Various Regional Projections: [Archive] - SoonerFans.com Message Boards

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 11:56 AM

There are always questions about whether we have a chance to host or not, here are some projections (ours first, of course!):

http://www.chasingomaha.com/projections7.html
http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/ncaa_baseball/id/6477911/few-changes-top-latest-projections
http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2011/05/04/2011-ncaa-baseball-regional-projections-may-4th/
http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1218021

That's what I can find so far. Essentially, we're on the "bubble" to host. I think we'll be in good shape as long as we win our remaining series.

That said, according to Boyd's World (www.boydsworld.com) we have to go 11-0 to be top-16 in the RPI. I think if we're in the top-20 of the RPI (probably have to go 9-2 or 8-3) then we are a solid host, but it won't be easy for sure, especially ending the year at Baylor. We may be relying on the Big 12 Tourney to earn a host bid.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 12:32 PM

Judging by Kendall's latest tweet, Perfect Game won't have us as a host either. No surprise there, he's never OU friendly (didn't have OU as a host last year until the last week or two):

Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogersPG Kendall Rogers
#Rice got our last NCAA Regional host. #Oklahoma #OklahomaState and #TCU were in the mix. Needed a Southwest host spot. Tough choice. #Owls

bcolston15

5/4/2011, 01:01 PM

Any projection that has TCU ahead of us is ridiculous.

It'll be interesting to see how the OSU-TCU series in Stillwater goes this weekend. I'm thinking the winner of the series moves into host position. Personally, i'm rooting for TCU. This is OSU's last chance to boost their 'numbers', if they lose the series, they won't host. Their record against the top 50 and top 100 sucks.

Truth is, our fate is in our hands. We don't have a tough schedule down the stretch. None of the teams (KU, UNM, UALR, BU) will make the NCAA's. If we can't win at least eight or nine of the 11 games we don't deserve to host.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 01:11 PM

Any projection that has TCU ahead of us is ridiculous.

Agreed 100%

It'll be interesting to see how the OSU-TCU series in Stillwater goes this weekend. I'm thinking the winner of the series moves into host position. Personally, i'm rooting for TCU. This is OSU's last chance to boost their 'numbers', if they lose the series, they won't host. Their record against the top 50 and top 100 sucks.

I'll be surprised if OSU doesn't win the series. They're better than TCU this year. That said, you're right that the loser is 100% out of the hosting picture.

Truth is, our fate is in our hands. We don't have a tough schedule down the stretch. None of the teams (KU, UNM, UALR, BU) will make the NCAA's. If we can't win at least eight or nine of the 11 games we don't deserve to host.

Fate is in our hands for sure. We have ZERO room for error. Too many teams nipping at our heels right now. Also, if we don't host, we'll either go to Fayetteville or get shipped out east, in my opinion. There aren't enough host teams out west to send us out there.

Let me also add that anyone who is considering Rice as a potential host isn't paying attention.

bcolston15

5/4/2011, 01:16 PM

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 01:25 PM

I'm undecided on whether I like TCU or OSU better. OSU swings it better, but TCU's weekend rotation is nasty.

I think I'll side with the better pitching staff and pick the Frogs to win two of three this weekend.

They've got really good pitching, but it's certainly not unbeatable without Purke. It will be interesting for sure.

TumbleweedDoom

5/4/2011, 01:28 PM

Boyd's has us at 17 today -- we just passed A&M, which has been dropping like a stone.

I wouldn't pay attention to those RPI-needs posts you may see on Boyds and elsewhere -- they are so flawed that they're funny. I mean the general formula is correct behind them, but the assummation is highly problematic: it's assuming that every team with a better RPI will win EVERY SINGLE TIME against the lower RPI team, except for the particular team you're studying.

We need to go 4-0 this week, but even if we go 3-1 (two of three against KU), we're going to stay in the hosting mix. The final series against Baylor and the Big 12 Tourney will be the deciding points.

Sooner11JK

5/4/2011, 01:34 PM

My tweet to Kendall:

@KendallRogersPG Rice 2-2 against TAMCC & UAB. OU 2-2 against TCU & UT. You promote Rice to host. Demote OU. I don't get it.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 01:34 PM

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 01:35 PM

My tweet to Kendall:

@KendallRogersPG Rice 2-2 against TAMCC & UAB. OU 2-2 against TCU & UT. You promote Rice to host. Demote OU. I don't get it.

Someone asked him in his chat the other day how OU went 2-2 against TCU and UT and Southern Miss went 2-2 against East Carolina and Alabama and Southern Miss jumped 5 spots and OU dropped three.

bcolston15

5/4/2011, 01:40 PM

I know it won't come down to just one game, but the Sunday game of the OSU series still bothers the heck out of me. That's the only reason anyone anywhere could have them hosting ahead of us.

Sooner11JK

5/4/2011, 01:53 PM

Someone asked him in his chat the other day how OU went 2-2 against TCU and UT and Southern Miss went 2-2 against East Carolina and Alabama and Southern Miss jumped 5 spots and OU dropped three.

Did he give an answer?

He probably just danced around it.

It would be bad for business for him to admit that he just doesn't like OU.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 01:59 PM

Did he give an answer?

He probably just danced around it.

It would be bad for business for him to admit that he just doesn't like OU.

He said something to the effect of "Easy answer. I look at weekend games 80% and weekday games 20% and I wasn't impressed with OU this weekend in Austin."

TumbleweedDoom

5/4/2011, 02:23 PM

Kendall's eyes are his best and worst asset. On one hand, it's good to have a guy actually going around seeing these teams with his own eyes, first-hand, and writing about them.

On the other hand, the selection committee most likely hasn't seen ANY of these teams play very much at all and, therefore, will make their decisions based on the numbers in front of them.

Normally, I would lean toward the person who has actually SEEN the teams play, but in college baseball, I don't go with that: there's FAR, FAR too many games to play and even if you catch many teams 5-10 times a year -- which would be a lot -- maybe you're just catching them in a slump and not seeing them at their best, or even their average. Or maybe vice versa.

Ruf/Nek7

5/4/2011, 03:53 PM

I want to host a regional, but I hope that ESPN's projection is nowhere near correct because that would be absolutely absurd.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 04:04 PM

Add Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2011/05/stock-report-week-11-2/

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 04:49 PM

And.....in this one, we go to Florida:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5585

I'll let you guys decide which one doesn't fit!

Ardmore_Sooner

5/4/2011, 06:05 PM

Purke is still out this weekend from what I hear.

IndySooner

5/4/2011, 10:21 PM

bcolston15

5/5/2011, 12:00 AM

Tonight was a pretty good night for us. Arkansas lost to RPI #156 SE Missouri St. and we won a game we needed to win. I truly think that one of the five will get a regional (in order of probability):

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Arkansas
Rice

So, anytime any of those teams loses from here on out is good for us! That said, as we've said over and over, it's in our hands. Take care of business (8-2, 7-3 or better) from here on and we're going to be in good shape going into the conference tourney.

Of the teams listed we have the best RPI, most top 50 wins, and are second only to Rice in SOS.

If there is another host spot available in our region (how could there not be?) it's ours for the taking. If we don't get it we can blame ourselves.

IndySooner

5/5/2011, 09:46 AM

Of the teams listed we have the best RPI, most top 50 wins, and are second only to Rice in SOS.

If there is another host spot available in our region (how could there not be?) it's ours for the taking. If we don't get it we can blame ourselves.

Agreed. Texas & A&M are hosting, almost for sure. (A&M could blow it) Out west, the only for sure hosts are Oregon State and Arizona State. They don't have enough qualified hosts, either, as Fresno and Fullerton are both "potential" hosts, but neither has the resume we have. So, will the committee give the east 12 of the 16 regionals? I certainly hope not! My guess is we get one more in our region and they get one more out west.

bcolston15

5/5/2011, 10:02 AM

Agreed. Texas & A&M are hosting, almost for sure. (A&M could blow it) Out west, the only for sure hosts are Oregon State and Arizona State. They don't have enough qualified hosts, either, as Fresno and Fullerton are both "potential" hosts, but neither has the resume we have. So, will the committee give the east 12 of the 16 regionals? I certainly hope not! My guess is we get one more in our region and they get one more out west.

Something to consider, the commitee likes to cut travel costs when it's possible. If only A&M and Texas host that means you're shipping OU, OSU, and at least one of Rice, Arkansas and TCU way out (south)east, or way out west.

One more host spot in this region cuts that down considerably. Rice to A&M, Arkanas to OU and TCU to Texas.

IndySooner

5/5/2011, 10:07 AM

Something to consider, the commitee likes to cut travel costs when it's possible. If only A&M and Texas host that means you're shipping OU, OSU, and at least one of Rice, Arkansas and TCU way out (south)east, or way out west.

One more host spot in this region cuts that down considerably. Rice to A&M, Arkanas to OU and TCU to Texas.

Yep. Same with west coast, too. I don't think there's any doubt the region gets at least one more host. I don't think it's a done deal that it's only one, either. If both OU and OSU, for example, get hot at the end, both could host. Same with Rice and TCU.

IndySooner

5/5/2011, 10:26 AM

One thing I was just looking at that could be either good or bad for us. Southern Miss plays Rice the last series of the year. If one team sweeps, that would be really good for us. If it's a 2 of 3 situation, depending on what happens to them between now and then, it could mean trouble for them.

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out for sure. New Mexico is an RPI killer at this point. They're pretty much the same for our RPI as Arkansas-Little Rock.

bcolston15

5/5/2011, 10:41 AM

We want Southern Miss to win that series! They're going to host either way.

IndySooner

5/5/2011, 10:55 AM

We want Southern Miss to win that series! They're going to host either way.

Unless Rice sweeps them. They're only one spot ahead of us in the RPI. Our resumes would be very similar in that case and we'd have a better RPI. That also opens up the possibility of Rice and Southern Miss hosting, which probably leaves a 3rd Big 12 team out. So yes, we would want Southern Miss to win, and preferably sweep, that series. A few Rice losses along the way wouldn't hurt, either.

IndySooner

5/5/2011, 10:08 PM

Arkansas winning tonight = not in our best interest

They're going to pass us in the RPI this weekend.

Ardmore_Sooner

5/5/2011, 10:14 PM

Lose to SE Mizzou one night, beat #4 Florida the next.

That's college baseball at it's finest! haha

rysooner

5/6/2011, 10:35 AM

Lose to SE Mizzou one night, beat #4 Florida the next.

That's college baseball at it's finest! haha

Good ol weekday games, no telling what's going to happen.

IndySooner

5/6/2011, 10:46 PM

Arkansas & OSU winning is not good for us. A&M losing could be. Another loss to DBU and their hosting spot will be in jeopardy. It's a six-team race for probably two spots and we might be smack-dab in the middle at the end of the weekend the way it's shaping up. OSU has the pitching edge tomorrow and should go up 2-0. Arkansas could easily sweep Florida. Rice should sweep. None of this is good for us. We might need a sweep this weekend.

bcolston15

5/6/2011, 10:58 PM

The way it's shaping up, winning the next six isn't an option, it's a must.

And the next two against KU won't be easy, the pitching will be much more even tomorrow. Hopefully they continue to play little league defense. I'm not sure I have seen defense that shaky in a while, and i'm counting Western Illinois, Pine Bluff, Texas Southern, etc.

IndySooner

5/6/2011, 11:22 PM

The way it's shaping up, winning the next six isn't an option, it's a must.

Agreed. Amazingly, Arkansas was probably #6 in this group going into the weekend and now, after two days, they're at the top of the heap.

If it were today, Arkansas & A&M would be hosting and we would be battling Southern Miss for the 16th spot, probably losing that battle. Oklahoma State may pass us by the end of the weekend.

If nothing else, this is a fun race! I wish we had a few of those early games back, though.

bcolston15

5/6/2011, 11:31 PM

Agreed. Amazingly, Arkansas was probably #6 in this group going into the weekend and now, after two days, they're at the top of the heap.

If it were today, Arkansas & A&M would be hosting and we would be battling Southern Miss for the 16th spot, probably losing that battle. Oklahoma State may pass us by the end of the weekend.

If nothing else, this is a fun race! I wish we had a few of those early games back, though.

Arkansas should fade down the stretch. They still have three at South Carolina and three at home against Ole Miss. That's a 3-3 at best.

TCU will probably be out of the race after this weekend. (Good call on that Indy)

And we can always hope OSU drops off a 3-3 against Baylor and @ Tech. 4-2is more likely though.

I still can't wash the Sunday game of the OSU series. If we had that game we'd be 5-1 against OSU and TCU combined.

IndySooner

5/6/2011, 11:55 PM

Arkansas should fade down the stretch. They still have three at South Carolina and three at home against Ole Miss. That's a 3-3 at best.

I didn't think they'd beat Florida, either, but they've done that!

IndySooner

5/7/2011, 08:15 AM

Interesting, looking at Warren Nolan's predictor (http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2011/predictedrpi) if we finished 7-2 we would end up at 13th in the RPI. Now, he's been off a couple of spots on us, but in that case, we would finish 15th at the worst. If we're top 16 in the RPI we're a lock for a host position.

IndySooner

5/8/2011, 11:43 AM

RPI update this morning:

We have jumped A&M. That's good news, and we will really want to root against them the rest of the way. There's a chance we could steal a host spot from them.

Even after Arkansas taking 2 of 3 from Florida, they're only one spot and .001 ahead of us in the RPI. We need to pull for South Carolina next weekend against them and hope they fall off from here out.

Rice is climbing. Their SOS is better than ours from here on out and we need to at least match them, if not beat them, record-wise to stay ahead of them.

Southern Miss and Stetson are pretty much out of reach. We'll need to be BIG Southern Miss fans against Rice last weekend of the season. Stetson sweeping Georgia early is getting HUGE RPI points because of it.

OSU and TCU are quite a ways behind us and neither has good RPI boosting series left. If we go 6-2 from here on out, we'll stay ahead of both of them.

Interestingly, Warren Nolan's predictor has us going 6-2 from here on and if we do that, it says we'll end up at 13th in the RPI. If that's the case, we'll be enjoying post-season in Norman!

IndySooner

5/9/2011, 10:24 AM

So, after Sunday:

Rice jumped us in the RPI. That's not good at all. A&M dropped below us. Problem is they have Nebraska & Texas versus our New Mexico and Baylor. Arkansas is a spot ahead of us.

Essentially, the race for the final two spots in the southwest seems to be between Rice, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. TCU could be in the picture if all of us falter, but they just played their last good RPI series and they're behind us all. The question becomes whether we can steal one more from the southeast. I don't think it's out of the question, given that Miami have a tough road ahead and they were one of the projected spots by many. If it's two spots between those four, we'll need South Carolina to handle Arkansas this weekend, we'll need Southern Miss to handle Rice next weekend and we'll need Texas to handle A&M next weekend. Oh, and we'll need to take care of business (SEE: 3 of 4 at WORST this weekend, sweep preferable, and winning a series in Waco).

It's going to be tough. The worst part of it is that if we're on the road, we're probably headed to Fayetteville. That won't be fun at all.

IndySooner

5/11/2011, 02:28 PM

FYI, here are some updated regional projections. Not good for us this week. Mine will be up either tonight or tomorrow and will look VERY similar to what is out there. The RPI has not been good to us this week, as everyone we're competing against has similar resumes. It's really a toss-up at this point, but we need to be rooting against the likes of A&M, TCU, Rice, Arkansas and OSU hard!

http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/ncaa_baseball/id/6519997/conference-races-come-wire

http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1220264