Strength of Schedule Calculations

[Dwight]

I used the Athlon pre-season magazine to determine the SoS of every team using the standard averaging formula (add the preseason rankings of all opponents and divide by 12 [or 13, in two cases]). For FCS teams, I used a universal ranking of 121.

1.) Notre Dame 40.08
2.) Boston College 43.00
3.) Colorado 43.33
4.) Iowa State 43.33
5.) Wake Forest 43.33
6.) LSU 43.42
7.) Texas A&M 44.50
8.) USC 44.92
9.) Kansas 45.08
10.) Texas 45.17
11.) Kansas State 45.25
12.) Oklahoma 46.00
13.) Auburn 46.42
14.) Baylor 46.67
15.) Clemson 46.83
…..
24.) Oklahoma State 49.42
48.) Alabama 54.58
71.) Boise State 67.5
…..
124.) Eastern Michigan 92.17
123.) UL Lafayette 92.17
122.) Arkansas State 93.08
121.) FIU 96.83
120.) Ohio 103.08
……
Conference rankings (average):
1.) Big XII- 46.83
2.) SEC- 50.55
3.) Pac 12- 50.77
4.) ACC- 52.82
5.) Big 10- 53.58
6.) Big East- 60.9

[SoonerofAlabama]

How long did this take you?

[SoonerFaninAZ]

I don't have the magazine in front of me, but it's surprising to me that the toughest schedule in the country averages playing a 40th ranked team.

[Dwight]

How long did this take you?

About 5 hours.

[agoo758]

Appreciated dwight, it's good to see LSU playing real teams for a change.

[fadada1]

might be the only poll notre dame tops this season.

and kstate???? even the cupcakes won't play them anymore.

[SoonerofAlabama]

Some schools don't make sense. I don't see why BC is on there besides playing VT and FSU. And it seems that the Big XII schools get a big help because they all play OU, OSU, and T A&M.

[o0Dan0o]

Only reason OU doesn't top the list is because they don't have to play themselves...

On a side note, Notre Dame is only tops the list because they play OU two years in a row after this season.
Dan

[EatLeadCommie]

yeah I think you get a boost for playing BCS schools, even if the schools aren't very good. For example, Wake's OOC schedule includes games @Syracuse, vs. ND, and vs. Vandy. Three BCS schools, but they all suck. Yet their individual SOS is stronger than the usual cupcakes because they play in a BCS conference and ND plays a solid independent schedule every year, so Wake draws SOS from their higher average SOS. Wake also plays Gardner-Webb OOC.

[olevetonahill]

Why worry about it now? this **** will all change at the end of the FIRST game.;)

[Dwight]

Only reason OU doesn't top the list is because they don't have to play themselves...

On a side note, Notre Dame is only tops the list because they play OU two years in a row after this season.
Dan

This, exactly.

[TheLadiesMike]

I don't have the magazine in front of me, but it's surprising to me that the toughest schedule in the country averages playing a 40th ranked team.

Well that is like playing teams that average the top 3rd. So in the NBA/NFL/MLB that would be like playing teams that average 10th in the league.

[TheLadiesMike]

On a side note, Notre Dame is only tops the list because they play OU two years in a row after this season.
Dan

Doesn't this measure this year? :confused:

[Mad Dog Madsen]

This, exactly.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_JvC3reovpqE/SYo-Mz55jZI/AAAAAAAAAqc/PN7nrEb-mCI/s320/dwight-pervert.jpg

[o0Dan0o]

Doesn't this measure this year? :confused:

I'm mostly just making stuff up... (yes it is just talking about this season)

[SoonerNomad]

Thanks for the hard work on the analysis, and I think the opponent's record the year before or their projection for the coming year are a crucial part of the analysis, but any real strength of schedule list must take into account who you play on the road and when (after a big game or after a bye).

[fwsooner22]

Why worry about it now? this **** will all change at the end of the FIRST game.;)

^This......As usual Olevet is right !

[BermudaSooner]

Great work, although I think the averaging logic is flawed...but I don't have a great alternative. For example, which schedule do you think is hardest:

Team 1:
vs #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #115, #116, #117, #118, #119, #120

or Team 2:
vs #55, #56, #57, #58, #59, #60, #61, #62, #63, #64, #65, #66

I can argue both ways. If are asking "which schedule is more difficult to go undefeated through" then Team 1 has the more difficult schedule. If you are asking "which schedule is easier to have the better record?" then it may be Team 2 as Team 1 has 6 virtually guaranteed wins.

Not trying to beat up your analysis, particularly since I don't have a better alternative!

[MiccoMacey]

We likely will face four teams in the Top 20 (OSU, Texas, Texas A&M, and Florida State). And two of those will likely start in the Top 10.

As Bermuda stated, that makes our schedule a bit more difficult than a team that played teams #40-52.

But it offers some good talking points. Thanks for doing the math, Dwight.

[MI Sooner]

Ideally, when determining SOS, you'd alter it based on what you're trying to determine. Toughest for an elite team? Toughest for an elite team to go undefeated against?

Our SOS wasn't much tougher than Texas's in 2008, despite the fact that we played two top 15 or so teams OOC and they played no one good. If you play four average teams, your average opponent's strength is the same as playing two elite teams and two terrible teams. Clearly though, the four average teams is easier for a title contender to run. But if you're a Baylor coach on the hot seat, you probably prefer the two elite and two awful teams, since .500 gets you a bowl and probably saves your job.

[badger]

About 5 hours.

1- Purchase college football magazines at airport newsstand.
2- Have flight delayed five hours.

:D What do I win?