US auto sales

[pphilfran]

A strange month...US sales up due to the inability of Japan to produce in the wake of the earthquake/tsunami/nuke meltdown...though US sales still at lows compared to peaks of three years ago...

June year on year sales change.

GM up 10%
Ford up 13
Chrysler up 30

Toyota down 21% (Chrysler outsold them by 10k units)
Honda down 21
Nissan up 11
VW up 30
Mazda up 6
Hyundai up 15
Kia up 41 (Sister companies Hyundai and Kia outsold Toyota)

Bimmer up 15
Mercedes up 17
Porsche up 19
Ferrari up 78%

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/totalvehiclesales16.jpg

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/importvehiclesales16.jpg

http://i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/pphilfran/domesticautosales16.jpg

[sappstuf]

I saw the Nissan Leaf sold 1700 and the Chevy Volt sold 560.

[pphilfran]

I saw the Nissan Leaf sold 1700 and the Chevy Volt sold 560.

Record sales!

[sappstuf]

There is always spin! :)

The sad thing is, only the wealthier can afford the Volt, so your average Joe taxpayer is paying for them to buy the car. Talk about tax breaks for the rich!

[pphilfran]

There is always spin! :)

The sad thing is, only the wealthier can afford the Volt, so your average Joe taxpayer is paying for them to buy the car. Talk about tax breaks for the rich!

It it the start up of new technology and initial costs will be high...just like computers...or tv's...or cell phones..

As time goes on the product will become better and cheaper...

Down the road they will dump the gas motor/battery and replace it with a fuel cell...

[sappstuf]

It it the start up of new technology and initial costs will be high...just like computers...or tv's...or cell phones..

As time goes on the product will become better and cheaper...

Down the road they will dump the gas motor/battery and replace it with a fuel cell...

That is true, but taxpayers were not subsidizing $10K plasmas when they first came out and sales of those turned out just fine and/or was replaced with better technology.

[pphilfran]

That is true, but taxpayers were not subsidizing $10K plasmas when they first came out and sales of those turned out just fine.

I understand...you probably know my overall stance as well...

I would be bumping up the gas tax and use the increased fuel cost to move people towards more efficient vehicles...I would think about lowering the diesel tax...

CAFE standards are of limited use in the real world...fuel prices dictate vehicle sales...

I would be trying to boost fuel cell technology...about the time electrics hit full stride new fuel cell vehicles should be hitting the market...then instead of cheap gas and expensive electric it will be cheap electric and expensive fuel cell...

[diverdog]

It it the start up of new technology and initial costs will be high...just like computers...or tv's...or cell phones..

As time goes on the product will become better and cheaper...

Down the road they will dump the gas motor/battery and replace it with a fuel cell...

fuel cells are a long way off.

[Curly Bill]

Ferrari up 78%. Glad I could help out. ;)

[pphilfran]

fuel cells are a long way off.


So is cheap electric....

I just think there will be a crossroads somewhere...it will take at least 10 years for electrics to really get a decent hold on sales...I think within 10 or 15 years we could see the beginnings of true retail fuel cell...

[sappstuf]

I understand...you probably know my overall stance as well...

I would be bumping up the gas tax and use the increased fuel cost to move people towards more efficient vehicles...I would think about lowering the diesel tax...

CAFE standards are of limited use in the real world...fuel prices dictate vehicle sales...

I would be trying to boost fuel cell technology...about the time electrics hit full stride new fuel cell vehicles should be hitting the market...then instead of cheap gas and expensive electric it will be cheap electric and expensive fuel cell...

If people can't afford the gas, they probably can't afford a new car.

[pphilfran]

Let everybody know in advance...bump it up slowly..a total of an additional buck over 4 or 5 years...

I would keep diesel low to help keep trucking costs in line...plus diesel is a high efficient fuel in passenger vehicles...

[soonercruiser]

Chrysler up 30%???!!!!
Wonder why the two news reports I saw/heard only made a big deal about Ford and GM being up???
:rolleyes:

[StoopTroup]

The 2012 PT Cruiser is teh awesome

[soonercruiser]

Have a cup of coffee there Stoop!
You are drifting off on us....:P

[Mongo]

Chrysler up 30%???!!!!
Wonder why the two news reports I saw/heard only made a big deal about Ford and GM being up???
:rolleyes:


The 2012 PT Cruiser is teh awesome

virginity is up78%

[OutlandTrophy]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gm-channel-stuffing-hits-record-dealer-inventory-surges-june-all-time-high-605000-units

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/GM%20Channel%20Stuffing%20June_0.jpg

[pphilfran]

I knew they were building inventory but I didn't realize it was that high....

I am not sure if it is happening this year but they usually have their model year changeover in July or Aug...

The media was touting how sales were up year on year in June...hell, the trend ain't looking too hot...even with Japan struggling we have been in a downward sales trend this year...

[AlboSooner]

Ferrari up 78%

wow. A friend of mine just got back from cali and was a bit surprised to see so many people with so many expensive cars, when considering the economical shape the state is in.

[sappstuf]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gm-channel-stuffing-hits-record-dealer-inventory-surges-june-all-time-high-605000-units

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/GM%20Channel%20Stuffing%20June_0.jpg

An article about that today.


GM’s Widening Truck Inventories Risk Return to ‘Bad Habits’ of 2008: Cars

General Motors Co. (GM) stocked Jim Ellis Chevrolet in Atlanta with plenty of Silverado full-size pickups in early 2011, part of a wager on a strong economic recovery. The strategy is backfiring.

“We thought that this year would bring back the kind of economic activity that would translate into us selling more trucks,” Mark Frost, the dealership’s general manager, said in a phone interview. “It’s not happening.”

Supply of Silverado has ballooned to 6 1/2 months worth at the dealership, a figure Frost, 52, calls “a little scary.” The Detroit-based automaker, 33 percent owned by the U.S. after its 2009 bankruptcy, has 280,000 Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups on dealers’ lots around the country. If sales continue at June’s rate, that would be enough to last until November.

After GM’s truck inventory swelled to 122 days worth of average sales, the company said 100 to 110 will be normal going forward for such a large and complex line of vehicles, compared with 60 to 70 days for most models. Peter Nesvold, a Jefferies & Co. analyst, isn’t convinced. Ford Motor Co. (F), which makes similar trucks, is running at 79 days, and Nesvold says GM averaged 78 days on hand at year end from 2002 to 2010.

“It’s unbelievable that after this huge taxpayer bailout and the bankruptcy that we’re right back to where we were,” Nesvold, who has a “hold” rating on the stock, said in a telephone interview. “There’s no credibility.” In a research note he asked: “Is GM falling into old, bad habits?”

Managing the Business

“Unequivocally no,” Don Johnson, vice president of U.S. sales, said in a July 3 interview in response to the question. “We’re managing the business to match production with demand in the marketplace. Nothing in the last few months that we have done would indicate any different.”

Two plants in Michigan and Indiana are idle through July 15, and GM “may make some tweaks or additional adjustments if necessary,” Johnson said on a July 1 conference call. Truck output will slow in the second half of the year, he said.

The net effect of GM carrying higher truck supply is pulling ahead 2012 earnings into 2011, said Nesvold, who has a $36 price target on the stock. “They feel a lot of pressure to put up some good numbers,” he said.

GM rose 28 cents to $30.86 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have declined 6.5 percent from their $33 initial public offering price in November. The U.S. Treasury Department, which still holds more than 500 million GM shares, is waiting until at least August for another stock sale, a person familiar with the planning said last month.

GM Share Offerings

Additional offerings would follow second-quarter earnings, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. Executives at GM have discussed buying some of the government’s shares, a move the Treasury isn’t interested in, the person said.

GM’s June deliveries of cars and trucks rose 10 percent to 215,358 vehicles, according to a July 1 statement. The increase, which fell short of seven analysts’ average estimate of 18 percent, outpaced the market’s gain of 7.1 percent.

GM had the two U.S. best-selling cars in June. The new Chevrolet Cruze was the No. 1 car with 24,896 sold. The Chevrolet Malibu was just 1,159 units behind.

Instead of focusing on GM’s showing in the car segment, analysts on a company call concentrated on trucks. Pickups generate more profit per vehicle than passenger cars, analysts say. GM doesn’t disclose financial results for specific models.

The company took questions from nine analysts on the call. Seven of them asked about trucks. None mentioned Cruze or Malibu.

‘Subpar’ Truck Sales

“Truck sales are pretty subpar, and that’s really the only area that is getting my attention,” Paul Ballew, chief economist for Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co., said in a phone interview. “If you’re at GM or Ford, you’re certainly focused on that issue right now, and you should be.”

Full-size pickups are still the two top-selling vehicles in the U.S. Ford sold 264,079 F-Series in the year’s first half, a 9.9 percent increase, while customers bought 182,785 of GM’s Silverado, a gain of 9.6 percent.

The volumes are much lower than before the recession and the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler Group LLC, the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based automaker, now controlled by Fiat SpA. (F) In June 2005 alone, GM sold 109,359 Silverados when it offered employee discounts to all consumers. Ford followed suit and sold 126,905 F-Series pickups the next month.

GM’s target of 100 to 110 days supply of trucks at the end of this year and next year is higher than some competitors in part because Silverado and Sierra have fewer direct sales to fleet customers, Johnson said. Those orders spend almost no time in inventory, which can lower the days-supply figure.

Truck Inventory Norm

Trucks also require more inventory than the industry standard of about 60 days in order to meet demand for different combinations of weight classes, cab types, engines and trim levels, according to GM’s Johnson and Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power & Associates. A truck supply in the 70s or 80s “isn’t considered high,” Schuster said last week in a phone interview.

“When you’re north of 100, it suggests there’s too much,” he said. “Even if you need a lot of variety, that’s still pushing it.”

The higher inventory is helping GM gain share among retail buyers, said Tom Henderson, a company spokesman. The automaker added 2.7 percentage points of retail share in the full-size truck segment and 2.4 points in heavy-duty pickups through May, the most recent data available, he said.

Commercial Buyers

Dealers also want to have enough supply to account for bulk purchases from commercial buyers, said Mike Bowsher, a GMC dealer and president of Carl Black Automotive Group, which has stores in Georgia, Florida and Tennessee.
“You could have a plumbing company walk in and say, ‘I need 15 of them today, or I need 40 -- go find me 20 more,’” Bowsher said phone interview. “That will raise your average day supply. The commercial side can be slow, and then they’ll buy all at once.”

GM is forecasting a rebound in truck sales during the second half, Johnson said. The automaker sees trucks rising to an 11 percent share of the U.S. retail market for the year. It was as low as 9 percent in April, when gasoline prices approached their peak this year of $3.99 a gallon, the highest level since July 2008, according to AAA.

“If they’re looking at an 11 percent figure, it’s probably not too far off,” Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at Santa Monica, California-based Edmunds.com, said in a telephone interview. “We’ve been in the 10 percent range for the past few months, and you can argue that this has been the most difficult time to sell large trucks.”

‘Dated’ Product

GM’s challenge will be staying competitive in the segment with “dated” product and may need to start “juicing incentives” in the third quarter, said Ballew, who had been a chief sales analyst at GM before its bankruptcy.
GM’s current lineup of pickups hasn’t been updated since the 2006 model year. Johnson said the company increased truck production earlier this year in part to account for when plants are idled in 2012 to convert for output of next-generation trucks, declining to give specifics on the timing of shutdowns. Ford has benefited by offering an optional V6 engine with its F-Series after not doing so for two model years. Those with V6 engines outsold V8-equipped models in May and June, the first time that’s happened in consecutive months since the 1980s, Ken Czubay, Ford’s sales chief, said on a July 1 conference call.

‘More in Balance’

Frost, the Atlanta Chevrolet dealer, said he hopes to have truck inventory back in the three- to four-month range before the end of September. He wants to take delivery of more models from GM like Cruze and the Chevrolet Equinox crossover, which has increased sales 43 percent this year.
GM’s Johnson says he sees inventory of higher-mileage cars and lower-mileage trucks being “more in balance” by fourth quarter. The March 11 earthquake near Japan helped deplete industrywide inventory of high-mileage cars.
“General Motors has so many hot-selling vehicles that it’s kind of bipolar,” said Frost, who has been selling cars since 1987. “It’s a strange place in inventory overall.”

I'm sure the dealer wants more Cruzes and Equinoxes, but they don't make GM money.. That is why the analysts don't ask questions about them.

[Scott D]

FWIW, Chrysler is in the middle of a one month 'vacation' at a few of their plants right now (especially truck plants) because of a lack of parts from Japan.

[pphilfran]

An article about that today.



I'm sure the dealer wants more Cruzes and Equinoxes, but they don't make GM money.. That is why the analysts don't ask questions about them.

In all fairness it takes a lot of time and money to change a plant from truck production to auto production...

They plan at least a year in advance on what to produce and market...with low gas prices large vehicles and truck sales are strong...high gas prices will allow more fuel efficient vehicles to be sold...

The vehicles they are designing today will be in production in 3 or 4 years...and a hell of a lot can change in the time frame...

Our current energy policy, actually our lack of an energy policy, causes large fluctuations in the price of fuel...this leaves the manufactures out on a thin limb....

[sappstuf]

In all fairness it takes a lot of time and money to change a plant from truck production to auto production...

They plan at least a year in advance on what to produce and market...with low gas prices large vehicles and truck sales are strong...high gas prices will allow more fuel efficient vehicles to be sold...

The vehicles they are designing today will be in production in 3 or 4 years...and a hell of a lot can change in the time frame...

Our current energy policy, actually our lack of an energy policy, causes large fluctuations in the price of fuel...this leaves the manufactures out on a thin limb....

I guess my response would be that Ford seems to be doing it ok. Better than GM for sure. Although that should be expected since Ford is a better run company than GM.

The bailout won't fix mismanagment it will just prolong it.

[pphilfran]

True...

I don't like the overall trend...total sales are down since the beginning of the year..