3rdgensooner
11/5/2010, 10:49 AM
Letterman Defeats Leno! Stewart Defeats Both! (http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/11/05/letterman-defeats-leno-stewart-defeats-both/)
Conan O'Brien's new talk show debuts on TBS next Monday, which is sure to raise memories of the whole ugly scene last January when NBC threw over O'Brien at 11:35 p.m. for Jay Leno. (As will the timely publication the same day of Bill Carter's Jaypocalypse dirt-disher, The War for Late Night.)
But whatever you think of how that played out, NBC at least had a plan to stop the bleeding. It would pay Conan off, Jay would go back to the Tonight Show, and whatever PR fallout there was, at least Jay would do better than Conan and would beat David Letterman again. At least.
Turns out there's a level below "at least." (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/live-feed/letterman-beats-leno-measures-35765)
Jay, as I noted last week (http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/10/29/weekend-reading-how-jay-beat-conan-and-nbc/), has lately been finishing below Conan's ratings in the 18 to 49 demographic (the rating on which ad rates are based). He's been losing ground to Dave too, who last week beat Jay for the first time since the rematch in both 18-49 and overall viewers.
Well, we're seven months into the Jaystoration—roughly the point at which NBC defenestrated Conan—and as Jay says, this business is all about whether you make the numbers, so I guess we can expect NBC to dump Jay in [looks at watch]...
I kid! That will totally never happen. Because Jay just needs time for audiences to discover him in his new time slot. He has so much room to grow!
[Update: OK, so the silver lining for NBC? They may be in no better shape at 11:35, but thank goodness The Jay Leno Show is out of the 10 p.m. hour—those scripted dramas may be more expensive, but at least they pull higher ratings! Wait... what? (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/with-conan-on-the-way-leno-a-late-night-loser-to-letterman/) (The last touch that would make this whole situation perfect would be for Jay's camp to start blaming their lousy lead-ins.)]
In any case, Dave may not have so much to crow about either, because it turns out that last month, Jon Stewart's Daily Show beat both his and Jay's shows in 18-to-49 viewers, the first time any late night show other than those two has won the month for at least a decade. (Stewart does not compete directly against with show, airing at 11 p.m., but that can't be much consolation.)
An excerpt from the release sent by Comedy Central follows. One thought: looking down it, it may be surprising how relatively small are the late-night audiences that determine where they make their ad money, and how little difference in numbers separates many of the shows. The difference between Dave and Jimmy Fallon, say—400,000 viewers in the demo.
And one more thought: how will Conan's entry affect all this? Late-night is not a zero-sum game; Conan may get viewers that are not watching any other talk show. But surely some of his viewers will come from other 11:00-midnight competition—some of whom, perhaps, went to David Letterman in the meantime after Conan left The Tonight Show. What irony if, after all this, Conan O'Brien ends up helping Jay Leno out.
Here are those October numbers: (http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/11/05/letterman-defeats-leno-stewart-defeats-both/)
Conan O'Brien's new talk show debuts on TBS next Monday, which is sure to raise memories of the whole ugly scene last January when NBC threw over O'Brien at 11:35 p.m. for Jay Leno. (As will the timely publication the same day of Bill Carter's Jaypocalypse dirt-disher, The War for Late Night.)
But whatever you think of how that played out, NBC at least had a plan to stop the bleeding. It would pay Conan off, Jay would go back to the Tonight Show, and whatever PR fallout there was, at least Jay would do better than Conan and would beat David Letterman again. At least.
Turns out there's a level below "at least." (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/blogs/live-feed/letterman-beats-leno-measures-35765)
Jay, as I noted last week (http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/10/29/weekend-reading-how-jay-beat-conan-and-nbc/), has lately been finishing below Conan's ratings in the 18 to 49 demographic (the rating on which ad rates are based). He's been losing ground to Dave too, who last week beat Jay for the first time since the rematch in both 18-49 and overall viewers.
Well, we're seven months into the Jaystoration—roughly the point at which NBC defenestrated Conan—and as Jay says, this business is all about whether you make the numbers, so I guess we can expect NBC to dump Jay in [looks at watch]...
I kid! That will totally never happen. Because Jay just needs time for audiences to discover him in his new time slot. He has so much room to grow!
[Update: OK, so the silver lining for NBC? They may be in no better shape at 11:35, but thank goodness The Jay Leno Show is out of the 10 p.m. hour—those scripted dramas may be more expensive, but at least they pull higher ratings! Wait... what? (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/with-conan-on-the-way-leno-a-late-night-loser-to-letterman/) (The last touch that would make this whole situation perfect would be for Jay's camp to start blaming their lousy lead-ins.)]
In any case, Dave may not have so much to crow about either, because it turns out that last month, Jon Stewart's Daily Show beat both his and Jay's shows in 18-to-49 viewers, the first time any late night show other than those two has won the month for at least a decade. (Stewart does not compete directly against with show, airing at 11 p.m., but that can't be much consolation.)
An excerpt from the release sent by Comedy Central follows. One thought: looking down it, it may be surprising how relatively small are the late-night audiences that determine where they make their ad money, and how little difference in numbers separates many of the shows. The difference between Dave and Jimmy Fallon, say—400,000 viewers in the demo.
And one more thought: how will Conan's entry affect all this? Late-night is not a zero-sum game; Conan may get viewers that are not watching any other talk show. But surely some of his viewers will come from other 11:00-midnight competition—some of whom, perhaps, went to David Letterman in the meantime after Conan left The Tonight Show. What irony if, after all this, Conan O'Brien ends up helping Jay Leno out.
Here are those October numbers: (http://tunedin.blogs.time.com/2010/11/05/letterman-defeats-leno-stewart-defeats-both/)