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Fraggle145
11/16/2011, 06:36 PM
...you can't ignore the weak offenses.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7241966/the-sec-loaded-great-defenses-ignore-weak-offenses-cfb


The SEC's offense problem

The league's defenses are the nation's best. But on the other side of the ball ...

By Brock Huard
ESPN Insider

Last week, many of you took exception to my argument that an undefeated Boise State Broncos team was deserving of a shot at the BCS title game and capable of beating the SEC's elite teams on a neutral field. The Broncos then went out and lost to the TCU Horned Frogs, done in by TCU's pass offense and yet another critical missed field goal, ending the debate over whether Boise should get a national championship opportunity this season.

But one aspect of my argument that remains unchanged even after the Broncos' loss is that the extent of the SEC's dominance this season has been inflated. At the center of this issue is the fact that even though there's no questioning the quality of the conference's defenses, the SEC is a league full of very weak offenses.

Before I discuss the offenses, though, let's give credit where credit is due. Objectively speaking, the SEC is without question the best defensive conference in college football and has been for many years. The players, especially those on the defensive front, are collectively head and shoulders above those of any other conference in America. More defenders from the SEC play on Sundays than from any other conference, and the adage "offenses win games, defenses win championships" has certainly held true down South, with the conference boasting the last five national champions.

But especially when looking at the quality of SEC teams this season, it seems only fair to apply the one factor that comes up in nearly every college football debate this time of year: strength of competition.


Part of this has the feel of a "chicken and the egg" debate, as great defenses can make offenses look bad just as easily as bad offenses can make defenses look great. But consider the numbers: The SEC has six of its 12 members ranked in the top 22 in total defense this season, with the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers ranking No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

At the same time, the league has six teams ranked in the bottom 25 in total offense, with the Tennessee Volunteers (96th), Auburn Tigers (97th), Florida Gators (98th), Vanderbilt Commodores (99th), Ole Miss Rebels (113th) and Kentucky Wildcats (118th) sharing offensive resumes with the likes of Tulane, UAB and Buffalo.

To give you a better idea of just how bad the offensive competition is for some of the SEC's heavyweights, here's one stat of note: Of the teams on Alabama's schedule this season, only one (Arkansas) ranks in the top 75 in total offense.

The point is, Alabama is phenomenal on defense and LSU is really good, but when the Crimson Tide play Kent State, North Texas, Georgia Southern and the 88th-ranked offense in Penn State out of conference, their defensive numbers get further bloated. All the while you still have six SEC teams ranking among the 25 worst offenses in the FBS, even though UAB, CMU, FAU, MTSU and the rest of the alphabet universities fill up a third of many SEC teams' schedules.

I can continue to throw out statistics that point to the lack of offensive playmakers in the conference, like the fact that only two running backs rank in the top 30 nationally or just two wide receivers rank in the top 50. But the real issue is this: Good offensive teams have a very clear identity of who they are and what they want to do. Take a look at the Oregon Ducks, Houston Cougars, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Stanford Cardinal, Baylor Bears, Clemson Tigers, Wisconsin Badgers, et al. These teams simply don't deviate from their plans of attack.

In the SEC in 2011, who can make that case offensively? Arkansas with Bobby Petrino, Georgia with Aaron Murray and maybe Alabama with Trent Richardson, but outside of those three, none can answer the question, "What's your offensive identity?"

Consider this: All nine of those remaining teams have played multiple quarterbacks. Yes, nine of the 12 teams in the conference have used multiple players at the most critical position in sports, leading in large part to a lack of continuity, rhythm and development of offensive systems. It's no surprise that outside of Murray (one of my five young QBs on the rise), there are no SEC quarterbacks rated in the top 20 in passing efficiency. In fact, only Jarrett Lee (22), AJ McCarron (34) and Tyler Wilson (29) join Murray (12) in the top 50 in passing efficiency.

Support for my theory can be found in the few cases where SEC teams have played challenging out-of-conference opponents this season. LSU finished plus-7 in the turnover column against Oregon and West Virginia, which is a good thing because the Tigers allowed 335 and 533 yards to those teams, respectively (LSU allows only 219 per game against SEC opponents). We all know how Boise State's game with Georgia turned out, as the Broncos put up 35 points and 390 yards against a Georgia defense that is now fourth-best in the nation and allowing an average of 18 points and 273 yards per game. And not that Arkansas is considered to be among the SEC's best defenses, but the Razorbacks allowed 633 yards in their win against the Texas A&M Aggies.

Remember, it's not as though the SEC has historically lacked elite offenses. Just look at some of the QBs the league has produced over the past several years: Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning. All those quarterbacks faced dominant and talented SEC defenses but ultimately achieved personal and team success because the perfect pass beats perfect coverage time and again.

That's why I have little doubt that if Matt Barkley were a Gamecock, Andrew Luck an LSU Tiger, Brandon Weeden a Razorback and Robert Griffin III an Auburn Tiger, you would be seeing very different defensive metrics in the SEC. For that matter, you would also see very different offensive production, too.

Over the next two weeks this theory will likely be put to the test. Georgia will take on a top-20 offense in Georgia Tech. The seventh-ranked South Carolina defense will tussle with a Clemson team that is putting up over 478 yards a game, and LSU will have one final test against the highest-ranked offense in the SEC, Arkansas and its 455 yards per game (you might be able to add an SEC title matchup against Georgia to LSU's list, as well). My hunch is that those offenses will pile on substantially more production than so many of the struggling offensive units in the SEC have all season long.

Not that it will be easy. This is a league full of great defenses, after all. But it's important to remember that as the BCS title debate unfolds over the one-loss teams these next few weeks, there's another side of the "strength of competition" issue to consider.

Brock Huard is a college football analyst for ESPN and ABC's Saturday games on the West Coast and works as a studio analyst for the networks. He played quarterback for six seasons in the NFL and was a three-year starter for the Washington Huskies. Huard is the co-host of the "Brock and Salk Show" on 710 ESPN Seattle (follow the show on Twitter here), and he will be writing a weekly column for ESPN Insider during the college football season.



Hmmm... I think some people here understand this.

Frozen Sooner
11/16/2011, 06:41 PM
...you can't ignore the weak offenses.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7241966/the-sec-loaded-great-defenses-ignore-weak-offenses-cfb



Hmmm... I think some people here understand this.

(ahem)

Yeah, I remember posting some numbers to this effect...

SoonerPride93
11/16/2011, 07:03 PM
Defense wins championships...

PLaw
11/17/2011, 02:51 PM
maybe the weak offenses are why their defenses are perceived as great. Remember, perception is stronger than fact.

BOOMER

NYC Poke
11/17/2011, 03:21 PM
Defense wins championships...

And poor QB play loses them.

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 03:24 PM
This is why I am really hoping for a Big XII -vs- SEC title game match up. Either the SEC's defenses are really great, or they are fluffed up because of mediocre offenses. Same can be said for the Big XII defenses/offenses. I tend to think that the Big XII defensive numbers are mediocre because of great offenses.

sooneredaco
11/17/2011, 04:19 PM
But the SEC is so fast! And they lift weights!

rainiersooner
11/17/2011, 04:58 PM
This is why I am really hoping for a Big XII -vs- SEC title game match up. Either the SEC's defenses are really great, or they are fluffed up because of mediocre offenses. Same can be said for the Big XII defenses/offenses. I tend to think that the Big XII defensive numbers are mediocre because of great offenses.

I'd rather continue to wonder "what if" than actually have to watch it put to the test in real life...but if we can't beat the Pokes, I do wonder how they would do against LSU or Alabama.

Oh right...that's what play station is for!

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 05:01 PM
I'd rather continue to wonder "what if" than actually have to watch it put to the test in real life...but if we can't beat the Pokes, I do wonder how they would do against LSU or Alabama.

Oh right...that's what play station is for!

I'd rather see it, (vomit a little) even if it's the Pokes.

oumartin
11/17/2011, 05:15 PM
We hear this every year about the SEC and every year they win the NC..

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 05:17 PM
We hear this every year about the SEC and every year they win the NC..

Not every year. Just the past 5. We'll see...

oumartin
11/17/2011, 05:25 PM
We heard the same thing in 08 when OU was scoring in bunches and what happened?

a great defense will shut down a great offense.

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 05:28 PM
We heard the same thing in 08 when OU was scoring in bunches and what happened?

a great defense will shut down a great offense.

I agree, but the question is are the SEC defenses "great", or are they statistically good because the SEC offenses are mediocre?

soonercastor
11/17/2011, 05:32 PM
Their offenses sure do suck, but remember they have to play those great defenses.

It's the same argument we make to justify our defenses in the Big 12 being ranked below average, because they face great offenses every week.

It goes both ways.

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 05:36 PM
Their offenses sure do suck, but remember they have to play those great defenses.

It's the same argument we make to justify our defenses in the Big 12 being ranked below average, because they face great offenses every week.

It goes both ways.

True, the Big XII is the exact opposite of the SEC. However, watching both Alabama and LSU play this year, I don't remember seeing offenses that mediocre on dominant SEC teams in a while. Then again, you can argue that it's the SEC defenses.

LSUdeek
11/17/2011, 05:52 PM
Oregon: 335 yards.

LSU forced oregon out of its game plan (running with LMJ) and into 54 passes. Darron Thomas isn't that accurate. LSU forced 4 turnovers and had a 20 point lead until 0:13 remained in the game.

West Virginia: 533 yards.

LSU again forced 3 turnovers and forced WV into long drives all night with excellent punting by Brad Wing, who is leading the country averaging 0.58 yards per punt return against. Geno Smith passed the ball 65 times and had 2 interceptions, both of which led directly to LSU touchdowns. 26 point victory.

If you want to try and pass the ball 50 or more times against the best secondary in the country, you are going to lose, period.

8timechamps
11/17/2011, 05:59 PM
Oregon: 335 yards.

LSU forced oregon out of its game plan (running with LMJ) and into 54 passes. Darron Thomas isn't that accurate. LSU forced 4 turnovers and had a 20 point lead until 0:13 remained in the game.

West Virginia: 533 yards.

LSU again forced 3 turnovers and forced WV into long drives all night with excellent punting by Brad Wing, who is leading the country averaging 0.58 yards per punt return against. Geno Smith passed the ball 65 times and had 2 interceptions, both of which led directly to LSU touchdowns. 26 point victory.

If you want to try and pass the ball 50 or more times against the best secondary in the country, you are going to lose, period.

In most conferences, except the Big XII, passing the ball more than 50 times is typically in a losing effort. It seems to be a weekly occurrence in the Big XII though.

And in defense of LSU (can't believe I'm doing this), LSU's offense is better than Bama's. Which, in the end, may be why the national title stays in the SEC.

PLaw
11/17/2011, 06:10 PM
Oregon: 335 yards.

LSU forced oregon out of its game plan (running with LMJ) and into 54 passes. Darron Thomas isn't that accurate. LSU forced 4 turnovers and had a 20 point lead until 0:13 remained in the game.

West Virginia: 533 yards.

LSU again forced 3 turnovers and forced WV into long drives all night with excellent punting by Brad Wing, who is leading the country averaging 0.58 yards per punt return against. Geno Smith passed the ball 65 times and had 2 interceptions, both of which led directly to LSU touchdowns. 26 point victory.

If you want to try and pass the ball 50 or more times against the best secondary in the country, you are going to lose, period.

How do we know they are the best secondary?? Have you really played an advanced passing attack?

OU used to have a great secondary in the 70's when everybody ran the ball. In the 80's, we learned that maybe it wasn't as stacked as we thought when we faced off with the "U" and other really good passing teams.

Also, the talking heads in the media today couldn't stop ragging on Oregon's record when teams have an extra week to prepare for them. They referenced their bowl games and the first game of this season against LSU.

Finally, it's really a shame that no matter which bowl game OU lands in, we will not have our No. 1 RB or No. 1 WR and we are without an inspirational SR. LB. Seems virtually every year when have key injuries or some players that have a brain cramp and get suspended for the game. I would have loved to see OU and LSU (or Bama) with both at full strength. That would have been fun.

BOOMER!

NYC Poke
11/17/2011, 06:12 PM
We hear this every year about the SEC and every year they win the NC..

Not necessarily. When their premier teams had good offenses, it was all about speed at the skill positions. Now that they lack this, it"s about their D.

yermom
11/17/2011, 06:15 PM
We heard the same thing in 08 when OU was scoring in bunches and what happened?

a great defense will shut down a great offense.

LSU doesn't have Tebow and Harvin either though

SoonerShay
11/17/2011, 07:25 PM
Defense wins championships guys, defense wins championships. Never mind that Auburn had a mediocre, abysmal against the pass, defense last year. Or that UF had a top level offense to go along with defense in 2008 and 2006, or that Bama got to face GG(speaks for itself) or that LSU got to face a TOSU team that did not belong in that title game.

Seriously if defense wins championships how in the world did Auburn win the SEC last year?

stoops the eternal pimp
11/17/2011, 09:19 PM
Auburn's defense wasn't really that bad....Usually there is a correlation between high powered offenses with fast tempos and low defensive rankings...Like so much is made out of the OSU defensive ranking but they really aren't that bad when you look at how much they are on the field and clean up duty

NYC Poke
11/17/2011, 09:33 PM
Defense wins championships guys, defense wins championships. Never mind that Auburn had a mediocre, abysmal against the pass, defense last year. Or that UF had a top level offense to go along with defense in 2008 and 2006, or that Bama got to face GG(speaks for itself) or that LSU got to face a TOSU team that did not belong in that title game.

Seriously if defense wins championships how in the world did Auburn win the SEC last year?

They outbid everyone for Cam Newton.

NYC Poke
11/17/2011, 09:35 PM
Auburn's defense wasn't really that bad....Usually there is a correlation between high powered offenses with fast tempos and low defensive rankings...Like so much is made out of the OSU defensive ranking but they really aren't that bad when you look at how much they are on the field and clean up duty

This. If you look up the FEI Index (uses sabermetrics) we're doing pretty good defensively.

sooneron
11/17/2011, 10:55 PM
If you want to try and pass the ball 50 or more times against the best secondary in the country, you are going to lose, period.

And which one of those guys (Thomas or Smith) will be drafted?

BlownGP
11/17/2011, 11:46 PM
Auburn's defense wasn't really that bad....Usually there is a correlation between high powered offenses with fast tempos and low defensive rankings...Like so much is made out of the OSU defensive ranking but they really aren't that bad when you look at how much they are on the field and clean up duty

Auburns defense was a one man show.. FARLEY!!! Every time the ball was snapped he was on the Oregon side.
There defense was not that great, hell they what 3-4 games where Newton had come from behind and win the game for them.

For once though, bama and LSU defenses are good but not like years past. Other then Oregon and WV, LSU has played nobody that can move the ball and like I've said for the millionth time. LSU's game plan is managing the clock. Run the ball until the other team is beat to death. Thats why im waiting until they have to play from behind and see what happens. See how good there offense really is.

thecrimsoncrusader
11/18/2011, 10:11 AM
Auburn's defense wasn't really that bad....Usually there is a correlation between high powered offenses with fast tempos and low defensive rankings...Like so much is made out of the OSU defensive ranking but they really aren't that bad when you look at how much they are on the field and clean up duty

What about Oklahoma St. against the most athletic (ATM and Texas) OR well coached teams (KSU) they faced? OSU's defense didn't fare so well.

stoops the eternal pimp
11/18/2011, 10:36 AM
So how do you translate "really aren't that bad"? I'm saying I've watched enough football this season to know they aren't the 101st defense..

SyN
11/18/2011, 10:39 AM
You can have one of the best offenses in the country... but if you can't stop anyone? it worthless....

Ask Mike Leach!!! I see Oklahoma State in the same mold... DEFENSE...but then again lets wait till they at least play a top 10 team...

delhalew
11/18/2011, 10:43 AM
You want a fun stat? The entire SEC has 13 wins over teams with winning records. The Big12 has 23.

LSUdeek
11/18/2011, 10:50 AM
Defense wins championships guys, defense wins championships. Never mind that Auburn had a mediocre, abysmal against the pass, defense last year. Or that UF had a top level offense to go along with defense in 2008 and 2006, or that Bama got to face GG(speaks for itself) or that LSU got to face a TOSU team that did not belong in that title game.

Seriously if defense wins championships how in the world did Auburn win the SEC last year?

They outscored the only team with a passing attack which could hurt them (Arkansas). LSU and Alabama had running teams last year and our running attacks were shut down for the most part by Fairley and company. LSU had their opportunities in the game but ultimately Newton was too much.

stoops the eternal pimp
11/18/2011, 10:52 AM
Well let's see..speaking of OSU defense(sorry I'm off topic here)

They are the 15th ranked defense in passing efficiency
They are the 15th ranked defense in red zone defense
They are the 20th ranked defense in tackles for loss
They are 1st in turnovers gained
They are 48th in Yards Per play on defense
Their offense is ranked 115th in ToP so guess what...Lots of time on the field due to quick striking of offense

I'm not saying they are top 10, but I would say overall judging by the eye ball test and some key numbers, the caliber of talent they have on that side of the ball, the depth, they are somewhere in the high 20s to mid 30s

Tear Down This Wall
11/18/2011, 10:58 AM
Well, if anyone should know about poor quarterbacking, it's Brock Huard.

Also, banging on an Alabama offense that's producing 40 points or more against everyone except LSU? Oh, wait...this is the same Brock Huard who one week ago was chiding the world for not believing that Boise State was as deserving as being in the national championship chatter as Bama, LSU, OU, OSU, and Oregon. That Brock Huard.

Dope.

NYC Poke
11/18/2011, 11:02 AM
You can have one of the best offenses in the country... but if you can't stop anyone? it worthless....

Ask Mike Leach!!! I see Oklahoma State in the same mold... DEFENSE...but then again lets wait till they at least play a top 10 team...

This is a pretty tired and lazy comparison.

Sooner98
11/18/2011, 11:28 AM
I used to think that a great OU offense would have no problem handling a great SEC defense. Then we played LSU, and five years later Florida, were held to 14 points both times, and my mind was changed forever. I'll never make that error again.

SyN
11/18/2011, 12:05 PM
ROFL!! Old POKE...... this is just the way I see it!!!! Wait till they play a Legit top 10 team...

8timechamps
11/18/2011, 12:08 PM
Well let's see..speaking of OSU defense(sorry I'm off topic here)

They are the 15th ranked defense in passing efficiency
They are the 15th ranked defense in red zone defense
They are the 20th ranked defense in tackles for loss
They are 1st in turnovers gained
They are 48th in Yards Per play on defense
Their offense is ranked 115th in ToP so guess what...Lots of time on the field due to quick striking of offense

I'm not saying they are top 10, but I would say overall judging by the eye ball test and some key numbers, the caliber of talent they have on that side of the ball, the depth, they are somewhere in the high 20s to mid 30s

I wouldn't go as far as to say they are a top 20 defense, but I would agree that their total defense ranking is not reflective of how good/bad their defense really is. I'd put them in the top 40, which isn't bad. The only reason I say I wouldn't rank them in the top 20, is because they've had trouble with the better teams in the league. But, they are not as bad as their rankings would suggest.

stoops the eternal pimp
11/18/2011, 12:21 PM
No they aren't top 20, but judging from what I've seen they could be anyhere from around 28-35

8timechamps
11/18/2011, 12:25 PM
No they aren't top 20, but judging from what I've seen they could be anyhere from around 28-35

I'd agree with that. Certainly better than the current statistical rank would have you believe.

Tear Down This Wall
11/18/2011, 12:48 PM
I used to think that a great OU offense would have no problem handling a great SEC defense. Then we played LSU, and five years later Florida, were held to 14 points both times, and my mind was changed forever. I'll never make that error again.

That's where I am. When the offense that scored 701 points in 2008 was held to 14...being stuff twice inside the five on four plays each by a Florida DL sporting a freshman and whatnot....

Also, our wide receivers, who seemed to run as freely as gazelle through Big 12 defenses, couldn't separate from the SEC defensive backs.

In both of those games, it was our defense, not our offense that kept us in those games.

sooneron
11/18/2011, 01:42 PM
No they aren't top 20, but judging from what I've seen they could be anyhere from around 28-35

Horsefeathers!! I'd put them around 29-36!

PalmBeachSooner
11/18/2011, 03:32 PM
We hear this every year about the SEC and every year they win the NC..

True, but this year is different, because there are no Tebow's or Newton's in the SEC. Like Huard said, if you replace the SEC QB's with Luck, Moore, Jones, Barkley, etc., the SEC wouldn't look quite as dominant defensively as they do this year.

Don't be surprised if Arkansas beats LSU. Seriously. If OU beats OSU then you could have an Arkie-OU matchup in the New Orleans.

Tear Down This Wall
11/18/2011, 03:51 PM
True, but this year is different, because there are no Tebow's or Newton's in the SEC. Like Huard said, if you replace the SEC QB's with Luck, Moore, Jones, Barkley, etc., the SEC wouldn't look quite as dominant defensively as they do this year.

Don't be surprised if Arkansas beats LSU. Seriously. If OU beats OSU then you could have an Arkie-OU matchup in the New Orleans.

Spetember 24, 2011: Alabama 38, Arkansas 14

Arkansas has the 13th ranked offense in the country, 1st in the SEC. But...they couldn't put a dent in Alabama's defense. They won't put a dent in LSU's defense in Baton Rouge either.

Someone wake up Brock Huard and his followers. Except when playing one another, the Alabama (24th) and LSU (17th) offenses have been fine.

Defensive rankings: Alabama #1, LSU #2...Arkansas #29.

I expect LSU will give Arkansas a beating of the type Alabama has already given them...in spite of Brock Huard forgetting about Alabama already shutting down Arkansas' offense.

Jmorales22
11/18/2011, 06:05 PM
People seem to have a hard time distinguishing the "SEC" from LSU/Alabama/Florida under Urban Meyer. Those three places are/were magnets for talent that in the 80s or 90s would have gone to Miami, Florida St, etc. They are carrying the flag for the entire conference, which, as whole, is otherwise full of a bunch of has-beens or nobodys.

Les Miles and Nick Saban are tapping into unlimited reserves of talented players to put on the field. Gene Chizick just caught lightning in a bottle one time and will probably be out of a job in 5 years.

silverwheels
11/18/2011, 06:23 PM
Bought lightning in a bottle?

8timechamps
11/18/2011, 07:49 PM
I guess until someone knocks off the SEC elite in a championship, they deserve to continue talking about how great they are. Which makes me want vomit.

Herr Scholz
11/18/2011, 08:00 PM
Man you guys are putting the cart before the horse.