Regional Analysis

[IndySooner]

Here are my projections today: http://www.chasingomaha.com/projectionseoy.html

To make a long story short, I'm more confident today than I have been up to this point. I really think that Conference USA is only going to get one spot, which opens it up for BOTH OU and TCU to host. It's actually shaping up very similar to last year in which we thought we were competing against them, but instead we both hosted.

If Rice wins the series, it's for sure. If Southern Miss wins the series, it could get more sticky. Bottom line is that we're in better shape today than we were this time last week. Take care of business this weekend and we're in VERY good shape to be home for the regionals.

[IndySooner]

FWIW, neither Perfect Game (http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5667) or SE Baseball (http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1222517) has us hosting at this point.

[rysooner]

FWIW, neither Perfect Game (http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5667) or SE Baseball (http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1222517) has us hosting at this point.

I'd take the 2 seed at TCU....

[bcolston15]

If any of these clowns are close to right i'm starting to believe we won't host no matter what we do this weekend. Fresno and Fullerton will host because geographically they have to. (Blah, blah, blah) And for some reason our victories over TCU are meaningless.

So, our only hope is for TCU to slip up against New Mexico and Stetson to lose a series to Belmont.

I don't know what effect the results of the Rice-So Miss will have on our chances. It seems like So Miss is in regardless.

I think Arkansas and OU should host over TCU and one of those western schools. Look at the resumes, it's an easy pick.

[bcolston15]

ESPN has us hosting: http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/ncaa_baseball/id/6562195/leagues-chance-multiple-bids

[TopDawg]

ESPN has Dallas Baptist in our Regional. Meanies.

[TumbleweedDoom]

I still think we host if we win 2 of 3 against Baylor and then don't fall on our faces in the Big 12 Tourney.

[NMSooner'80]

And for some reason our victories over TCU are meaningless.

So, our only hope is for TCU to slip up against New Mexico and Stetson to lose a series to Belmont.


I'll see if I can heckle the Horny Toads into a loss or two this weekend. I can't go tomorrow, but I will try to catch some innings on Friday. But, I'll probably also get ejected from Isotopes Park (or as some of us call it, IsoDorks Park because of how the staff of the minor league team runs the ballpark operations - very POORLY).

That's a big reason why UNM has a project started to turn the old Lobo Field into something like OU has at Mitchell Park. There's no homefield advantage when the PCL/IsoDodger nazis won't let you practice on their sacred grass, then it's compounded by ballpark nazis who think that "ballpark security" means appeasing the visiting fans by tossing loud Lobo fans who "offend" them.

[IndySooner]

Dropped to 18th in the RPI today. We can't afford to lose 2 of 3 this weekend. Too many teams hovering around our area who could be potential hosts (add Central Florida and Stetson to that mix, though UCF probably doesn't have a good enough overall record). I'll be updating my projections today which might have us as a 2-seed currently.

[rysooner]

As much as I like hosting, I don't like the ESPN projection of us staying home and bringing Arkansas here again. I may get blasted for this, but I really think we'd have a better chance to win the regional by going to TCU as a 2 seed. I know it's hard to beat the same team 3 times in one year, but we've had TCU's number for several years and we should have a good representation of Sooner fans. The Hogs will come into Norman and take over L Dale just as they did before and we totally lose the homefield advantage.

[IndySooner]

As much as I like hosting, I don't like the ESPN projection of us staying home and bringing Arkansas here again. I may get blasted for this, but I really think we'd have a better chance to win the regional by going to TCU as a 2 seed. I know it's hard to beat the same team 3 times in one year, but we've had TCU's number for several years and we should have a good representation of Sooner fans. The Hogs will come into Norman and take over L Dale just as they did before and we totally lose the homefield advantage.

Working on mine right now and I'll have us hosting Arkansas, UCLA and Oral Roberts. Absolutely brutal!

[jadubya]

Working on mine right now and I'll have us hosting Arkansas, UCLA and Oral Roberts. Absolutely brutal!

That is the absolute worst friggin scenario. A pox on you, Indy!

[IndySooner]

Here's my regional projections today:

http://www.chasingomaha.com/projectionseoy.html

My thoughts:

We are absolutely borderline host right now. When I compared numbers and ranked "bubble host" candidates, we were actually behind Arkansas. I bumped us ahead of them because of their bad losses. When it comes down to it, you could flip a coin between us, TCU and Arkansas. I also have a feeling we'll be adding the loser of the Southern Miss/Rice series to that discussion after this weekend, but for now, both of them are ahead of us.

Even worse is that whether we host or not, it looks like we'll draw Arkansas. Every time I look at it, it's the match-up that makes the most sense. We could possibly go to TCU if they hosted, but really nowhere else would make sense assuming either we or Arkansas are hosting.

In this projection, we were the lucky team to draw UCLA. YEAH! Of course, that could mean we draw Cole who has been VERY hittable this year.

Anyway, I'm updating every day this weekend, so I'll keep an eye on it. Our RPI dropping isn't helping, but a win tonight should solve that since Baylor's up to 33rd in the RPI.

[OUmillenium]

"A pox on you"...that's hilarious!

[IndySooner]

That is the absolute worst friggin scenario. A pox on you, Indy!

Tell me about it. Don't shoot the messenger!

[bcolston15]

I'm not sure why everyone is so afraid of Arkansas, this isn't 2009 and this time they'll have the same bats we do. (Wink, wink)

They have one legitimate starting pitcher (Baxendale), who they'd have to use in the 2-3 matchup.

On the other hand, if went to TCU we'd have to use Rocha in the 2-3 game while the Frogs save either Purke or Winkler for us. Not a good setup.

[NMSooner'80]

:( :( FINAL from Albuquerque: TCU 9, Lobos 0. Winkler must have toyed with UNM today (I couldn't go because it was a day game).

[rysooner]

Is Purke back, or will he be back by that time?

[bcolston15]

Is Purke back, or will he be back by that time?

He pitched the first three innings and Winkler went the next 3 or 4.

[IndySooner]

To be blunt, I don't think we're hosting anymore. We dropped to 20th in the RPI overnight. TCU is 14th. Southern Miss 15th. Stetson and Fresno State both ahead of us and Fresno will be put in for regional purposes. The good news is that we'll probably go to TCU. I am working on my updates, but it's not good for us. I don't know if winning the next two will even do it.

[TumbleweedDoom]

Indy, you need to relax and quit looking at the RPI everyday. Alll that's good for is to get your blood pressure up, especially with so few games completed last night because of the rain. Doing a regional projection update every day is also a fool's errand. Wait until the weekend is up and THEN do it. This isn't college football where every game is of nth importance -- you have to look at it after every weekend. I never look at the RPI until the day before a series starts and the day after.

[IndySooner]

Now that I'm finished with the analysis, Weed's right. It's not as bad as I reacted.

We can easily steal a spot from either TCU or Southern Miss. We do need to win, though. And, if the season ended today, I don't think we'd be hosting.

And the reason I'm looking at it daily is that I am doing daily bracket updates for my site at this point of the season.

[IndySooner]

Here is my updated version: http://www.chasingomaha.com/projectionseoy.html

[TopDawg]

Keep on doin what you're doin Indy (as long as you like it).

I mean, TWD is right...


Doing a regional projection update every day is also a fool's errand.

...but so is posting most of what goes on a message board, yet we all find time to do that.

[bcolston15]

I hope like heck we host, but honestly, we don't deserve to. Take away our 16-0 start and we're 19-14 against D-1 teams. We haven't won a series away from home all season.

Now, i'm happy to be disappointed with a 37-14 record, that speaks to the growth of the program, but I just don't have the feeling this team is going anywhere, at least not relative to where we wanted to go back in Februrary.

All that said, we have the pieces to make another special run if we find the magic again.

[NMSooner'80]

Horny Toads are serious again today in Albuquerque. It's 13-7, and it's only the top of the fifth. They're just killing whoever the Lobos trot out to the mound so far. :mad: