Are we in trouble this Saturday?

[soonerboy_odanorth]

What does Vegas know, that we don't?

I was surprised at the low opening spread of 6. I expected that to draw heavy betting on OU and for the spread to grow.

Instead, it now sits at 3 1/2, so people have laid their money on aTm.

I don't get it. I know we look shaky on the road. But aTm has done squat. They have only looked good against the two worst teams in the Big XII. We're deeper, and probably more talented top to bottom. I think even aTm fans would agree. (And Aggie, I'm not saying aTm doesn't have considerable talent in key positions. Just that OU has more across the board.) And I do not expect that we will give the ball away 3 times near or in the red zone like we did against Mizzou. Mizzou has a better D than aTm.

So what is it? What am I missing?

FWIW, I was feeling that we could open this one up early and finish 14 - 17 pts better.

OU 38
aTm 21

[Dwight]

If you mean "aTm" when you say 'we', then yes. :D

[yermom]

it took a historically prolific offense for us to win there convincingly

there is a bit of pucker going on anytime we go down there

[sooner59]

I'm gonna be there for the third time (06, 08, and 10). We'll be fine. :D

[oumartin]

if the coaches remember to bring their balls we will be fine. Otherwise it will be a tight one.

[slh1234]

One thing for sure, the only team in the country that has a chance to beat OU this weekend is aTm.

We're in danger every weekend. That's what makes games fun. (Wow! I'm in an intolerant mood this evening!)

[aero]

Maybe our 4th quarter keystone cop exploits and our stellar recent road record has something to do with the spread

[sozo]

Vegas only knows what the betting public thinks!They are in the business of making money not breaking down teams.

[Leroy Lizard]

One thing for sure, the only team in the country that has a chance to beat OU this weekend is aTm.

As is my wont, I am trying hard to argue against this comment. But I just can't!

[Crucifax Autumn]

Yep. all this means is that all the betting action was going one way and they need to even out the bets.

[CatfishSooner]

we r F'd!

[Crucifax Autumn]

DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!

[Sooner Eclipse]

I think people see that aTm has replaced their QB with positive results in the last game and think they can make money off of it. Money was heavy on the other side and the line adjusted because of it.

We will see if that proves true. I'm betting our defense is not a generous at Tech's.

[SoonerLB]

People in other parts of the country watch espn, thus we get no respect. ;)

[soonercastor]

well seriously though, looking at what we've done this year; why would the spread be higher? And like people pointed out, the line reflects the general public's perception of the game not Vegas'

With that said, I think we blow 'em out

[sendbaht]

plus they have that 12 guy.....but we will be fine with OUr 11.

[deweydw]

Maybe it's because Aggies avg 34 points a game. And OU avg 36 a game.

[ashley]

My prediction is that if we don't turn the ball over so their crowd gets into it and their team then thinks they can win, we will be ok. Playng on the road, turnovers are a killer.

[Whet]

As Curly Fine would say:
"Nah, we'll moiderate 'em!"
"Yuk, yuk, yuk!"

[AggieGirl2005]

I'll play devil's advocate here, since you asked. :)

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket. This is just Tannehill's second start but he's been playing in this atmosphere for 3 years as a WR so he's not as easily rattled as a second-start would normally be. Plus he knows the routes and offensive scheme like the back of his hand. Your pass D isn't stellar at 83rd, so as long as Tannehill doesn't implode (and our o-line holds up - big IF there, see the Mizzou game), he might have a good day. I think you guys will either blitz more or have your DBs cheat up to make up for the thin D-line, and so our RB Jeff Fuller may be able to take advantage.

Your QB as you know is ridiculously awesome (2nd in FBS in y/g and that's after facing 2 of the top 10 pass Ds!) but he's a little jumpy when there's pressure. I think the unpredictability of our 3-4 defense along with those monsters Von Miller and Damontre Moore may be particularly effective against him. Dunno though. Our pass D isn't great at 101st, but we've faced three of the top 10 passing offenses, so it's going to follow that we'll have more yards thrown against us. He's still going to have another stellar day, I'm sure. I think Broyles is going to shred our backfield but we held Blackmon to significantly fewer yards below his average so who knows. Not so sure about your RBs as we have a pretty good rush D, 8th nationally.

Anyways, you guys are much better than us, but being on the road and the way our particular teams happen to match up esp with your injuries, I think it looks to be closer than you guys would expect. If the game were in your house, or if your d-line wasn't so thin, the line would be much, much different.

Good luck - but not too much luck! I think it could be a good game if you guys don't blow us out in the first 5 minutes. As long as we survive that first bit, I think we're good.


EDIT: I meant to say WR, Jeff Fuller, not RB.

[Sooner Brewcrew]

Always have to be weary of the 12th man even when aTm has a sucky team. and couple that with the way OU plays away from Norman and there's your spread.

[C&CDean]

if the players remember to not turn it over 3 times in the red zone we will be fine. Otherwise it will be a tight one.

What you really meant to say, right?

[Sooner98]

Are we in trouble this Saturday?

Is the game being played anywhere other than Norman, OK?

Then the answer is "yes".

[KantoSooner]

Aggiegirl2005 has it about right, in my opinion <I know I'm supposed to attack her, but find nothing but Spockian logic in her comments.>

Once again, it's going to come down to our D line play. If the interior line guys acquit themselves well, OU will roll. If not, then it's going to be a long night.

[Leroy Lizard]

I'll play devil's advocate here, since you asked. :)

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket. This is just Tannehill's second start but he's been playing in this atmosphere for 3 years as a WR so he's not as easily rattled as a second-start would normally be. Plus he knows the routes and offensive scheme like the back of his hand. Your pass D isn't stellar at 83rd, so as long as Tannehill doesn't implode (and our o-line holds up - big IF there, see the Mizzou game), he might have a good day. I think you guys will either blitz more or have your DBs cheat up to make up for the thin D-line, and so our RB Jeff Fuller may be able to take advantage.

Your QB as you know is ridiculously awesome (2nd in FBS in y/g and that's after facing 2 of the top 10 pass Ds!) but he's a little jumpy when there's pressure. I think the unpredictability of our 3-4 defense along with those monsters Von Miller and Damontre Moore may be particularly effective against him. Dunno though. Our pass D isn't great at 101st, but we've faced three of the top 10 passing offenses, so it's going to follow that we'll have more yards thrown against us. He's still going to have another stellar day, I'm sure. I think Broyles is going to shred our backfield but we held Blackmon to significantly fewer yards below his average so who knows. Not so sure about your RBs as we have a pretty good rush D, 8th nationally.

Anyways, you guys are much better than us, but being on the road and the way our particular teams happen to match up esp with your injuries, I think it looks to be closer than you guys would expect. If the game were in your house, or if your d-line wasn't so thin, the line would be much, much different.

Good luck - but not too much luck! I think it could be a good game if you guys don't blow us out in the first 5 minutes. As long as we survive that first bit, I think we're good.

Pretty rational.

[jagvocate]

I wish AggieGirl could have been coaching defense under Franchione

[OU_Sooners75]

Maybe it's because Aggies avg 34 points a game. And OU avg 36 a game.


LMFAO....yeah....this is the reason...right here!
:gary:

[OU_Sooners75]

What you really meant to say, right?


Not at all. I think he said he wanted you to bain him! :pop:

[OU_Sooners75]

One thing aggiegirl....

Broyles is no Blackmon. Blackmon is used as a deep threat, that is how he gets his yards. Broyles gets the bulk of his yards in short routes and gains a lot of yards after the catch.

However, your dbs cheat up on broyles and our other WRs, we will go over the top of them, just like we did against Colorado.

im not really too worried about our Oline against your DL. I am more worried about our OLine vs whatever blitz package is thrown at them!

[PDXsooner]

if the coaches remember to bring their balls we will be fine. Otherwise it will be a tight one.

What does this mean?

[85sooners]

:eek:

[PalmBeachSooner]

Maybe our 4th quarter keystone cop exploits and our stellar recent road record has something to do with the spread

^^This^^

[Landthief 1972]

Statistically speaking (http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-footbl/archive/2010_scouting_report.html), we're fairly evenly matched in a lot of areas with them (ranked 20 apart or less in a lot of categories)...but the stats are skewed since they put in the new QB. Who's to say if they turnover ratio would be that bad with the new guy under center? Have they faced good run offenses that would justify that high run D ranking? Was Tannenhill's game a fluke? Sometimes new guys come in and have a great first game on adrenaline and then have a serious letdown the next game. I wouldn't bet on this game to save my life. We rarely blow them out in the Tacklebox.

[oudivesherpa]

Vegas only knows what the betting public thinks!They are in the business of making money not breaking down teams.

True. Vegas only tries to balance it's betting lines, but initial betting lines are based on power ratings plus homefield advantage(normally teams thave a 3 point homefield advantage). OU along with Bosie State and Oregon have the strongest homefield advantage in CF at 6 points, plus the difference in the power ratings. But according to the experts OU has a rare negative away factor of minus three points. On a neutral field OU would be a 9 point favorite over A&M, at College Station they are +3 and at home in Norman they would be +15. This is based on past history of OU being a great home team and a very poor road team. Bottom line, never bet on OU away from Owen field.

[StoopTroup]

http://www.sportsbetting-sportsbooks.com/logo-B.jpg

[soonerboy_odanorth]

I'll play devil's advocate here, since you asked. :)

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket. This is just Tannehill's second start but he's been playing in this atmosphere for 3 years as a WR so he's not as easily rattled as a second-start would normally be. Plus he knows the routes and offensive scheme like the back of his hand. Your pass D isn't stellar at 83rd, so as long as Tannehill doesn't implode (and our o-line holds up - big IF there, see the Mizzou game), he might have a good day. I think you guys will either blitz more or have your DBs cheat up to make up for the thin D-line, and so our RB Jeff Fuller may be able to take advantage.

Your QB as you know is ridiculously awesome (2nd in FBS in y/g and that's after facing 2 of the top 10 pass Ds!) but he's a little jumpy when there's pressure. I think the unpredictability of our 3-4 defense along with those monsters Von Miller and Damontre Moore may be particularly effective against him. Dunno though. Our pass D isn't great at 101st, but we've faced three of the top 10 passing offenses, so it's going to follow that we'll have more yards thrown against us. He's still going to have another stellar day, I'm sure. I think Broyles is going to shred our backfield but we held Blackmon to significantly fewer yards below his average so who knows. Not so sure about your RBs as we have a pretty good rush D, 8th nationally.

Anyways, you guys are much better than us, but being on the road and the way our particular teams happen to match up esp with your injuries, I think it looks to be closer than you guys would expect. If the game were in your house, or if your d-line wasn't so thin, the line would be much, much different.

Good luck - but not too much luck! I think it could be a good game if you guys don't blow us out in the first 5 minutes. As long as we survive that first bit, I think we're good.


EDIT: I meant to say WR, Jeff Fuller, not RB.


Nice perspective. Thanks AggieGirl!

[AggieGirl2005]

Nice perspective. Thanks AggieGirl!

Talking about football...the pleasure is all mine :)

[C&CDean]

What does this mean?

That marty's retahded?

[goingoneight]

Road Game.
Fourth Quarter.
Stats.

There's your spread reasoning. This team has to regain it's confidence away from home to compete for championships ever again. We've got a good enough team to roll them, we've just got to tap into whatever makes us the best team in college football at home and bring it with us on the road. I trust even if we melt down this weekend that Stoops knows this is a problem that needs to be solved. Even if he did blow smoke at the media for asking about it.

[PDXsooner]

That marty's retahded?

gotcha. I am thankful every day that Bob Stoops is the coach of OU.

[Mad Dog Madsen]

My prediction is that if we don't turn the ball over so their crowd gets into it and their team then thinks they can win, we will be ok. Playng on the road, turnovers are a killer.

Yeah, and if we throw the ball and don't catch it that's a killer too. Oh yeah, and if we don't tackle that's another killer. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[stoopified]

NO

[sozo]

True. Vegas only tries to balance it's betting lines, but initial betting lines are based on power ratings plus homefield advantage(normally teams thave a 3 point homefield advantage). OU along with Bosie State and Oregon have the strongest homefield advantage in CF at 6 points, plus the difference in the power ratings. But according to the experts OU has a rare negative away factor of minus three points. On a neutral field OU would be a 9 point favorite over A&M, at College Station they are +3 and at home in Norman they would be +15. This is based on past history of OU being a great home team and a very poor road team. Bottom line, never bet on OU away from Owen field.Thanks,I didn't know that.

[bmjlr]

I'll play devil's advocate here, since you asked. :)

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket. This is just Tannehill's second start but he's been playing in this atmosphere for 3 years as a WR so he's not as easily rattled as a second-start would normally be. Plus he knows the routes and offensive scheme like the back of his hand. Your pass D isn't stellar at 83rd, so as long as Tannehill doesn't implode (and our o-line holds up - big IF there, see the Mizzou game), he might have a good day. I think you guys will either blitz more or have your DBs cheat up to make up for the thin D-line, and so our RB Jeff Fuller may be able to take advantage.

Your QB as you know is ridiculously awesome (2nd in FBS in y/g and that's after facing 2 of the top 10 pass Ds!) but he's a little jumpy when there's pressure. I think the unpredictability of our 3-4 defense along with those monsters Von Miller and Damontre Moore may be particularly effective against him. Dunno though. Our pass D isn't great at 101st, but we've faced three of the top 10 passing offenses, so it's going to follow that we'll have more yards thrown against us. He's still going to have another stellar day, I'm sure. I think Broyles is going to shred our backfield but we held Blackmon to significantly fewer yards below his average so who knows. Not so sure about your RBs as we have a pretty good rush D, 8th nationally.

Anyways, you guys are much better than us, but being on the road and the way our particular teams happen to match up esp with your injuries, I think it looks to be closer than you guys would expect. If the game were in your house, or if your d-line wasn't so thin, the line would be much, much different.

Good luck - but not too much luck! I think it could be a good game if you guys don't blow us out in the first 5 minutes. As long as we survive that first bit, I think we're good.


EDIT: I meant to say WR, Jeff Fuller, not RB.

WTF? How did such a knowledgeable and nice post get through the filter! :D Good post and perspective. Nice to see once in a while.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

Road Game.
Fourth Quarter.
Stats.

There's your spread reasoning. This team has to regain it's confidence away from home to compete for championships ever again. We've got a good enough team to roll them, we've just got to tap into whatever makes us the best team in college football at home and bring it with us on the road. I trust even if we melt down this weekend that Stoops knows this is a problem that needs to be solved. Even if he did blow smoke at the media for asking about it.

But see, I don't think he did blow smoke at them. 2005 and 2009 were true rebuilding years. WE (the fans) didn't want them to be, but they were. WE want to stockpile talent like we used to... but that's really not possible anymore given scholie limits and good media exposure even for second tier teams like.. you guessed it.. Boise St. Both years came at the end of some pretty spectacular runs. And a healthy '09 I believe gets us three of those road wins back... 1pt BYU, 1pt Miami, and 7 pt Nebraska.

Excluding bowls, which are crap shoots for all teams (it's invariably champ vs. champ), you know what our away from home record including neutrals is during the course of '06, '07', '08, and this year so far?

17-6.

That's pretty danged good considering it always includes your #1 rivalry and also conference championship games. And yeah, most programs would take that over 4 years.

[ThinMan]

A&M replaced their QB and he had a record performance against the 119th ranked pass defense so now Vegas is expecting a lot of retarded Aggie fans who think they are suddenly unbeatable to put down heavily for the Aggs.

[sooner59]

One thing for sure, the only team in the country that has a chance to beat OU this weekend is aTm.

We're in danger every weekend. That's what makes games fun. (Wow! I'm in an intolerant mood this evening!)

I would argue that OU also has a chance to beat OU. Its happened before.

[VA Sooner]

Heck of a post, AggieGirl. Pretty accurate in my viewpoint.

Will see how this rotation of 4th string TE and 2nd string RT works as defensive tackles. Rotating DE Macon is our best option. Pulls in the strongside linebacker (hopefully Nelson) in more often as the Jack but perhaps a good thing.

Q and Jefferson will be cheating up but I think our corners are getting valuable reps back there and improving as time goes on. I'm sure Tannehill and Fuller will give us a run for our money... should be a good game.

I really want to see how Stoops and Company's adjustments to the D-line work out... I do wish they were all about 50 pounds heavier.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Anyone know if it is a Maroon Out or a White Out this weekend??

That and the 12th man and their new QB - We're doomed!

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket.

Welcome to the board AggieGirl.

You must have been in the OU Alumni luncheon today at my employer's because this is exactly what Coach Merv (Johnson) who was our guest speaker said. Our tackles are really weak because the replacements are young. We lost a lot of depth and that puts more pressure on the ends to rush, and allows the offense not to worry as much on the middle of the line/rush. We need to step up here.

Merv also said our kicking game stunk (who new ;) ) and hoped it didn't come down to kicking. He also said we stunk at Mizzou. He said the coaches have planned well and the next 4 games will be bears and we need to take it one game at a time. This could be a special team with a special record or we could have a mediocre record. Thoough he did say he expected us to send Nebraska packing with a loss in the Big 12 CCG.

[trwxxa]

Anyone know if it is a Maroon Out or a White Out this weekend??

That and the 12th man and their new QB - We're doomed!


Just a regular game. Maroon Out is the 20th against Nebbish.

[Leroy Lizard]

WTF? How did such a knowledgeable and nice post get through the filter! :D Good post and perspective. Nice to see once in a while.

And from an Aggie!

[Leroy Lizard]

Welcome to the board AggieGirl.

You must have been in the OU Alumni luncheon today at my employer's because this is exactly what Coach Merv (Johnson) who was our guest speaker said.

Boys, sounds like we got one of them thar plagiarizers on our board.

[StoopTroup]

Boys, sounds like we got one of them thar plagiarizers on our board.

LMFAO!

[Tulsa_Fireman]

Question.

If we're not going to get gut push from the D tackle spot, why in the hell would Venables roll the safeties and/or corners UP?

Edge pressure from the end, gap responsibility from the tackle, LBs staying home and honest, and steady Cover 2 with CBs in 10 yard soft. Set the coverage, keep the LBs in space, and let COVERAGE generate pressure. Make the kid go three deep in the check, keep it underneath, and let him make mistakes with his eyes. And with the LBs honest, you can still address the run.

There's no reason on earth why you'd push a press zone when you CAN'T get pressure. Not unless you're blitzing like crazy and I just don't see that happening unless we get desperate.

[nebraskaSOONER]

if the coaches remember to bring their balls we will be fine. Otherwise it will be a tight one.

I very much agree with you, they need to blitz more and play to win, not play to NOT lose. They will be fine if Landry shows confidence and doesn't drift into that "deer in the headlight" look like he did against Miz from time to time. I think OU will be fine but yes still a butt pucker event. BOOMER!

[ThinMan]

If you don't stop the run, you can't blitz.

[mightysooner]

It's because we suck on the road and we're flipping small offensive players over to D-line trying to plug the dyke.

[tooslow]

Yes. We are in trouble. :(

[redblood]

yes

[Kadosh]

Clearly stoops is offended that we are asked to play away games that he would rather throw the game. So freaking annoying.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

I'll play devil's advocate here, since you asked. :)

Your d-line is hurting pretty badly from injuries, and you're plugging the hole with smaller guys. Macon, DE, for example is only 250 lbs and they've moved him to DT. That's either going to let our RB Cyrus Gray (who imo is better than Christine Michael, who's out with a broken tibia) have a better day than he usually would or let Tannehill have more time in the pocket. This is just Tannehill's second start but he's been playing in this atmosphere for 3 years as a WR so he's not as easily rattled as a second-start would normally be. Plus he knows the routes and offensive scheme like the back of his hand. Your pass D isn't stellar at 83rd, so as long as Tannehill doesn't implode (and our o-line holds up - big IF there, see the Mizzou game), he might have a good day. I think you guys will either blitz more or have your DBs cheat up to make up for the thin D-line, and so our RB Jeff Fuller may be able to take advantage.

Your QB as you know is ridiculously awesome (2nd in FBS in y/g and that's after facing 2 of the top 10 pass Ds!) but he's a little jumpy when there's pressure. I think the unpredictability of our 3-4 defense along with those monsters Von Miller and Damontre Moore may be particularly effective against him. Dunno though. Our pass D isn't great at 101st, but we've faced three of the top 10 passing offenses, so it's going to follow that we'll have more yards thrown against us. He's still going to have another stellar day, I'm sure. I think Broyles is going to shred our backfield but we held Blackmon to significantly fewer yards below his average so who knows. Not so sure about your RBs as we have a pretty good rush D, 8th nationally.

Anyways, you guys are much better than us, but being on the road and the way our particular teams happen to match up esp with your injuries, I think it looks to be closer than you guys would expect. If the game were in your house, or if your d-line wasn't so thin, the line would be much, much different.

Good luck - but not too much luck! I think it could be a good game if you guys don't blow us out in the first 5 minutes. As long as we survive that first bit, I think we're good.


EDIT: I meant to say WR, Jeff Fuller, not RB.


All Hail AggieGirl2005!

You nailed it. And it's pretty clear your team last night was 2 touchdowns better than us, not the other way around. And regarding line play in particular, your team does have better assortment of talent right now.

Congrats on your win last night!

[sooner59]

I'm gonna be there for the third time (06, 08, and 10). We'll be fine. :D

Well....I screwed the pooch.

[soonerboy_odanorth]

Well....I screwed the pooch.


No Kidding! Now I want you to apologize for not catching that pass on the fake field goal, for missing the kick, and for not opening a hole for the running back to run through on fourth and short at the goal line... not just once, but twice!

Shame on you sooner59... SHAME!