SoonerofAlabama
5/10/2011, 09:03 PM
http://http://www.tulsaworld.com/blogs/sportspost.aspx?/Oklahoma_Sooners_home_winning_streak_and_referee_b ias/26-11377
I’m working through the great book “Scorecasting,” by SI’s L. Jon Wertheim and economist Tobias J. Moskowitz. The book uses statistics to turn sports theories on their heads. Think of it as “Freakonomics” on artificial turf.
A few chapters deal with the home field advantage. The book’s explanation goes something like this:
Home teams win more often (in every sport) than road teams not because of travel problems, differences in stadiums or ball parks, crowd noise or anything else. Home teams win more because referees are biased toward the home team.
Referees are more likely to make calls that favor the home team during crucial situations. Would you want to tick off 100,000 fans at the Big House in Michigan? Me neither. That psychology trickles into their officiating.
"Could referee bias explain a large part of the home field advantage in football?” they write. “Absolutely."
But can referee bias explain Oklahoma’s 36-game winning streak at Owen Field?
Wertheim and Moskowitz use a couple football examples to support their argument: There are more penalties against the visitors, and more fumbles recovered by the home team. Both of those can be easily influenced by a referee. Ever see a questionable holding call (or no-call)? How about a fight for a fumble that ends in one player coming up with the ball but the other team gaining possession?
Their theory makes sense, and they have the numbers to back it up.
But it’s not present in Norman.
The Sooners were penalized an average of 6.4 times for 56 yards per game during their home winning streak.* Their opponents: 7.2 times for 54 yards.
Let’s compare those numbers to the road since OU last lost at home (September 2005 vs TCU):
OU: 6.7 penalties for 57 yards
Opponents: 7.2 times for 59 yards
* I took out weak non-conference foes – the Middle Tennessees and North Texases – because officiating wouldn’t make a difference in those blowouts.
That means the Sooners had an advantage of two penalty yards on the road but a disadvantage of two penalty yards at home. No officiating edge there.
How about close games decided by 14 points or less?
“Scorecasting” argues that officials are most biased in high-pressure situations. They’re more likely to make a bad call in favor of the home team on, say, fourth-and-3 with two minutes left than they are on third-and-10 in the first quarter.
The numbers:
In Norman:
OU: 5.9 penalties, 47.7 yards per game
Opponent: 7.2 penalties, 50.8 yards per game
Sure looks like there’s an advantage, right? But let’s look at the stats for OU’s close games on the road:
OU: 6.2 penalties, 53.5 yards per game
Opponent: 7.5 penalties, 62.6 yards per game
The difference in penalties is the same, home or away, in OU’s close games - the Sooners are called for about 1.3 fewer penalties per game than their opponent. But they actually have a larger advantage in penalty yards away from Owen Field than they do at it.
What about fumble recoveries?
The numbers:
In Norman:
OU: 14 fumbles, 7 lost
Opponents: 14 fumbles, 7 lost
On the road:
OU: 24 fumbles, 9 lost
Opponents: 18 fumbles, 10 lost
Again, no sign of officiating bias. OU lost a larger percentage of fumbles at home than it did on the road. The Sooners actually had more of a fumble-recovery advantage on the road than it did at home.
So what does this all mean?
This fall, when reporters inevitably ask Bob Stoops why his team dominates at home but struggles at times on the road, he won’t be able to point to an officiating bias as the reason why.
--Matt Baker
Like it. Proves that we don't have referees that play favorites. We are a quality team that doesn't need to cheat to get ahead.
I’m working through the great book “Scorecasting,” by SI’s L. Jon Wertheim and economist Tobias J. Moskowitz. The book uses statistics to turn sports theories on their heads. Think of it as “Freakonomics” on artificial turf.
A few chapters deal with the home field advantage. The book’s explanation goes something like this:
Home teams win more often (in every sport) than road teams not because of travel problems, differences in stadiums or ball parks, crowd noise or anything else. Home teams win more because referees are biased toward the home team.
Referees are more likely to make calls that favor the home team during crucial situations. Would you want to tick off 100,000 fans at the Big House in Michigan? Me neither. That psychology trickles into their officiating.
"Could referee bias explain a large part of the home field advantage in football?” they write. “Absolutely."
But can referee bias explain Oklahoma’s 36-game winning streak at Owen Field?
Wertheim and Moskowitz use a couple football examples to support their argument: There are more penalties against the visitors, and more fumbles recovered by the home team. Both of those can be easily influenced by a referee. Ever see a questionable holding call (or no-call)? How about a fight for a fumble that ends in one player coming up with the ball but the other team gaining possession?
Their theory makes sense, and they have the numbers to back it up.
But it’s not present in Norman.
The Sooners were penalized an average of 6.4 times for 56 yards per game during their home winning streak.* Their opponents: 7.2 times for 54 yards.
Let’s compare those numbers to the road since OU last lost at home (September 2005 vs TCU):
OU: 6.7 penalties for 57 yards
Opponents: 7.2 times for 59 yards
* I took out weak non-conference foes – the Middle Tennessees and North Texases – because officiating wouldn’t make a difference in those blowouts.
That means the Sooners had an advantage of two penalty yards on the road but a disadvantage of two penalty yards at home. No officiating edge there.
How about close games decided by 14 points or less?
“Scorecasting” argues that officials are most biased in high-pressure situations. They’re more likely to make a bad call in favor of the home team on, say, fourth-and-3 with two minutes left than they are on third-and-10 in the first quarter.
The numbers:
In Norman:
OU: 5.9 penalties, 47.7 yards per game
Opponent: 7.2 penalties, 50.8 yards per game
Sure looks like there’s an advantage, right? But let’s look at the stats for OU’s close games on the road:
OU: 6.2 penalties, 53.5 yards per game
Opponent: 7.5 penalties, 62.6 yards per game
The difference in penalties is the same, home or away, in OU’s close games - the Sooners are called for about 1.3 fewer penalties per game than their opponent. But they actually have a larger advantage in penalty yards away from Owen Field than they do at it.
What about fumble recoveries?
The numbers:
In Norman:
OU: 14 fumbles, 7 lost
Opponents: 14 fumbles, 7 lost
On the road:
OU: 24 fumbles, 9 lost
Opponents: 18 fumbles, 10 lost
Again, no sign of officiating bias. OU lost a larger percentage of fumbles at home than it did on the road. The Sooners actually had more of a fumble-recovery advantage on the road than it did at home.
So what does this all mean?
This fall, when reporters inevitably ask Bob Stoops why his team dominates at home but struggles at times on the road, he won’t be able to point to an officiating bias as the reason why.
--Matt Baker
Like it. Proves that we don't have referees that play favorites. We are a quality team that doesn't need to cheat to get ahead.