Indy, we need an RPI update.

[bcolston15]

Please and thank you.

[IndySooner]

Okay, here it goes!

We're sitting at 17 today which may or may not be good enough. Arkansas and Rice are ahead of us at this point and A&M has essentially locked up a host spot at this point. A couple of interesting developments: Southern Miss losing to Houston last night helped us and I'm not sure that both Rice and Southern Miss (who both lost yesterday) will host after next week's series. I think that was huge for us.

Arkansas is in really good shape at #12 and we really need them to lose today. If they win and have back to back weekend wins over Florida and South Carolina, I think they're secure in a host spot.

Somehow, TCU keeps hanging around. They're 19th today and with their lofty ranking, they might be a player. I think all things equal, though, we will have a better RPI and 2-0 head to head against them and will be okay.

OSU is done.

Bottom line is it comes down to us, Arkansas & Rice with Southern Miss and Stetson both being about one loss away from our region being able to steal a spot away from them. The best news is that Stanford has collapsed this weekend and there's pretty much no chance that the west steals one from our region.

So, best case scenario would be for either Southern Miss or Rice (or both) to lose today, Stetson to lose today, TCU to lose today and Arkansas to lose today along with us taking care of business.

I'm not 100% sure we control our own destiny at this point so scoreboard watching will be necessary from here on out. The best news for us is that Baylor's RPI is in the 40's now and we'll be playing a better team next week than TCU and Arkansas.

[bcolston15]

Up to the minute as of today: Southern Miss, Arkansas and OSU lost the final game of their series and 2 of 3 on the weekend. OSU has to be eliminated from hosting contention at this point.

Rice scored three in the ninth to win 7-6 over Memphis.

[bcolston15]

Up to 14 in the RPI after today's win. That's ahead of Southern Miss, Stetson, and TCU.

I really think 2 of 3 next weekend keeps us in Norman for the regionals. Anything less and it's a crapshoot.

[IndySooner]

Up to 14 in the RPI after today's win. That's ahead of Southern Miss, Stetson, and TCU.

I really think 2 of 3 next weekend keeps us in Norman for the regionals. Anything less and it's a crapshoot.

Agreed. I assume you're using Warren Nolan's RPI. His is off just a tad. I'll be interested to see where Boyd has us in the morning.

[IndySooner]

Nolan's RPI was off on us by 3 spots. We're actually in pretty bad shape as far as RPI goes. (http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html)

TCU, Southern Miss, Rice & Arkansas are all ahead of us now in the RPI. Not sure how TCU jumped us after winning 2 of 3, but they did. Utah's RPI was only right around 100. The good news is they have the New Mexico team that we beat this weekend. Any loss there and they'll drop like a rock. Any win and they obviously won't get a bump.

More good news is that Baylor's now in the mid-30's for RPI. We will get a good bump for beating them.

Southern Miss and Rice are 16 and 12 respectively and play each other this weekend. Winner of the series probably hosts for sure. Loser, in my opinion, doesn't, though that's not a given since Rice won yesterday and their RPI held.

Arkansas plays Mississippi whose RPI is in the low 30's. Pretty much can't jump Arkansas at this point, but our overall resume is better than theirs. I think we are ahead of them to stay if we win this weekend.

Bottom line: We win 2 of 3 this weekend, we'll move ahead of the Southern Miss/Rice loser and we'll move ahead of TCU and our resume will be better than Arkansas. I think we host if we win 2 of 3 this weekend.

[IndySooner]

One thing I missed today: Fresno State is up to 19th in today's RPI. The west might be in position to steal one of the available host spots, which could be detrimental to our cause. Of course, that could just mean they take either Clemson's or Southern Miss's.

Also, note that ASU's hearing is today, two days earlier than previously thought. Is the NCAA fast-tracking things? I've heard it's possible. If ASU is out, that opens up another spot.

[bcolston15]

The Big 12 is rated third in conference RPI. The two conferences rated ahead of the Big 12 are the SEC and ACC. Which, between them, will take up nine host spots.

If we finish third place in the Big 12 we will host. Period. I think winning 2 of 3 will secure us a host spot, even if OSU sweeps Tech and jumps us in the standings. But, I think all we need to do is match OSU's weekend. (Which I think will be easy because I think they win 1 of 3) Hold third place and we'll be in. Getting swept is the only scenario I see that knocks us out.

It's still worthwhile to scoreboard watch, but I really think we hold our own fate now.

And from the 'It isn't going to happen but it would be awesome if it did' category, if A&M sweeps Texas and we sweep Baylor, we finish second.

[IndySooner]

Polls are interesting today. We moved up in the three that have been released, all the way up to #8 in the coaches' poll. 13th in the Baseball America poll and 12th in Collegiate Baseball.

I'm growing more confident that we'll be hosting as long as we win 2 of 3. I don't think we can feel safe if we don't win 2 of 3, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. We're in really good shape right now. Thing is, though, TCU is in exactly the same position we are, so that's why I'm not 100% confident, especially because the committee could take into account that they were missing Purke for a good portion of the season and he'll be back.

[bcolston15]

That's true about TCU. But it doesn't change the fact our resume trumps theirs. Hard to debate that.

Just because i'm a visual person, here are the 16 hosts as of today. Do you agree, Indy:

Florida
Virginia
Vanderbilt
North Carolina
South Carolina
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Texas
Texas A&M
Oregon St.
Arkansas
Southern Miss
Oklahoma
Arizona St.
Clemson
Stetson

[IndySooner]

That's true about TCU. But it doesn't change the fact our resume trumps theirs. Hard to debate that.

Just because i'm a visual person, here are the 16 hosts as of today. Do you agree, Indy:

Florida
Virginia
Vanderbilt
North Carolina
South Carolina
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Texas
Texas A&M
Oregon St.
Arkansas
Southern Miss
Oklahoma
Arizona St.
Rice
Stetson

I haven't dissected it yet, will on Wednesday, but I know I won't have Stetson hosting. I would also leave Arkansas out, based on their bad losses. I would have Fullerton and probably Fresno State in for those two, and I think TCU will host over EITHER Rice or Southern Miss. I also think there's a decent chance that Clemson hosts as an extremely hot team with a very good RPI. That could cost either OU or TCU a spot.

[bcolston15]

Fresno only has 4 top 50 wins. That's why I left them out. But geographically I guess they could host.

Fullerton is 6-8 against the top 50. Maybe, one of the two will host, no way they both will.

I like our numbers. 10 top 50 wins, 9-1 in our last 10, a SOS of 47 and we have no bad losses. (20-1 against teams rated 100 or lower in the RPI)

[IndySooner]

I think if Fresno and Fullerton are in the RPI top-20, they will both host, because of geography. Neither has great resumes, but they need at least one more, if not two, hosts out west.

I agree that our resume is pretty good. I said to some people this weekend that we're too close to our own situation and so we under-value what we've done. I think we're a host. I'm just not 100% confident.