Formula to a championship (kinda long)

[8timechamps]

With a lot of football left, I decided to redo my “formula to a championship”. Here’s what’s left, and what I think could happen to get us into the title game:
First, lets look at who is ahead of us in the BCS:
1. LSU (9-0)
2. Oklahoma State (9-0)
3. Alabama (8-1)
4. Stanford (9-0)
5. Boise State (8-0)

Now, lets break down what could happen:

Boise State – A lot of people think that Boise will get passed over (even by a one loss team). I tend to agree, as the computers are punishing them for a weak schedule. However, there is one team out there that could possibly help Boise’s case: Georgia…but, more about them later. What would really help is for TCU to go ahead and knock Boise off . TCU has two losses (to Baylor in OT opening week, and somehow a loss to SMU in OT).
I’ve watched a little bit of Boise over the past few weeks, and they are definitely beatable. They struggled with Air Force, and despite the 48-21 final score against UNLV, the game was 21-14 at half, anf 28-14 going into the fourth quarter. BSU should have mopped the floor with UNLV, but it took four quarters to put them away. So, TCU could take Boise out of the discussion.

Stanford – A lot can change this weekend. I happen to think Oregon is going to kill the trees. If that happens, then it takes Stanford out. However, that would put Oregon back into play…but, I think a win over #2 ranked OSU, on the road, would vault us ahead of them. Regardless, If Stanford can get past Oregon, they would have to play the PAC CCG, and that could very well be a rematch with a surging USC.

Alabama - ESPN is salivating over a rematch with LSU in the title game. However, I don’t think Bama goes the rest of the year without another loss. This weekend, they have to go on the road to Mississippi State, after an emotional game. Mississippi State is the team that lost a very ugly game with LSU 19-6. MSU is the only other team to play LSU close. Then there’s the Iron Bowl against Auburn later this month. No matter what you think of Auburn, you can’t automatically chalk that game up as a win for Bama.

Oklahoma State – This is the only team we have control over. We can take them out of the picture directly. Needless to say, Bedlam is going to be huge this year.


LSU – I can’t bring myself to believe LSU is the best team in the country, They do have a very good defense, but their offense is awful. Anyway, they don’t have an easy schedule to end the year either. They have a big game against Arkansas to end the regular season, and if they win that, they will probably face a Georgia team looking to prove they are not the same team that started the year 0-2.

After looking at all of that, you can see that nothing is out of the question. Sure, a lot of things need to happen, things that we wouldn’t have to worry about if we were undefeated, but it’s pointless to rehash that.
After the Tech loss, when I posted my first “formula”, I think I gave us a 5% chance of being in the title game. Now, I give us about a 15% chance. There is still life…

Of course, we have to win out. And the Bedlam game will be tougher without #85 and #8, but I happen to think we are still the better team. Now we just need to prove that.

[lasooner123]

usc cant play iin the ccg

[8timechamps]

usc cant play iin the ccg

Doh! Well, ASU then.

[BoulderSooner79]

I agree TCU could beat Boise, but Boise has no shot regardless, so that's irrelevant.

USC is not eligible for the PAC CCG. The PAC is sort of like the SEC in that the Stanford/UO winner should kill ASU/UCLA. To take the PAC12 out of the equation, the most likely path would be UO beating Stanford and USC upsetting the Duck. The Ducks do play USC in a regular season game. The other route is for Stanford to polish off the Ducks and then lose to the Domers.

[soonerman4life]

Boise is irrelevent if they win out or not
Ducks will beat Stanford
Sooners over Pokes
Bama - even if they win out and battle OU for 2nd place, OU may win the battle because the Big XII is a tougher conference top to bottom then the SEC
A long shot, buy food for thought.

[PDXsooner]

Anyone who thinks it isn't possible... Refer to 2007

[soonercastor]

As I've been saying all along, all we need is Stanford to lose.

Oregon - rematch, out
Bama - rematch out
Boise - Schedule, out (Our biggest threat IMO)

[WileyCoyote]

With a lot of football left, I decided to redo my “formula to a championship”. Here’s what’s left, and what I think could happen to get us into the title game:
First, lets look at who is ahead of us in the BCS:
1. LSU (9-0)
2. Oklahoma State (9-0)
3. Alabama (8-1)
4. Stanford (9-0)
5. Boise State (8-0)

Now, lets break down what could happen:

Boise State – A lot of people think that Boise will get passed over (even by a one loss team). I tend to agree, as the computers are punishing them for a weak schedule. However, there is one team out there that could possibly help Boise’s case: Georgia…but, more about them later. What would really help is for TCU to go ahead and knock Boise off . TCU has two losses (to Baylor in OT opening week, and somehow a loss to SMU in OT).
I’ve watched a little bit of Boise over the past few weeks, and they are definitely beatable. They struggled with Air Force, and despite the 48-21 final score against UNLV, the game was 21-14 at half, anf 28-14 going into the fourth quarter. BSU should have mopped the floor with UNLV, but it took four quarters to put them away. So, TCU could take Boise out of the discussion.

Stanford – A lot can change this weekend. I happen to think Oregon is going to kill the trees. If that happens, then it takes Stanford out. However, that would put Oregon back into play…but, I think a win over #2 ranked OSU, on the road, would vault us ahead of them. Regardless, If Stanford can get past Oregon, they would have to play the PAC CCG, and that could very well be a rematch with a surging USC.

Alabama - ESPN is salivating over a rematch with LSU in the title game. However, I don’t think Bama goes the rest of the year without another loss. This weekend, they have to go on the road to Mississippi State, after an emotional game. Mississippi State is the team that lost a very ugly game with LSU 19-6. MSU is the only other team to play LSU close. Then there’s the Iron Bowl against Auburn later this month. No matter what you think of Auburn, you can’t automatically chalk that game up as a win for Bama.

Oklahoma State – This is the only team we have control over. We can take them out of the picture directly. Needless to say, Bedlam is going to be huge this year.


LSU – I can’t bring myself to believe LSU is the best team in the country, They do have a very good defense, but their offense is awful. Anyway, they don’t have an easy schedule to end the year either. They have a big game against Arkansas to end the regular season, and if they win that, they will probably face a Georgia team looking to prove they are not the same team that started the year 0-2.

After looking at all of that, you can see that nothing is out of the question. Sure, a lot of things need to happen, things that we wouldn’t have to worry about if we were undefeated, but it’s pointless to rehash that.
After the Tech loss, when I posted my first “formula”, I think I gave us a 5% chance of being in the title game. Now, I give us about a 15% chance. There is still life…

Of course, we have to win out. And the Bedlam game will be tougher without #85 and #8, but I happen to think we are still the better team. Now we just need to prove that.

Good post, you are right about "kinda long" though. ALL those scenarious would have to line up. My heart says YES, but if I was a betting man, my wallet would say NO to those independent bets.

[MI Sooner]

I think what we want to happen is hard to say at this point, since I think projecting the polls is tough. If we win out, we should be no less than 3 in the computers. I think we'd pass Boise, Bama, and OSU. I think that only Ark behind us has a chance of passing us in the computers, but that would likely require them winning the SEC CCG. So I think we have very little chance of being 2 in the polls but missing the NCG. There are several scenarios in which we could get in as the 3 or even 4 team in the polls, but I suspect that voters will be aware of this, not like it, and strategically vote to keep is out. An example is if we and Stanford both win out. There's a good chance we'd be two in the computers and they'd be 5th (behind LSU, OU, OSU, and Bama). I think the voters would keep Boise 3 and split votes between us, bama, and OSU keeping Stanford in the game. If we got up to 3 in the polls in the a I've scenario, we'd be in.

[BoulderSooner79]

No non-AQ team has ever made it and this year will be no different. Boise's schedule is weaker this year than ever (computers) and they are not as good as last year either (voters).

[kevpks]

Alabama - ESPN is salivating over a rematch with LSU in the title game. However, I don’t think Bama goes the rest of the year without another loss. This weekend, they have to go on the road to Mississippi State, after an emotional game. Mississippi State is the team that lost a very ugly game with LSU 19-6. MSU is the only other team to play LSU close. Then there’s the Iron Bowl against Auburn later this month. No matter what you think of Auburn, you can’t automatically chalk that game up as a win for Bama.

I think what bugs me most about the Bama situation is that if their is a rematch with LSU it will likely be us who makes it happen. It would be annoying to beat OSU and move to third behind Bama. Obviously, winning the Big XII again would be awesome but it would be just like 2007 when we beat the number 1 team in the country to put LSU in the championship game against a weak Ohio State team. I still think if there was a red N rather than a glittery gold M on the helmet of that #1 opponent, we would have put ourselves in the title game that year with that win.

[LVSOONER15]

As I've been saying all along, all we need is Stanford to lose.

Oregon - rematch, out
Bama - rematch out
Boise - Schedule, out (Our biggest threat IMO)

I have agreed with that all along as well.

[jumperstop]

I agree TCU could beat Boise, but Boise has no shot regardless, so that's irrelevant.

USC is not eligible for the PAC CCG. The PAC is sort of like the SEC in that the Stanford/UO winner should kill ASU/UCLA. To take the PAC12 out of the equation, the most likely path would be UO beating Stanford and USC upsetting the Duck. The Ducks do play USC in a regular season game. The other route is for Stanford to polish off the Ducks and then lose to the Domers. I think this game will be a lot closer than some people are thinking. I'm looking for ND to pull the upset.

[westbrooke]

As I've been saying all along, all we need is Stanford to lose.

Oregon - rematch, out
Bama - rematch out
Boise - Schedule, out (Our biggest threat IMO)

That's the scenario I'm hoping for, as well. I've been surprised how many people on ESPN are talking up the possibility of a rematch even after watching the painful first round. But I'm hearing some voices speaking up against a rematch now too. Both the PTI guys were against it.

[jumperstop]

That's the scenario I'm hoping for, as well. I've been surprised how many people on ESPN are talking up the possibility of a rematch even after watching the painful first round. But I'm hearing some voices speaking up against a rematch now too. Both the PTI guys were against it.

I think a lot of the rematch talk is from the guys who do all the espn college football stuff. They probably have an agenda and are probably more SEC **** suckers. But there are a lot more people who get votes out there so end the end I hope this idea dies down.

My concern, what if LSU loses to Arky? That would help Oregon out a lot in because they wouldn't be in a rematch for the championship if they had to play Bama or Arky...

[OU_Sooners75]

You over complicated it.

If Stanford loses just one game they are out. Boise State has no chance unless they are the only undefeated team by the end of the season...and even then, I don't see them being in over a 1 loss Big 12 and a 1 loss SEC team.

If OU beats OSU then OU will be in the BCS title game. With Alabama being off that weekend, barring LSU losing 2 games in conference play, then OU has a very good shot being the last to play and win a top 5 matchup.

Also, don't forget that OU would have also played and beat another top 25 team on the road in Baylor....

Short version, it hinges on Stanford right now. If Stanford loses and OU beats OSU, ISU, and Baylor...OU will be in the BCS title game.

[OU_Sooners75]

Also, OU will be in a BCS bowl game regardless of what happens outside of losing to Baylor or Iowa State.

If OSU beats (god forbid) OU and heads to the BCS Title game...then OU will get an at-large bid to most likely the Fiesta Bowl. If we win out, we will be playing in the Fiesta. If Stanford loses, we will be in the BCS Title game.

So we need to blast Baylor and Iowa State, then beat OSU...even if by one to have a shot at the title.

[pphilfran]

Stranger things have happened...

[GreenSooner]

I think this game will be a lot closer than some people are thinking. I'm looking for ND to pull the upset.

Gah! I just realized that having spent one night rooting for SUC earlier this year, now I'll have to spend a day rooting for ND! Luck(ily), I've always hated Stanfurd, so that will make this a little easier. But not a lot.

[jumperstop]

Gah! I just realized that having spent one night rooting for SUC earlier this year, now I'll have to spend a day rooting for ND! Luck(ily), I've always hated Stanfurd, so that will make this a little easier. But not a lot.

ND didn't completely suck against usc who gave Stanford a game...

[NOVSooner]

the thing is, too, that no one would give OU a chance against lsu and people would be so infuriated that OU made it in over bama to begin with. i do believe stanford will lose and osu and i really wish bama would lose 1 more time. that would be the perfect scenario. oh, and us to win out!