How much does strength of conference really matter?

[jkjsooner]

It seems like every year we hear more and more about how the SEC is so tough. A lot of that is true but how much does it really matter?

The main reason to be concerned is if you're comparing an SEC team with a similar record to a non-SEC team. Outside of BCS invitations and especially the title game it's really only a pride thing.

Even when talking about the national title race, how much does conference strength really matter? My point is that strength of schedule should be the prime indicator of a team's worthiness over another team with a similar record. Obviously conference strength plays a role in SOS but it hardly is the entire picture. Plenty of years our SOS ranks right up there with the top of the SEC - mainly due to the fact that SEC schools tend to downgrade their OOC schedules to make up for their in-conference schedule. If FSU turns out to be as good as people say and especially if Texas rebounds this year, our SOS could easily be right up there with the best SEC schools.

I think it also gets lost that in a 12 team conference, in-conference SOS can vary widely as well. If you're in the SEC east and you happen to not play Alabama or LSU this year (South Carolina and Georgia) you really have no reason to boast about your schedule - especially if you don't play any top 10 OOC teams. (Looking at South Carolina's schedule, their toughest game is against #14 Arkansas. Meanwhile we play 3 top 10 teams.)


All that being said, with Nebraska gone (and also not playing a conference championship game) if we remain in the Big 12 we really need to try our hardest to schedule at least one top 10 OOC game a year and probably another top 20 OOC game. It's impossible to predict years in advance who will be ranked top 10 or 20 but we're really going to have to try.

[jkjsooner]

Keep in mind I'm talking about the difference between the ACC/Big10/Big12/SEC/PAC10 conferences and how any SOS difference can be made up with OOC scheduling. It become trickier when talking about the Big East or non-BCS conferences.

[rekamrettuB]

All that being said, with Nebraska gone (and also not playing a conference championship game) if we remain in the Big 12 we really need to try our hardest to schedule at least one top 10 OOC game a year and probably another top 20 OOC game. It's impossible to predict years in advance who will be ranked top 10 or 20 but we're really going to have to try.

OU has done a great job lining up quality OOC games. With Nebraska gone that only affects 2 out of 4 years anyway and playing Mizzu every year now probably makes up for that. Nebraska hasn't been boosting SOS recently until the last year or two.

Now SEC guys would say this; Our SOS takes a hit because we beat up on each other and all the midlevel teams have 3-5 losses due to that.

Saying that, if OU keeps its OOC games for future and runs through Texas, Mizzu, Tex AM, Ok St, TTech each year they will be just fine come year end.

[OU Adonis]

The perceived strongest conference has indeed won the last 5 NCS or something like that.

[jkjsooner]

Now SEC guys would say this; Our SOS takes a hit because we beat up on each other and all the midlevel teams have 3-5 losses due to that.

The problem is that the W/L record for all conference games is always .500. Big 12 teams beat up on each other as well. So does the MAC. You can't really say that harms SEC SOS more than it does any other conference.

Aside from the fact you do not play every conference opponent, about the only room to measure SOS is with your opponents OOC schedule. For years the SEC has loaded up with weak OOC games which only boosts the entire conference's SOS.

I'm not saying SOS calculations are perfect. It's far from it considering the relatively few OOC games teams play. I am saying that it's a heck of a lot more accurate than "any SEC team with one or no losses must always play in the national title game" rules you hear from SEC homers.

If South Carolina wins the SEC this year with one loss, even after a win over Bama or LSU in the championship game, I think there is a valid argument that some one loss teams from another conference would be more deserving. Being in the SEC does not automatically make your schedule tougher than every single non-SEC team. It just isn't so.

[rekamrettuB]

I'm with ya...I'm just saying what I've heard from SEC fans. They have more 3-5 loss teams because of parity and that their 3-5 loss teams are better than other conferences' 1-2 loss teams. More perceived SOS than actual computer based figures.

[jkjsooner]

The perceived strongest conference has indeed won the last 5 NCS or something like that.

I'm not denying that the SEC has been the strongest conference or that their teams haven't been deserving most years.

I will question LSU's championship won in their own back yard when they had two losses. The only reason they were put into that game was because they were in the SEC and I don't think winning in the Superdome is really an amazing feat.

It's gotten to the point where I honestly believe it's easier to win the national title in the SEC because they are given such a benefit of the doubt. That's become more true since we got in before Auburn. Add to that the fact that 50% of the national title games are in SEC country (now that Miami is irrelevant) and they've got a good gig going.


Let's play some of those games in Ohio and see how the SEC fares. They wouldn't be 5-0.

[MeMyself&Me]

I think it only matters in terms of national respect in human polls. Right now, the Big 12 is perceived as being very weak which was NOT the case up through 2008.

[oudavid1]

Auburn was in the SEC and won all their games and didnt make it.

[Lott's Bandana]

The Florida Gators, during the 14 years of the BCS system, have NEVER played an out-of-conference regular season football game outside of the state of Florida.


There is no question there are several excellent teams in the SEC, however, when it comes to scheduling OOC games (UGA excluded), most of them are simply....pussies.

[thecrimsoncrusader]

One thing I have realized is the strength of a conference doesn't determine a strength of the team. A team either has what it takes or they don't and the opponents they face do not define them as they are defined by the actual experiences themselves.

The SEC has been good during their 5 BCS title game winning streak but it hasn't been without a lot of luck. I mean, LSU plays the BCS title game in their house and have 2 losses heading into that game and Alabama gets to play Texas without Colt McCoy and Florida got to play Oklahoma without Oklahoma's most important offensive player not named Sam Bradford along with Oklahoma not having their most important defensive player in Ryan Reynolds. It's not speculation to say Tim Tebow doesn't go over 100 rushing yards if Ryan Reynolds plays in that game, it's called not being stupid and acknowledging the truth. The 2006 Florida team benefited from playing a Big 10 team and the 2010 Auburn team, well, let's just say despite their 22-19 victory over Oregon, Auburn wasn't exactly an eligible team.

Regardless, the SEC's fluke run ends this year.

[budbarrybob]

Seems to matter for Boise and TCU

[thecrimsoncrusader]

That 2001 Miami team played in the Big East. Florida St. won a title or two in the weak ACC and Bobby Bowden could never win it all until he joined the ACC, because his schedules got easier instead of harder since Florida St. was no longer playing their independent schedule. Winning a national title is 50% talent, 20% coaching and 30% luck. And a big part of that luck is not having key injuries, landing on the right year to have a NC contending team that also has a favorable schedule and sometimes, playing a team in the NC game that doesn't have all of their key players. Lots of factors.

[MeMyself&Me]

Seems to matter for Boise and TCU

Boise and TCU have yet to combine a strong OOC with an undefeated season. By strong, I mean more than one quality OOC opponent.

[Lott's Bandana]

Boise and TCU have yet to combine a strong OOC with an undefeated season. By strong, I mean more than one quality OOC opponent.

This ends this year. If Boise beats UGA and likely runs the table, they're in.

I've heard this too many times from all the talking heads this summer to believe otherwise. The year BYU "won" the MNC was the worst overall CFB season, ever. Here it comes again.

[MI Sooner]

The Florida Gators, during the 14 years of the BCS system, have NEVER played an out-of-conference regular season football game outside of the state of Florida.


There is no question there are several excellent teams in the SEC, however, when it comes to scheduling OOC games (UGA excluded), most of them are simply....pussies.

No kidding. What a bunch of pussies, playing road games at FSU and Miami. I can't believe a team would schedule road games at FSU and Miami and try to take credit for scheduling good OOC competition.

[MeMyself&Me]

This ends this year. If Boise beats UGA and likely runs the table, they're in.

I've heard this too many times from all the talking heads this summer to believe otherwise. The year BYU "won" the MNC was the worst overall CFB season, ever. Here it comes again.

I don't know, we'll see. Boise certainly benefits from TCU still being in the MWC but BYU is gone now. I don't know that ONE good OOC win will be good enough when if there are two other teams from BCS conferences that are undefeated. Boise's SOC wasn't that bad last year though. Just didn't combine it with an undefeated season.

[MI Sooner]

As for OU's SOS, assuming the 9th conference game replaced a cupcake OOC game, I think our regular season SOS may go up [edit: by which I mean, get harder] in the 10-team Big XII. Over four years, we likely would have had home and homes against Colorado and Nebraska, and four home games against cupcakes. Replace those eight game with home and homes against Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State, and I'm not sure it's weaker. In fact, I think it's stronger. However, it's stronger due to fewer bad games, rather than more really tough ones.

What has the chance to hurt our SOS more is no Big XII championship game, although occassionaly faced a dud of an opponent there, too.

[MeMyself&Me]

What has the chance to hurt our SOS more is no Big XII championship game, although occassionaly faced a dud of an opponent there, too.

This is the biggest issue if you're simply talking about SOS in the computers. Particularly now that most BCS conferences have a champ game. Also, even a dud North champion would make the SOS rank go up.

[Lott's Bandana]

No kidding. What a bunch of pussies, playing road games at FSU and Miami. I can't believe a team would schedule road games at FSU and Miami and try to take credit for scheduling good OOC competition.

Since I sense some sarcasm(?) there, I would point out that playing the same teams (and coaches) every year is a HUGE advantage, although they have only played Miami less than half of those 14 seasons, and half of those were in Gainesville (as are the FSU games). When they choose not to play Miami, they certainly don't replace them with home and homes vs. Ohio State, USC or even someone like Cincinnati.

Nobody would argue that Coach Stoops and his staff don't have the BigXII pretty much figured out, from a scheming perspective. This is why there seems to be a puzzling challenge when we go to a tough OOC opponent or play in a bowl game. We struggle playing in Cincinnati or Miami or UCLA, partly because they are teams we don't play over and over.

[MI Sooner]

Since I sense some sarcasm(?) there, I would point out that playing the same teams (and coaches) every year is a HUGE advantage, although they have only played Miami less than half of those 14 seasons, and half of those were in Gainesville (as are the FSU games). When they choose not to play Miami, they certainly don't replace them with home and homes vs. Ohio State, USC or even someone like Cincinnati.

Nobody would argue that Coach Stoops and his staff don't have the BigXII pretty much figured out, from a scheming perspective. This is why there seems to be a puzzling challenge when we go to a tough OOC opponent or play in a bowl game. We struggle playing in Cincinnati or Miami or UCLA, partly because they are teams we don't play over and over.


I was being a bit of a sarcastic dick. I'll avoid sarcasm in asking why Florida would obtain an advantage in playing Florida State every year, but Florida State wouldn't get that same advantage from having Florida on their schedule every year. I guess I could see an argument that maybe there's less chance of an unusual occurrence (upset) if you're familiar with an opponent. So, if you're the better team, maybe you're more likely to win a game against an inferior team you play often than an inferior team with whom you're unfamiliar. If that were the case, we'd be better off playing Tulsa every year than a rotation of teams of comparable quality. However, over a 14 year stretch, I think of UF and FSU as much closer to a matchup of equals.

I would venture that the Gator's seven road games against FSU and 1-2 against Miami over the last 14 years are harder than our hardest 8-9 OOC road games. In fact, I think we've only played two games (3, if you count BYU as a road game) against teams that finished ranked under Stoops (last 12 years). I'm just going off memory there, but the others would be UCLA in 2005 and Miami in 2009. Other than those, we played Washington (weren't they 0-12), Oregon (ranked when we played them, then tanked), Tulsa (meh), Bama (tough environment against mediocre team), Cincinnati (mediocre team, at best), Air Force (meh), Lousiville (meh, again), ND (mediocre)...

Who am I missing? I remember SDSU, TCU, and Cal from Blake's days, but I'm not sure of the year.

Anyway, I would agree that most SEC teams have weak OOC schedules, but you could say the same for Big XII teams. Colorado always seemed to schedule well, and we have lately. Iowa State has their annual game with Iowa. I'd say that weak OOC schedules are partly compensation for tough conference schedules, but also indicative of the fact that you're a strong program that can sell out your stadium for East Popcorn State. Teams on the west coast or with less fan interest make more money from home and homes with name opponents than they do from two half-full games against teams who demand 750k appearance fees.