War with China?

[MR2-Sooner86]

Saw this in another thread and figured I'd start a thread over it. I've heard it for years that one of these days we'll be forced into a war with China. Your thoughts?

Lets say there are U.S. and Chinese ships around Taiwan, there is a dispute, and ours and China's navy open fire on one another. This action then causes China to attack Taiwan and our military installations causing the United States to declare war on China.

This is just a hypothetical scenario as I'm sure there are other reasons China and the United States can get into war with one another but we'll go on this.

What do you think would happen?
How would the war play out?
Could the United States win?
If you think the United States and China will eventually go to war, what will be the reasons?

I've heard for years that we better get ready because us and China are going to go head to head sooner or later. Personally, I don't buy it. I think it's the same thing we heard with the Russians. That and China has really been working hard the past few years to improve their world image and work on their PR. Just look at when they hosted the Olympics. War is bad for their image and they already face human rights issues.

Anyway, IF war was declared between the two nations I see it playing out this way.

China's Air Force and Navy are laughable compared to ours. They have the better army by numbers but equipment is debatable.
I see China launching an all out offensive on Asia starting with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines trying to capture our bases so we don't have an offensive foothold. They then might try to get Russia's assistance and come in through Alaska because trying to cross the Pacific is suicide. They don't have the range to drop a nuke on Washington D.C. so that's out but they can nuke our bases and allies in the region.
As for the United States, I could see us launching a massive aerial campaign and just nuking several of their cities IF they brought nukes into the equation first. If not, we'd still launch an air attack that would hit many strategic sights in country.

What say you?

[NormanPride]

War can't really happen anymore. Nations depend on each other way too much. If China attacked us or vice-versa it would be disastrous for everyone on the planet for decades. The economy would collapse among other very bad things...

As for the hypothetical... I'm not sure. Perhaps try to hold another country hostage until they could create a navy/air force to combat ours? I know we'd have no shot on land in China, but they wouldn't be able to set foot out of their doorway without getting blasted to smithereens by the US Navy. ICBMs would be their only shot at actually damaging us unless they had a system-wide surprise attack to cut off communication like in some of those Clancy novels.

[AlboSooner]

Nukes are just aces in the hands of the big powers; nobody wants to really use nukes.

China just now is building its first ever nuclear warship carrier. China dreams of the day to be strong enough to overtake Taiwan by force. In terms of military might China is no where near the US. Yes they have a million soldiers, and they are disciplined, but they don't have the practice, the knowledge, the experience of the American solider.

You see the news of a landslide, or earthquake in China, and it takes the Chinese military weeks to get there, and to evacuate the people.

China has many people in the brink of starvation; it's part third world country and part first world country.

The biggest threat China poses to the US, is in cyber warfare. They are good at that, and are a formidable adversary.

Here's an interesting article by Robert Kaplan:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/06/how-we-would-fight-china/3959/

At the moment the challenges posed by a rising China may seem slight, even nonexistent. The U.S. Navy's warships have a collective "full-load displacement" of 2.86 million tons; the rest of the world's warships combined add up to only 3.04 million tons. The Chinese navy's warships have a full-load displacement of only 263,064 tons. The United States deploys twenty-four of the world's thirty-four aircraft carriers; the Chinese deploy none (a principal reason why they couldn't mount a rescue effort after the tsunami). The statistics go on.

[1890MilesToNorman]

I order from China Express, good food at a reasonable price.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Posted this in the other thread...



They are cornering the world on rare earths and controling the market. We have a few open markets remaining, by the ChiComs control what 85%...

They are investing in and signing contracts for oil and gas all over, even in the U.S...they may become a gatekeeper for oil/gas though more likely locking in contracts and locking up product...Oil will become much more expensive.

They are militarizing like crazy...new aircraft carrier and new carrier killing missiles...

They are cyber warring and developing a good means of diverting internet traffic...

Espionage, espionage, espionage...




I'll plead guilty to conspiracy theorist on China. I don't trust them or their motives. I can see the militarization as a means to forcefully take Taiwan and prevent the U.S. from intervening. I don't like what they are doing for key comodities by locking up supply. They are setting themselves as gatekeeper, and eventually if this does happen, I can see us going to war to open supplies the U.S. may need. If by technology or other means, we can circumvent the China grab, then war is not as likely.

Could we develop a way around a Chinese controlled or diverted internet? Perhaps.

To me it just seems as if a conflict with China is coming. I don't see them becoming our best buddy and an ally.

[MR2-Sooner86]

There are parts I can agree or agree some with you. I don't like their humans rights and I know people **** and moan about ours but we don't run over our own citizens with tanks in Time Square. We still really have no idea how many people died that day.

Anyway, I must disagree with this...


They are militarizing like crazy...new aircraft carrier and new carrier killing missiles...

They are decades away from having a navy or air force that even remotely resembles ours. The only way to catch up is our politicians sell them secrets *cough*clinton*cough*

[OhU1]

We may be forced to war if we miss an interest payment on the national debt and China has to foreclose on the note.

[Aldebaran]

I think we should embrace our future Chinese overlords as brothers (and sisters).

[MR2-Sooner86]

We may be forced to war if we miss an interest payment on the national debt and China has to foreclose on the note.

Oh we don't owe them that much...

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

[royalfan5]

Considering that China needs us to feed themselves, they will probably have to stay a little careful.

[Breadburner]

Why would China want to **** over their best customer.......

[delhalew]

If war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, the US and China would be at war thru default. Unless we ignore our treaty...and the fact that we have boots on the Dmz. China has similar arrangement with the North

[ouwasp]

I picked up a book at the Holland Hall book sale last yr entitled The Coming China Wars...been sitting on the bookshelf beside my bed for many months...I think I'll go get that out and look it over this evening...

[Okla-homey]

For the record, there has never been a war between two nations that both had KFC's.

I call it the "Colonel Sanders Effect."

It seems, KFC, unlike common religion, common language, economic ties, or ethnic similarities guarentees peace between states.

Therefore, if I am ever elected Emperor of the US, I will evict the UN from its fancy digs in NYC, pull the plug on the US State Department, and subsidize construction of KFC's in every nation on the planet.

PRC and the USA have KFC's.

[StoopTroup]

I would move the UN Building to Detroit to help the economy there and so that the idgets who come to our Country aren't there for a vacation. I suspect the fact that it is in NYC has them all there on Beef and Bourbon runs and they have little intention of helping the World solve their differences. Might as well have it in Detroit as any other Major City. They could go over to Canada and bet the Greyhounds in Windsor for kicks and then get back to work. Maybe they could all buy cars too....instead of use cabs and limos. NYC doesn't need all of them up there. We need to help NYC rid themselves of the useless visitors who a good number of them have no respect for us. Why should we cater to them by allowing them access to Manhatten and the NYSE/Nasdaq....etc...

They are more worthy of a visit to Detroit IMO.

If not Detroit....then El Paso.

[reevie]

Saw this in another thread and figured I'd start a thread over it. I've heard it for years that one of these days we'll be forced into a war with China. Your thoughts?

Lets say there are U.S. and Chinese ships around Taiwan, there is a dispute, and ours and China's navy open fire on one another. This action then causes China to attack Taiwan and our military installations causing the United States to declare war on China.

This is just a hypothetical scenario as I'm sure there are other reasons China and the United States can get into war with one another but we'll go on this.

What do you think would happen?
How would the war play out?
Could the United States win?
If you think the United States and China will eventually go to war, what will be the reasons?

I've heard for years that we better get ready because us and China are going to go head to head sooner or later. Personally, I don't buy it. I think it's the same thing we heard with the Russians. That and China has really been working hard the past few years to improve their world image and work on their PR. Just look at when they hosted the Olympics. War is bad for their image and they already face human rights issues.

Anyway, IF war was declared between the two nations I see it playing out this way.

China's Air Force and Navy are laughable compared to ours. They have the better army by numbers but equipment is debatable.
I see China launching an all out offensive on Asia starting with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines trying to capture our bases so we don't have an offensive foothold. They then might try to get Russia's assistance and come in through Alaska because trying to cross the Pacific is suicide. They don't have the range to drop a nuke on Washington D.C. so that's out but they can nuke our bases and allies in the region.
As for the United States, I could see us launching a massive aerial campaign and just nuking several of their cities IF they brought nukes into the equation first. If not, we'd still launch an air attack that would hit many strategic sights in country.

What say you?

You're not giving China enough credit for the modernization of their military over the past 20 years -especially the past 10. You should be more concerned of their capabilities.

I think both sides will avoid war until there is absolutely no other option. The forcing issue would probably be control of a sphere of influence, such as the South China Sea and it's shipping lanes. Indonesia and Vietnam are increasingly uncomfortable with China's increased activity and territorial claims, but they know they're not strong enough to overtly confront China. Our concern will be to keep those lanes open and that they're not threatened.

[StoopTroup]

Stopping China would need to be done in a Shock and Awe system on a scale much larger than Iraq. You're talking about disabling the entire Country's ability to organize their Armies and cause complete chaos ASAP. After that it would turn into a Korean War type 1950's type of War where they would try to drag it out much like the Vietcong in the late 60's and early 70's. Our Military would need to really change and dismantle China and possibly turn it into many smaller Countries like what occurred after the Cold War Russia.

I'm sure some of you current and recently retired Military Folks could put scenarios together better than mine. I'm just putting a bit together based on Wars I've seen in my lifetime and from history and folks I know and their stories, who participated in Korea, Vietnam and the Wars and Military Actions that occurred after them.

Even if we were to reconstruct China into smaller entities....imagine the mess. What it's taking to keep Iraq on track is nothing compared to what would need to take place in China and we'd need lots of help from allies all over the World to change the culture of the Chinese People.

I could be wrong too and it might cause a early strike reaction from the Russians and other Countries around the World who might jump to the conclusion that an Apocalyptic Type of War had begun.

Again maybe I'm wrong again and maybe what might happen would even be more unimaginable.

I'd like to think that our World wouldn't move towards such scenarios unless they were to fight over Food/Shelter and/or basic Human Needs due to a enviromental catastrophy.


Also...imagine how many of our other enemies would move towards any opportunity to gain an edge/better their position as a Modernized Country. North Korea and the South would go at it and we'd probably no be able to give them as much support as we currently do....however having that area stable would be militarily important too. No telling what could take place in places like the Suez and Panama Canals....satellites and even maybe disruptions within our own Country during all of it. I'd like to think all Americans would come together to protect our way of life and our Borders but hey....these days...you never know it seems.

[badger]

Mutually Assured Destruction means no major wars anymore (unless a crazy North Korean starts it). If anything it will be petty backstabbery and sanctions or holding off on paying for Democrats porkbarrelin'

[StoopTroup]

Mutually Assured Destruction means no major wars anymore (unless a crazy North Korean starts it). If anything it will be petty backstabbery and sanctions or holding off on paying for Democrats porkbarrelin'

I think we all used to think that was enough to keep things stable but look what Bin Laden was able to pull.

There seems to be new religious entities that can't see past their own lifetime, that it's good to be part of making our World a better place, rather than trying to create scenarios that cause Super Powers to react and then disagree about how to put an end to their terroristic plans to have a World that nobody can live in because they can't get everyone to believe that their Ideals are the only correct answer to truely following their religious texts.

Holy Wars seem to be things many knowledgeable and philosophical brains have all viewed as Apocolyptic and what we have faced in the last ten years truely registers as one of those events that could be a beginning towards such a scenario. I've always felt it was important to get Bin Laden and not make him a type of Prophet that would inspire more of his Ilk.

[SouthCarolinaSooner]

The Chinese are still trying to develop their FIRST carrier. They could never touch Taiwan (at least with ground or probably even air forces) because our navy is better than everyone else's in the world combined, much less just the Chinavy. Internally, I doubt China could sustain a major war. The coast may be growing rapidly, but the average Chinese still lives in abject poverty further inland. Add this massive imbalance to the situations in Tibet and Xinjiang, I doubt Beijing would provoke war.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

If not Detroit....then El Paso.

Welcome to Shreveport!

Home of the United Nations and NCAA football's Independence Bowl!

[sappstuf]

In 2020 China will have 30 million more men than women. A nice side effect of the one child policy...

What better way to kill off 30 million unneeded men than taking over Taiwan and controlling the South China Sea?

[SouthCarolinaSooner]

I think both sides will avoid war until there is absolutely no other option. The forcing issue would probably be control of a sphere of influence, such as the South China Sea and it's shipping lanes. Indonesia and Vietnam are increasingly uncomfortable with China's increased activity and territorial claims, but they know they're not strong enough to overtly confront China. Our concern will be to keep those lanes open and that they're not threatened.
PLAN is hopelessly obsolete, the only class that is even comparable to NATO/US is the Lanzhou Class destroyer. The PRC has the tech that it has managed to either buy, or steal from the rest of the world. Though, with their espionage activities in the US, one wonders if they are stealing more than they are buying.

[Blue]

If and when China ever takes over as the worlds superpower they will do it without firing a shot. Economic warfare.

[stoopified]

I would move the UN Building to Detroit to help the economy there and so that the idgets who come to our Country aren't there for a vacation. I suspect the fact that it is in NYC has them all there on Beef and Bourbon runs and they have little intention of helping the World solve their differences. Might as well have it in Detroit as any other Major City. They could go over to Canada and bet the Greyhounds in Windsor for kicks and then get back to work. Maybe they could all buy cars too....instead of use cabs and limos. NYC doesn't need all of them up there. We need to help NYC rid themselves of the useless visitors who a good number of them have no respect for us. Why should we cater to them by allowing them access to Manhatten and the NYSE/Nasdaq....etc...

They are more worthy of a visit to Detroit IMO.

If not Detroit....then El Paso.All this time I thought Coca-Cola was the key to peace. Maybe it is time to put the Coca back in the Cola....at least that sold in China.

[royalfan5]

In 2020 China will have 30 million more men than women. A nice side effect of the one child policy...

What better way to kill off 30 million unneeded men than taking over Taiwan and controlling the South China Sea?

But why get them killed off when they are needed to support their aging parents and grandparents?

[OUmillenium]

Of course there will be war. That will be the only way we can balance our debt with them is to go to war, win, then clear debts in a treaty.

[OUinFLA]

they already have a massive army inside our borders.


how many chinese restaurants in your town?

[Curly Bill]

they already have a massive army inside our borders.


how many chinese restaurants in your town?

Yeah, but all we gotta do is get the messicans to side with us - we'll win in a rout! :D

[TheHumanAlphabet]

New fuel for the fire...China causing gas prices to jack up...


Rare-Earth Ripple Effect Hits Gasoline Producers
By Ben Lefebvre 08 January, 2011The Wall Street Journal Online821 WordsCopyright 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The skyrocketing cost of rare-earth metals from China is pushing up the cost of gasoline production in the U.S., the latest sign of the wide-reaching impact of Beijing's decision to restrict exports of the minerals.
Prices for some of the chemicals refiners use to process gasoline have risen exponentially after China, which controls about 95% of the world's rare-earth supply, said it would reduce exports of the metals by 35% in 2011.
The increase could raise gasoline-production costs by about a penny a gallon and potentially lead some refiners to cut back on fuel production to protect their profits.
Rare earths are elements that go into high-tech batteries, television sets and military technology. Two of the most commonly used in the catalyst component of refiners' gasoline-making fluid catalytic cracking units, or FCCUs, are lanthanum and cerium, both of which more than tripled in price between the second and third quarters of 2010, according to Australian rare-earth supplier Lynas Corp. LTD.
Although rare earths account for only up to 4% of catalysts used in these units, their recent price increase has added as much as an extra 25% to catalyst costs, according to the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, a group representing the sector.
The increase comes as U.S. refiners are getting back on their feet financially after years of low demand and tight profit margins. Refiners such as Valero Energy Corp. and Sunoco Inc. sold some of their plants in 2010 to rid themselves of poor-performing assets.
"Any kind of increase, especially in today's markets and conditions, is significant," said NPRA President Charlie Drevna.
The increase could pinch refiners even more if crude-oil prices suddenly spike past $100 a barrel, as their process and raw-material costs would rise faster than they can pass them along to consumers, industry analysts said. A slower rise in crude prices would allow refiners some wiggle room in regaining their costs at the pump.
There are about 100 FCCUs in the U.S.'s 150 refineries, ranging in capacity from more than 100,000 barrels of oil a day to less than 10,000. The typical 50,000 barrel-a-day FCCU uses an average of seven tons a day of catalyst to help remove impurities from what will become gasoline and diesel, with the increase in rare-earth prices projected to cost its owner an extra $147,000 a month, said Bob Ludolph, principal petroleum refining consultant for Ludolph Technology Consultancy Inc. Catalysts are generally a refinery's second highest raw material cost after crude oil, Mr. Ludolph said.
That would add about a penny to the production cost of each gallon of gasoline made——not necessarily enough to make the consumer notice if it was passed straight to the pump, but enough to make some refiners think about scaling back production to protect their margins, according to an industry analyst.
Adding to the cost is the U.S. drive for cleaner-burning gasoline and diesel, which requires refiners to use more catalysts, according to the NPRA.
Refiners acknowledged that catalyst costs are growing but declined to elaborate. Valero, which is the largest U.S. independent refiner and operates 12 FCCUs ranging in capacity from 24,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil a day, will probably address the issue during its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, company spokesman Bill Day said.
"Catalyst costs are something that Valero is monitoring closely," Mr. Day said.
Tesoro Corp. said it has included the rising cost of rare earths in its 2011 budget but declined to say how much extra money it was paying for catalysts. The company, which runs five FCCUs, was seeking ways to mitigate the damage done to its bottom line, Tesoro spokesman Mike Marcy said.
"There may be ways to adjust catalyst blends to reduce the impact of cost increases," Mr. Marcy said.
How long rare-earth prices will continue to climb is in question as companies outside China hustle to make more of the metals available.
U.S.-based Molycorp Inc. said it plans to spend $531 million to mine and process rare earths from a Mojave desert mine that used to produce the material until it was shut in 2002 because of environmental-pollution concerns and low rare-earth prices. Lynas Corp. said it plans to start mining rare earths from Mount Weld in western Australia for expected production in the third quarter of 2011.
Until those projects come online, rare-earth prices will likely continue to increase, however. Chemical companies, which supply catalysts to refiners, have started indexing the cost of their product to rare-earth price movements, said Ed Morrison, president of consulting firm Global Catalyst & Process Technology Management PLLC.
"They are passing the price on to the oil refiner," Mr. Morrison said.

[Midtowner]

New fuel for the fire...China causing gas prices to jack up...

Actually, this will end up creating jobs in the U.S. as this'll make mining these minerals stateside financially feasible again.

Kind of good if you happen to live in an area near rare earth deposits.

[OUMallen]

Also accelerates our current transition into natural gas.

[Midtowner]

Also accelerates our current transition into natural gas.

That too.

In short, good for states with natural resources (like us). Bad for states without.

This should be huge in California as they have some of the world's largest rare earth deposits. China can have Taiwan. I'm not ready to toss aside a few million American lives so that some foreign country which hasn't really helped us in our other war efforts can remain sovereign.

If Taiwan had played a significant role in Afghanistan or Iraq, I might feel differently, but I'm tired of U.S. soldiers going to die for countries who would never repay the favor.

[GDC]

China conducts first test flight of a stealth plane:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12159571

[SouthCarolinaSooner]

China conducts first test flight of a stealth plane:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12159571
Oh no only 13 years behind :eek: