little much and is a little lazy at times.

Back to the question, would I take him top 10? Right now, I say no until the workouts...His height measurement may is the most important one for him at the combine. Here is the list of 6'1 or under receivers taken in the last 10 years in the top 10 picks

Michael Crabtree
Ted Ginn jr
Troy Williamson

Now he is a different style of player than any of those guys, but it shows you how teams don't often pull the trigger on a pick like that early.

[badger]

[hairGel] and :mack:

Do they both lie about player heights? Are there any programs that are kind of known for doing this to the point that scouts will hold out till their official measurements at the Combine?

In case you're wondering why I would accuse :mack: of such a awful thing as inflating his players' (egos!) height stats, look at this photo of the Heisman finalists the year Sammie won it:

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0811/ncf_g_tebow_mccoy_bradford_300.jpg

I seem to recall Texas listing Colt as the same height as OU listed Sammie, but by the time Colt made it to the combine, he was found to just be a hair above 6'1. Sam was 6'4" at OU and the Combine.

[CowboyMRW]

Don't you think the rookie salary cap will play a role in picking now. I think teams won't be afraid to go after a WR who has a chance to be great or bust, because they won't have to pay what they used to. Teams can afford to go that route now.

[Peach Fuzz]

Don't you think the rookie salary cap will play a role in picking now. I think teams won't be afraid to go after a WR who has a chance to be great or bust, because they won't have to pay what they used to. Teams can afford to go that route now. So you're saying #1 overall

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Don't you think the rookie salary cap will play a role in picking now. I think teams won't be afraid to go after a WR who has a chance to be great or bust, because they won't have to pay what they used to. Teams can afford to go that route now.

Heh, you'd take a flier on a guy in the 1st 10 picks?

The problem is that I would be leary of taking any Big 12 WRs in the 1st round. Let's see:

Rashaun Woods - spazzed out and never saw the field
Roy Williams - uber talented but gives about 1/4 effort on the field.
Mark Clayton - Injured every year in the league
Dez Bryant - see roy williams
Crabtree and Maclin - average stats for both at about 1/2 the league leader

I'm not even going to get into all the 2nd/3rd round flameouts like Kelly, Bradley, and Iglesias (and those are just from OU).

[badger]

Don't you think the rookie salary cap will play a role in picking now. I think teams won't be afraid to go after a WR who has a chance to be great or bust, because they won't have to pay what they used to. Teams can afford to go that route now.

Poke man, if Dez Bryant couldn't go any higher than 24th, whom I think most of you orange types would agree was the superior receiver in college, what chance do you think Blackmon has, even in this new era on slotted scale rookie salaries?

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Poke man, if Dez Bryant couldn't go any higher than 24th, whom I think most of you orange types would agree was the superior receiver in college, what chance do you think Blackmon has, even in this new era on slotted scale rookie salaries?

I think someone will take him. I just don't think it would be a wise pick.

[badger]

I think someone will take him. I just don't think it would be a wise pick.

Oh yeah, agree. Someone will be this era's Detroit Lions and draft an overrated receiver too high, only to cut or trade him in a season or two.

EDIT: And before a Poke can retort that Dez had NCAA issues and that hurt his draft stock, he answered tons of questions on everything from momma being a prostitute or not to lying to the NCAA and Blackmon will have to do some answering on his own for his own issues... you know, like that DUI. And don't try to undermine it, because we already know that underage blah blah equals DUI in Texas blah blah. If it wasn't serious, he wouldn't have been suspended for a game.

[stoops the eternal pimp]

Don't you think the rookie salary cap will play a role in picking now. I think teams won't be afraid to go after a WR who has a chance to be great or bust, because they won't have to pay what they used to. Teams can afford to go that route now.

I think you will see teams take more chances at quarterback....And I think he goes high, maybe top 10...but I don't know that I would do that.

[badger]

As long as you're here STEP, any predictions on where some Sooners get drafted, or any underclassmen declaring at this point?

Also, any word on any Sooners making rosters this late in the season a la Madu?

[stoops the eternal pimp]

For whatever reason, Ronnell is slipping at this point and down towards middle late 2nd and travis lewis is around the 3rd round now...Broyles is 3rd round/4th round talk now...

Going to the movies, but I'll give a more detailed post later..

[badger]

Here's another big huge question for when you return from Muppets. ;)

Last offseason, we saw a lot of late round picks and undrafted players get cut because they didn't get very much of a chance to learn the playbook or show what they can do, compared to other seasons (or at least I assume that was the reason). Will we see a lot of these guys try again this coming season, thus making it a more competitive camp than ever for teams?

A few other questions in general:

1- What are the best teams to be drafted by in a later round, or picked up as a undrafted free agent (i.e. the teams that invest the most time and resources in these somewhat marginal players that are fight for the final roster spots)?

2- What are the worst franchises to be drafted by, and for what reasons?

3- A real crazy question for you: The top picks are making less money than Sammie's draft year, but are getting 100 percent guaranteed contracts as a result. Is this actually bad longterm for NFL owners, as younger players will now become accustomed to expecting their entire money to be paid on their contract in the future?

[TXBOOMER]

I would not take him in the first round. Gotta take big time game changers in the first round. QB, OT, DLine, CB, STud RB etc.

[Salt City Sooner]

I wouldn't even take a stud RB in the first anymore unless I'm a team with a significant hole at that position & there happens to be a once in a generation talent that falls into my pick. There's way too many examples of excellent RB's who go after the first.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

I would not take him in the first round. Gotta take big time game changers in the first round. QB, OT, DLine, CB, STud RB etc.

I wouldn't go with running back in that list. If I were an NFL GM, the first round would always be about the lines and the secondary (with exceptions made for high value picks at other positions).

[badger]

I wouldn't go with running back in that list. If I were an NFL GM, the first round would always be about the lines and the secondary (with exceptions made for high value picks at other positions).

Every so often, a running back as awesome as Adrian Peterson comes along that you have to draft if given the opportunity.

This year, I don't see any Adrian Petersons.

[Scott D]

1- What are the best teams to be drafted by in a later round, or picked up as a undrafted free agent (i.e. the teams that invest the most time and resources in these somewhat marginal players that are fight for the final roster spots)?

Teams that know what their system is and look for players that fit that system. Generally the Patriots, Packers, and Steelers fit this mold.


2- What are the worst franchises to be drafted by, and for what reasons?

Bears (see Forte, Matt...annual Lance Briggs issue, etc..), Bengals (see Brown, Paul), Eagles/Jets/Giants (see Fans).


3- A real crazy question for you: The top picks are making less money than Sammie's draft year, but are getting 100 percent guaranteed contracts as a result. Is this actually bad longterm for NFL owners, as younger players will now become accustomed to expecting their entire money to be paid on their contract in the future?

You're likely to see shorter term contracts, or owners finding a way to make a fair share of those contracts incentive laden. If I remember correctly, in order for the money to be guaranteed, the rookie contracts and subsequent UFA status now comes a year earlier than it did prior to this season.

[Scott D]

I would not take him in the first round. Gotta take big time game changers in the first round. QB, OT, DLine, CB, STud RB etc.

A team may take a RB in the top 10, but with today's NFL, that back will be platooned unless there are serious injury issues at the position that year.

[BoulderSooner79]

I'd sure take Blackmon in the 1st round with the caveat that nothing comes up in the combine/pro day. The guy is a physical freak with arms long enough to give him the reach of a 6'5" guy and a big body to box out like an H-back. But he will be raw and he didn't have to refine his technique against big12 defenses. My biggest worry would be his new tendency to pout when the ball wasn't coming his way this year. I'd really concentrate on the personal interview stuff and whether I thought he was coachable.

[Salt City Sooner]

Teams that know what their system is and look for players that fit that system. Generally the Patriots, Packers, and Steelers fit this mold.



Bears (see Forte, Matt...annual Lance Briggs issue, etc..), Bengals (see Brown, Paul), Eagles/Jets/Giants (see Fans).



You're likely to see shorter term contracts, or owners finding a way to make a fair share of those contracts incentive laden. If I remember correctly, in order for the money to be guaranteed, the rookie contracts and subsequent UFA status now comes a year earlier than it did prior to this season.
That'd be Brown, Mike. Unfortunately, he thinks he's dad. I do have to begrudgingly give him a little credit in that he's been actually deferring to his staff in a good chunk of the draft/personnel decisions the past couple of years (esp. the draft, where they've done very well lately), & I have to say that the future's as bright as it's been since Paul passed on 20 years ago. Sans Pittsburgh kicking their butts a couple of weeks ago they've been within 1 possession of the lead in the 4th quarter of every loss this year. If they can get past the brain farts (i.e. Houston; Cincy flat gave that game away) & mature into a team that expects to win, I like their future.

[Scott D]

You're right, I did mean Mike, thank you for the correction.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Every so often, a running back as awesome as Adrian Peterson comes along that you have to draft if given the opportunity.

This year, I don't see any Adrian Petersons.

I wouldn't take him even if he was available. You have to draft positions that are expensive to fill in free agency. Running back is fairly cheap to get a decent back.

[StoopTroup]

For whatever reason, Ronnell is slipping at this point and down towards middle late 2nd and travis lewis is around the 3rd round now...Broyles is 3rd round/4th round talk now...

Going to the movies, but I'll give a more detailed post later..

Mission Impossible?

Was Tom Dreamy as usual? :D

[stoops the eternal pimp]

Here's another big huge question for when you return from Muppets. ;)

Last offseason, we saw a lot of late round picks and undrafted players get cut because they didn't get very much of a chance to learn the playbook or show what they can do, compared to other seasons (or at least I assume that was the reason). Will we see a lot of these guys try again this coming season, thus making it a more competitive camp than ever for teams?

A few other questions in general:

1- What are the best teams to be drafted by in a later round, or picked up as a undrafted free agent (i.e. the teams that invest the most time and resources in these somewhat marginal players that are fight for the final roster spots)?

2- What are the worst franchises to be drafted by, and for what reasons?

3- A real crazy question for you: The top picks are making less money than Sammie's draft year, but are getting 100 percent guaranteed contracts as a result. Is this actually bad longterm for NFL owners, as younger players will now become accustomed to expecting their entire money to be paid on their contract in the future?

This offseason is going to be filled with UDFA trying to make teams..Most of them to fill ST rolls..

1. What Scott D said...When you are drafted, you want to be drafted by teams with stability from the coaches and excellent players on the side of the ball you are on...For example, Pittsburg is a great franchise to go into...New England...Indianapolis..I think the Texans are a good franchise...I think Dallas is a place to go..

2. Miami Dolphins...Jacksonville...St Louis..I wouldn't want any part of these franchises right now

3.Not really..I think it's a positive for the whole league and about time the NFL contract actually be a contract..

[WA. Sooner]

Will the lack of practice time at OSU hurt any of their players draft stock?

[Collier11]

If Blackmon falls to the Rams they should take him over any other position

[badger]

If Blackmon falls to the Rams they should take him over any other position

Offensive line is the Rams biggest need now methinks, but I'll defer to STEP.

I think the Rams' final opponent really needs the win, so they will have a very good shot at the "Suck for Luck" spot. They could probably get some good picks or players outta that.

[Scott D]

It's less that SF needs the win as it is that NO needs StL to beat SF.

[Augusta_Sooner]

If Cleveland can't draft a stud RB like Trent Richardson, then I think they'll take Blackmon. They drafted Greg Little last year and he's put up nice numbers this year. Cribbs is good too but adding Blackmon and then drafting a RB or OL in the 2nd rd might be another option.

[badger]

If Cleveland can't draft a stud RB like Trent Richardson, then I think they'll take Blackmon. They drafted Greg Little last year and he's put up nice numbers this year. Cribbs is good too but adding Blackmon and then drafting a RB or OL in the 2nd rd might be another option.

Doesn't Cleveland already have a serviceable back that just had an injury and sickness riddled season? They might be able to re-sign him on the cheap after such a crappy year!

[ouleaf]

That'd be Brown, Mike. Unfortunately, he thinks he's dad. I do have to begrudgingly give him a little credit in that he's been actually deferring to his staff in a good chunk of the draft/personnel decisions the past couple of years (esp. the draft, where they've done very well lately), & I have to say that the future's as bright as it's been since Paul passed on 20 years ago. Sans Pittsburgh kicking their butts a couple of weeks ago they've been within 1 possession of the lead in the 4th quarter of every loss this year. If they can get past the brain farts (i.e. Houston; Cincy flat gave that game away) & mature into a team that expects to win, I like their future.

Agreed...They did a good job of clearing themselves of the Ochocinco/TO/Palmer mess and have quietly had a nice season with a chance to make the playoffs. Dalton looks like he'll only get better and he has young receiving talent all over the field now. Benson has revitalized his career in Cincy after disappointing in Chicago. Mike Zimmer is a great D coordinator too. Needs a shot at the HC job.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

If Blackmon falls to the Rams they should take him over any other position

The Rams need help all over the place. I think they'd be better served trading back and grabbing 3-4 extra picks + some next year ESPECIALLY if they get the #1 pick.

WR is funny. You need a #1 which they have in Lloyd, but after that you need receivers that mesh with a QB. Look at Laurent Robinson at Dallas, dude was cut from like 6 teams before ending up there as a dominant guy.

[Scott D]

Doesn't Cleveland already have a serviceable back that just had an injury and sickness riddled season? They might be able to re-sign him on the cheap after such a crappy year!

You must mean Montero Hardesty. The only reason they'll keep Peyton Hillis around is because the guy pretty much killed most of the interest in him as a free agent to get a big money contract this year.

[Collier11]

The Rams need help all over the place. I think they'd be better served trading back and grabbing 3-4 extra picks + some next year ESPECIALLY if they get the #1 pick.

WR is funny. You need a #1 which they have in Lloyd, but after that you need receivers that mesh with a QB. Look at Laurent Robinson at Dallas, dude was cut from like 6 teams before ending up there as a dominant guy.

I do agree, if they can get multiple picks out of their slot, that would probably benefit them the most

[Scott D]

Look for Denver to exclusively recruit Georgia Tech, and the Academies ;)

[Salt City Sooner]

Agreed...They did a good job of clearing themselves of the Ochocinco/TO/Palmer mess and have quietly had a nice season with a chance to make the playoffs. Dalton looks like he'll only get better and he has young receiving talent all over the field now. Benson has revitalized his career in Cincy after disappointing in Chicago. Mike Zimmer is a great D coordinator too. Needs a shot at the HC job.
Benson has been decent (1 season out of 4 in which he's averaged over 4 YPC), IMO, but nothing to write home about. He's been better in Cincy than w/ the bears, no doubt. He's spent the last 2 weeks slitting his throat w/ a machete though, fumbling 5 times in those 2 games. Cincy got all 3 back in the first game, but they lost both last week against the Cards & it almost cost them (very, VERY lucky as Doucet tripped over his own feet in the end zone when he was wide open) after having a 23-0 4th quarter lead. Most that I've heard talk about their draft feel that if Richardson gets by Cleveland (right now they're currently in the 4th slot, awfully high for a RB) that the Bengals would take him in a heartbeat if he can get to either of their picks (OL, CB, & upgrades at RB & 1 safety are the 4 consensus needs for them).

As for Zim, I couldn't agree more that he deserves a shot at a HC job, but I'll cry when he gets it (unless it's taking over for a retiring Lewis). He's been a godsend.

[cccasooner2]

Teams that know what their system is and look for players that fit that system. Generally the Patriots, Packers, and Steelers fit this mold.


Did the Packers finally get that punter they needed (too many to list)?

[TXBOOMER]

I wouldn't go with running back in that list. If I were an NFL GM, the first round would always be about the lines and the secondary (with exceptions made for high value picks at other positions).

By Stud RB I meant like the rare AD type guy. I agree it is all about the lines and the seconday and a great QB in the NFL.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

By Stud RB I meant like the rare AD type guy. I agree it is all about the lines and the seconday and a great QB in the NFL.

You can generally pull a 3.9 - 4.2 ypc guy off the street. You would pay that kind of money for 4.8 ypc?

[NormanPride]

You can generally pull a 3.9 - 4.2 ypc guy off the street. You would pay that kind of money for 4.8 ypc?

Depends on the offense. For the Packers? No. For the Tebows? Yes.

[Augusta_Sooner]

You can generally pull a 3.9 - 4.2 ypc guy off the street. You would pay that kind of money for 4.8 ypc?

Yeah, guys who average 4 yds per carry against NFL defenses are a dime a dozen....keep telling yourself that, maybe it will come true

[Scott D]

Did the Packers finally get that punter they needed (too many to list)?

It's a rare punter that gets drafted, even more rare they get drafted high. Them you get off the street, like cheating ex-boyfriends watching games on the couch while their ex-girlfriend has good seats at a Packer game.

I bet this means NP never cheats now that he has seen what could be at stake :D

[badger]

It's a rare punter that gets drafted, even more rare they get drafted high. Them you get off the street, like cheating ex-boyfriends watching games on the couch while their ex-girlfriend has good seats at a Packer game.

I bet this means NP never cheats now that he has seen what could be at stake :D

Oh yeah... if he ever cheats, I'm totally pulling skybox seats outta thin air to waive in his face. ;)

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Yeah, guys who average 4 yds per carry against NFL defenses are a dime a dozen....keep telling yourself that, maybe it will come true

As usual you didn't even bother to go look up the stats. Right now 72 running back average more than 3.9 yards per carry. You are the worst fail troll eva.

[Salt City Sooner]

Found this interesting; of the 6 RB's named to the Pro Bowl, not one was a first round pick.

AFC
Ray Rice- 2nd rd
MJD- Ditto
Arian Foster- UDFA

NFC
Shady McCoy- 2nd rd
Matt Forte- same
Frank Gore- 3rd rd

[badger]

Found this interesting; of the 6 RB's named to the Pro Bowl, not one was a first round pick.

AFC
Ray Rice- 2nd rd
MJD- Ditto
Arian Foster- UDFA

NFC
Shady McCoy- 2nd rd
Matt Forte- same
Frank Gore- 3rd rd

I bet at least one will be an alternate/backup/whatever they call the rest of them. And AD would probably be on the list if not for his injury... or being on a team that uses him as the HOF back that he will be.

[Eielson]

Right or wrong, I think the Rams fanbase is starting to pull for Blackmon. I haven't watched much this year, but at least some of the fans believe that part of the O-line's lack of success has been due to the fact that opposing defenses have absolutely no fear of the Rams' WR's. Even if Sam did have more time, I'm not sure that it would matter that much. I think a guy like Blackmon could change that immediately. Blackmon and Lloyd along with Jackson out of the backfield and potentially a good receiving tight end in Kendricks could do some damage. We've spent so many 3rd/4th rounders on WR's, and it's absolutely not working. I'm really hoping we can trade down and still get Blackmon.

[Collier11]

I bet the Rams WRs have literally dropped 50 passes this year, they are bad bad bad outside of Lloyd