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TIMB0B
5/9/2011, 10:43 AM
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/juan-williams/159863-ron-paul-driving-the-republican-campaign

By Juan Williams - 05/09/11 06:11 AM ET

Here’s a news bulletin — it is becoming increasingly clear that we are living in a time when Republican politics are being shaped by a 75-year-old, 12-term Texas congressman with a son in the Senate. And incredibly, it is no longer out of the realm of possibility that this outcast of the GOP establishment may win the party’s presidential nomination.

If you have not been paying attention, it is time to look around and realize that we are living in the political age of Rep. Ron Paul.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll released late last week shows Paul faring the best against President Obama of any potential Republican candidate. He trails the president by only 7 points, 52-45 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee trails by 8 points, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney down 11 points to Obama.

In February, Paul won the presidential straw poll at the Conservative Action Conference for the second straight year.

Last Thursday, the day of the first GOP debate, one of Paul’s fabulously-labeled “money bombs” exploded with the announcement of $1 million in contributions for the Paul campaign.


The Tea Party, which drove the GOP to claim a majority of the House in the mid-term elections, grew largely out of the ashes of his 2008 presidential campaign, which emphasized limited government and a return to constitutional principles. Since then, the Tea Party has bullied the Republican leadership in the House to force budget cuts at the risk of shutting down the government and collectively become the most persistent critic of the Obama presidency on financial regulatory reform and health care.

The roots of all of this are in the libertarian mind of Rep. Paul.

At last week’s debate, put on by my other employer, Fox News Channel, I was struck by the libertarian flair the iconoclast injected into the evening. First, his presence along with another libertarian Republican — former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson — allowed for Republicans nationwide to witness a debate in which strong arguments for immediate U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan came from the right. But that was just the start. There are instances where Paul’s views make the Republican establishment want to scream.

For example, I asked him about his stated concern that Israel will launch a unilateral military strike against Iran. He replied that Israel had become too dependent on U.S. military and foreign aid and that it should be responsible for its own security and sovereignty. In the past he has blasted the “neoconservatives” and their influence on U.S. foreign policy.

He has been adamantly opposed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan since the beginning and has called for an immediate pullout of all U.S. troops. He rails against the American “empire” and argues that U.S. spending on a global military presence should be cut.

Paul’s thinking is also having an impact on conservative views about domestic policy.

Even when he called for legalization of marijuana, cocaine and heroin at the debate it did not elicit hooting but cheers from South Carolina’s famously right-wing Republicans.

Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, was elected as a senator from Kentucky in 2010 with 55 percent of the vote. Paul is a chip off the old block — espousing many of the same libertarian views as his father. Because of this, he has become one of the most distinctive nominations.

It was almost exactly four years ago when Ron Paul sparred with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a 2008 Republican presidential primary debate. Paul said about the role of U.S. policy in bringing about the 9/11 attacks: “They attack us because we’ve been over there, we’ve been bombing Iraq for 10 years. We’ve been in the Middle East. I think Reagan was right. We don’t understand the irrationality of Middle Eastern politics.”

Giuliani shot back: “That’s an extraordinary statement of someone who lived through the attack of Sept. 11, that we invited the attack because we were attacking Iraq. I would ask the congressman to withdraw that comment and tell us that he didn’t really mean that.”

Who could have guessed that, four years later, Giuliani would be off the stage while the persistent Paul is growing, exhibiting more and more power in Republican politics, shaping the GOP debates and in the absence of any strong establishment candidate, looking like a strong contender for the party’s 2012 nomination?


Juan Williams is an author and political analyst for Fox News Channel.

TIMB0B
5/9/2011, 12:21 PM
http://freeindependentsun.com/republic/obama-v-paul-why-ron-paul-is-the-republicans-top-prospect-for-winning-the-presidency-in-2012/

A recent CNN Poll, showing Ron Paul as the top Republican Contender to President Obama, has been boosting excitement amongst Paul’s supporters this last week. However, this trend actually started back in early 2010 when a Rasmussen Poll put Obama and Paul at a statistic dead-heat for the 2012 General Election.

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So, Why Does Ron Paul Have the Best Chance to Defeat President Obama?

Statistics

Pollster Date Obama (D) Paul (R) Rank in Poll*
Rasm 04/14/10 42 41 1st
PPP 02/16/11 48 39 3rd
CNN 05/05/11 52 45 1st
*Based on Point Difference Out of the Republican Candidates Polled Against President Obama

It is important to keep in mind that Polls usually have a wide margin of error, and do not reflect future realities. These numbers could go in either direction once Ron Paul gains the Republican Nomination. However, by looking at these polls, we can see that Ron Paul has the best chance of beating Obama out of any other Republican Candidate if the Election was held today.


Favorable vs. Unfavorable Opinions

Out of the 6 Candidates Polled in the PPP Poll potential candidates Trump, Palin, and Gingrich all carry a 50+% Unfavorable view amongst registered voters. That means that the majority of voters are unlikely to vote for them. These candidates may do well amongst Republicans, but their unfavorable rating amongst the general public may make it difficult for them to win the General Election. While Paul’s unfavorable rating is near that of Romney, those that are undecided on Paul make 31% of those that are polled, showing that Paul’s recognition amongst voters is one of his biggest obstacles.

This further study by the PPP shows the decline in favorability of the 4 GOP Front-runners (Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, and Palin) over the last few years. Read the Article Here

Youth Vote

Out of the Republican Candidates Polled in the PPP Poll, Huckabee and Paul draw the most support from voters 18-29. Likewise, Rep. Paul continues to receive large crowds of enthusiastic students whenever he speaks on Campuses throughout the country.

Even back in 2008, a MySpace Primary Poll showed both Obama and Paul winning their respective contests. The article refers to a similar Facebook Poll that showed similar results.

Strong With Christians

Again, showing that Paul’s low recognition (and the high percentage of “unsure” voters) is one of the candidates biggest hurdles, this Barma study shows that amongst Christian voters, Paul comes in right behind the major front-runners (Palin, Gingrich, Romney and Huckabee), and amongst Independent Christian Voters, comes in second behind former Gov. Romney.

Paul has the ability to maintain the Republican Parties’ Christian Base, and open his Campaign to other Religions, for example, Rep. Paul was a strong supporter of the “Ground Zero Mosque” be given the same Rights and Liberties as would a Christian Religious Center.

Taking a more reasonable approach to social conservatism, by promoting Liberty and the Bill of Rights to secure freedoms such as expression of religion and individual equality under the law, Paul can maintain both religious conservatives while opening the door to pro-gay marriage, anti-drug war and other social issues that may seem “progressive” or “liberal.”

@ 10:15 Paul related Religious Freedom to the War on Drugs

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New Voters, Independents and Democrats

Mostly backed by anecdotal evidence, my personal observations and reading have shown that a decent amount of Ron Paul’s support in 2008 came from people who had never voted until hearing Ron Paul’s message. This is very similar to President Obama’s support, which brought in many who had previous been disenfranchised by American Politics. Likewise, as I personally was a Registered Democrat from 2004, many people switched Party Registration in order to support Rep. Paul in the 2008 Republican Primary. This trend would be even more significant in a General Election, where Independents, Democrats, Libertarians and even Greens may give their Vote to Ron Paul; especially when it does not require changing Political Affiliation.

Obama’s Base

President Obama won an election on rhetoric promoting withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, an end to Government Secrecy, Sensible Drug Laws, and a reign in on Corporate Welfare. The last two years have proved this to be just that, rhetoric. Rep. Paul has a proven voting record of supporting these issues, and, despite this recent PPP Poll showing that Paul has little support from 2008 Obama Voters, in a head-to-head competition with President Obama he may be able to win over some of those Votes. No other Republican Candidate would have this ability. This, again, is based on anecdotal evidence, however, similar to the last point, if you go to the “streets” and talk to people about this issue, you will find that what people say reflect these statements more so than they reflect the PPP Poll.

Okay, so he has the Best Chance, but he is Still Behind in the Polls

So true. So what do we do? Well, let’s look at his biggest weaknesses in the PPP Poll:

Latino/Hispanic Voters

In 2008 Latino and Hispanic Voters made a huge shift from voting for the more conservative candidate to supporting Sen. Obama. Rep. Paul would have to make a concerted effort to win back these votes. How would that be possible, especially with his immigration Policies being shown as strict and conservative? I think there are two things that a Ron Paul campaign can do to improve this.

The War on Drugs: Frame the debate over the Drug War as not just a National Issue, but a Regional Issue. Commit to reducing the violence associated with the War on Drugs, and thus, reducing the violence on the border, and within the borders, of Mexico and Central/South American Countries.
Matthew Gonzalez as Running Mate: Once securing the Nomination, I’d personally recommend Matt Gonzalez as a running mate for Rep. Paul. A strong Independent-Progressive from California, Matt was Ralph Nader’s running mate in 2008 and has since supported the likes of John Dennis (R) in San Francisco and has even spoken with Dr. Paul during a Anti-War rally in the Northern California City. This would not only help settle worries from potential progressive voters, but would also give Latin-Americans a prominent voice in National Politics.

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Black/African-American Voters

None of the current Republican Candidates can say they fair very well within the Black and African-American Communities of the Country. With President Obama making history as the first Black President of the United States, this may remain an elusive voting block to capture. However, I think Dr. Paul has two clear policy positions that could potentially win over a number of African-American Voters.

The Death Penalty: Despite both President Obama and Attorney General Holder commenting in the past about the predominant racist outcomes of Capital Punishment Trials (with Blacks and Latinos having a overwhelmingly larger chance of being convicted and executed than Whites tried for similar crimes), neither has done a single thing at ending this abused practice. Ron Paul, known for being incredibly consistent in his views, has said time-and-time again, that on the issue of the Death Penalty, which he once supported, that his observations of the gross, racist, abuses of this punishment has forced him, as a conscious human-being, to oppose any further use of Capital Punishment in the United States. In doing so, Rep. Paul may have a chance at resonating with African-American voters. Related Studies: http://www.amnestyusa.org – http://www.nytimes.com – http://www.aclu.org
The War on Drugs: Again, Paul differs himself from Obama in his strong opposition to the War on Drugs. Paul has even recently stated that he would pardon all non-violent drug offenders that are currently in prison if he were elected President. Currently, Blacks (and Hispanics) make up a hugely disproportionate percentage of Prisoners in America. Blacks (and Hispanics) are far more likely to be convicted of a drug charge than Whites, which, similar to the Death Penalty, shows how racists are able to use these policies to legally punish those they hate and deem inferior. THIS MUST STOP! And President Obama has shown little interest in making that happen. Related Articles: 1 – 2

At 9:30 into video talks about Pardoning Non-Violent Drug Offenders

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Women and Voters Aged 30 and Above

Aside from low support from Hispanic and Black Voters, Paul’s next weaknesses remain in Female Voters and Older Voters. What can be done about this? I’m not sure. Paul’s religious objection to Abortion may be too much to overcome, even if coupled with a “libertarian” stance that would put the decision power into the hands of the states. And his support amongst older voters may be challenged by his view of phasing out Social Security and Medicare, despite Paul’s repeated assertion that those already in the system would not be left out of their benefits, and that even voluntary programs would be acceptable alternatives to a mandatory system.

The point of this article should be to show that, while Paul is the strongest of the current (and potential) Republican Candidates, he will still need to work toward winning the Presidency in 2012. However, I think a strong campaign focused on the issues and continued enthusiasm from Paul’s supporters, can easily overcome these hurdles. Communication is key, and right now, Ron Paul looks like the best candidate for the job.

delhalew
5/9/2011, 12:22 PM
Much better chance in the general election than an establishment Republican. If he can make it there.

bigfatjerk
5/9/2011, 01:02 PM
I think Paul is a guy that is really been hitting the youth circuit the last 8 years or so and that is really fueling him now and just making him stronger. His following in the college age and a little older is really what is making him a game changer. Is it enough to win Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia? I'm not sure right now.

BTW there's a rumor that one of his other sons is running for a Senate seat in Texas.