IndySooner
5/12/2011, 09:46 AM
I don't go into these as deep on my site, yet, but I will here really quick. Most projections don't have us hosting, but I tend to disagree RIGHT NOW. Here are mine: http://www.chasingomaha.com/projections8.html.
Here's the thing, we're battling Texas A&M (yes, they're in a battle now), Rice, Arkansas and TCU for two, and possibly three, spots. Texas A&M has a lock on one of those unless they fall on their faces (see: swept by Texas and another loss, or any combination of 4-5 losses). That leaves one or two spots for the four teams. I think OSU's loss last night was the dagger in their hopes.
Rice's RPI has jumped. They're probably in the #2 spot as of today. They have Southern Miss next weekend, and a Southern Miss sweep would be VERY beneficial to us, but we can't have Rice win that series and expect to be ahead of them. Their resume is very similar to ours.
We're probably next in line, with a very solid resume, but nothing that really jumps out as "they must host!". That said, we're higher ranked in all of the polls than the others, which will account for something because that's the national perception. If we've seen anything over the years, that perception is taken into account in this deal. I think we're ahead of Arkansas, and may be ahead of Rice, because of that.
TCU will benefit from that same perception, though, which could make them a player here. That said, they're last in the RPI, and when you look at their schedule & wins, plus losing 2 of 2 to us, I think we're ahead of TCU unless we falter. They don't have anyone left to bolster their resume.
Arkansas could move ahead of us with a series win in Columbia. They win this series and they're hosting, without a question. Back-to-back series wins over Florida and South Carolina would be enough. Their resume isn't as solid across the board (some bad losses, etc.) but they would be hot at the right time.
The best thing that happened for us is Stetson losing last night. They dropped like a rock in the RPI, and they really need to go without more than a loss for the rest of the year to host, in my opinion. They will battle the same perception issues that we will benefit from.
Because of the Stetson loss, I have us hosting today. Without it, it would have been a toss-up between us and Rice, and Rice probably would have won the coin flip.
We have no room for error. Anything less than 3-1 this weekend and 2-1 next weekend and we're going on the road, in my opinion. 4-0 and 3-0 and we're pretty much a lock to host, in my opinion, unless Arkansas AND Rice pull off massive runs. Even with that, we could pass someone like Southern Miss.
Here's the thing, we're battling Texas A&M (yes, they're in a battle now), Rice, Arkansas and TCU for two, and possibly three, spots. Texas A&M has a lock on one of those unless they fall on their faces (see: swept by Texas and another loss, or any combination of 4-5 losses). That leaves one or two spots for the four teams. I think OSU's loss last night was the dagger in their hopes.
Rice's RPI has jumped. They're probably in the #2 spot as of today. They have Southern Miss next weekend, and a Southern Miss sweep would be VERY beneficial to us, but we can't have Rice win that series and expect to be ahead of them. Their resume is very similar to ours.
We're probably next in line, with a very solid resume, but nothing that really jumps out as "they must host!". That said, we're higher ranked in all of the polls than the others, which will account for something because that's the national perception. If we've seen anything over the years, that perception is taken into account in this deal. I think we're ahead of Arkansas, and may be ahead of Rice, because of that.
TCU will benefit from that same perception, though, which could make them a player here. That said, they're last in the RPI, and when you look at their schedule & wins, plus losing 2 of 2 to us, I think we're ahead of TCU unless we falter. They don't have anyone left to bolster their resume.
Arkansas could move ahead of us with a series win in Columbia. They win this series and they're hosting, without a question. Back-to-back series wins over Florida and South Carolina would be enough. Their resume isn't as solid across the board (some bad losses, etc.) but they would be hot at the right time.
The best thing that happened for us is Stetson losing last night. They dropped like a rock in the RPI, and they really need to go without more than a loss for the rest of the year to host, in my opinion. They will battle the same perception issues that we will benefit from.
Because of the Stetson loss, I have us hosting today. Without it, it would have been a toss-up between us and Rice, and Rice probably would have won the coin flip.
We have no room for error. Anything less than 3-1 this weekend and 2-1 next weekend and we're going on the road, in my opinion. 4-0 and 3-0 and we're pretty much a lock to host, in my opinion, unless Arkansas AND Rice pull off massive runs. Even with that, we could pass someone like Southern Miss.