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View Full Version : Is it too early to start thinking about the Iowa Caucus?



badger
11/29/2011, 01:32 PM
It's about a month away now, so I'll say "no"

Link (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-macaray/its-time-we-got-rid-of-th_b_1110472.html)

The current betting odds look to be:

Newt: 5/4
Mitt: 7/4
Ron Paul: 9/2
Cain: 9 to 1
Perry: 12 to 1
Bachmann: 18 to 1
Santorum: 25 to 1
Huntsman: 50 to 1
Gary Johnson: 80 to 1
Buddy Roemer: 200 to 1

I'll pretend that "someone else" (republican only, no fair saying "Obama") is 250 to 1 currently.

And thus, vBookie will now have a longterm political event for our first 2012 presidential "primary" (CAUCUS!!!!) of the election year. I will alter odds as candidates slip up, gain, or do weird things, so if you like any of these odds, take em now!

Also, please don't discuss politics in the Sports Book forum. Keep the jovial discourse here in Obamafest. :)

SanJoaquinSooner
11/29/2011, 01:49 PM
Those odds are for coming in 1st place, I assume.

However, anyone not named Mitt who comes in a strong second place is probably considered a winner.

badger
11/29/2011, 02:00 PM
Yes, the odds are for the "winner" :)

It is sounding more and more like Hermann Cain is looking to drop his campaign, so he might get even steeper odds shortly.

While Iowa has sank a few strong campaigns in recent history (Howard Dean's scream comes to mind) and propelled others (John Kerry was given a second thought till he won Iowa), I also can't forget that Bill Clinton took fourth there. I don't think Bob Dole won there, I think it was Steve Forbes but not sure.

As much as Iowa fights to be significant, they really aren't :)

(but thanks for beating the Pokes! We'll try to do the same this weekend!)

diverdog
11/29/2011, 02:06 PM
It's about a month away now, so I'll say "no"

Link (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-macaray/its-time-we-got-rid-of-th_b_1110472.html)

The current betting odds look to be:

Newt: 5/4
Mitt: 7/4
Ron Paul: 9/2
Cain: 9 to 1
Perry: 12 to 1
Bachmann: 18 to 1
Santorum: 25 to 1
Huntsman: 50 to 1
Gary Johnson: 80 to 1
Buddy Roemer: 200 to 1

I'll pretend that "someone else" (republican only, no fair saying "Obama") is 250 to 1 currently.

And thus, vBookie will now have a longterm political event for our first 2012 presidential "primary" (CAUCUS!!!!) of the election year. I will alter odds as candidates slip up, gain, or do weird things, so if you like any of these odds, take em now!

Also, please don't discuss politics in the Sports Book forum. Keep the jovial discourse here in Obamafest. :)

Cain is toast. I bet a does not survive two more weeks. A woman came out and said she had a 13 year affair with Cain. I bet divorce papers are coming soon.

badger
1/2/2012, 11:09 AM
Your final betting odds courtesy of the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/iowa-caucus-setting-the-odds/2012/01/02/gIQA9xCAWP_blog.html) has Mitt has the clear frontrunner (my how time changes stuff) but Rick Santorum is now surging ahead to second, with Ron Paul close behind. Slick Rich, Newt and Michelle are long forgotten and I have set the odds on the others so high that you would basically be throwing vCash away if you went with any of them.

Sooo... who wins and why? Leave a prediction (or make a vBet) before 7 a.m. tomorrow!

yermom
1/2/2012, 12:06 PM
there were Ron Paul peeps all over the place trying to influence the Iowa fans at the Insight Bowl :D

okie52
1/2/2012, 12:15 PM
Newt, Cain, and Perry's drops have been astonishing.

badger
1/2/2012, 01:33 PM
Newt, Cain, and Perry's drops have been astonishing.

Not just those three, but also Michelle Bachmann's drop, going from August straw poll winner to potentially dead last. Here's a few outsider observations, while realizing that Iowa (and New Hampshire) are uppity about their "first" status and will do whatever they feel like, damn the polls:

Newt: He pulled the crying card out of thin air a few days ago when mentioning his mother. I think that might resonate with some voters the same way Hillary's own sobbing moment caused her to win New Hampshire. Voters like to see moments of human emotion. Alas, everyone will give a big WTF if this causes Newt to win, because if that were the case, you'd see a lot of hysterical crying in the future.

Perry: Once people got to know Rick Perry, they knew he was not president material. He cannot publicly speak and his demeanor is somewhat arrogant (at least W. was likable, even if he also fumbled on a few words here and there). If we've learned anything from Gov. Christie of New Jersey, Republicans and voters in general love self-depreciating humor, so Perry could have ran with it that way, but seems to be trying to go the opposite direction --- prove that moments like that were flukes. So, Texans perhaps can get a bit of hope out of this: That when Texas voters finally see how bad Perry is, they will not vote him in for another term.

Cain: He's already dropped out, so there's not much to that. It was a longshot anyway.

Santorum: Is he paying people to vote for him, or is he bribing the pollsters to jack up his numbers?! I have no other explanation for his sudden jump. Hope you got those 25 to 1 odds in before I switched them this morning!

Bachmann: She is apparently REALLY playing up the "I'm a chick" card, which I think is causing a majority of Iowa voters to be a bit put off (rural voters = traditional values, like women not being president, but instead being homemaking housewives on family farms raising big farm families). She is reportedly trying to get voters to connect with the idea that she could be America's version of Margaret Thatcher... but again, it's Iowa, not a national vote here.

okie52
1/2/2012, 01:42 PM
Newt, Cain and Perry all had brief times atop of the polls. Now even Newt is looking insignificant.

badger
1/3/2012, 09:50 AM
It is waaay too early in the year to be having a presidential election/primary/caucus/whatever.

Screw you Iowa!